Australia $ Value, Economic Direction?

[MicCanberra]

Yahoo!!!!!! 13 days until I land in Hawaii, lets see if we can squeeze a few more cents closer to parity :D I can see my spending money budget increasing lol.

 

The US reserve amended their growth figures for the next 18 months or so hopefully that means they won't wind back stimulus any time soon and we go back to parity. Not good for Terry's Jan trip but great for any of us cruising overseas :D

 

Yes, it is just as we hoped but not what Terry had. AUD sitting on $0.9523 at the mo.:D

[MicCanberra]

Aussie dollar, per Wall Street Journal is now showing at $.9500. Surprise!! Not sure what is or is not happening. Will post more here as it become more clear for why, when and how.

 

THANKS! Enjoy! Terry in Ohio

 

Yes, a bit more uncertainty in the USD and the rest of the world reacts. It may drop again before Xmas.:D

[Pushka]

Thank you USA. Also means our share market will rattle along. As will China manufacturing for the US market. It's a double bonus as USA is showing signs of recovery as well. However the value of the Carnival shares OBC reduces. Unless that's in Pounds. Maybe it is for Cunard anyways?

[icat2000]

Yes, a bit more uncertainty in the USD and the rest of the world reacts. It may drop again before Xmas.:D

 

It seems to be more about the US dollar has softened and things maybe not as rosy there as previously portrayed.

[The_Big_M]

Aussie dollar, per Wall Street Journal is now showing at $.9500. Surprise!! Not sure what is or is not happening. Will post more here as it become more clear for why, when and how.

 

It was the announcement I referred to here: http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showpost.php?p=39973113&postcount=563

 

No surprise to some :-)

[The_Big_M]

It seems to be more about the US dollar has softened and things maybe not as rosy there as previously portrayed.

 

Don't read it that way. They're still doing better, but the issue is that that growth has been supported by the ongoing stimulus. Some people don't like government support to stop.

 

Quite like here really! :cool:

[MicCanberra]

Don't read it that way. They're still doing better, but the issue is that that growth has been supported by the ongoing stimulus. Some people don't like government support to stop.

 

Quite like here really! :cool:

 

Yep, I certainly enjoy being stimulated.:rolleyes:

Edited September 18, 2013 by MicCanberra

[TLCOhio]

On the rising Aussie dollar, it's all about the shrinking or diluted value of the U.S. dollar. Sorry! Current WSJ morning rate at $.9512 for the Australian dollar. I won't get political here, but there are lots of issues and questions about ALL of these things.

 

From the Wall Street Journal this morning as their lead story, they have these headlines that summarize it all: "Fed Stays the Course on Easy Money. Policy Makers Cite Sluggish Economy, Washington Gridlock in Standing Pat".

 

Here are the highlights from this story: "Seeing a more uneven economic climate than they expected and the potential for fiscal discord in Washington, Federal Reserve officials got cold feet Wednesday and decided to keep their signature easy-money program in place for the time being. The move, coming after Fed officials spent months alerting the public that they might begin to pare their $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program at the September policy meeting, marks the latest in a string of striking turnabouts from Washington policy makers that have whipsawed markets in recent days. Mr. Obama's former economic adviser, Lawrence Summers, on Sunday bowed out of consideration to run the Fed amid mounting resistance from liberal Senate Democrats. Now, the Fed says it will carry on with a program investors had nervously been anticipating for months could gradually disappear."

 

In the past months as the Australian dollar has fallen, it has been more about questions over the China economy, Aussie exports, their elections down under, etc. Now, the finger on these economic questions point "OUR" way. It looks like we'll need to dig a little deeper into our wallet for our Jan. 2014 visit to Australia than how things looked with the Aussie dollar dropped to around 89 cents. Yesterday, I was at a luncheon in Columbus where the speaker was Washington Post columnist and frequent TV commentator E. J. Dionne. He's more liberal than me, but he had some excellent insights and comments on these "battles" now going on over the economy, how to get it growing again, etc. His latest book, ‘Our Divided Political Heart’, just came out and you can read a review below from the New York Times. That Times story notes he: "has ascended to a sufficiently elevated plane of the Higher Punditry that his author’s biography no longer mentions he received a doctorate from Oxford, where he was a Rhodes scholar. He still comes across as a precocious student, bubbling with boyish charm and enthusiasm for ideas, though sometimes a bit glib and preening. His books are clever, upbeat and interesting, particularly when he examines current political concerns through the lens of history, religion and philosophy." I had a chance to sit at his table at this luncheon, chat with him before and after his speech, etc. That NY Times description does fit on his charm, personality, style. Very interesting questions on the our economy and role of government in a "market-driven" economy, but no easy, quick answers or solutions.

 

From the Melbourne Age, Sidney Morning Herald and other Fairfax newspapers in Australia today, they have this headline: "Australian dollar soars on US Fed stimulus news" with these highlights: "The Australian dollar has soared past 95 US cents, its highest level in three months, surging more than 1.5 US cents after the Federal Reserve surprised financial markets by keeping its stimulus program unchanged. The currency gained 1.5 per cent in just a few seconds, to a level not seen since mid-June. 'It clearly caught markets by surprise, even as expectations were pared back in recent weeks,' said Westpac's chief currency strategist Robert Rennie. 'The street was badly caught out by the Fed's decision. Risks for the US dollar are very clearly to the downside, and that means Aussie could push yet higher.' "

 

Full stories at:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324492604579083243936441418.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTTopStories

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/30/books/review/our-divided-political-heart-by-e-j-dionne-jr.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

http://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/currencies/australian-dollar-soars-on-us-fed-stimulus-news-20130919-2u0dr.html

 

THANKS! Enjoy! Terry in Ohio

 

Did a June 7-19, 2011, Celebrity Solstice cruise from Barcelona that had stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik. Enjoyed great weather and a wonderful trip. Dozens of wonderful visuals with key highlights, tips, comments, etc., on these postings. We are now at 142,229 views for this live/blog re-cap on our first sailing with Celebrity and much on wonderful Barcelona. Check these postings and added info at:

http://www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474

[NSWP]

Thanks Terry in Ohio, some good news for us travelling overseas soon. I want USD, Pounds and Euros.

 

Some financial experts are predicting parity with the USD by the end of the year, it would be nice.

 

As I speak One little Aussie Battler = US 94.44 cents.

Edited September 19, 2013 by NSWP

[TLCOhio]

Thanks Terry in Ohio, some good news for us travelling overseas soon. I want USD, Pounds and Euros. Some financial experts are predicting parity with the USD by the end of the year, it would be nice. As I speak One little Aussie Battler = US 94.44 cents.

 

Appreciate the comments from Les. In checking this morning from the Wall Street Journal website, they have the Aussie dollar at $0.9428. That's a little "improvement" or "bad news", depending on your wishes/needs compared to yesterday. Lots of time between now and January to see where this "roller coast" goes before we have to pay for some ground options/costs in Australia and NZ as we do our pre-travels before the Sydney to Auckland Solstice cruise, Jan. 20-Feb. 3.

 

From the Canberra Times, Sidney Morning Herald and other Fairfax newspapers in Australia today, I see that they have this headline: "Parity still far away for dollar" with these highlights: "Currency strategists are reviewing their year-end forecasts for the Australian dollar after its renewed buoyancy following the US Federal Reserve’s surprise decision not to cut stimulus, but do not expect it to return to parity with the US dollar. The National Australia Bank’s currency strategists revised upwards their forecasts for December 2013 from 86 to 92 US cents. The higher forecasts are driven by expectations of an improving Chinese economy, the rise of some hard commodity export prices and the support for emerging markets that the Fed's decision has given, NAB currency strategist Ray Attrill said in a research note. The Australian dollar breached the 95 US cents level yesterday morning after a surprise move by the Fed to delay its tapering plans sent the US dollar tumbling. While the Australian dollar was expected to stay at elevated levels in the short term, Commonwealth Bank currency strategist Peter Dragicevich said the Fed’s announcement 'in our view just delays the inevitable'. 'It doesn't change the trend so we don't expect the Aussie to drift too much higher from current levels,' Mr Dragicevich said. He added that he did not envisage any reviewed forecasts from the CBA’s new figures would vary drastically from the bank's current year-end forecast of 92 US cents."

 

Full story at:

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/markets/currencies/parity-still-far-away-brfor-dollar-20130920-2u4q6.html

 

THANKS! Enjoy! Terry in Ohio

 

For details and visuals, etc., from our July 1-16, 2010, Norway Coast/Fjords/Arctic Circle cruise experience from Copenhagen on the Silver Cloud, check out this posting. This posting is now at 118,496 views.

http://www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1227923

[TLCOhio]

The Aussie dollar has dropped below 93 cents today. In just checking the Wall Street Journal on-line, it is at $0.9292. Have not posted here recently, but our Jan. 20-Feb. 3, 2014, Sydney to Auckland is getting much closer. Less than two months till we depart to start our Aussie travels in Cairns, Auckland, etc. Any added insights, key points of wisdom, etc., from those living in Australia and NZ?

 

From SkyNews in Australia within the past two hours, they have this headline: "Aus dollar falls amid tapering fears" with these highlights: "The Australian dollar is lower amid fears that tapering of US economic stimulus could begin soon. At seven o'clock this morning (AEDT), the dollar was trading at 92.97 US cents, down from 93.32 cents yesterday. The US dollar has rallied since better-than-expected jobs data on Friday night, which has renewed expectations that the US Federal Reserve will begin winding back its economic stimulus program soon. Westpac chief currency strategist in New York Richard Franulovich says a disappointing business survey today, showing a sharp fall in business confidence in October, also drove the Australian dollar lower."

 

Full story at:

http://www.skynews.com.au/businessnews/article.aspx?id=924010&vId=4226000&cId=Business

 

THANKS! Enjoy! Terry in Ohio

 

Did a June 7-19, 2011, Celebrity Solstice cruise from Barcelona that had stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik. Enjoyed great weather and a wonderful trip. Dozens of wonderful visuals with key highlights, tips, comments, etc., on these postings. We are now at 146,786 views for this live/blog re-cap on our first sailing with Celebrity and much on wonderful Barcelona. Check these postings and added info at:

http://www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474

[NSWP]

Thanks Terry in Ohio, I need to buy a lot of USD, GBP and Euro soon for our big adventure next Feb/March/April/May. Hope the little Aussie battler goes back up or I will not be able to contribute as much to the South American, US, British and EU economies. LOL. By jove they need it.

Edited November 13, 2013 by NSWP

[MicCanberra]

The amazing thing is it just seems to hover around between $0.92 and $0.94 USD and changes daily due to influences from around the globe and is not really showing any signs of having either dropping further or rising further.:D

[The_Big_M]

Actually, it's been up to 0.97 the past few weeks, but has been on a downhill trend since then. This isn't surprising given the 0.97 resistance level.

[Jacs]

The shutdown boosted it for a couple of weeks, whilst we were on our cruise actually, then has been dropping since we got back. Works out alright actually, hit the ATM's in Hawaii while dollar was high, exchange leftover cash and casino winnings when dollar is low :D

[MicCanberra]

The shutdown boosted it for a couple of weeks, whilst we were on our cruise actually, then has been dropping since we got back. Works out alright actually, hit the ATM's in Hawaii while dollar was high, exchange leftover cash and casino winnings when dollar is low :D

Or kept such cash for the future (my guess is that it will drop eventually) .:D

[NSWP]

Ah, it is good that Terry in Ohio keeps us informed. Terry is coming to Oz soon I think. Terry enjoy !!

[MicCanberra]

Ah, it is good that Terry in Ohio keeps us informed. Terry is coming to Oz soon I think. Terry enjoy !!

 

Yes, 20 January 2014.:D

[TLCOhio]

Ah, it is good that Terry in Ohio keeps us informed. Terry is coming to Oz soon I think. Terry enjoy !!

 

MicCanberra: Yes' date=' 20 January 2014. [/quote']

 

YES, Jan. 20, 2014, is when our Solstice cruise starts. BUT, we arrive in Australia on Jan. 12, doing Cairns and Great Barrier Reef for four nights and then to Adelaide and Kangaroo Island. Then two and a half days in Sydney. Then, our first port after departing from that great harbor, will be Hobart, Tasmania. Decent amount of spending in Australia and we all like to spend less. But, we understand how that dropping Aussie dollar can hit those who are traveling overseas.

 

In checking the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) this morning, I was surprised by the sharp drop down of the Aussie dollar to $0.9168. That's a big overnight drop. Personally, I am hoping for around 89 cents by mid January. Will it happen?

 

From The Australian newspaper (connected with NewsCorp and the WSJ) in Australia within the past four hours, they have this headline: "Australian dollar slides to three-month on RBA jawboning" with these highlights: "The local currency lost almost US1c yesterday after meeting minutes revealed the US Federal Reserve expected to taper its economic stimulus program 'in coming months'. The Aussie dollar continued on a downward spiral today following a speech from RBA governor Glenn Stevens reiterating the RBA's view that the currency remains 'uncomfortably high'. 'The Aussie has fallen more than a cent since (the speech),' Westpac senior currency strategist Sean Callow said. The RBA really started its very tangible increase in jawboning, seemingly to talk down the Aussie, on October 29 when Glenn Stevens delivered a speech that made many references to the Aussie being too high."

 

Other guesses and intelligence for what will happen in a little less than two months?

 

Full story at:

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/australian-dollar-slides-to-three-month-on-rba-jawboning/story-e6frg916-1226766322572

 

THANKS for the good wishes! Yes, we look forward to experiences your great country and wonderful areas of the world. Enjoy! Terry in Ohio

 

For details and visuals, etc., from our July 1-16, 2010, Norway Coast/Fjords/Arctic Circle cruise experience from Copenhagen on the Silver Cloud, check out this posting. This posting is now at 125,055 views.

http://www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1227923

[MicCanberra]

Hi Terry, Yes, the AUD has dropped 3 cents in the last couple of days.

The RBA is trying their darnedest to get it lower, so who knows how low it will be by February.:D

Edited November 23, 2013 by MicCanberra

[The_Big_M]

The taper concern was actually the biggest impact, though the RBA jawboning added to the impact. A cumulative effect.

 

At this point there's potential weakness to the 0.90 level, but it would be easy to overshoot to 0.89. That's near term though... a lot can happen in your 2 months timeframe!

[NSWP]

Us heading out of OZ are not as happy with the currencies as Terry is coming in.

[SPacificbound]

TLSOhio- We spent almost eight weeks in Australia prior to sailing out of Sydney on Rhapsody earlier this year.

 

We found gasoline to be more expensive, which was expected, and restaurants also more expensive. Australia is not a tipping society, so instead of the 20% tip we usually leave for good service in the US, you will not need to tip, which reduces the sticker shock somewhat in restaurants.

 

The way we looked at it the exchange rate between the US dollar and Australian dollar was pretty much a wash. You would have to be planning to spend a whole lot of money if an exchange rate difference of a couple of pennies was going to make much of an impact.

 

Enjoy your time in Australia. It is a fantastic and beautiful country with wonderful people. We were fortunate to be able to spend as much time as we did, but even so I was not ready to leave. I love Australia and was lucky to see a whole lot of it. :)

 

You will be visiting some of the places that we did, and loved. Have a wonderful trip!

Edited November 24, 2013 by SPacificbound

[MicCanberra]

TLSOhio- We spent almost eight weeks in Australia prior to sailing out of Sydney on Rhapsody earlier this year.

 

We found gasoline to be more expensive, which was expected, and restaurants also more expensive. Australia is not a tipping society, so instead of the 20% tip we usually leave for good service in the US, you will not need to tip, which reduces the sticker shock somewhat in restaurants.

 

The way we looked at it the exchange rate between the US dollar and Australian dollar was pretty much a wash. You would have to be planning to spend a whole lot of money if an exchange rate difference of a couple of pennies was going to make much of an impact.

 

Enjoy your time in Australia. It is a fantastic and beautiful country with wonderful people. We were fortunate to be able to spend as much time as we did, but even so I was not ready to leave. I love Australia and was lucky to see a whole lot of it. :)

 

You will be visiting some of the places that we did, and loved. Have a wonderful trip!

 

Thanks for coming and I am so glad you had a wonderful time. You will have to come back again in the future so you can see some more of this magnificent country or revisit some of the places you have been.:D

Edited November 24, 2013 by MicCanberra

[NSWP]

TLSOhio- We spent almost eight weeks in Australia prior to sailing out of Sydney on Rhapsody earlier this year.

 

We found gasoline to be more expensive, which was expected, and restaurants also more expensive. Australia is not a tipping society, so instead of the 20% tip we usually leave for good service in the US, you will not need to tip, which reduces the sticker shock somewhat in restaurants.

 

The way we looked at it the exchange rate between the US dollar and Australian dollar was pretty much a wash. You would have to be planning to spend a whole lot of money if an exchange rate difference of a couple of pennies was going to make much of an impact.

 

Enjoy your time in Australia. It is a fantastic and beautiful country with wonderful people. We were fortunate to be able to spend as much time as we did, but even so I was not ready to leave. I love Australia and was lucky to see a whole lot of it. :)

 

You will be visiting some of the places that we did, and loved. Have a wonderful trip!

Thanks for your kind words and it is great that you enjoyed your time in Australia.

 

Makes us feel proud.