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ESCAPE - September 9th Bermuda - TS/H Florence

Formula280SS

By Formula280SS,
in Norwegian Cruise Line

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Formula280SS

Formula280SS

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What have you been looking at that shows it will not be a smooth ride? I get that you want the cruise cancelled (you've been saying that for days now), but I have not seen any ocean models that show this will be a rough ride. At patches, sure (but it is like that on any cruise) but not the whole trip. I'll trust the NOAA models that put the wave heights at 5-10ft Mon-Thurs.

 

Also, some people seem to be forgetting that, at present, Florence is a TS not a hurricane and, although it is expected to regain strength Sun/Monday it will not regain major hurricane strength until Wed at the earliest and by that point we will be long past her. Those are important facts that you don't see on the warning cone maps, but they have a HUGE impact on wave height and expansion.

 

Also, as of 8 am her forward momentum has slowed further (7mph), so even if she picks up speed now (still not predicted) there is no way she would close the gap and intensify rapidly enough to change the wave forecast. Again, it most certainly could get a little dicy on Sat night on the way back into NY (predicted to be about 20ft as a result of Florence remnants), but I'll take those 2 evenings.

 

Hell our first cruise to Bermuda in September 2015 there was no hurricanes at all but the seas were still 25-30ft from some low pressure systems jostling around. This is all just a long way of saying NOAA thinks your wrong and I'm going to go with them. If you do end up cruising with us this weekend I really hope you can relax and I hope the weather cooperates and you have a nice vacation.

 

Thank you for the input on the WAVES; with so little (NONE) coming from the cruise lines, such INFORMATION IS INVALUABLE.

 

Please continue to weigh in, as well as others who have more experience than we do.

 

Your point of the SOUTHWEST QUARTER makes so much sense as it would be complimentary to the tough NORTHEAST QUARTER. Never thought of that.

 

Again, thanks.

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CruisewithKids2018

CruisewithKids2018

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If you do end up cruising with us this weekend I really hope you can relax and I hope the weather cooperates and you have a nice vacation.

 

Enavigo you're sailing on Escape the 9th? Whats your room # so I can speak to you if your theory goes to hell in a handbasket? Ill raid your mini bar. lol like I said if it were just me and my wife Id gamble but Im thinking of my children now. I feel for those that would lose 100% of their money but I live on LI and we have the insurance and can just reschedule the trip for another time at a small cost.

Prayers....

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Enavigo

Enavigo

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Enavigo you're sailing on Escape the 9th? Whats your room # so I can speak to you if your theory goes to hell in a handbasket? Ill raid your mini bar. lol like I said if it were just me and my wife Id gamble but Im thinking of my children now. I feel for those that would lose 100% of their money but I live on LI and we have the insurance and can just reschedule the trip for another time at a small cost.

Prayers....

 

We're in the Haven in a DOS (so if the ship is rocking we'll feel it the worst! Ha

 

That said, I completely understand that the dynamics change with children and you have to do what you think is in their best interest. Living so close to the port and having the insurance certainly eliminates most of the variables for you. We did sail once with my nephews in choppy seas on the Disney Dream when they were 6 and 4. When the boat started rocking we told them both "weeee, isn't this fun? Just like a never-ending ride!" The 4 year old loved it, but the 6 year old just looked at me with those "who are you trying to fool" eyes.

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shof515 "Live from...." Rare

shof515

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According to the news, Florence weaken to a tropical storm and might straighten again. this is the current path:

084758_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

 

 

Looks like it is a really really bad idea to re-route the ships down south to the bahamas where they are sailing into the storm. Bermuda now appears to be safest option to avoid the storms.

 

The ride back to NY is going to be rough and rocky, expect the worse.

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Enavigo

Enavigo

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According to the news, Florence weaken to a tropical storm and might straighten again. this is the current path:

084758_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

 

 

Looks like it is a really really bad idea to re-route the ships down south to the bahamas where they are sailing into the storm. Bermuda now appears to be safest option to avoid the storms.

 

The ride back to NY is going to be rough and rocky, expect the worse.

 

There are so many wrong things about your post it is just impossible to know where to start. NCL clearly made the best choice they could. Bermuda is already experiencing rough surf and swells that are expected to sustain through next Thursday because they are on the wrong side of the storm (you never want to be on the north east side). We will be well past the storm and on it's southwest side by the time it comes anywhere near the east coast.

 

Also, if you really look at the NHC chart you can see how hurricane winds do not proliferate spherically. You see in the chart how they bulge out to the east/northeast/north? Notice how the wind wall abruptly terminates on the west/southwest side of the storm? That's not an error in the chart, that is just plain old science. And even if you think NCL made a mistake, every other cruise scheduled to depart the east coast to Bermuda this week is rerouted and most are heading to the Bahamas (noticeably excluding the Dawn, but for that cruise Fri-Fri that also seems like the right decision). I'll trust the NHC, NOAA and the cruise lines over anyone posting their opinion on this board.

 

Now, will this cruise be perfect conditions? No, of course not, but "expect the worst"? Please. Stop the fear mongering, people are under enough stress already without needing to confront opinions that lack a factual basis.

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Enavigo

Enavigo

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There is no basis to trust the cruise lines! They have a long history of making the wrong decisions.

 

Fair enough, but I'll still go with the National Hurricane Center and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration over the uneducated opinions of people on this board. If we were on a Fri-Fri cruise I would think maybe Canada would be better, but for next week coming back to NY from the north would put us on the north side of the storm (if it curves back out to sea or goes up the coast).

 

I just checked the 11 am NOAA models and it still shows nothing more than 5-10ft for atlantic seaboard Mon and FL and Bahamas Tues-Thurs. Also, being on the backside of a hurricane heading back is NOT the same as trailing a winter storm. Hurricane damage fans outward and forward primarily. Winter storms are a whole different animal.

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shof515 "Live from...." Rare

shof515

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I'll trust the NHC, NOAA and the cruise lines over anyone posting their opinion on this board.

Cruise line weather people is like the same weather people you see on the local new stations/cable tv weather channel shows. They all use the same NHC, NOAA models and make predictions on where the storm can go/what can happen. Everyone can do the same thing too. Weather is always unpredictable. no one is perfect

 

The only thing we can is look at the models, estimate how severe the storm is and button down the hatches and expect the worse.

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MaryZ

MaryZ

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My wife and I with our 10 and 7 year old are booked on this cruise. Ive been urging my wife to cancel due to the obvious reasons. I feel the seas no matter our port are going to be rough to say the least the whole time. We have the insurance and were told we can reschedule although there would be a 25% penalty. Im fine with that because I do not want my children to be scared in anyway and seeing some videos of cruise ships in storms has made my decision easy. My wife says "storms are unpredictable so it could be nice"

I love her but at times shes stubborn.

If we were alone Id say lets roll the dice but if my children had anything less than a dream vacation it would devestate me.

Any words of advice or encouragement? Thanks all.

C U @ sea????

 

If it's any consolation, kids usually do better than adults in rough seas. With the exception of if you know they get carsick.

 

Kids will take your cues and if you just act like this is all ok, they'll be ok. But make sure you take the boninie or drammine that your pediatrician says is safe for them. Just in case. And remember ginger ale, not pepsi if they feel sick.

 

 

 

I was on the Breakaway during the new years storm and it was the worst we've ever been in. But I'm leaving shortly for the same ship on a transatlantic back to NY. So it may have been really really bad but obviously not bad enough that I didn't rebook on the same ship. I've cruised on the Bliss TA since then and on the escape to bermuda.

 

 

30 miles south of me off long island the wave height is only 3.3 right now. It's slightly windy 19mph gusts but I can't see it being very bad tomorrow. You'll be fine.

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PelicanBill

PelicanBill

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I've been watching tropical storms and cruise line behavior for years. They often do not tell the whole story. It is regrettable they did not wait longer as Bermuda is looking safe as a port now. I agree that the return path for Escape is a provlem now. Also waves ahead may ruin GSC as a tender port. Escape needs to be cruising off SC Wednesday... That's not going to work. I expect more changes to the itinerary to come.

 

 

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Laszlo

Laszlo

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I've been watching tropical storms and cruise line behavior for years. They often do not tell the whole story. It is regrettable they did not wait longer as Bermuda is looking safe as a port now. I agree that the return path for Escape is a provlem now. Also waves ahead may ruin GSC as a tender port. Escape needs to be cruising off SC Wednesday... That's not going to work. I expect more changes to the itinerary to come.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Forums

 

The itinerary could change at a drop of a hat, late tomorrow. I do know they need to arrange provisioning. Bermuda runs are always done in NYC. The Florida -Bahama runs are usually done in Port Canaveral since its less expensive. It will be interesting

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njhorseman

njhorseman

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I thought there were concerns around Bermuda from swells been on the north edge of the storm. I thought all the cruise lines have cancelled this week?

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Forums

 

Correct on both counts.

 

Per The National Hurricane Center's "Key Messages for Tropical Storm Florence" : "Large swells are affecting Bermuda..."

 

Per Cruise Critic News seven cruise ships due in Bermuda next week have been rerouted . This includes ships from NCL (2), Royal Caribbean, Carnival (2) and Oceania (2).

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Enavigo

Enavigo

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I've been watching tropical storms and cruise line behavior for years. They often do not tell the whole story. It is regrettable they did not wait longer as Bermuda is looking safe as a port now. I agree that the return path for Escape is a provlem now. Also waves ahead may ruin GSC as a tender port. Escape needs to be cruising off SC Wednesday... That's not going to work. I expect more changes to the itinerary to come.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Forums

 

By Wednesday the Escape will be 550 nm south of SC. Bermuda is not (and will not) be a safer port for at least the next 7 days as it will remain off the the northeast of Florence. Right now the storm is still 450nm southeast of Bermuda and they are experiencing significant swells with sea models expecting 30+ft seas wed-fri. Bermuda is simply not an option at all for the next week.

 

I agree it is possible we can't tender at GSC, but I still think they made the right choice.

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Charles4515

Charles4515

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Correct on both counts.

 

 

 

Per The National Hurricane Center's "Key Messages for Tropical Storm Florence" : "Large swells are affecting Bermuda..."

 

 

 

Per Cruise Critic News seven cruise ships due in Bermuda next week have been rerouted . This includes ships from NCL (2), Royal Caribbean, Carnival (2) and Oceania (2).

 

 

Florence could turn out to have a slight affect on Bermuda itself. That does not mean diverting was wrong. With the east to west track towards the US mainland the seas are going to get very rough as Florence strengthens. So sailing there into the storm bands would not be a picnic. The ships returning from the Bahamas are going to be following the storm. That will be better than sailing into it.

 

 

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