Carnival Stock Down

[Harry Peterson]

14 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

Looks as though you might have missed the boat on Carnival shares, they have increased by 4.5% in the last 2 days, not looking like they will breach £40, never mind £30.

Funny you should say that, because I finally gave in and followed the various buy recommendations from analysts and bought on 30 October at £41.50.

 

Very much against my own better judgment though, because I still feel there's a major correction - and buying opportunity - to come over the next few months.

 

However, I rarely get the timing right, buying or selling, so I took a gamble on the basis that it's money I can afford to lose if it all goes wrong.  Only time will tell, but I do agree that there's been a general upward trend for a long time, and I'll just have to live with the sick feeling I'll get if they dip at some point, as I'm sure they will, below £30.  They'll pick up again, for sure, but there's nothing quite like buying at the right point.  Sadly, though, I never seem to be able to do it!

[terrierjohn]

1 minute ago, docco said:

Funny you should say that, because I finally gave in and followed the various buy recommendations from analysts and bought on 30 October at £41.50.

 

Very much against my own better judgment though, because I still feel there's a major correction - and buying opportunity - to come over the next few months.

 

However, I rarely get the timing right, buying or selling, so I took a gamble on the basis that it's money I can afford to lose if it all goes wrong.  Only time will tell, but I do agree that there's been a general upward trend for a long time, and I'll just have to live with the sick feeling I'll get if they dip at some point, as I'm sure they will, below £30.  They'll pick up again, for sure, but there's nothing quite like buying at the right point.  Sadly, though, I never seem to be able to do it!

Well you seem to have bought at this years low point, so congrats.

I also bought at a very low point, placed my order with my broker on Friday 13th Jan 2012 and it was filled sometime on Monday 16th Jan, this was the weekend Costa Concordia sank, and I promise I had nothing to do with it.

However after expecting to pay about £23.00 per share I was very happy to only pay £18.50

 

[Harry Peterson]

8 hours ago, terrierjohn said:

Well you seem to have bought at this years low point, so congrats.

I also bought at a very low point, placed my order with my broker on Friday 13th Jan 2012 and it was filled sometime on Monday 16th Jan, this was the weekend Costa Concordia sank, and I promise I had nothing to do with it.

However after expecting to pay about £23.00 per share I was very happy to only pay £18.50

 

That was a good price! I well remember the impact of that incident - it enabled us to pick up a stunning bargain on a suite because prices dropped like a stone for a while. I think there must have been a lot of cancellations.

 

My £41.50 still seems high to me, along with markets generally at the moment, but at least I can stop wasting time now checking the price every day! And it’s inside an ISA so at least there are no tax implications. Apart from IHT of course.

[davecttr]

There would be no tax implications unless you earn more than £2000? in dividends so buying your 100 shares for the shareholder benefits which is what almost all people do will only give you about £150 per year.

[Harry Peterson]

50 minutes ago, davecttr said:

There would be no tax implications unless you earn more than £2000? in dividends so buying your 100 shares for the shareholder benefits which is what almost all people do will only give you about £150 per year.

Fair point, but the ISA contains other shares which would, outside the ISA wrapper, give rise to a tax liability.

[daiB]

Well I am very happy with my return of £500 to £600 p.a. Which is around 20% per year. I think I may have covered my initial outlay a couple of times by now.

 

Happy days.

[yorkshirephil]

50 minutes ago, daiB said:

Well I am very happy with my return of £500 to £600 p.a. Which is around 20% per year. I think I may have covered my initial outlay a couple of times by now.

 

Happy days.

Same here, we bought for the OBC as the dividend has never been brilliant, we have had much more than the purchase price in OBC alone. The divi is a bonus.

[BrianI]

2 hours ago, daiB said:

Well I am very happy with my return of £500 to £600 p.a. Which is around 20% per year. I think I may have covered my initial outlay a couple of times by now.

 

Happy days.

Well that's only about 4 cruises per annum. Are you cutting back?

Don't  forget the dividend either at around £150 pa.

You also get a better deal on the dollar based ships (Cunard, Princess et al) where you get $250 which is £192 at current exchange rates.

Brian

[daiB]

41 minutes ago, BrianI said:

Well that's only about 4 cruises per annum. Are you cutting back?

Don't  forget the dividend either at around £150 pa.

You also get a better deal on the dollar based ships (Cunard, Princess et al) where you get $250 which is £192 at current exchange rates.

Brian

Unfortunately we cannot do 4 long each year. And some are short back to back, 7 + 7. So the £600 includes the divi, and some are longer for which you only get the £150.

 

I appreciate your concern.

 

😎😎

[Traveling Dot]

I am looking into buying Carnival Stock and printed out a Carnival Shareholder benefit page.  It says on it that the benefit is applicable on sailings through July 31, 2019. Is this normal and do they make this statement each year?  Or are they doing away with the OBC?  I will most likely still buy the stock but would like to know what to expect.

 

Thanks to anyone who can answer this.

[majortom10]

Just now, Traveling Dot said:

I am looking into buying Carnival Stock and printed out a Carnival Shareholder benefit page.  It says on it that the benefit is applicable on sailings through July 31, 2019. Is this normal and do they make this statement each year?  Or are they doing away with the OBC?  I will most likely still buy the stock but would like to know what to expect.

 

Thanks to anyone who can answer this.

Its a statement they make each year at the AGM.

[Traveling Dot]

Thank you for replying so quickly,  That has made my day.  I have two big cruises planned for next year.

[smj777]

Carnival shares are doing well now - I thought that those people interested might like to see this;

 

Analysts at Credit Suisse bumped up their target price on cruise operator Carnival on Tuesday after "an encouraging update" with company management and a 'call' with its chief financial officer saw it "retain a positive view".
Credit Suisse said its conversation with CFO James Heaney, who joined Carnival from SeaWorld back in 2015, focused on five key topics.

According to the Swiss broker, Heaney said Carnival now sees "solid yield growth" throughout 2019, with trends versus peers better judged alongside return on invested capital.

Carnival's yield management system, an extending booking curve and continued adoption of its offerings by millennials also supported the investment case.

Credit Suisse also said that when discussing flexibility in a downturn, Heaney had noted scope for cost and capex adjustments in the near-term.

And while he also played down potential savings as a result of the new fuel regulations that were set to come into effect in 2020, the broker itself said it saw Carnival as being "well placed to benefit".

"We would expect caution to prevail and yield growth of around 1% seems likely (CSe 1.5%). The key downside risk stems for a combination of 6% industry capacity growth and a weaker consumer backdrop combining, although the 2019E PE of 12.8x seems to capture an element of that risk," the analysts said.

"Whilst 2019E guidance on 20 December will likely be cautious, we see a 2018-21E EPS CAGR of 12% vs a Nov-19E PE of 12.8x as a compelling combination on a 12-month view."

CS upped its target price on Carnival's shares to 5,910p from 5,770p, while keeping their recommendation at 'outperform'.

[CCFC]

Up 4% today!

[CCFC]

Down 10% in a day today, now £3877. Not sure why its such a hefty loss, anyone know??

 

Might be a good time to buy

[Harry Peterson]

7 minutes ago, CCFC said:

Down 10% in a day today, now £3877. Not sure why its such a hefty loss, anyone know??

 

Might be a good time to buy

Results published this morning.  Might be a good time to buy.  Or sell.

 

CARNIVAL INCOME RISES BUT Q1 OUTLOOK LESS CHEERY

(Sharecast News) - Cruise ship operator Carnival posted a rise in fourth-quarter income on Thursday as it hailed record full-year earnings.
GAAP net income for 2018 came in at $3.2bn from $2.6bn the year before, with diluted earnings per share of $4.44 versus $3.59 in 2017. Full-year adjusted net income, meanwhile, increased to $3bn from $2.8bn, with adjusted EPS of $4.26 compared to $3.82.

Revenues for the full year came in at $18.9bn, up from $17.5bn the year before.

The outlook for the first quarter of next year was less rosy, however, as Carnival warned that changes in fuel prices and currency exchange rates were expected to dent earnings by $0.03 per share. As a result, it now expects adjusted earnings per share in Q1 of between $0.40 and $0.44, down from 2018 adjusted EPS of $0.52.

President and chief executive officer Arnold Donald said: "We delivered strong fourth quarter earnings and record adjusted fourth quarter earnings to top off a record breaking year. In 2018, we grew net cruise revenue (constant currency) over five percent, achieving the highest revenue yields (constant currency) in our company's history, and producing double-digit adjusted earnings growth despite a significant drag from fuel and currency.

"More importantly, we achieved double-digit return on invested capital in line with the target we established five years ago. I thank our 120,000 team members around the globe who encountered multiple headwinds and still delivered for our shareholders a more than doubling of return on invested capital in just five years, as well as our valued travel agent partners whose strong support enabled these record results."

[CCFC]

Thank you for the information.

 

I am still happy with my £40 (the last one was) quarterly dividend and £300 a year in onboard credit.

 

I would only sell them if I stopped cruising and I cant see that happening for many years, god willing.

[majortom10]

I am very happy 3 cruises a year so $750 OBC and quarterly dividends and a purchase price of just over £20. Shudder to think what money I have made with OBC and dividends plus increase in share price. A fantastic investment.

[picsa]

On 12/21/2018 at 11:49 AM, majortom10 said:

I am very happy 3 cruises a year so $750 OBC and quarterly dividends and a purchase price of just over £20. Shudder to think what money I have made with OBC and dividends plus increase in share price. A fantastic investment.

 

'Making' money from OBC - hilarious, tell us another one.

 

Carnival Corp persuade you to spend thousands on cruises and cruises only with their brands and not other companies, and in return they give you a small amount of OBC which you can only spend on overpriced stuff and stuff you wouldn't have bought if you didn't have the 'free' OBC.

 

As for your profit from the increase in the share price, paper gains are irrelevant. Profit only comes when you have sold the shares and the money is in your account and who know what the price will be then. 

 

 

 

 

[kruzseeka]

48 minutes ago, picsa said:

 

'Making' money from OBC - hilarious, tell us another one.

 

Carnival Corp persuade you to spend thousands on cruises and cruises only with their brands and not other companies, and in return they give you a small amount of OBC which you can only spend on overpriced stuff and stuff you wouldn't have bought if you didn't have the 'free' OBC.

 

As for your profit from the increase in the share price, paper gains are irrelevant. Profit only comes when you have sold the shares and the money is in your account and who know what the price will be then. 

 

Well perhaps I don't see it as 'making money' but I certainly believe I am 'saving some money' with obc.  We buy drinks on board and sometimes excursions irrespective of whether we have obc or not.  If we do have obc which goes towards our on board spend then clearly I haven't got such a big bill at the end of the cruise. 

I agree there is a tie in to Carnival brands and we, like everyone else who cruises, pay a lot of money for the privilege - but then if you want to cruise you pay the price either with Carnival or someone else, weighing up the cost and comparing different products choosing what suits you best.  That would be the case with or without Share ownership.  If you do have shares though you do get the obc which, as described above, I see as (spending) money in my pocket. Whether we travel with Carnival or not, there are also the quarterly dividends which is a bonus.  The Share value is quite separate - that's an investment which as they say may go up or down in value - but that doesn't detract from the real financial perks associated with holding the shares.

Edited December 29, 2018 by kruzseeka

[majortom10]

1 hour ago, picsa said:

 

'Making' money from OBC - hilarious, tell us another one.

 

Carnival Corp persuade you to spend thousands on cruises and cruises only with their brands and not other companies, and in return they give you a small amount of OBC which you can only spend on overpriced stuff and stuff you wouldn't have bought if you didn't have the 'free' OBC.

 

As for your profit from the increase in the share price, paper gains are irrelevant. Profit only comes when you have sold the shares and the money is in your account and who know what the price will be then. 

 

 

 

 

It is money I would have spent on all my cruises anyway so has saved me $250 on every cruise which would have been my own money but instead was Carnival's. I am sure if you were offered $250 on every cruise you do you would snap there hands off or would you refuse it.......I dont think so.

[terrierjohn]

1 hour ago, picsa said:

 

'Making' money from OBC - hilarious, tell us another one.

 

Carnival Corp persuade you to spend thousands on cruises and cruises only with their brands and not other companies, and in return they give you a small amount of OBC which you can only spend on overpriced stuff and stuff you wouldn't have bought if you didn't have the 'free' OBC.

 

As for your profit from the increase in the share price, paper gains are irrelevant. Profit only comes when you have sold the shares and the money is in your account and who know what the price will be then. 

 

 

 

 

Each to his own but in my view the OBC from the shares pays for £150 of drinks, which I would be buying anyway, so a direct saving on my credit card account.

[majortom10]

1 minute ago, terrierjohn said:

Each to his own but in my view the OBC from the shares pays for £150 of drinks, which I would be buying anyway, so a direct saving on my credit card account.

Precisely 👌

[Ranchi]

Agree with Picsa entirely! I sold my Carnival shares at £27 and now am revelling in the profit I made. ( fortunately we kept my wife’s shares - we no longer travel with the family so only need one cabin). I humph periodically as I see the dividend code appear on the bank statement and positively gloat when the share price drops. 

Let’s just  hope everyone gets out of the bed on the right side of the bed for the rest of the festive season. 

[Harry Peterson]

6 hours ago, picsa said:

.......As for your profit from the increase in the share price, paper gains are irrelevant. Profit only comes when you have sold the shares and the money is in your account and who know what the price will be then..........

 

 

 

 

True, of course, and I speak as one who bought recently at £41.50 and mistimed the market as usual (down to a fraction over £36 on Thursday.   I should have stuck to my own advice and waited for them to drop to around £30, which is still, in the current gloomy state of the markets generally, entirely possible.

 

On the bright side, though, it would make a good buying opportunity for anyone wanting to start off.