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Ocean Boy

Ocean Boy

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, flyguyjake said:

Certainly you are joking. No one is complaining about people sitting in waiting rooms. 

I was agreeing to to ovrrall comment about the overuse of ER services and yes it does look at times when I walk through like the system is overwhelmed when, if fact, the problem is many of those people don't need to be there.

 

As for the rest of your post, I am not going to get into it on Cruise Critic but Mallefiscent makes very valid points. 

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flyguyjake

flyguyjake

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3 minutes ago, Mallefiscent said:

I am curious as to why you think testing is the key?

It is the opinion of many health experts and governments globally. China still using testing today to control any additional hotspots. Testing has been the key to stopping or slowing spread of many viruses including Ebola.

 

Re: NY ventilators, apparently you aren't listening to Gov Cuomo's cries for ventilators.

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Mallefiscent

Mallefiscent

Posted
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, flyguyjake said:

It is the opinion of many health experts and governments globally. China still using testing today to control any additional hotspots. Testing has been the key to stopping or slowing spread of many viruses including Ebola.

 

Re: NY ventilators, apparently you aren't listening to Gov Cuomo's cries for ventilators.

 

Correct. I don't listen to politicians about medical matters.  When Gov Cuomo rolls up his sleeves and gets into the trenches with me, then I will listen to him.

 

Testing by itself does nothing.  I can go out, be tested, come out positive, go to the grocery store and spread it to other people. 

 

I can not get tested, stay home when I am not at work, stay away from the rest of my family (which I am doing just because of my profession) and not spread it to anyone else.  I don't need a test in order to practice common sense guidelines. 

 

I do want to throw in here what testing is good for - differential diagnosis.  If you have someone on a ventilator, doctors have what they call differential diagnoses.   They are several different possibilities that could be wrong with the patient.   They can test for covid 19 and if it is negative, they know to go look for another cause such as flu, tuberculosis, valley fever. 

Edited by Mallefiscent
added info about differential diagnosis
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firefly333

firefly333

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Posted
28 minutes ago, flyguyjake said:

America today is NOT the America of the 50s. This is a whole new level of transmission. Listen to Gov Cuomo & Fauci. They are the ones presenting facts in a reasonable and rational way. They give cold hard facts. Either side can spin it all they want. Facts ARE Facts. Being prepared, overly cautious even, will save thousands of lives in the US. Every life should matter, regardless of health condition or age.

 

What makes you think I'm not listening to them both. I'm a news junkie. I would bet any money you want I've heard them more than you. I sleep with the news on as I dont sleep well.

 

I cant imagine why you think I'm not listening. .... because I'm a optimist?  I think there is a tiny possibility they will find a vaccine sooner.? I saw someone had made a respirator for $150 yesterday. None of us know absolutely what is possible in the next year.

 

I hope I can cruise next January but if not then so be it, I'll rebook later.

 

 

 

 

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flyguyjake

flyguyjake

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Posted (edited)

https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/aviation/489161-us-airlines-drafting-plans-for-potential-shutdown-report

 

Officials also said other options were under consideration to prevent a shutdown, but the spreading pandemic has made the shutdown seem more unavoidable to airline officials, pilot-union leaders and federal transportation officials, according to the Journal. 

 

Federal Aviation Administration officials are concerned that the virus will spread among agency controllers and technicians, as almost a dozen of traffic-control facilities have had to cease operations temporarily after positive cases.

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firefly333

firefly333

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I've been saying it makes no sense to me why they are still flying. Dallas had no cases, until a guy flew home from silicon valley, then a case from kentucky, then one of a pass thru traveller they refused to say where he was from.

 

China told italy their problem was not shutting down mass transit. Dallas is shut down. If you are an essential worker you cant drive to your job across county lines.. but guess what? Dart was considered essential and not shut down ... just what china warned italy of. 

 

Well at least they finally shut down the churches.

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flyguyjake

flyguyjake

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https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/489179-who-cautions-us-could-become-next-epicenter-of

 

A World Health Organization (WHO) official says the United States has the potential to become the new epicenter of the coronavirus crisis as a large acceleration of infections is occurring in the nation. 

“We are now seeing a very large acceleration in cases in the U.S. So, it does have that potential,” WHO spokeswoman Margaret Harris told reporters Tuesday when asked whether the U.S. could become the new epicenter, according to Reuters.

Over the past 24 hours, 85 percent of new cases were from Europe and the U.S., Harris said. Of those, 40 percent were in the U.S.

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Mallefiscent

Mallefiscent

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, flyguyjake said:

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/489179-who-cautions-us-could-become-next-epicenter-of

 

A World Health Organization (WHO) official says the United States has the potential to become the new epicenter of the coronavirus crisis as a large acceleration of infections is occurring in the nation. 

“We are now seeing a very large acceleration in cases in the U.S. So, it does have that potential,” WHO spokeswoman Margaret Harris told reporters Tuesday when asked whether the U.S. could become the new epicenter, according to Reuters.

Over the past 24 hours, 85 percent of new cases were from Europe and the U.S., Harris said. Of those, 40 percent were in the U.S.

This may just reflect more testing. Not necessarily a large acceleration in cases. 

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UnorigionalName

UnorigionalName

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Mallefiscent said:

Actually, Facts can be skewed any way you want them to be.  You just have to ask the question in the right way.   A statistics class can teach you all about it. 

Yes, every life matters, but people will die.  I have spent the last 12 years fighting that battle in the ER, and sometimes no matter what we do, people die.  Right now, fewer people are dying from covid 19 than they are from heart disease, overdoses, smoking, and numerous other things that we have control over.  No one has shut down Mcdonald's or the tobacco industry.  The reason they aren't shut down is because people are accustomed to them.   You have a higher chance of dying when you get into your car to drive to the store than you do of dying from the covid virus, but most people aren't afraid of driving.  They have become immune to the danger of it.

There's been a lot of hype about something that is new to people causing mass panic.  People shouldn't make decisions based on fear. 

 

I think the COVID daily deaths now outpace motor vehicle accidents.  We'll see where we peak where the annualized rate ends up.

 

7 hours ago, Mallefiscent said:

I am curious as to why you think testing is the key?  What do you think testing is going to do?

 

New York has approximately 1500 people on ventilators - not just for covid 19.  The state of New York itself has over 3,000 ventilators in its hospitals at the moment with more ventilators that are stored for emergencies which can be pulled out to use.   Every day people are taken off of the ventilators and others are put on.   It isn't a situation where once you are put on the ventilator, you are left on there for ever when you're in the hospital.  If they don't feel you will ever recover, a sensitive discussion is held with the family about removing their loved one from life support.   

 

 

 

Most COVID people on vent require ~2 weeks on vent.  That's a lot of utilization.  5% ventilation rate... you see where their math is coming from.  Yay, 3,000 vents, now find 27,000 more.

 

6 hours ago, Mallefiscent said:

 

Correct. I don't listen to politicians about medical matters.  When Gov Cuomo rolls up his sleeves and gets into the trenches with me, then I will listen to him.

 

Testing by itself does nothing.  I can go out, be tested, come out positive, go to the grocery store and spread it to other people. 

 

I can not get tested, stay home when I am not at work, stay away from the rest of my family (which I am doing just because of my profession) and not spread it to anyone else.  I don't need a test in order to practice common sense guidelines. 

 

I do want to throw in here what testing is good for - differential diagnosis.  If you have someone on a ventilator, doctors have what they call differential diagnoses.   They are several different possibilities that could be wrong with the patient.   They can test for covid 19 and if it is negative, they know to go look for another cause such as flu, tuberculosis, valley fever. 

 

Reasons to test:

- make sure positive people really quarantine.

- negative people can go about more activity

- COVID patients tend to crump fast.  Prevent cases like this where people die at home.  Many need to be monitored in hospital: https://www.businessinsider.com/39-year-old-woman-died-waiting-for-covid-19-test-2020-3

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Mallefiscent

Mallefiscent

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13 minutes ago, UnorigionalName said:

 

I think the COVID daily deaths now outpace motor vehicle accidents.  We'll see where we peak where the annualized rate ends up.

 

Most COVID people on vent require ~2 weeks on vent.  That's a lot of utilization.  5% ventilation rate... you see where their math is coming from.  Yay, 3,000 vents, now find 27,000 more.

 

Reasons to test:

- make sure positive people really quarantine.

- negative people can go about more activity

- COVID patients tend to crump fast.  Prevent cases like this where people die at home.  Many need to be monitored in hospital: https://www.businessinsider.com/39-year-old-woman-died-waiting-for-covid-19-test-2020-3

 

But everyone isn't going to be on the vent for the same two weeks.   Let's say hospital A in New York runs out of ventilators - hospitals run out of things all the time during flu season, rooms, vents, staff, etc.  They have one ventilator left.  A Covid patient comes in that needs a vent.  That patient is intubated, stabilized and then transfer is set up to go to another hospital.  That patient is airlifted or sent by ground transportation to  hospital B.  It may be another hospital close by. It may be a hospital in another state.  I have taken many patients from out of state ERs to my ER in order to get them admitted to a hospital that has the capacity for them.   That ventilator is now open again.  In that time, someone was taken off of the ventilator in ICU in Hospital A.  A second Covid patient comes into Hospital A needing to be intubated.  This time, the patient is intubated, stabilized and then transferred to Hospital A's ICU.  Leaving 1 ventilator still available.  The cycle repeats itself.  In 2 weeks, patients 1 and 2 are off of the ventilator.  During those 2 weeks, other people have been put on and taken off of ventilators.  Also, ventilators are not the only tool up the medical professions' sleeve. 

As far as testing,

You can't make sure positive people really quarantine.  They aren't going to tie people to their bed with a guard over them 24/7. If you are a single mom who is quarantined and out of food with kids who are crying because they are hungry, what are you going to do?  

There will be plenty of false negative tests.  The current covid tests are testing for antibodies.  If your body hasn't developed antibodies to it yet, there will be a false negative.  If you are sick, stay away from people. There are things that are much worse than the covid virus that you could be passing around. 

The female in the article you linked had been ill for 10 days.  It is very sad that she died.  She had many people who loved her.  Unfortunately, she was a typical female patient who puts their health aside.   The female in the article you linked had been ill for 10 days and had not gone to see her doctor.  They don't even know if she was positive for the corona virus or not. 

Lots of patients tend to crump fast. You don't want to keep people in a hospital situation though.   Hospital acquired diseases are a real threat.  For example, hospital acquired pneumonia has a mortality rate of up to 33%.   Do you want to take your chances with a virus that has a possible 4% mortality rate or do you want to take your chances with a hospital acquired infection with up to a 33% mortality rate?   On any given day, about one in 31 hospital patients has at least one healthcare-associated infection according to the CDC.  So say that you are in the hospital for the COVID 19 virus, and then you get a hospital acquired infection.   Your chances of survival just went down a lot.  What if you get put in the hospital because you had a low grade fever and a little cough. Nothing major, but "Covid patients tend to crump fast."  Your  covid test came back negative, and your flu test was positive.  Then your roommate's covid test comes back positive. Now you've been exposed to covid.   

People think things are so easy and self explanatory.  They aren't.   Famous spew rhetoric about the public while they lounge around in their million dollar mansions with plenty of food and then go get tested themselves.  News media crank out their version of the story with worst case scenarios  to get their ratings up and don't tell you about all of the other factors.  Politicians have stand offs about power instead of sending money that could make a difference in people's lives. 

 

All people see is gloom and doom.  Living in that is your choice.   There are plenty of things out there to give people hope if you make the choice to stop and look at them

 

 

 

 

 

 

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firefly333

firefly333

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Posted
3 hours ago, Mallefiscent said:

 

All of the people out there smoking disagree with you. 

Speaking of smoking. Google the facts before someone jumps on me please. Italy has a rate of 2 to 1 men dying over women ... in every age category.

 

China men died at a rate of 62%

 

It's been speculated the reason so many more men die than women is because more men smoke and vape.

 

Google the statics of men vs women death rates in italy especially before you get all political on me. I'm sure there will be lots more studies of why, the x chromosome and whatever, but the fact is more than twice as many men died in italy as women. 

 

Smoking and vaping, who knows at this point why. 

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Ocean Boy

Ocean Boy

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Posted
13 hours ago, firefly333 said:

Speaking of smoking. Google the facts before someone jumps on me please. Italy has a rate of 2 to 1 men dying over women ... in every age category.

 

China men died at a rate of 62%

 

It's been speculated the reason so many more men die than women is because more men smoke and vape.

 

Google the statics of men vs women death rates in italy especially before you get all political on me. I'm sure there will be lots more studies of why, the x chromosome and whatever, but the fact is more than twice as many men died in italy as women. 

 

Smoking and vaping, who knows at this point why. 

Maybe it has something to do with Italian women ruling their households with an iron fist? Just a thought from this Italian guy.😁

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Iamcruzin

Iamcruzin

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On 3/23/2020 at 9:41 PM, young_ens said:

 Read a bad reference, numbers are 20 million to 50 million world-wide deaths!   This flu had a mortality rate of 2 to 10 percent (records are sketchy apparently)

 

This covid is not too much different from the flu for mortality, somewhere around 1 percent.   It seems higher because it's so contagious and when droves inundate the health care system, it's is overwhelming and not everyone can be looked after. There are just not enough ICU beds for all the sick and certainly not enough breathing machines needed for the 5% who have the most severe symptoms.  

 

Good analyses here:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

 

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

 

I'm worried for our neighbors, the US.  Your government failed hard, way too slow to act.  We knew what happened in China and nothing was done to contain/slow the virus.  Still too many flights in the states spreading the virus because people need to travel I guess....  

Thank you for your concern. Just when you think you have heard it all our government opens it's mouth and puts it's a foot right in.  

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UnorigionalName

UnorigionalName

Posted
Posted (edited)
18 hours ago, Mallefiscent said:

 

But everyone isn't going to be on the vent for the same two weeks.   Let's say hospital A in New York runs out of ventilators - hospitals run out of things all the time during flu season, rooms, vents, staff, etc.  They have one ventilator left.  A Covid patient comes in that needs a vent.  That patient is intubated, stabilized and then transfer is set up to go to another hospital.  That patient is airlifted or sent by ground transportation to  hospital B.  It may be another hospital close by. It may be a hospital in another state.  I have taken many patients from out of state ERs to my ER in order to get them admitted to a hospital that has the capacity for them.   That ventilator is now open again.  In that time, someone was taken off of the ventilator in ICU in Hospital A.  A second Covid patient comes into Hospital A needing to be intubated.  This time, the patient is intubated, stabilized and then transferred to Hospital A's ICU.  Leaving 1 ventilator still available.  The cycle repeats itself.  In 2 weeks, patients 1 and 2 are off of the ventilator.  During those 2 weeks, other people have been put on and taken off of ventilators.  Also, ventilators are not the only tool up the medical professions' sleeve. 

As far as testing,

You can't make sure positive people really quarantine.  They aren't going to tie people to their bed with a guard over them 24/7. If you are a single mom who is quarantined and out of food with kids who are crying because they are hungry, what are you going to do?  

There will be plenty of false negative tests.  The current covid tests are testing for antibodies.  If your body hasn't developed antibodies to it yet, there will be a false negative.  If you are sick, stay away from people. There are things that are much worse than the covid virus that you could be passing around. 

The female in the article you linked had been ill for 10 days.  It is very sad that she died.  She had many people who loved her.  Unfortunately, she was a typical female patient who puts their health aside.   The female in the article you linked had been ill for 10 days and had not gone to see her doctor.  They don't even know if she was positive for the corona virus or not. 

Lots of patients tend to crump fast. You don't want to keep people in a hospital situation though.   Hospital acquired diseases are a real threat.  For example, hospital acquired pneumonia has a mortality rate of up to 33%.   Do you want to take your chances with a virus that has a possible 4% mortality rate or do you want to take your chances with a hospital acquired infection with up to a 33% mortality rate?   On any given day, about one in 31 hospital patients has at least one healthcare-associated infection according to the CDC.  So say that you are in the hospital for the COVID 19 virus, and then you get a hospital acquired infection.   Your chances of survival just went down a lot.  What if you get put in the hospital because you had a low grade fever and a little cough. Nothing major, but "Covid patients tend to crump fast."  Your  covid test came back negative, and your flu test was positive.  Then your roommate's covid test comes back positive. Now you've been exposed to covid.   

People think things are so easy and self explanatory.  They aren't.   Famous spew rhetoric about the public while they lounge around in their million dollar mansions with plenty of food and then go get tested themselves.  News media crank out their version of the story with worst case scenarios  to get their ratings up and don't tell you about all of the other factors.  Politicians have stand offs about power instead of sending money that could make a difference in people's lives. 

 

All people see is gloom and doom.  Living in that is your choice.   There are plenty of things out there to give people hope if you make the choice to stop and look at them

 

We want to prevent: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/coronavirus-georgia-mom-who-worked-hospital-found-dead-home-her-n1168386

 

The testing in US is all PCR based, not antigen based, not immunoglobulin based.  It is highly sensitive and specific.

 

The data out of China showed relatively few COVID patients developed bacterial superinfections, not like flu.

 

If we had tested earlier we could have been in containment phase.  I think it's foolish for lightly hit states to not try containment phase now. look at singapore and southern sk, and hk, and taiwan.  first positive case months ago and they are still able to live.

 

If we tested more broadly now, we could know if we need to go under severe lockdowns or if we can relax some areas. 

 

edit: I also believe by and large americans are responsible and many want to do the right thing.  with people with few symptoms being positive, I think a vast majority would self quarantine and try to prevent spread to others.  Any thing that decreases the R0 by any amount should be pursued, as that will ultimately decrease the amount of people infected, shorten the time till the peak, and save lives.

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rtazz17

rtazz17

Posted
Posted (edited)
20 hours ago, UnorigionalName said:

 

I think the COVID daily deaths now outpace motor vehicle accidents.  We'll see where we peak where the annualized rate ends up.

 

 

Most COVID people on vent require ~2 weeks on vent.  That's a lot of utilization.  5% ventilation rate... you see where their math is coming from.  Yay, 3,000 vents, now find 27,000 more.

 

 

Reasons to test:

- make sure positive people really quarantine.

- negative people can go about more activity

- COVID patients tend to crump fast.  Prevent cases like this where people die at home.  Many need to be monitored in hospital: https://www.businessinsider.com/39-year-old-woman-died-waiting-for-covid-19-test-2020-3

Daily deaths from motor vehicles in America alone are over 100 a day. Every day of the year,and every year. 35,000 a year. The covid daily fatality rate will never out pace motor vehicle death rate. If it does it wont be for very long. The “regular flu” in a bad year doesnt out pace motor vehicle accident death rate. 
 

what kills the most people? Poor diet. Americans eat like crap and pay the price. Oh and dont exercise(most).. those are things we are in control of but most could care less about. Pretty evident on a cruise isnt it?

Edited by rtazz17
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UnorigionalName

UnorigionalName

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, rtazz17 said:

Daily deaths from motor vehicles in America alone are over 100 a day. Every day of the year,and every year. 35,000 a year. The covid daily fatality rate will never out pace motor vehicle death rate. If it does it wont be for very long.

 

daily death rate of MVA about 90 a day.  Deaths on 3/24 from COVID = 128.  And it is still on exponential growth.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States#Statistics

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Mallefiscent

Mallefiscent

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Posted
9 hours ago, UnorigionalName said:

 

We want to prevent: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/coronavirus-georgia-mom-who-worked-hospital-found-dead-home-her-n1168386

 

The testing in US is all PCR based, not antigen based, not immunoglobulin based.  It is highly sensitive and specific.

 

The data out of China showed relatively few COVID patients developed bacterial superinfections, not like flu.

 

If we had tested earlier we could have been in containment phase.  I think it's foolish for lightly hit states to not try containment phase now. look at singapore and southern sk, and hk, and taiwan.  first positive case months ago and they are still able to live.

 

If we tested more broadly now, we could know if we need to go under severe lockdowns or if we can relax some areas. 

 

edit: I also believe by and large americans are responsible and many want to do the right thing.  with people with few symptoms being positive, I think a vast majority would self quarantine and try to prevent spread to others.  Any thing that decreases the R0 by any amount should be pursued, as that will ultimately decrease the amount of people infected, shorten the time till the peak, and save lives.

 

Not all tests are PCR. 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/testing.html

 

Labcorp does have PCR testing, and they even say that a negative test does not preclude having Covid 19

https://www.fda.gov/media/136151/download

 

I agree that most Americans want to do the right thing.   People don't always agree what the right thing is though. 

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