Shorex bubble?

[Hawaiidan]

On 2/15/2021 at 10:11 AM, sofietucker said:

Sure, if they jack the prices way up--which tourists will pay, if there are no other options. "We came all this way, so..."

The market dictates the price....  When it cost's X to run a  tour or a cruise or a bubblegum factory you will have to charge X+40% to stay in business.   Its pure survival not greed.   People have to eat   None of the companies is in business as a charity.    Severe restrictions and lock down rules etc. will shortly, I believe, give way to the prospect of  economy health.    You can only loose  so much for so long before you go out of business.   The vaccine needed is $$$ for the world economy.

[sofietucker]

22 minutes ago, Hawaiidan said:

The market dictates the price....  When it cost's X to run a  tour or a cruise or a bubblegum factory you will have to charge X+40% to stay in business.   Its pure survival not greed.   People have to eat   None of the companies is in business as a charity.    Severe restrictions and lock down rules etc. will shortly, I believe, give way to the prospect of  economy health.    You can only loose  so much for so long before you go out of business.   The vaccine needed is $$$ for the world economy.

We're in complete agreement. I was responding to the question whether tour companies could afford to run, in this case, x number of buses to a single/only-allowable  site, and therefore whether pax would be willing to pay for it. "Could afford" meaning bus rentals, gas, drivers, etc.--plus be able to earn at least a minimal profit. (If they only will break even, why bother?) 

[Shawnino]

24 minutes ago, Hawaiidan said:

The market dictates the price....  When it cost's X to run a  tour or a cruise or a bubblegum factory you will have to charge X+40% to stay in business.   Its pure survival not greed.   People have to eat   None of the companies is in business as a charity.    Severe restrictions and lock down rules etc. will shortly, I believe, give way to the prospect of  economy health.    You can only loose  so much for so long before you go out of business.   The vaccine needed is $$$ for the world economy.

 

Be that as it may, it's going to be a long time before businesses recover. GDP growth in good times in a Western country is 2-4%. If 10-20% of the population remains totally paranoid, it's going to take years for the 80-90% who remain to pick up their slack.

 

Cruise companies keep going on about how bookings are 'stronger than ever'. Few are breaking down new bookings vs shifted bookings vs assignations of FCCs. The stock market is supposed to be a forward-looking vehicle, and cruise lines are about 50% off pre-Wuhan Virus highs. (E.G. NCLH was touching $60, now it's roughly $30.) 

[pinotlover]

I viewed the question in another light. A friend shared an email he had received from a French tour guide.

 

The guide’s email said they are waiting on the government’s guidelines for tourists for this summer. The company has eight (8) passenger vans. They don’t currently know (1) how many they’ll be allowed to put in each van. Two, eight, or somewhere in between. (2) They don’t know if they’ll be allowed to have mixed groups, or if everyone will have to be “ together “ from one party. Likewise, the wineries don’t currently know if they can book mixed group tours and tastings . Everything is still up in the air.

 

The cost of the van for the day won’t change, it’ll be 600 Euros. Just how many will be splitting that cost is in question.

 

Capacity restrictions could lead to equipment shortages. My earlier response was that the operators will not go out and procure additional vans to solve what is viewed as a short term ( probably 1year) infrastructure shortage. People just won’t be able to book tours. 
 

In worst case, if tourism isn’t resumed this year, the tourism infrastructure will be so destroyed by bankruptcies, shortages will take years to recover. The European Tourism Boards are pleading with the government to answer these questions quickly, before it becomes too late and they lose the bookings. Per one article, France’s tourism industry typically receives 48 Billion Euros from US citizens alone every year. They had lost nearly all of that in 2020 and are desperate.
 

All but King Anthony and his disciples can grasp the issues at hand.

[Hawaiidan]

2 hours ago, Shawnino said:

 

Be that as it may, it's going to be a long time before businesses recover. GDP growth in good times in a Western country is 2-4%. If 10-20% of the population remains totally paranoid, it's going to take years for the 80-90% who remain to pick up their slack.

 

Cruise companies keep going on about how bookings are 'stronger than ever'. Few are breaking down new bookings vs shifted bookings vs assignations of FCCs. The stock market is supposed to be a forward-looking vehicle, and cruise lines are about 50% off pre-Wuhan Virus highs. (E.G. NCLH was touching $60, now it's roughly $30.) 

This is true....however consider than many people are after 2 years of not traveling anywhere are sitting on ever growing piles of  disposable cash they can not spend.    So, pricing , when it returns can consider what the market will bear.     Yesterday  the was survey that said when the draconian lock downs are lifted  by any means, that 80% of the people surveyed said that they intend to go somewhere..anywhere from pent up wants.    Now, they will pay any price to get out.    With cruises you may  they limit passengers resulting in a 50% say decrease in capacity.    That very well can translate into "supply and demand.   There may be more demand than supply and we may see 40 to 50% fare increases.  Don't want to pay that, OK, step aside  in the line...there are a lot more behind you to take your place....   You might even see bidding wars for available cabins....like people do in homes.

[Hawaiidan]

54 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

I viewed the question in another light. A friend shared an email he had received from a French tour guide.

 

The guide’s email said they are waiting on the government’s guidelines for tourists for this summer. The company has eight (8) passenger vans. They don’t currently know (1) how many they’ll be allowed to put in each van. Two, eight, or somewhere in between. (2) They don’t know if they’ll be allowed to have mixed groups, or if everyone will have to be “ together “ from one party. Likewise, the wineries don’t currently know if they can book mixed group tours and tastings . Everything is still up in the air.

 

The cost of the van for the day won’t change, it’ll be 600 Euros. Just how many will be splitting that cost is in question.

 

Capacity restrictions could lead to equipment shortages. My earlier response was that the operators will not go out and procure additional vans to solve what is viewed as a short term ( probably 1year) infrastructure shortage. People just won’t be able to book tours. 
 

In worst case, if tourism isn’t resumed this year, the tourism infrastructure will be so destroyed by bankruptcies, shortages will take years to recover. The European Tourism Boards are pleading with the government to answer these questions quickly, before it becomes too late and they lose the bookings. Per one article, France’s tourism industry typically receives 48 Billion Euros from US citizens alone every year. They had lost nearly all of that in 2020 and are desperate.
 that

All but King Anthony and his disciples can grasp the issues at hand.

The problem is that the King who was brought in to solve the problem  has now become more of a problem than the foe  he was supposed to fight.    Makes me think of the pied piper.

[susiesan]

So what happens if passengers remove and don't wear the electronic monitoring bracelets? How are the cruise lines going to enforce people wearing them? 

[Tranquility Base]

13 minutes ago, susiesan said:

So what happens if passengers remove and don't wear the electronic monitoring bracelets? How are the cruise lines going to enforce people wearing them? 

What do you think would happen ?

[pinotlover]

I thought we already accepted the fact that a cruise ship is a Petrie dish . What part of that is now in denial? 
 

Breakfast in the Terrace, afternoon Tea in Horizons, Happy Hour in Martinis, dinner in the GDR, then to the Lounge for the evening show. Shake and stir for a couple of days and who hasn’t come in contact with another specific passenger? What is that bracelet going to prove? Are some planning on staying in their cabins 24/7 and only doing room service? How else on a smaller O ship would they  not come in contact with another passenger? O doesn’t sail 5000+ behemoths.
 

How about everybody comes vaccinated and we take our chances in the Petrie dish? If you can’t handle that, then stay at home hunkered down. It will never be safe enough again for some.

[Tranquility Base]

9 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

How about everybody comes vaccinated and we take our chances in the Petrie dish?

When cruising restarts, what is your suggestion for the action which should be taken if a positive case is detected onboard ...

a) by the ship ?

b) by the next port / country on the itinerary ?

[clo]

1 hour ago, Hawaiidan said:

The problem is that the King who was brought in to solve the problem  has now become more of a problem than the foe  he was supposed to fight.    Makes me think of the pied piper.

In your never humble opinion, of course.

[pinotlover]

6 minutes ago, Tranquility Base said:

When cruising restarts, what is your suggestion for the action which should be taken if a positive case is detected onboard ...

a) by the ship ?

b) by the next port / country on the itinerary ?

If , and the odds on a fully vaccinated ship is tiny a case will emerge, that person will go into quarantine on the ship.

 

The ports will evaluate and do what they want. I’m sure that the cruise industry will work out protocols with the embarkment and Disembarkment ports and those protocols will be followed. Quarantined passengers won’t be allowed off the ship until quarantine is over or at disembarkment. See above, all those protocols will be pre-established. If a port declares they won’t allow a ship into port with infected quarantined passengers, those ports will quickly be completely dropped from the itinerary and replaced with others that will.

 

King Anthony’s disciples can’t grasp this, but many of these ports are begging for tourists and cruisers to come back.
 

Most ports will say “ leave the sick aboard, and let the vaccinated healthy ones come ashore. The King Anthony ports that don’t will suffer the economic consequences for not doing so. 

 

 

[1985rz1]

32 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

King Anthony’s disciples can’t grasp this, but many of these ports are begging for tourists and cruisers to come back.
 

Most ports will say “ leave the sick aboard, and let the vaccinated healthy ones come ashore. The King Anthony ports that don’t will suffer the economic consequences for not doing so. 

 

 

Pinot

 

You can make your point without the ad hominin derisions you seem to favor.  You have your opinions, and we all know them by now, ad nauseum.  While I value many of your comments on this Board, your continued polarizing comments are not an added value.

Edited February 24, 2021 by 1985rz1

[pinotlover]

3 minutes ago, 1985rz1 said:

Pinot

 

You can make your point without the ad hominin derisions you seem to favor.  You have your opinions, and we all know them by now, ad nauseum.  While I value many of your comments on this Board, your continued polarizing comments are not an added value.

1985rz1;

 

Thank You, I will try to do better! 🍷

 

Perhaps my reply should have been along the line of : What do you think will happen to those ports that won’t allow otherwise healthy vaccinated cruisers in? 
 

There will be some.

 

[LHT28]

Until many Countries have the vaccine & have their people vaccinated  I cannot  see them allowing cruise ships in even if the pax are all vaccinated

They still do not know  even if you are vaccinated if you will be protected 

 

I read that there are still over 200 Countries  that have not gotten the vaccine  yet

 

JMO

 Just when you thought it was safe to venture out  there is this  news

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/02/coronavirus-strain-first-identified-california-may-be-more-infectious-and-cause-more

[Tranquility Base]

3 minutes ago, LHT28 said:

I read that there are still over 200 Countries  that have not gotten the vaccine  yet

I think around 180m doses have been distributed around the world so far.

About 84% of those are to only 10 countries. 

[mringenoldus]

43 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

1985rz1;

 

Thank You, I will try to do better! 🍷

 

Perhaps my reply should have been along the line of : What do you think will happen to those ports that won’t allow otherwise healthy vaccinated cruisers in? 
 

There will be some.

 

Thank you for being willing to take a step back from comments that seemed a bit unnecessary. I respect those who can take a second look and reconsider. 

[Tranquility Base]

1 hour ago, pinotlover said:

The ports will evaluate and do what they want. I’m sure that the cruise industry will work out protocols with the embarkment and Disembarkment ports and those protocols will be followed. Quarantined passengers won’t be allowed off the ship until quarantine is over or at disembarkment. See above, all those protocols will be pre-established. If a port declares they won’t allow a ship into port with infected quarantined passengers, those ports will quickly be completely dropped from the itinerary and replaced with others that will.

Thanks for your reply.

 

You have previously posted that you think the ATW '22 cruise will sail, avoiding US waters.

This cruise departs in less than 10 months.

 

Disregarding US ports, In the first half of that cruise through to the 31st March the itinerary visits 12 countries.

The clock is certainly ticking to get all those countries onboard (pun intended)

[pinotlover]

42 minutes ago, Tranquility Base said:

Thanks for your reply.

 

You have previously posted that you think the ATW '22 cruise will sail, avoiding US waters.

This cruise departs in less than 10 months.

 

Disregarding US ports, In the first half of that cruise through to the 31st March the itinerary visits 12 countries.

The clock is certainly ticking to get all those countries onboard (pun intended)

Several of the illustrious posters here have ( probably) wisely chosen to book no new cruises until Oceania sails again. If one doesn’t believe that Oceania will work out terms for the ATW 22 to visit those ports/ countries, and that it, along with all its other cruises through mid 22 will be cancelled, I’d advise you to get all your money out now.

 

Yes, I believe ATW will sail and skip US ports, if necessary.  I believe that between now and final payment for that cruise, and multiple others, NCLH and other cruise lines will work out protocols for entry into a long list of countries for a year from now.

 

The long term survival of the cruise industry depends upon sailing again soon. Rich countries, like the US and Canada, can ignore that. ( I promised to be

nice). Many countries aren’t so fortunate and need those rich US and Canadian cruisers to come, take tours, pay dockage fees, and spend money to generate dollars for trade. There are Americans are standing in line to do so.

 

I don’t believe that the cruise lines are going to just roll over and die without doing everything possible to sail wherever they are welcomed.

I believe those lines will be welcomed in more places than you and Lyn obviously do. Wait and See.

[sofietucker]

We currently see the Quantum of the Seas is  sailing out of Singapore and the Grandiosa out of Civitavecchia without consequence. So it's happening "as we speak.".

Edited February 25, 2021 by sofietucker

[njhorseman]

1 hour ago, sofietucker said:

We currently see the Quantum of the Seas is  sailing out of Singapore and the Grandiosa out of Civitavecchia without consequence. So it's happening "as we speak.".

Quantum of the Seas is doing short cruises to nowhere for Singapore residents only.

 

MSC Grandiosa is doing short Italian cruises for Italians only.

 

Neither type of cruise are valid models that can be considered for Oceania. How many Oceania passengers want a 2 to 4 day cruise to nowhere or a one week cruise that only goes to one own's country (which Oceania couldn't even do because its ships are registered in the Marshall Islands)?

 

Do you have examples of ocean-going cruises currently operating that are not limited to either passengers of only certain nationalities and/or have actual itineraries comparable to what has been offered in the past? No, you don't.

 

[sofietucker]

36 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

Quantum of the Seas is doing short cruises to nowhere for Singapore residents only.

 

MSC Grandiosa is doing short Italian cruises for Italians only.

 

Neither type of cruise are valid models that can be considered 

Do you have examples of ocean-going cruises currently operating that are not limited to either passengers of only certain nationalities and/or have actual itineraries comparable to what has been offered in the past? No, you don't.

 

Correct. Nevertheless, those are ships actually cruising the seas now. And more will continue to do so: Celestyal, a Greek cruise line, is pestering me to death with their Greek-isles-only itineraries. I expect--Greece being among the countries whose economy heavily depends on tourism (30% or so)--that they will soon join the ranks of the countries currently welcoming Americans. Those include Croatia and Mexico. Though Ponant (French) is not currently cruising, it has a regular itinerary of nothing but Croatian ports. As a favorite country, I'd jump on that in a minute; the Celestyal ones too. Cancelled an all-Mexico Sea of Cortez itinerary last year but on an American--I mean, Maltese--line... Keeping optimistic!

[Shawnino]

That's not cruising, that's a floating domestic bus service.

[sofietucker]

2 hours ago, Shawnino said:

That's not cruising, that's a floating domestic bus service.

Hmm... Oh that's right: Azamara is the port-intensive line, not Oceania, and according to their new CEO, will retain that feature. 

[Rob the Cruiser]

14 hours ago, pinotlover said:

1985rz1;

 

Thank You, I will try to do better! 🍷

 

Perhaps my reply should have been along the line of : What do you think will happen to those ports that won’t allow otherwise healthy vaccinated cruisers in? 
 

There will be some.

 

 

Don't let other people tell you what to think. You are who you are. If someone doesn't like what you have to say, they can ignore you. 

Edited February 25, 2021 by Rob the Cruiser