COVID Being brought under Control

[frantic36]

3 hours ago, Toofarfromthesea said:

 

Get comprehensively proven wrong and therefore want to shut down the discussion.  "Politics is better for me than thee".

I could absolutely put multiple citations to refute yours and others claims however Cruise Critic specifically states "no political discussion" and I am trying to abide by the rules.

 

Plus after reading some comments it just isn't worth further time and effort as no-one's opinion is changed. It is a self defeating circle.

[Essiesmom]

11 hours ago, Hlitner said:

LOL I should have thought about the summer issue (been to your country a few times).  Given all the cultural BS being taught in our schools you have reminded me that there should no longer be any reference to summer, fall, winter and spring since to some it is culturally inappropriate (whatever that means).  But I also fear that using the English names of the months is no longer allowed because it is "unauthorized cultural appropriation" from the Greek culture.  I then thought we could refer to everything using the "day number" so July 1 might need to be called "Day 182" but then I recently learned that using math is now considered  by some to be racist so perhaps there is also something wrong with using any number!  OMG.

 

Hank

You could go the traditional Quaker way:  First month, seventh day...etc.  My mother was raised Quaker, and used that terminology with her parents and sister, but not us.  It still confuses me...  EM

[DirtyDawg]

Being a bit of a history buff I'd say that we have successfully landed on Juno, and the rest of the Normandy beaches in our battle against Covid but, like the Allies in WWII found out, it will not be a cakewalk to victory. Enemies seem to always have a thing or two up their sleeves to stave off defeat. So no VC (victory over Covid) day any time soon. Sadly, it is going to take more time, more sacrifices and more deaths before that happens.  

 

As for cruising, I'm in no hurry to get non socially distant with thousands of my fellow human petri dishes in a floating sardine can.  I'll let the others enjoy that experience for a while first. 😉

[Mary229]

Covid being brought under control - anecdotal evidence

 

My sister is a hospital nurse in New Orleans who has worked with Covid patients exclusively since last year.  Her hospital was ground zero for the New Orleans outbreak.  She reported that today was the first day in over a year that she did not have to go through a line at the door to have her temperature checked.  Gone are the temperature stations!

[Hlitner]

6 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

Covid being brought under control - anecdotal evidence

 

My sister is a hospital nurse in New Orleans who has worked with Covid patients exclusively since last year.  Her hospital was ground zero for the New Orleans outbreak.  She reported that today was the first day in over a year that she did not have to go through a line at the door to have her temperature checked.  Gone are the temperature stations!

The temperature checks were always somewhat of a joke.  Studies in NYC (early in the pandemic) showed that nearly half the COVID admissions involved folks with nasty symptoms and no fever.  This winter, while we lived in Puerto Vallarta, the city had a rule that temperatures were supposed to be taken for everyone entering any building.  In our own Condo building our security guards used a pretty common gun-like digital thermometer which they simply pointed at one's arm (this is common in Mexico since pointing at the forehead is often considered rude).  The thermometer would generally indicate about 35 degrees (95f) even after I had been sitting in the sun for hours.  It was the same in most restaurants where the readings were 34-35 (which would mean probably died 1-2 hours ago).  

 

One day I asked our security guard (in our 150 unit Condo building) what they do if somebody actually has a fever and he laughed.  Since it was our home there was nothing they would do other then let us know we indicated a fever.  At that point it would be life as normal and up to the feverish person to deal with it (I guess most would just take some Tylenol).   Another Mexican COVID rule was that buildings had to have "foot baths" at the entrance.  This is like a rubber mat which is soaked with an antibiotic liquid.  So one would drag their flip flops, sandals, or sneakers through this liquid (and try not to slip on the floor).  It made us wonder how many folks get COVID on the bottom of their flip flops.  And do you think we also should have been forced to sit in a liquid bath in case we got COVID on our butts?  Lots of ridiculous rules when it comes to COVID.  Another weird rule we had in January was that the beach was suppose to close at 3pm.  On some days (maybe 1 out of 5) the lifeguard would actually kick folks off the beach at 3 (unless they resisted in which case nothing happened).  But when folks were kicked off the spacious beach they moved a few feet to the open bars/restaurants where they were crowded together inside!  Go figure.

 

Hank

 

Hank

[Pizzasteve]

2 hours ago, jfunk138 said:

"The 27-year-old's vaccination card shows she received her second dose of the Pfizer vaccine on January 12. She said she found out she was positive on March 18 from one of the routine tests she takes weekly for work. Believing it might be a false positive, Rewerts said she took a rapid test, which also came back positive.

She said her mother and two other family members – all fully vaccinated – also tested positive this week. They are experiencing symptoms."

 

Not only did these fully vaccinated people get symptomatic Covid, they apparently also spread Covid, since they were all vaccinated.

https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2021/03/19/breakthrough-cases-of-covid-19-impact-the-fully-vaccinated
 

This seems to be a point many eager cruisrs miss when they post comments attacking Canada or the CDC's caution about a cruise restart.  We just dont have good data yet on transmission.  Vaccines are amazing and wonderful at reducing unnecessary deaths, just as are masks.  They are like an umbrella and raincoat in the rain, keeping one comfortable and less likely to get wet.

 

That said, it is still raining.  Covid is a new virus, it is still spreading at a very concerning rate, it will continue mutating, especially with many cases, and it can be deadly.  It is far from "under control", but we have gone from unmitigated disaster to somewhat mitigated disaster.

 

The fact remains that travel and cruising are labs for spreading disease to spread across wide areas, so officials are cautious.  Now how much risk one is a willing to accept is a topic worth debating, but until we have no Covid cases or better data about how the virus acts in a fully vaccinated population, we still just dont know the risks nor how cruising might impact overall society.  We do know that the early infected cruises were a big factor in making the pandemic global.

 

So is it a suprise countries with limited vaccination dont want cruising restarting anytime soon?  I really get the strong desire to have some fun, but this site seems to lose some perspective and likes to exaggerate the economic impact of pausing cruises.

 

Hey I want to cruise too.  Had a river cruise cancelled, have an ocean cruisd booked for November, but we need better data and a rush to reopen seems reckless to me.

Edited March 22, 2021 by Pizzasteve

[kirtihk]

On 3/18/2021 at 12:28 PM, njhorseman said:

As a mathematician I have to take issue with your use of "accurate" and "projections" in this context in the same sentence. These projections are estimates derived from models that are based on sets of assumptions and formulae . The results of such projections can never be deemed as accurate except retrospectively after actual results are known, even if the models employed have produced good results in the past.

 

So while the projections you've referenced may be based on models and assumptions developed by very smart people who have done good work in the past there's no guarantee of how accurate they will be. 

I am mathematician, too.  One cannot calculate life (unless it (I "love" political correctness - ha-ha!) is a superior creature from "sky" who has been calculating all of these matters, but that is a different topic).

[SelectSys]

11 hours ago, ilikeanswers said:

It is probably because they will expire before approval. Better to give them away than waste them. South Africa got batch with 15 April expiry, they say they may not be able to get it to everyone in time.

That makes sense to me.  The point I was trying to make in my reply was that in December, the previous admin may have been expecting another vaccine alternative to kick in earlier.  When this new vaccine alternative didn't happen, the new admin filled the gap with existing solutions - i.e., more Pfizer / Moderna / J&J.

 

It's really hard to know what the rationale might have been for passing on the December offer from Pfizer.  People here have suggested it was gross negligence as it fits their worldview.  My perspective is that other factors might have been at play. 

 

We know that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines have the most stringent handling conditions.   The current admin wants to push J&J even though it has less efficacy than the other two approved vacines to simplify logistics - especially in hard to reach and underserved communities.  Maybe this was the idea previously as well?  We'll find out in time what happened as historians conduct interviews - maybe.

 

See below for vaccine storage differences:

https://www.prevention.com/health/a35118263/astrazeneca-vs-pfizer-vs-moderna-covid-19-vaccine/

Johnson & Johnson’s and AstraZeneca’s vaccines are the easiest to transport so far—they can be stored for up to six months between 36°F and 46°F, normal refrigerator temperatures. The Moderna and Pfizer options, meanwhile, must be stored at subzero temps until they’re ready to be used, at -4°F and -94°F, respectively. (mRNA tech is relatively more fragile, meaning it must be kept at much lower temperatures to remain effective and stable.)

[Hlitner]

3 hours ago, jfunk138 said:

"The 27-year-old's vaccination card shows she received her second dose of the Pfizer vaccine on January 12. She said she found out she was positive on March 18 from one of the routine tests she takes weekly for work. Believing it might be a false positive, Rewerts said she took a rapid test, which also came back positive.

She said her mother and two other family members – all fully vaccinated – also tested positive this week. They are experiencing symptoms."

 

Not only did these fully vaccinated people get symptomatic Covid, they apparently also spread Covid, since they were all vaccinated.

https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2021/03/19/breakthrough-cases-of-covid-19-impact-the-fully-vaccinated
 

We also read the story this morning.  What it shows is that the vaccine data is likely pretty accurate and about 1 out of 20 vaccinated (with Pfizer or Moderna) may still contract COVID after being fully vaccinated.   The good news is that none of the 3 cases in Hawaii involved serious symptoms....i.e. they were mild COVID cases.  This is also consistent with the vaccine claims that there were zero hospitalizations  (from COVID) in the Phase 3 vaccinated groups.   But that does leave us with two choices.  The vaccinated can simply live their normal lives with the knowledge that they might get a mild case of COVID.  or..... Vaccinated folks can continue to take mitigation measures (i.e. social distancing, masks, etc) to further minimize their risk.

 

What does this mean for cruises?  We again have the issue what happens on a ship when there are one or more cases of COVID?  Both RCI and Celebrity have made it clear their is a risk that their cruises will be cut short and immediately return to port and there might be delays in folks getting back home.  Given that COVID will likely be with us for a long time (perhaps forever) how we deal with these occasional cases is something that needs to be discussed and resolved.  

 

Hank 

[jfunk138]

1 minute ago, Hlitner said:

We also read the story this morning.  What it shows is that the vaccine data is likely pretty accurate and about 1 out of 20 vaccinated (with Pfizer or Moderna) may still contract COVID after being fully vaccinated.   The good news is that none of the 3 cases in Hawaii involved serious symptoms....i.e. they were mild COVID cases.  This is also consistent with the vaccine claims that there were zero hospitalizations  (from COVID) in the Phase 3 vaccinated groups.   But that does leave us with two choices.  The vaccinated can simply live their normal lives with the knowledge that they might get a mild case of COVID.  or..... Vaccinated folks can continue to take mitigation measures (i.e. social distancing, masks, etc) to further minimize their risk.

 

What does this mean for cruises?  We again have the issue what happens on a ship when there are one or more cases of COVID?  Both RCI and Celebrity have made it clear their is a risk that their cruises will be cut short and immediately return to port and there might be delays in folks getting back home.  Given that COVID will likely be with us for a long time (perhaps forever) how we deal with these occasional cases is something that needs to be discussed and resolved.  

 

Hank 

One particular concern I have here is the proximity of the cases.  4 cases in a random sample of 100 people, sure that's consistent with the trial data.  But that's not what this is.  This is 4 people in the same fully vaccinated family.  One person in a family rolls the dice and gets 11 (5% chance), that's not unusual, it's expected.  4 people in the same family each roll the dice and each roll 11, you start to suspect the dice are rigged.  In the case of vax, you start to suspect the trial data is rigged.

I agree with you on the "mild cases", which ought to be considered a "win".  But so far, if you ask the general public and the CDC they seem to want "zero cases" regardless of severity.

If the CDC and public opinion don't start to the embrace the idea of "mild Covid" we've got a long road ahead.

[Mary229]

The problem with "cases" is the number simply represents the number of positive test results whether it is an accurate result or even the same person tested multiple times.   Hospitalizations are the number to watch and if you want to worry - the one to worry about

[clo]

4 hours ago, frantic36 said:

I could absolutely put multiple citations to refute yours and others claims however Cruise Critic specifically states "no political discussion" and I am trying to abide by the rules.

 

Some posters here seem to have 'favored nation status.'

[Mary229]

1 minute ago, clo said:

Some posters here seem to have 'favored nation status.'

I don't know,  I have slipped up in the past but when I cite I am very selective and very careful to go to established, reputable sources.  This generally disqualifies all media.  No matter what media outlet you quote, someone will find objection and report the post

[kirtihk]

On 3/19/2021 at 3:07 PM, cruisingguy007 said:

 

I'm not sure what country you're in but here in America the lock downs, restrictions, closures, etc were for everyone, not just the elderly population. So yes, the world did stop for them. Everyone suffered/sacrificed for the sake of the old/venerable and everyone suffered. People lost jobs, business, industries collapsed, faced isolation, kids were pulled from schools etc. It's a completely crap argument that only the old suffered or "suffered more". Complete nonsense.   

Yes, and at certain age every day becomes the "ground hog day" for the majority.  For 0 - 40, however, every day is a new discovery; so, "steeling" over 365 of them and counting is a crime.

[Hlitner]

37 minutes ago, jfunk138 said:

One particular concern I have here is the proximity of the cases.  4 cases in a random sample of 100 people, sure that's consistent with the trial data.  But that's not what this is.  This is 4 people in the same fully vaccinated family.  One person in a family rolls the dice and gets 11 (5% chance), that's not unusual, it's expected.  4 people in the same family each roll the dice and each roll 11, you start to suspect the dice are rigged.  In the case of vax, you start to suspect the trial data is rigged.

I agree with you on the "mild cases", which ought to be considered a "win".  But so far, if you ask the general public and the CDC they seem to want "zero cases" regardless of severity.

If the CDC and public opinion don't start to the embrace the idea of "mild Covid" we've got a long road ahead.

So what else can this mean?  Nobody likes to talk about it, but the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines require very special handling and temperature controls.  It is always possible that the vaccine was not stored at the proper temperature, somewhere along the logistical line, which would negatively impact the effectiveness of the vaccine.   And then we read about one situation here in the States where a pharmacist messed up and forgot to put any vaccine in the syringe.   There have been a few reported such cases (just do an Internet search).    The Pfizer (not sure about Moderna) also involves a procedure (at the vaccination center) where the vial must be defrosted and then activated with the addition of normal saline.  Pfizer even gives them instructions on how many times to shake the vial, etc.  Not following all the proper procedures can also impact the effectiveness of the product.  So who knows?

 

Like the story said, there are always weird things that happen with any vaccine.  So, for example, since the Florida case was all in the same family could there be some kind of hereditary resistance to the vaccine?  Who knows.   But what we do know, so far, is that the mRNA vaccines seem to be near 100% effective in keeping folks out of the hospital with COVID.  For this high risk guy I do find that somewhat reassuring.    

 

What is also interesting is how some anti-vaxers and doubters jump on these kind of stories to support their position of not getting vaccinated.  But those same folks choose to ignore that over 550,000 have died from COVID (just in the USA) and there are likely at least another 5 million + who are continuing to suffer from long term morbidities caused by COVID.   Some of those long term morbidities are really bad stuff (and not often talked about in the press) such as severe lung and cardiac damage, kidney failure (kidneys do not heal from this), neurological damage (i.e. brain fog and worse) and even the loss of limbs from circulatory damage.  

 

Among my own little circle of friends and family about half who had COVID have been suffering from long term issues.  The one that is really weird is normally very healthy man in his early 40s, who completely lost his sense of taste/smell,  While this is pretty common with COVID what is weird with this guy is that after nearly a year he has not recovered.  That guy had few other COVID symptoms, but this one has really messed up his life.  Imagine not being able to taste food or wine (this guy loves both wine and booze), being able to smell a fire, etc.  

 

Hank

[Mary229]

19 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

pharmacist messed up and forgot to put any vaccine in the syringe.

I was informed and I will have to ask the source, that the syringes came pre-filled.  Is that wrong?

[CruiserBruce]

40 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

I was informed and I will have to ask the source, that the syringes came pre-filled.  Is that wrong?

Everywhere I have seen, the vaccines don't come pre-loaded. Pfizer comes in 5 (some have extra) dose vials. J&J and Moderna in 10 dose vials.

[njhorseman]

1 hour ago, Mary229 said:

I don't know,  I have slipped up in the past but when I cite I am very selective and very careful to go to established, reputable sources.  This generally disqualifies all media.  No matter what media outlet you quote, someone will find objection and report the post

Please explain what source you can cite that wouldn't be media. Before you try to answer I'd  recommend reading this article, which gives a very comprehensive definition of "media". https://marketbusinessnews.com/financial-glossary/media-definition-meaning/

 

I suspect you're limiting your definition of "media" to what is commonly referred to as "mass media.'' That is in no way the totality of media, which include such sources as scientific journals.

 

Beyond that to disqualify all mass media would mean that you think nothing that appears in the media is ever correct. That is preposterous. 

[Hlitner]

50 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

I was informed and I will have to ask the source, that the syringes came pre-filled.  Is that wrong?

Absolutely wrong with regard to the Moderna and Pfizer (I cannot speak to the other vaccines I have not seen).  If you are interested here is the detailed instructions on the Pfizer

 

Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine EUA Fact Sheet for Healthcare Providers Administering Vaccine (Vaccination Providers) (fda.gov)

 

When I worked in the Emergency Department (back many years ago when I was a Paramedic) it was not unusual to reconstitute some drugs (which would come as either dry powder of a concentrate)..often with saline or sterile water.  What makes the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine different is that they must be stored at very cold temperatures and defrosted according to specific procedures.  Where I got my vaccine (a local pharmacy where they dispense 200 Pfizer shots per day) one of the pharmacists prepared the vials, and then drew up the drug into syringes.  This all happens somewhat behind the scenes and is done within hours of giving the shots.   When the patient arrives to get the shot it is likely that all they see is a preloaded syringe which has been done shortly before they get their shot.  Each Pfizer contains 6 doses (although the pharmacists had originally been told there were only 5 doses per vial).  It has been reported that there is a way to get a 7th dose out of the vials if the pharmacist has a specific type of syringe   I believe the Moderna vials contain 10 doses and do not need to be reconstituted/diluted prior to use.

 

Hank

[clo]

1 minute ago, njhorseman said:

Please explain what source you can cite that wouldn't be media. Before you try to answer I'd  recommend reading this article, which gives a very comprehensive definition of "media". https://marketbusinessnews.com/financial-glossary/media-definition-meaning/

 

I suspect you're limiting your definition of "media" to what is commonly referred to as "mass media.'' That is in no way the totality of media, which include such sources as scientific journals.

 

Beyond that to disqualify all mass media would mean that you think nothing that appears in the media is ever correct. That is preposterous. 

Google is my friend 🙂 And it will generally link to sites like CDC, NIH, WHO, etc. Even if it's showing a media site then THAT site will give me the above mentioned.

[Mary229]

2 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

Please explain what source you can cite that wouldn't be media. Before you try to answer I'd  recommend reading this article, which gives a very comprehensive definition of "media". https://marketbusinessnews.com/financial-glossary/media-definition-meaning/

 

I suspect you're limiting your definition of "media" to what is commonly referred to as "mass media.'' That is in no way the totality of media, which include such sources as scientific journals.

 

Beyond that to disqualify all mass media would mean that you think nothing that appears in the media is ever correct. That is preposterous. 

I usually cite CDC document, NHS and WHO documents, University reports and the like.  I have also cited EU agencies, etc.....   I just find this is a touchy subject and you might as well go to the source rather than the interpretation because no matter what media outlet you quote someone objects.

[Mary229]

@CruiserBruceand @Hlitner  Now that I think about it perhaps my confusion stems from where I received the vaccine.  I went to a drive through hub with paramedics.  Likely those vaccines were pre-filled by pharmacists then administered by paramedics.

Edited March 22, 2021 by Mary229

[njhorseman]

5 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

I usually cite CDC document, NHS and WHO documents, University reports and the like.  I have also cited EU agencies, etc.....   I just find this is a touchy subject and you might as well go to the source rather than the interpretation because no matter what media outlet you quote someone objects.

If it's something that's published, which all your examples are, it's media. As I suspected you're really talking about not citing newspapers, TV, etc...which are mass media.

By the way, as a mathematician I run into people...indeed posters here... who won't accept the type of sources you're accepting because they believe that numbers can be manipulated to promote or support a particular agenda...and in some respects they can, so the agencies you cite may also have biases in their reports.

Edited March 22, 2021 by njhorseman

[clo]

24 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

I usually cite CDC document, NHS and WHO documents, University reports and the like.  I have also cited EU agencies, etc.....   I just find this is a touchy subject and you might as well go to the source rather than the interpretation because no matter what media outlet you quote someone objects.

I really drives me rather nut(tier) when someone writes a long, long post and says 'this is how it is' but gives the rare citation. I've come to just not reading those. I've said that on important issues "I don't care who people think/feel/believe; I'm only interesting in the facts." And without citations it could be anything.

[CruiserBruce]

20 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

@CruiserBruceand @Hlitner  Now that I think about it perhaps my confusion stems from where I received the vaccine.  I went to a drive through hub with paramedics.  Likely those vaccines were pre-filled by pharmacists then administered by paramedics.

Due to the volume most places are trying to do, someone loading and a different person injecting is a very efficient way to do it.

 

By the way, you don't need to be a doctor or a pharmacist to draw injections. RNs,  paramedics and others, like pharmacist techs can all draw meds. In my case, my first dose was drawn by one nurse, injected by another. The drawing nurse was sitting at the other end of the table from the injecting nurse.