Cruising stocks getting hammered today. (March 2023)

[Straughn]

On 3/9/2023 at 4:58 PM, prmssk said:

You can find or twist a statistic to support just about any claim you want to make.

It’s called “creative accounting.”

[Jim_Iain]

We were earlier talking about Silicon Valley Bank.   They had a run on the bank with $42 Billion being withdrawn as of last night. FDIC  Regulators took over control and will be liquidating all holdings.   It is the Second Largest Bank failure in history. 

[Hoya2112]

The drop in cruise stocks is related to Carnival the company releasing earnings and results underperformed to market expectations.  The line is still losing money and although other publicly traded cruise companies didn’t report today it’s gui,t by association,

[dlh015]

1 hour ago, FRMinBG said:

The drop in cruise stocks is related to Carnival the company releasing earnings and results underperformed to market expectations.  The line is still losing money and although other publicly traded cruise companies didn’t report today it’s gui,t by association,

Isn't that a couple weeks down the road?? Got a link for that?

[BermudaBound2014]

1 hour ago, Jim_Iain said:

We were earlier talking about Silicon Valley Bank.   They had a run on the bank with $42 Billion being withdrawn as of last night. FDIC  Regulators took over control and will be liquidating all holdings.   It is the Second Largest Bank failure in history. 

Whoa!!!
 

Hang on 

[Jim_Iain]

1 hour ago, FRMinBG said:

The drop in cruise stocks is related to Carnival the company releasing earnings and results underperformed to market expectations.  The line is still losing money and although other publicly traded cruise companies didn’t report today it’s gui,t by association,

 

With due respect would not agree.  RCL already reported earnings on February 7 and beat analyst expectations with lower loss than expected and beat street estimates by $0.25 per share.

[Hoya2112]

1 hour ago, dlh015 said:

Isn't that a couple weeks down the road?? Got a link for that?

Clarification-  it was NCL 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/this-cruise-line-cant-turn-you-down-5672d9c9

[NMTraveller]

3 hours ago, Jim_Iain said:

We were earlier talking about Silicon Valley Bank.   They had a run on the bank with $42 Billion being withdrawn as of last night. FDIC  Regulators took over control and will be liquidating all holdings.   It is the Second Largest Bank failure in history. 

Ah yes.  The first shoe to drop due to high interest rates.

 

Did not they call it transitory inflation a year or two ago.  LOL

 

They called it transitory inflation,  but nobody, repeat nobody could explain why it was transitory.  Watch the effects of the choices made a year of two ago.

Edited March 11, 2023 by NMTraveller

[kguerriero]

6 hours ago, Jim_Iain said:

We were earlier talking about Silicon Valley Bank.   They had a run on the bank with $42 Billion being withdrawn as of last night. FDIC  Regulators took over control and will be liquidating all holdings.   It is the Second Largest Bank failure in history. 

 

Some of us had a really fun day finding out if our paychecks would clear this morning 🙃

[Islandbuoy]

On 3/9/2023 at 4:58 PM, prmssk said:

You can find or twist a statistic to support just about any claim you want to make.

Figures lie and liars figure?

[Jim_Iain]

11 hours ago, kguerriero said:

 

Some of us had a really fun day finding out if our paychecks would clear this morning 🙃

 

The ripple effect will really be interesting.    I was reading this morning the Roku has $487 Million in Cash and Cash equivalents in SVB.  

[Fly and Sail]

18 hours ago, Jim_Iain said:

We were earlier talking about Silicon Valley Bank.   They had a run on the bank with $42 Billion being withdrawn as of last night. FDIC  Regulators took over control and will be liquidating all holdings.   It is the Second Largest Bank failure in history. 

 

The CAO (Joseph Gentile) brings the proper credentials for this situation. He was the CFO of Lehman. 😛

[Quo Vadis?]

7 hours ago, Islandbuoy said:

Figures lie and liars figure?

Mark Twain quoting Disraeli: "There are lies, damned lies and statistics"

[Baron Barracuda]

Even with 95% occupancy last quarter RCL still lost $500MM.  They broke even on an operating basis but couldn't cover $400MM in quarterly interest expense.  Debt service will continue to rise as they are forced to refinance maturing debt in a rising interest rate environment.  Scheduled fleet additions will add $ billions in new debt.  Even if the economy avoids recession it will be a very long time before cruise lines return to their 2019 earnings level.

 

 

[NMTraveller]

7 hours ago, Jim_Iain said:

 

The ripple effect will really be interesting.    I was reading this morning the Roku has $487 Million in Cash and Cash equivalents in SVB.  

Ahem, the government this time will not let them fail.

 

Lesson learned...

[SusieAV8R]

On 3/10/2023 at 9:13 PM, Jim_Iain said:

 

With due respect would not agree.  RCL already reported earnings on February 7 and beat analyst expectations with lower loss than expected and beat street estimates by $0.25 per share.

 

1 hour ago, NMTraveller said:

Ahem, the government this time will not let them fail.

 

Lesson learned...

Price is still down from where I bought it.  Sorry I didn't buy when it dropped to $15 😞

[SusieAV8R]

 

Just now, SusieAV8R said:

 

Price is still down from where I bought it.  Sorry I didn't buy when it dropped to $15 😞

 

Just now, SusieAV8R said:

😞

 

Just now, SusieAV8R said:

😞

Gov't won't let them fail??  Are you kidding??  

[SusieAV8R]

7 hours ago, Baron Barracuda said:

Even with 95% occupancy last quarter RCL still lost $500MM.  They broke even on an operating basis but couldn't cover $400MM in quarterly interest expense.  Debt service will continue to rise as they are forced to refinance maturing debt in a rising interest rate environment.  Scheduled fleet additions will add $ billions in new debt.  Even if the economy avoids recession it will be a very long time before cruise lines return to their 2019 earnings level.

 

 

And older ships will be sold.  I have been in the stock market for nearly 50 years now and a lot of shedding will be done.  Printing money is coming back to roost. 

[SusieAV8R]

23 hours ago, NMTraveller said:

Ah yes.  The first shoe to drop due to high interest rates.

 

Did not they call it transitory inflation a year or two ago.  LOL

 

They called it transitory inflation,  but nobody, repeat nobody could explain why it was transitory.  Watch the effects of the choices made a year of two ago.

No, look at the choices made 3+ years ago.  No, look at the lessons not learned from 2008.........

[prmssk]

38 minutes ago, SusieAV8R said:

And older ships will be sold.

There would need to be a buyer for those older ships.  Other cruise lines aren't in any better shape.  And I'm not sure how much they really get from scraping a ship.

[grandgeezer]

3 hours ago, NMTraveller said:

Ahem, the government this time will not let them fail.

 

Lesson learned...

Who’s government? Liberia, where they are flagged? Zero chance of the U.S. will. 
Cruising is not anything needed, that’s proven by the few people who actually do it. It’s discretionary spending, money you have left over after all of life’s needs are met.

[NMTraveller]

1 hour ago, grandgeezer said:

Who’s government? Liberia, where they are flagged? Zero chance of the U.S. will. 
Cruising is not anything needed, that’s proven by the few people who actually do it. It’s discretionary spending, money you have left over after all of life’s needs are met.

The comment was in regards to Silicon Valley Bank...

[NMTraveller]

3 hours ago, SusieAV8R said:

No, look at the choices made 3+ years ago.  No, look at the lessons not learned from 2008.........

The choices made in early 2021 seem to have a direct correlation...

 

Current US Inflation Rates: 2000-2023 | US Inflation Calculator

 

Regarding SVB, the Fed apparently did not learn their lessons from 2008.

Edited March 12, 2023 by NMTraveller

[NMTraveller]

4 hours ago, SusieAV8R said:

 

 

 

Gov't won't let them fail??  Are you kidding??  

The government will not let Silicon Valley Bank fail.  I am not kidding.

 

I would expect the depositors to be made whole.

 

As a taxpayer I am frustrated at the competence of ...

 

Edited March 12, 2023 by NMTraveller

[rmalbers]

On 3/10/2023 at 10:21 AM, ymncruise said:

Silicon Valley Bank Failure?

Yup, you're right!