What are the chances Florida gets its way in court today (5/12/21)?

[nocl]

1 hour ago, K.T.B. said:

Mediation has been ordered:  https://www.2150.com/files/cc/8_21-cv-00839-SDM-AAS/

Not unusual for a case being referred to mediation.  Now we see if mediation fails, which it does in many cases like this. At which point the judge will rule and the appeals begin

[broberts]

Is the order to mediation not effectively a denial of the preliminary injunction?

[nocl]

Just now, broberts said:

Is the order to mediation not effectively a denial of the preliminary injunction?

More of the judge not wanting to be in the middle of a fight between a state and an Agency of the federal government. So it goes to mediation.  Then we get to see if the mediation fails and the judge has to make a ruling.

 

It seems that an injunction will not be granted at this time.

[songbird1329]

So when the court refers the matter to mediation, the judge has neither granted nor denied the motion for preliminary injunction.  the motion remains pending.  

 

As a practical matter, Florida just lost.  The Conditional Sail Order remains in effect.  In the meantime the CDC is working directly with the cruise lines on appropriate protocols.    But they don't go back to court until next month, so ....

[Host Jazzbeau]

"Florida will be thrown out of court because they lack standing."  Doesn't seem like such great legal knowledge now...

[markeb]

4 minutes ago, Host Jazzbeau said:

"Florida will be thrown out of court because they lack standing."  Doesn't seem like such great legal knowledge now...

Arguably that got punted as well. If arbitration works, the judge doesn’t have to address it. I suppose he could have ruled one way or another, but I’m not seeing that in the orders entered so far. And that would have been all stop for appeal. 
 

And it’s looking more and more like this will resolve anyway. 

[mom says]

3 hours ago, JRG said:

It’s not about justice now, it’s about settlement.

It never was about justice.

[JRG]

2 hours ago, Host Jazzbeau said:

"Florida will be thrown out of court because they lack standing."  Doesn't seem like such great legal knowledge now...

 

I was worried that there might have been some substance here,   but I think if California and NY and other port states ultimately joined then the aggregate economic loss would be nothing to sneeze at.

 

If the CDC capitulates then nobody is the worse for wear and whole thing goes away anyway,  that seems like the game plan.

 

I think the Judge was smart to drag it out over the weekend,  (in case CDC buckled) and now has passed the buck for who knows how long for maybe the same reason.

 

There were quite a few regular posters who jumped on the "standing" defense band-wagon and it looks like the wheels have come off.   Ouch!

 

 

[harkinmr]

2 hours ago, markeb said:

Arguably that got punted as well. If arbitration works, the judge doesn’t have to address it. I suppose he could have ruled one way or another, but I’m not seeing that in the orders entered so far. And that would have been all stop for appeal. 
 

And it’s looking more and more like this will resolve anyway. 

The judge did punt. He did not want to grant injunctive relief, so he kicked the can down the road. The cruise lines are currently resolving all of the issues with the CDC, so by the time this “mediation” gets settled the CSO will be a shadow of its former self and the judge will simply say: “the matter has been resolved, motion for injunctive relief denied”. 

[harkinmr]

23 minutes ago, JRG said:

 

I was worried that there might have been some substance here,   but I think if California and NY and other port states ultimately joined then the aggregate economic loss would be nothing to sneeze at.

 

If the CDC capitulates then nobody is the worse for wear and whole thing goes away anyway,  that seems like the game plan.

 

I think the Judge was smart to drag it out over the weekend,  (in case CDC buckled) and now has passed the buck for who knows how long for maybe the same reason.

 

There were quite a few regular posters who jumped on the "standing" defense band-wagon and it looks like the wheels have come off.   Ouch!

 

 

The CDC is not going to capitulate. Why would they?  Florida did not get injunctive relief. The CSO stays in place. The matter goes to mediation, which Florida does not want to do, time passes and the cruise lines resolve matters between themselves and the CDC, and Florida’s Governor is left holding the bag.  

Edited May 18, 2021 by harkinmr

[Host Jazzbeau]

If Florida truly lacked standing or had made absurb legal claims, the case would be over.  The case isn't over.  Time to admit you were wrong.   "that was the end of Florida’s case" and "the death knell of this lawsuit" – who's "laughing" now?

[songbird1329]

1 hour ago, Host Jazzbeau said:

If Florida truly lacked standing or had made absurb legal claims, the case would be over.  The case isn't over.  Time to admit you were wrong.   "that was the end of Florida’s case" and "the death knell of this lawsuit" – who's "laughing" now?

I disagree.  The judge didn’t want to rule on the case, he didn’t want to dismiss the claim.

 

when you ask for a preliminary injunction you’re telling the court that there is some urgency to your request,

 

it took five days for the court to rule on the motion and he gave the parties two weeks to resolve the matter via mediation.

 

so, if the matter doesn’t settle, it will be at least 3 weeks until we see a ruling.  And that ruling will be appealed to the 11th circuit.

 

The federal cases involving the 2020 federal election were all fast tracked, and those cases generally took a week or so to be heard.

 

clearly the court is in no hurry to rule in this case.  Clearly the court wants the parties to settle and render his decision moot.

 

that’s a loss for Florida.  Even if the state prevails on its motion, a decision will come too late to save the summer cruising season.

 

I think the cruise lines recognize this, which is why they are negotiating with the CDC directly and did not join in Florida’s suit,

[cruisestitch]

Judge has ordered mandatory mediation

[nocl]

40 minutes ago, cruisestitch said:

Judge has ordered mandatory mediation

Nothing says that mediation will succeed.  A mediation order is not uncommon.  Failure of such mediation is also not uncommon.  At which point it would go back to the court for a ruling.

 

The unknown is how long the mediator will keep at it before he declares the mediation a failure.  The mediator is the only one that can make that decision.

[Ken the cruiser]

I predict by May 28th, both parties will come to an equitable solution whereby Celebrity will be afforded the capability to verify all adults over 18 have been fully vaccinated before boarding their applicable Phase 4 restricted cruises sailing from Ft Lauderdale sometime in July. That is my prediction! 😎

 

Edited May 19, 2021 by Ken the cruiser

[deliver42]

The problem isn't with the CDC. The mediation will take care of that. The problem will be DeSantis, who has to get off his high horse about vaccine requirements.

[Host Jazzbeau]

1 hour ago, deliver42 said:

The problem isn't with the CDC. The mediation will take care of that. The problem will be DeSantis, who has to get off his high horse about vaccine requirements.

But Florida is a party to the case, so they are involved in the mediation.  My hope is that this process will be a way for both sides to save face:  CDC agrees to allow 100% vaccinated cruises, Florida agrees to allow the cruise lines to verify compliance – we win but they can both claim that they won...

[CI66774]

On 5/18/2021 at 2:39 PM, songbird1329 said:

So when the court refers the matter to mediation, the judge has neither granted nor denied the motion for preliminary injunction.  the motion remains pending.  

 

As a practical matter, Florida just lost.  The Conditional Sail Order remains in effect.  In the meantime the CDC is working directly with the cruise lines on appropriate protocols.    But they don't go back to court until next month, so ....

No, Florida has not lost. The judge merely has referred the parties to non-binding mediation first. If that fails, he will rule.

[CI66774]

1 hour ago, Host Jazzbeau said:

But Florida is a party to the case, so they are involved in the mediation.  My hope is that this process will be a way for both sides to save face:  CDC agrees to allow 100% vaccinated cruises, Florida agrees to allow the cruise lines to verify compliance – we win but they can both claim that they won...

I don’t think Florida is going to agree to any type of vaccine verification. 

[CI66774]

3 hours ago, Ken the cruiser said:

I predict by May 28th, both parties will come to an equitable solution whereby Celebrity will be afforded the capability to verify all adults over 18 have been fully vaccinated before boarding their applicable Phase 4 restricted cruises sailing from Ft Lauderdale sometime in July. That is my prediction! 😎

 

Don’t see that happening. Florida has a law in place. DeSantis only will relent if a court rules against  the state and FL loses the appeal.

[CI66774]

3 hours ago, nocl said:

Nothing says that mediation will succeed.  A mediation order is not uncommon.  Failure of such mediation is also not uncommon.  At which point it would go back to the court for a ruling.

 

The unknown is how long the mediator will keep at it before he declares the mediation a failure.  The mediator is the only one that can make that decision.

In fact, mediation is incredibly common and mandated in some courts.

[songbird1329]

11 minutes ago, CI66774 said:

No, Florida has not lost. The judge merely has referred the parties to non-binding mediation first. If that fails, he will rule.

Legally Florida has not lost, the case is alive and well, at least until June, if not settled. 
 

But as a practical matter ... if the case is not resolved, we will see a ruling sometime in June, followed by an appeal to the 11th Circuit, and then maybe  a petition for certiorari to SCOTUS.  By the time this matter is resolved in the courts, it will be too late to salvage the summer cruising season.

 

 

That’s why the cruise lines didn’t join the suit.  That’s why they are negotiating with the CDC.

[songbird1329]

10 minutes ago, CI66774 said:

In fact, mediation is incredibly common and mandated in some courts.

Yes, mediation is common, but I have found that it’s far more effective when the parties choose it, rather than when it’s mandated by the courts.

[nocl]

27 minutes ago, CI66774 said:

In fact, mediation is incredibly common and mandated in some courts.

As I said that it is not uncommon.

 

However even though it is ordered does not mean that it will succeed.  A court order to go to mediation is not the same as saying that they must resolve their difference in mediation.  All it means is that they must participate in mediation until either 1. a solution is reached or 2. the mediator determines that it will not succeed.

[Host Jazzbeau]

21 minutes ago, songbird1329 said:

Legally Florida has not lost, the case is alive and well, at least until June, if not settled. 
 

But as a practical matter ... if the case is not resolved, we will see a ruling sometime in June, followed by an appeal to the 11th Circuit, and then maybe  a petition for certiorari to SCOTUS.  By the time this matter is resolved in the courts, it will be too late to salvage the summer cruising season.

 

 

That’s why the cruise lines didn’t join the suit.  That’s why they are negotiating with the CDC.

Meanwhile, ASTA (the American Society of Travel Advisors) is filing an Amicus Curiae brief in support of the States' position.

https://www.travelweekly.com/Travel-News/Travel-Agent-Issues/ASTA-amicus-brief-Florida-Alaska-lawsuit-CDC?ct=cruise