Carnival Stock

[npcl]

1 hour ago, JT1962 said:

 

 

Based on the filing with the SEC, the shares were held as of March 25 and did not include any shares in the new issue on April 6. That does not mean that they may not have purchased additional shares in the new offering, but the large stake that was reported was purchased prior to the new issue at an average of over $17 per share from one report I saw.


https://www.carnivalcorp.com/node/61031/html


“(1) Based on 527,817,680 shares of common stock of Carnival Corporation (the “Issuer”) outstanding as of March 25, 2020, as reported in the Issuer’s Form 10-Q filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on April 3, 2020. The number of outstanding shares used to calculate this percentage does not include shares of common stock to be issued in the Issuer’s underwritten public offering scheduled to close on or about April 6, 2020.”

 

 

Forgot to mention this in my response by the March 25 date is the date of the 10Q.

[JT1962]

That is simply the last published stock total information from the 10Q.  They have to use an official figure in the filing to determine the percentage.  Since there has not been an updated filing with the new total since the offering they have to use the most recent total.
 
As such it is the last filing that included the total shares issued by the company.  It does not mean that the shares were all acquired then.  Fairly normal in 13G filings to reference the last 10K or 10Q released by the company as the last official and filed statement of the number of shares outstanding.  
 
 

That may be true, but the Wall Street Journal also reported that the 8.2% stake was not part of the new issue. The Saudis may have bought more on the new issue, but I guess we won’t know until the next required filings.

“The Saudi fund’s 8.2% stake reflects the company’s number of shares outstanding on March 25 and doesn’t include the latest capital raise, the fund said in a securities filing.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/carnival-soars-after-saudi-sovereign-wealth-fund-discloses-stake-11586200934

[npcl]

37 minutes ago, JT1962 said:

 

That may be true, but the Wall Street Journal also reported that the 8.2% stake was not part of the new issue. The Saudis may have bought more on the new issue, but I guess we won’t know until the next required filings.

“The Saudi fund’s 8.2% stake reflects the company’s number of shares outstanding on March 25 and doesn’t include the latest capital raise, the fund said in a securities filing.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/carnival-soars-after-saudi-sovereign-wealth-fund-discloses-stake-11586200934

 

 

Again the wall street journal is referencing the March 25th 10Q filing because that is what they have to use for the denominator in the percentage calculation.   They are stating the what the percentage is compared to. Again standard disclosure. the comment "reflects the company’s number of shares outstanding on March 25 and doesn’t include the latest capital raise, the fund said in a securities filing" reflects the calculation of 8.2%  has nothing to do with the acquisition timing of the shares.

 

If they had the additional 62.5 million shared in the calculation  527,817,680 as of march 25 Plus the 62,500,000 =

590,317,680  So if they did not use the March 25 total which is the last official number released by the company the percentage would be 7.37% however they can not do that because the new total shares have not been released by the company in a filing.

 

 

[c-boy]

23 hours ago, oskidunker said:

Anyone care to venture a guess as to what the stock will open at Monday? There always seems to be huge movement while the market is closed. Put in a buy at 8. Anyone think that is too high?

12.42, drop to  11.89 and rally to 12.56

[Roberto256]

On 4/10/2020 at 1:50 PM, oskidunker said:

Anyone care to venture a guess as to what the stock will open at Monday? There always seems to be huge movement while the market is closed. Put in a buy at 8. Anyone think that is too high?

My problem with 'good until filled orders' like that --- some piece of bad news happens...

 

You order gets filled at 8, while the stock is on it's way to 4.

 

[oskidunker]

Possible. You could always put a stop loss. 

[dockman]

2 hours ago, Roberto256 said:

My problem with 'good until filled orders' like that --- some piece of bad news happens...

 

You order gets filled at 8, while the stock is on it's way to 4.

 

highly doubtful but i guess we will find out soon enough

[npcl]

Will not guess the open.  Too many gaps these days.  But I will guess its next bottom.

 

If you look at the last two cycles  a drop followed by a 50% fibonacci retracement , a drop followed by a 50% retracement. With each drop going a little lower.

 

The 50% retracement point from the last bottom is around $13.  We failed to break and close above that point on Thursday.  The next down leg if the cycle holds would be to $6.5. So I would put that out as my estimate.

 

The overall market has also come back to the 50% retracement point off the bottom as well so I do expect a down week for next week for the overall market.

Edited April 11, 2020 by npcl

[cruzsnooze]

I have no expertise on the stock market but I do see that the Dow reacts to rumors VS fact. I gambled and bought 100 shares at $8 last week. It's not enough money to worry about but incentive & fun to watch since I'm bored anyway complying with the stay at home.

[oskidunker]

23 minutes ago, npcl said:

Will not guess the open.  Too many gaps these days.  But I will guess its next bottom.

 

If you look at the last two cycles  a drop followed by a 50% fibonacci retracement , a drop followed by a 50% retracement. With each drop going a little lower.

 

The 50% retracement point from the last bottom is around $13.  We failed to break and close above that point on Thursday.  The next down leg if the cycle holds would be to $6.5. So I would put that out as my estimate.

 

The overall market has also come back to the 50% retracement point off the bottom as well so I do expect a down week for next week for the overall market.

Lowered my buy to $7. Lets see if you are right! :.)

[dockman]

insider buying at CCL

 

Carnival (NYSE:CCL) director Randall J Weisenburger bought an astonishing $10 mln worth of shares last week. Carnival is a cruise line company which is hit significantly by the Covid-19 crisis. However, as a consequence of its recent capital raise and debt offering, it has sufficient cash for many months. This purchase puts some confidence in a turnaround for the stock after declining 76% YTD.

[npcl]

37 minutes ago, dockman said:

insider buying at CCL

 

Carnival (NYSE:CCL) director Randall J Weisenburger bought an astonishing $10 mln worth of shares last week. Carnival is a cruise line company which is hit significantly by the Covid-19 crisis. However, as a consequence of its recent capital raise and debt offering, it has sufficient cash for many months. This purchase puts some confidence in a turnaround for the stock after declining 76% YTD.

That was part of the $500 million new stock offering.

[Roberto256]

6 hours ago, dockman said:

Carnival (NYSE:CCL) director Randall J Weisenburger bought an astonishing $10 mln worth of shares last week.

"The estimated Net Worth of Randall J Weisenburger is at least  $16.2 Million dollars as of 6 April 2020. Mr. Weisenburger owns over 1,250,000 units of Carnival Plc stock "

 

https://wallmine.com/people/29630/randall-j-weisenburger

 

I'm thinking he doesn't really care about the shareholder onboard credit...

 

[hel0013]

On 4/10/2020 at 11:50 AM, oskidunker said:

Anyone care to venture a guess as to what the stock will open at Monday? There always seems to be huge movement while the market is closed. Put in a buy at 8. Anyone think that is too high?

 

I'm not Warren Buffett by any means so..... my guess is the stockmarket is in a dead cat bounce.

 

It's done its small rebound in the last week so be prepared it's going to fall further. <<<<< only my guess>>>>

[cruzsnooze]

7 hours ago, hel0013 said:

 

I'm not Warren Buffett by any means so..... my guess is the stockmarket is in a dead cat bounce.

 

It's done its small rebound in the last week so be prepared it's going to fall further. <<<<< only my guess>>>>

I hope not. I want to see Carnival Corp survive another day so we can get back to cruising next year.

[PrincessLuver]

17 hours ago, hel0013 said:

 

I'm not Warren Buffett by any means so..... my guess is the stockmarket is in a dead cat bounce.

 

It's done its small rebound in the last week so be prepared it's going to fall further. <<<<< only my guess>>>>

 

I think you are correct.....we are going to be in for a really long haul on getting the US economy going again and we will be lucky if by the end of the year things are moving in a positive direction.

[oskidunker]

The stock did not tank today which surprised me..

 

was waiting t9 buy some more. Maybe it has stabilized for the time being. I thought the CDC ban would affect it.. I guess not, so far..

 

[dockman]

it's not all doom and gloom

 

https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/492047-more-people-are-booking-cruises-for-2021-compared-to-2019-despite

[frugaltravel]

13 minutes ago, oskidunker said:

The stock did not tank today which surprised me..

 

was waiting t9 buy some more. Maybe it has stabilized for the time being. I thought the CDC ban would affect it.. I guess not, so far..

 

Most of our crystal balls, even the "professional" stock pickers', don't seem to work.  So I am not surprised.  I also don't see CCL dipping down to $6.50 like some have mentioned.  But my crystal ball is not working either!

 

[npcl]

1 hour ago, frugaltravel said:

Most of our crystal balls, even the "professional" stock pickers', don't seem to work.  So I am not surprised.  I also don't see CCL dipping down to $6.50 like some have mentioned.  But my crystal ball is not working either!

 

I did not say it would drop to that level today.

 

If you read what I have posted I said that it has followed a pattern of dropping to a bottom followed by a 50% retracement, followed by a drop setting a new bottom, followed by a 50% retracements. If the pattern holds the next bottom will be around $6.50.  Those drops and retracements did not occur in a single day, they are trends that take place over several days,  Another way to put it, is if the pattern holds it will hit a new bottom at $6.50 before it hits a new peak above $13.00.

[npcl]

1 hour ago, dockman said:

it's not all doom and gloom

 

https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/492047-more-people-are-booking-cruises-for-2021-compared-to-2019-despite

This has been discussed several times.  The comparison is for cruises book by this time of year, for the next year.  So you have to consider that the base is the number of cruises booked at least 9 months in advance.  Then if you take the number of cruises that have been canceled this year and converted to FCCs, and figure that due to the limited time before they need to be used, many of those have been used to book cruises in 2021.

 

So on that base of cruises booked atleast 9 month in advance couple with the number of FCCs I would be surprised if the numbers for 2021 is not ahead of normal.

 

The real question is how many cash bookings are taking place and that information is not available.

[frugaltravel]

12 minutes ago, npcl said:

I did not say it would drop to that level today.

 

If you read what I have posted I said that it has followed a pattern of dropping to a bottom followed by a 50% retracement, followed by a drop setting a new bottom, followed by a 50% retracements. If the pattern holds the next bottom will be around $6.50.  Those drops and retracements did not occur in a single day, they are trends that take place over several days,  Another way to put it, is if the pattern holds it will hit a new bottom at $6.50 before it hits a new peak above $13.00.

If any of us had a crystal ball we wouldn't be posting on Cruise Critic 😀😀

[c-boy]

2 hours ago, dockman said:

it's not all doom and gloom

 

https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/492047-more-people-are-booking-cruises-for-2021-compared-to-2019-despite

hey ! we made the news, at least the mention in the article. 

[BIG TIME CRUISER]

35 minutes ago, c-boy said:

hey ! we made the news, at least the mention in the article. 

I think I'll wait until they retrofit all the Princess ships with better filters & they develop a vaccine. 

[c-boy]

well alrighty then BIG, can I have your seat in the theater ?