Zika Repercussions

Was just reading about this summers Olympics and how the Zika virus could severely impact the people going to Brazil. Prices to many South American destinations have already been dropping. How will the cruise industry respond? Not at all? I know cruises tend to skew a little older but probably not as much in these areas. Lowered fares on cruises to affected areas? That might provide some value opportunities for those not at risk. Or re-positioning? Seems hard to do with advanced bookings. Just curious what people think.

What would you have the cruise lines do? Go to Alaska in the winter? How about a cruise to Norway in February! The bottom line is that Zika will soon be exist throughout the Caribbean, and much of Central and South America. Here in Mexico we have only had a handfull of cases and they are nearly all in a very southern state (that borders Guatemala). It would be like a few cases in Florida would stop travel to New England. Go figure.

Hank

Hmm, your reply seems a bit combative Hlitner. Maybe you don't mean for it to be and it's just that forums don't allow for tone or inflection.

Anyway, I have no say in what they do. Market forces may or may not force some actions though, just as they have for South American tourist destinations. Given that cruising is a worldwide enterprise, I'm sure it comes up much more often. Perhaps there really is no good answer, I just don't know.

I was just asking what others thought. Perhaps some people here remember similar outbreaks and we can learn from it. Let's say you were planning an early fall Caribbean cruise and knew that during a similar outbreak (or perception of same), Celebrity had discounted fares by 40% 90 days out. Wouldn't you want to know that?

I have a cruise booked with Celebrity this spring and the news of Zika popped up shortly after my final payment date. On our cruise, all of our ports have Zika warnings. And although this virus has been deemed to be more dangerous for pregnant women, it is still not clear as to whether or not there is an association with Guillain-Barre Syndrome....which can be quite serious although somewhat rare. If they do determine that GBS is related to mosquitoes carrying the Zika virus, I would probably have to really consider canceling my cruise. Celebrity is already offering pregnant women a change of itinerary without penalty, although I haven't seen tons of pregnant women while sailing on Celebrity so that offering may not be having a huge impact.

With all that being said, yes, I have noticed a decline in the price of my sailing....maybe this is just normal but now I also see a lot more cabins that have opened up. I do believe that you are onto something and as people cancel or don't look to book sailings in the affected areas, prices will most likely come down or maybe even itineraries will be changed in the future. Time will tell.

Hmm, your reply seems a bit combative Hlitner. Maybe you don't mean for it to be and it's just that forums don't allow for tone or inflection.

 

Anyway, I have no say in what they do. Market forces may or may not force some actions though, just as they have for South American tourist destinations. Given that cruising is a worldwide enterprise, I'm sure it comes up much more often. Perhaps there really is no good answer, I just don't know.

 

I was just asking what others thought. Perhaps some people here remember similar outbreaks and we can learn from it. Let's say you were planning an early fall Caribbean cruise and knew that during a similar outbreak (or perception of same), Celebrity had discounted fares by 40% 90 days out. Wouldn't you want to know that?

Are some people not cruising where Zika is heavy? Absolutely. But it is rampant in Polynesia and the area along with Central and South America. Most cruisers are 50+ and not subject to the big birth defect issue, but it only takes a few for demand to drop.

Don't understand your response as Hiltner simply gave an opinion and Zika is likely to return in full force to Florida and Texas. The problem is schedules are written mostly in stone a couple years out. Little the lines can do. The result might well be a bunch of great deals on cruising to the tropics in the Americas.

The media is seriously over reporting on the Zika issue. If I were planning a pregnancy in the next 3 months or was in the 1st trimester I would be cautious. However, I have no plans to even think about canceling travel. If you think prices would drop, I say go ahead and take advantage. As an aside, you can get GBS from so many things the fear of Zika is unwarranted.

If demand is down prices will go down.

Don't think the medics is over reporting on this.

Actually in the USA they are spending more time on nonsense (politics) but that is a separate issue.

Keith

Remember how the world was going to end because of Ebola? The media was all over it and got everyone riled up about canceling travel etc.? And then the world DIDN'T end, and the media forgot about Ebola because something else popped up to report on and that was that. I suspect this will be similar. The media will hype it until there is something else to talk about and then it will be yesterday's news.

Are some people not cruising where Zika is heavy? Absolutely. But it is rampant in Polynesia and the area along with Central and South America. Most cruisers are 50+ and not subject to the big birth defect issue, but it only takes a few for demand to drop.

 

Don't understand your response as Hiltner simply gave an opinion and Zika is likely to return in full force to Florida and Texas. The problem is schedules are written mostly in stone a couple years out. Little the lines can do. The result might well be a bunch of great deals on cruising to the tropics in the Americas.

Do you have a link to this "rampant" outbreak in Polynesia? The only thing I see is Samoa, American Samoa & Tonga. Far from rampant. They had major issues back in 2013, but no issues now.

Just for the record for those going to the area:

"There hasn't been a laboratory confirmed case in French Polynesia since April of 2014."

We sail today on the Reflection to the Western Caribbean. I received a text, email, and voicemail from Celebrity last week regarding the Zika virus, and advising pregnant women to call with concerns. I have heard tha that celebrity is allowing pregnant women to cancel with no penalty. I bought 20% picairdin mosquito repellent.

Remember how the world was going to end because of Ebola? The media was all over it and got everyone riled up about canceling travel etc.? And then the world DIDN'T end, and the media forgot about Ebola because something else popped up to report on and that was that. I suspect this will be similar. The media will hype it until there is something else to talk about and then it will be yesterday's news.

Ebola reporting dropped because the number of cases dropped as control became much more effective. Not because the media moved on to something else. The media is absolutely showing due diligence in their coverage of this issue as well.

Ebola reporting dropped because the number of cases dropped as control became much more effective. Not because the media moved on to something else. The media is absolutely showing due diligence in their coverage of this issue as well.

You hit the nail on the head!! I commend the media for showing due diligence. Ebola could have stood out as being an international catastrophe if they had not gotten it under control. We'd all be singing a different story then.

Yes, GBS is caused by a lot of different things, some of which remain unknown at this time. If, in the future, there was to be a proven correlation between GBS and the Zika virus, it will be a reason for me to consider whether or not I will travel to the affected areas. This has not been proven at this point but only suggested. For now, will purchase bug spray and take my chances.

Well, setting aside the very serious Zika-pregnancy complication issue, some folks here seem to be forgetting a couple of important facts:

- There have always been mosquitoes in the Caribbean and the cruise ports of Mexico/Central America;

- There have always been mosquito-borne illnesses, such as: malaria, chikungunya, and dengue fever (aka: bone-break fever) in those areas, as well.

And, although those mosquito-vectored maladies are not currently making the media's "disease of the week" list, right now -- I wouldn't particularly want to come down with any of them! :eek: It's a concern, but it doesn't stop us from cruising to those areas. We just carry DEET-based insect repellent -- especially if we are going inland, any distance from the coast. :cool:

We sail today on the Reflection to the Western Caribbean. I received a text, email, and voicemail from Celebrity last week regarding the Zika virus, and advising pregnant women to call with concerns. I have heard tha that celebrity is allowing pregnant women to cancel with no penalty. I bought 20% picairdin mosquito repellent.

Is that repellent better than DEET?

I wouldn't consider going if pregnant or if that were a future possibility. However I am watching for bargains. DH might be a hard sell. People may cancel out of generalized fear.

Because cruising is an international enterprise for Celebrity, they have some experience with this type of issue. Maybe because of media attention, (and I acknowledge this might be more of a perceived threat than actual one) or maybe because of greater prevalence, they have taken that added precaution of allowing pregnant woman to cancel, a move the Celebrity should be applauded for. It is always nice when a corporation puts customer health and safety above corporate profits. Still, if cancellations and/or less than expected reservations become a trend, my original question was what might be the result. I think it means some very good discounts as sailing dates get closer. I had hoped some might remember similar circumstances and share that experience.

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Zikas been around for years. It's all hype.

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Is that repellent better than DEET?

I wouldn't consider going if pregnant or if that were a future possibility. However I am watching for bargains. DH might be a hard sell. People may cancel out of generalized fear.

DEET based repellents are best but got to remember DEET is a known carcinogen so everything is a trade off. For reasonably healthy adults who are not and not likely to be pregnant the possibility of Zika causing damage is remote.

As another said Zika is not new, but rather the current news fad. Some countries showed 70%+ of the population as having had it and most never knew. Sort of like a few years ago thousands had TMJ or carpel tunnel. today the incidence of those maladies is down by some 80%.

Imo all these mosquito born illness need attention with taking repellents with you just to be on the safe side ;)

The alarming threat to the cruise industry now is the worlds economies .:eek: They are all shrinking including the USA .This is the biggest threat to the cruise industry ,it's sales & profits . just follow the RCL & CCL symbols of stocks on the NY stock exchange & that will give you a clearer picture;)

Is that repellent better than DEET?

I wouldn't consider going if pregnant or if that were a future possibility. However I am watching for bargains. DH might be a hard sell. People may cancel out of generalized fear.

The most effective repellant tested last year by Consumer Reports contained picaridin as the active ingredient:

http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/health/beauty-personal-care/insect-repellent/insect-repellent-ratings/ratings-overview.htm

The most effective repellant tested last year by Consumer Reports contained picaridin as the active ingredient:

 

http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/health/beauty-personal-care/insect-repellent/insect-repellent-ratings/ratings-overview.htm

But the reviews on it are certainly mixed, aren't they? In my case using any repellent depends on the whereabouts of my wife. If she's nearby, I could smear perfume all over me and know that nary an insect would bother me. She, on the other hand, would attract every bug within a mile. :D I feel sorry for her, but some folks are a magnet.

But the reviews on it are certainly mixed, aren't they? In my case using any repellent depends on the whereabouts of my wife. If she's nearby, I could smear perfume all over me and know that nary an insect would bother me. She, on the other hand, would attract every bug within a mile. :D I feel sorry for her, but some folks are a magnet.

Actually, most reviews are very positive, but there are always some naysayers. The only problem with picaridin-based repellants in Canada is that picaridin was only approved for use a couple or so years ago so it's not yet easy to come by. Amazon.ca is selling the top-rated Sawyer for $63.90, while the US site sells the same bottle for $8.05. I'll bring a bottle of DEET in March and look for some Sawyer in Miami pre cruise.

Obviously been on Many tours and water based activities and live in Florida, and fished the "Mosquito" areas and I live on a lake in Central Florida. In the Caribbean, I cannot recall a Mosquito, in a port, maybe some in a heavily vegetated area. In the Keys of Florida and my house on the lake, mosquitos are mostly at dusk and night and yes they can be hungry. I know they say this variety bites in the day time, but the bug must find a person with Zika and have lunch and want a dessert from another body, so the risk to Cruisers IMHO is very small, especially if some precautions are taken.

Obviously been on Many tours and water based activities and live in Florida, and fished the "Mosquito" areas and I live on a lake in Central Florida. In the Caribbean, I cannot recall a Mosquito, in a port, maybe some in a heavily vegetated area. In the Keys of Florida and my house on the lake, mosquitos are mostly at dusk and night and yes they can be hungry. I know they say this variety bites in the day time, but the bug must find a person with Zika and have lunch and want a dessert from another body, so the risk to Cruisers IMHO is very small, especially if some precautions are taken.

The World Health Organization reported local transmission of chikungunya in Saint Martin in December 2013. This was the first time that local transmission of chikungunya had been reported in the Americas. Two years later, chikungunya is endemic in the Caribbean, present in at least 25 countries, including the majority visited by cruise lines. The local transmission of Zika, now identified in 10 Caribbean countries, continues to spread in similar fashion, and anyone who believes the risk of transmission to cruisers is very small is simply ignoring the facts. At minimum, an effective mosquito repellant needs to be used to help mitigate the threat.