Temperatures in ports

[chloemonkey]

I have tried various sites as I want to know what the weather/temperatures are likely to be on our upcoming cruise.  But the sites that I used and then input each and every port on our itinerary.....all had very DIFFERENT prospective temperatures.

 

So any of you have a reliable site where I can look up temperatures to expect on our upcoming trip? 

 

Thanks!

[Twickenham]

I usually go to Accuweather; on the top menu, you can click on 'Monthly', and choose the month of your visit for the previous year, giving you what the temperatures actually were on a given date.

[LHT28]

the  weather reports  are just  a guess

 one year we were headed to Norway/Europe

 

checked the site it was supposed to be cool

a week before  we left checked again   had to repack for warm weather

it was in the high 80's   most of the trip

 

[crystalspin]

30 minutes ago, LHT28 said:

2 hours ago, chloemonkey said:

So any of you have a reliable site where I can look up temperatures to expect on our upcoming trip? 

 

Weatherspark.com has HISTORICAL data and averages (and more than just temperatures, things like humidity and cloud cover). However, historical and current/coming can be way off in these times. What @LHT28said is also true:

checked the site it was supposed to be cool

a week before  we left checked again   had to repack for warm weather

it was in the high 80's   most of the trip

 

So pack for the expected, but be prepared to change right up to leaving home! (I tend to use Accuweather for current predictions, but it wouldn't hurt to check multiple sources.)

[crystalspin]

3 minutes ago, crystalspin said:

So pack for the expected, but be prepared to change right up to leaving home! (I tend to use Accuweather for current predictions, but it wouldn't hurt to check multiple sources.)

I may be a bit OCD (or CDO in alphabetical order the way it should be!) -- but I often made a calender in an Excel spreadsheet then check and modify the weather forecast (temps and if rain expected) every 2-3 days. And use that to pack clothing and outer garments.

[donaldsc]

1 hour ago, crystalspin said:

Weatherspark.com has HISTORICAL data and averages (and more than just temperatures, things like humidity and cloud cover). However, historical and current/coming can be way off in these times. What @LHT28said is also true:

checked the site it was supposed to be cool

a week before  we left checked again   had to repack for warm weather

it was in the high 80's   most of the trip

 

So pack for the expected, but be prepared to change right up to leaving home! (I tend to use Accuweather for current predictions, but it wouldn't hurt to check multiple sources.)

 

Weatherspark is a climate site and is one of the best ones out there for any trip anywhere.  It should be on any traveler's computer.  As you said - it is not a weather site.  We just completed an AK cruise.  Based on weatherspark we should have cool weather and some rain every day of the cruise.  In reality we had 11 days of sunny weather and only a bit of a drizzle on one of the days.  When we returned we checked the weather forecast of the next week and it was rain every day.  We won and the people on the next one didn't.

 

DON

[sanger727]

How far away is your trip. No one will have good predictions for something more than a few days out. I like accuweather for a rough estimate and historical data. But that's all it is. 

[edinburgher]

We like www.weather.com but as weather precditions can change daily, we check around 10 days before travel but check again 2 or 3 days before travel when we are at the packing stage.

[Joebucks]

1 hour ago, sanger727 said:

How far away is your trip. No one will have good predictions for something more than a few days out. I like accuweather for a rough estimate and historical data. But that's all it is. 

 

If you're trying to predict rain and clouds, I agree, you'd never know. I'd be more inclined to think they are looking between hot and cold.

 

Cold weather ports are a huge buzzkill for me. That first day you are looking to have a good time, and that chilly wind doesn't help. Ending your cruise is also a sad time, it feels like that is escalated when the cold returns the night before.

[sanger727]

25 minutes ago, Joebucks said:

 

If you're trying to predict rain and clouds, I agree, you'd never know. I'd be more inclined to think they are looking between hot and cold.

 

Cold weather ports are a huge buzzkill for me. That first day you are looking to have a good time, and that chilly wind doesn't help. Ending your cruise is also a sad time, it feels like that is escalated when the cold returns the night before.

 

Yes, if they want average temperatures, those are relatively easy to find. If they want to know whether it will be average, warm and sunny, or cool and windy 3 weeks from now; no one knows. 

[ldubs]

1 hour ago, sanger727 said:

 

Yes, if they want average temperatures, those are relatively easy to find. If they want to know whether it will be average, warm and sunny, or cool and windy 3 weeks from now; no one knows. 

 

 

I think weather predictions two to three weeks out are better than a toss of the dart.  

[sanger727]

26 minutes ago, ldubs said:

 

 

I think weather predictions two to three weeks out are better than a toss of the dart.  

only if by ‘better than a toss of the dart’ you mean it’s probably hot in august and probably cold in January. 
 

https://www.wral.com/how-accurate-are-weather-forecasts/19645159/

 

[ldubs]

Just now, sanger727 said:

only if by ‘better than a toss of the dart’ you mean it’s probably hot in august and probably cold in January. 
 

https://www.wral.com/how-accurate-are-weather-forecasts/19645159/

 

 

 

Not talking about averages.  There is a science to weather forecasting.  They are not 100% accurate.   They are pretty good at it when talking about two or three weeks out.   I didn't read all of your link, but the part I saw would support that.  I can say with a high degree of certainty what our weather will be over the next thee weeks.    Sorry, I just didn't agree that "no one knows".  

[sanger727]

49 minutes ago, ldubs said:

 

 

Not talking about averages.  There is a science to weather forecasting.  They are not 100% accurate.   They are pretty good at it when talking about two or three weeks out.   I didn't read all of your link, but the part I saw would support that.  I can say with a high degree of certainty what our weather will be over the next thee weeks.    Sorry, I just didn't agree that "no one knows".  

 

The article said that past 10 days, forecasts are only 50% accurate. They don't become highly accurate until 5-7 days out. There are so many factors at play in weather, no, 2-3 weeks is not very accurate. Certainly not worth using to decide what to wear or pack -beyond, "it's hot in august". 

[Hlitner]

I have long wondered what it would be like to have a decent paying job where you could be wrong at least 50% of the time and still keep your job.  That would be meteorologists and climatologists.   Speaking of climatologists, it is fascinating to go back and look at their predictions from the 1960s on into this century.  For the most part they have been completely wrong.  

 

Like many travelers we do look at the temperature averages for places we plan to go and they are usually accurate + or - 20 degrees :).  The year before COVID we went to Alaska to catch a cruise, but spend a week pre-cruise with a rental car.  We drove up to Denali for a few days (truly wonderful when on your own without a tour group) and we had our layers of close, appropriate hiking gear, etc.  The temps were in the upper 70s to low 80s (we were told that is unusual) and we were hiking around the park in shorts and t-shirts and still sweating  It was the same in Anchorage where folks were miserable because of the lack of A/C.  On the cruise we did finally find some cooler (not cold) weather at Icy strait point.    We never wore the cold weather stuff we had carefully packed!  It has been the same on many of our European trips.  Bottom line is that averages are simply that....averages and are meaningless for many trips.   

 

Hank

[ldubs]

52 minutes ago, sanger727 said:

 

The article said that past 10 days, forecasts are only 50% accurate. They don't become highly accurate until 5-7 days out. There are so many factors at play in weather, no, 2-3 weeks is not very accurate. Certainly not worth using to decide what to wear or pack -beyond, "it's hot in august". 

 

Certainly the accuracy goes down the further out the forecast.   Accuracy is also dependent on the locale and topography.    It would be interesting to see how they measure accuracy.  Certainly it isn't to the degree or to the other extreme rainy vs not rainy.    But yes a fair degree of accuracy predicting hot vs cold, or likely sunny, or likely overcast, or chance of precipitation, windy, etc. etc.  I think I'll stick with the meteorologist.   

[Mike981]

When I was on the radio, I had our staff meteorologist on every morning. We would talk about how once you get past 36-48 hours big changes can happen. I believe in our current climate it is very true. Here in central Minnesota I can look at my 10 day forecast and see no rain for ten days, but we will get "popcorn thunderstorms" pop up at anytime. And don't get me started on the lousy winter forecasts.

It seems that forecasting (guessing) weather is a lot like fishing. There's a reason they don't call it catching.

[donaldsc]

3 hours ago, sanger727 said:

 

The article said that past 10 days, forecasts are only 50% accurate. They don't become highly accurate until 5-7 days out. There are so many factors at play in weather, no, 2-3 weeks is not very accurate. Certainly not worth using to decide what to wear or pack -beyond, "it's hot in august". 

 

A lot of that depends upon where you live.  We live in Las Vegas.  A summer forecast of "sunny w high temps between 100 to 105 degrees" has a really good chance of being right.  LOL!!

 

DON

[ldubs]

9 hours ago, sanger727 said:

 

The article said that past 10 days, forecasts are only 50% accurate. They don't become highly accurate until 5-7 days out. There are so many factors at play in weather, no, 2-3 weeks is not very accurate. Certainly not worth using to decide what to wear or pack -beyond, "it's hot in august". 

 

8 hours ago, ldubs said:

 

Certainly the accuracy goes down the further out the forecast.   Accuracy is also dependent on the locale and topography.    It would be interesting to see how they measure accuracy.  Certainly it isn't to the degree or to the other extreme rainy vs not rainy.    But yes a fair degree of accuracy predicting hot vs cold, or likely sunny, or likely overcast, or chance of precipitation, windy, etc. etc.  I think I'll stick with the meteorologist.   

 

I reread my post and think it sounds too argumentative.  Sorry about that.   In reality, I agree a temp swing of 10 to 20 deg off the forecast, as others have indicated, will make a big difference.