No cruising until a vaccine?

[bouhunter]

They are saying there will likely be waves of the virus over the next 12-18 months until a vaccine is available.  If that comes to be, one has to wonder how they could consider putting thousands of people together on ships under those circumstances.

[mek]

47 minutes ago, bouhunter said:

They are saying there will likely be waves of the virus over the next 12-18 months until a vaccine is available.  If that comes to be, one has to wonder how they could consider putting thousands of people together on ships under those circumstances.

If they come up with a fast and effective treatment then that would be a game changer, but I agree if this thing is still active I don't see how the cruise lines can start up again.

[Roger88]

I would not be going anywhere at the moment. Especially to western Europe and Italy particularly. I would rather stay at home and enjoy myself and family. Its very selfish risking your life and life of your loved ones going anywhere at the moment. In any case, staying at home is a good time waster 🙂 

[mek]

4 minutes ago, Roger88 said:

I would not be going anywhere at the moment. Especially to western Europe and Italy particularly. I would rather stay at home and enjoy myself and family. Its very selfish risking your life and life of your loved ones going anywhere at the moment. In any case, staying at home is a good time waster 🙂 

I still think when all is said and done that the vast majority of people will have contracted this and the vast majority will recover; however, if I'm going to be sick I want to be home, not on a ship that would be quarantined or half way around the world.

[pyrateslife4me84]

As someone who is presently confirmed to have COVID-19, we will get through this. There are areas with significant outbreaks right now—Western Europe, East Coast, West Coast, for example. Many of us already have it around here. Herd immunity will develop in those areas as it spreads elsewhere. That is why things close I’m impacted areas—slow the spread in places like NYC so it spreads more slowly and doesn’t overwhelm hospitals. But over half in NYC and LA will have this by May. Then conditions will slowly improve as it spreads elsewhere. Soon enough, port areas will be safe. Fall outbreaks will likely focus in other cities not currently impacted. 

[firefly333]

And they could possibly fast track a vaccine for later this year, let's be positive, instead of worse case.

 

If they find a way to cut the mortality rate agree it's also a game changer.

 

No company should be considering shutting down for 12 to 18 months as it would put them in bankruptcy. Maybe you missed the wall street journal article last friday that even 4 months would put this country into another great depression. There has to be a balance.

 

 

[Bradison]

3 minutes ago, pyrateslife4me84 said:

As someone who is presently confirmed to have COVID-19, we will get through this. There are areas with significant outbreaks right now—Western Europe, East Coast, West Coast, for example. Many of us already have it around here. Herd immunity will develop in those areas as it spreads elsewhere. That is why things close I’m impacted areas—slow the spread in places like NYC so it spreads more slowly and doesn’t overwhelm hospitals. But over half in NYC and LA will have this by May. Then conditions will slowly improve as it spreads elsewhere. Soon enough, port areas will be safe. Fall outbreaks will likely focus in other cities not currently impacted. 

 

Sorry to hear you have been directly impacted and I hope you are dealing with the virus as well as can be expected.  I think you are correct in that we need this thing to spread slowly so the health care implications can be managed effectively.

I am curious why you think 50% of NYC and LA will be infected if they are both under lock down?  Do you think it has already spread enough that those under lock down will give it to each other or do you think folks in those areas are not observing the lock down?

[pyrateslife4me84]

19 minutes ago, Bradison said:

 

Sorry to hear you have been directly impacted and I hope you are dealing with the virus as well as can be expected.  I think you are correct in that we need this thing to spread slowly so the health care implications can be managed effectively.

I am curious why you think 50% of NYC and LA will be infected if they are both under lock down?  Do you think it has already spread enough that those under lock down will give it to each other or do you think folks in those areas are not observing the lock down?

I don’t think it. The experts do. That’s why they are locking down—to slow it. But it’s still doubling every three days in outbreak zones. Locking down doesn’t stop spread—people still leave their houses. It just slows the faucet. Estimates suggest at least 1 million Americans already have it. We can’t strut around cavalierly on the beach because Ft. Lauderdale can’t handle Spring Break-size sick crowds. But we are allowed to shop, go for walks, and order take-out because that level of spread is acceptable. 
 

 

[Bradison]

1 minute ago, pyrateslife4me84 said:

I don’t think it. The experts do. That’s why they are locking down—to slow it. But it’s still doubling every three days in outbreak zones. Locking down doesn’t stop spread—people still leave their houses. It just slows the faucet. Estimates suggest at least 1 million Americans already have it. We can’t strut around cavalierly on the beach because Ft. Lauderdale can’t handle Spring Break-size sick crowds. But we are allowed to shop, go for walks, and order take-out because that level of spread is acceptable. 
 

 

 

I am weary of experts.  2 weeks ago the Ohio Director of HHS said over 100k Ohioans already have CV.  Limited testing has shown that to be way off and she has backed down saying it was an off-hand comment.

I am not a deny-it-all type but am very weary of eating the spoon-fed news and projections we are given.  Being in the Midwest my personal experience limits my viewpoint compared to someone like you, personally impacted in a "hot" zone so that is why I ask for your thoughts.

[pyrateslife4me84]

4 minutes ago, Bradison said:

 

I am weary of experts.  2 weeks ago the Ohio Director of HHS said over 100k Ohioans already have CV.  Limited testing has shown that to be way off and she has backed down saying it was an off-hand comment.

I am not a deny-it-all type but am very weary of eating the spoon-fed news and projections we are given.  Being in the Midwest my personal experience limits my viewpoint compared to someone like you, personally impacted in a "hot" zone so that is why I ask for your thoughts.

That’s certainly fair. It’s quite clear that, although they claim 5000 cases in NYC, actual numbers are substantially higher here. I was turned away three times from testing because I hadn’t traveled. Finally got tested—positive. At least I was already self-isolating. Many would call the hospital, get turned away, and go to school. 

[Bradison]

4 minutes ago, pyrateslife4me84 said:

That’s certainly fair. It’s quite clear that, although they claim 5000 cases in NYC, actual numbers are substantially higher here. I was turned away three times from testing because I hadn’t traveled. Finally got tested—positive. At least I was already self-isolating. Many would call the hospital, get turned away, and go to school. 

 

Complaints here are that results for testing are taking days and people expect hours.  Lots of lessons to be learned here.

 

I hope you are one of the "mild" symptoms crowd and are able to come through unscathed.  Thoughts and prayers headed your way.

 

Don 

[cruisinfanatic]

49 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

And they could possibly fast track a vaccine for later this year, let's be positive, instead of worse case.

 

If they find a way to cut the mortality rate agree it's also a game changer.

 

No company should be considering shutting down for 12 to 18 months as it would put them in bankruptcy. Maybe you missed the wall street journal article last friday that even 4 months would put this country into another great depression. There has to be a balance.

 

 

How many times have you heard from experts that this can't be done that fast? Except from the president of course

Edited March 22, 2020 by cruisinfanatic

[firefly333]

22 minutes ago, pyrateslife4me84 said:

I don’t think it. The experts do. That’s why they are locking down—to slow it. But it’s still doubling every three days in outbreak zones. Locking down doesn’t stop spread—people still leave their houses. It just slows the faucet. Estimates suggest at least 1 million Americans already have it. We can’t strut around cavalierly on the beach because Ft. Lauderdale can’t handle Spring Break-size sick crowds. But we are allowed to shop, go for walks, and order take-out because that level of spread is acceptable. 
 

 

Actually was the governor of calif who said over half of calif would get it and tons of expertsmdisagreed with him. 

 

Show one expert source saying half will get it and I'll show you ten who say the opposite. I'm sorry you are impacted and hope you will recover fast. I guess I cant blame your negative opinion which is NOT shared by the majority of experts. 

[mek]

52 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

And they could possibly fast track a vaccine for later this year, let's be positive, instead of worse case.

 

If they find a way to cut the mortality rate agree it's also a game changer.

 

No company should be considering shutting down for 12 to 18 months as it would put them in bankruptcy. Maybe you missed the wall street journal article last friday that even 4 months would put this country into another great depression. There has to be a balance.

 

 

The best hope right now is to find an effective treatment for the symptoms - if they can do that then that will be a game changer.

Most experts say a vaccine is 12- 15 months away.

[Judyrem]

51 minutes ago, pyrateslife4me84 said:

As someone who is presently confirmed to have COVID-19, we will get through this. There are areas with significant outbreaks right now—Western Europe, East Coast, West Coast, for example. Many of us already have it around here. Herd immunity will develop in those areas as it spreads elsewhere. That is why things close I’m impacted areas—slow the spread in places like NYC so it spreads more slowly and doesn’t overwhelm hospitals. But over half in NYC and LA will have this by May. Then conditions will slowly improve as it spreads elsewhere. Soon enough, port areas will be safe. Fall outbreaks will likely focus in other cities not currently impacted. 

How are you feeling?   What concerned you enough to get tested?  I hope I am not being impertinent but I am curious and have been reading many first hand accounts of patients illness and recoveries.

[firefly333]

8 minutes ago, cruisinfanatic said:

How many times have you heard from experts that this can't be done that fast? Except from the president of course

Actually I heard the head of the task force say he thought with luck November but if some already starting to be testing work out it's even possible to be faster.

 

Lots of trump haters and negative Nellie's here. Why bring in politics. 

 

I'm 69 and booked next january. I hope things are better, as I plan on cruising. 

 

I'm old enough I was there when my parents got the polio vaccine and stamped it out. Yes, I believe in America.

 

If the virus vaccine isnt here yet, I'll self quarantine but I'm not planning on not going.

 

My parents are 101 and 93, hence why I would self quarantine after I got home.

 

We have gotten thru other things, America will get thru this. 

Edited March 22, 2020 by firefly333

[cruisinfanatic]

24 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

Actually I heard the head of the task force say he thought with luck November but if some already starting to be testing work out it's even possible to be faster.

 

Lots of trump haters and negative Nellie's here. Why bring in politics. 

 

I'm 69 and booked next january. I hope things are better, as I plan on cruising. 

 

I'm old enough I was there when my parents got the polio vaccine and stamped it out. Yes, I believe in America.

 

If the virus vaccine isnt here yet, I'll self quarantine but I'm not planning on not going.

 

My parents are 101 and 93, hence why I would self quarantine after I got home.

 

We have gotten thru other things, America will get thru this. 

It has to work in tests. Then it has to be proven safe. This doesn't happen this year

[firefly333]

Just now, cruisinfanatic said:

It has to work in tests. Then it has to be proven safe. This doesn't happen this year

Right, and tests have already started.

 

I guess I've seen so many other times Americans triumphed I'm a optimist and my dad being a wwII vet, and my mom reminding me they are the greatest generation, I just am a optimist.

 

No one knows .... no one, even the people posting here as if they are experts.

[rtazz17]

3 hours ago, bouhunter said:

They are saying there will likely be waves of the virus over the next 12-18 months until a vaccine is available.  If that comes to be, one has to wonder how they could consider putting thousands of people together on ships under those circumstances.

Vaccine wont matter. Viruses mutate every year. The flu vaccine has a low success rate relatively speaking. The world health organization takes their best educated guess at the vaccine they provide and some years its completely wrong. We will have to live with this “new” flu and thats it. People will get it,people will recover and people will naturally become immune. There are many flu viruses that will come and go. This wont be the last. Can you imagine if you were forced to not be in a crowd for 18 months? I dont want to live in that world and neither will billions of others. Lets not get hysterical. There will be anti virals to treat symtoms. People with compromised immune systems are always at risk for everything. Eat right and exercise,that is your best immunity against this but most wont do that.

[rtazz17]

1 hour ago, pyrateslife4me84 said:

That’s certainly fair. It’s quite clear that, although they claim 5000 cases in NYC, actual numbers are substantially higher here. I was turned away three times from testing because I hadn’t traveled. Finally got tested—positive. At least I was already self-isolating. Many would call the hospital, get turned away, and go to school. 

Tons more are positive as well. Doesnt change anything. You will recover unless you are already compromised. The positive test you got didnt change anything you wouldnt already have done. When we all get sick we stay away from the sick person. At least thats what any person with common sense does and treat your symptoms. Of course when your compromised it can spin out of control,but every virus or bacterial infection will/can do that. A lot of common sense goes a long way. 

[rtazz17]

2 hours ago, mek said:

I still think when all is said and done that the vast majority of people will have contracted this and the vast majority will recover; however, if I'm going to be sick I want to be home, not on a ship that would be quarantined or half way around the world.

Right but who ever wants any type of illness on vacation? Nobody has a crystal ball. You get sick when your body decides it. Thats life.
 

Eventually getting covid 19 isnt going to quarantine you. Your quarantining individuals now to not overwhelm the healthcare system. This isnt how its going to be treated months from now.  

[Baron Barracuda]

Believe the 50%+ cries are from politicians who 1) are trying to impress on public the seriousness of situation and  2) are lobbying for additional federal assistance.

 

It seems crazy and probably impossible to accomplish, but if the country totally shut down and everyone stayed home in under a month this whole thing would be over.

 

Two bright spots:

Yesterday a new test from Cepheid was approved that generates results in under an hour.  5000 machines already in use in US hospitals diagnosing other diseases now will be able to perform millions of Corona tests.

 

Dr  Yancopoulos at Regeneron who developed an ebola vaccine in only four months is almost ready to begin clinical trials on a Corona treatment / vaccine. Regeneron uses mice whose immune systems have been genetically engineered to resemble a human.  They inject the mice with the virus and an assortment of human antibodies.  They have reportedly found 150 antibodies that appear to work against the disease and are combining the strongest ones into a new drug.  They hope to be approved and in full production by August.

 

[nelblu]

I read about the number of people getting and/or dying from Covid 19, but not too much news from those with the Influenza.  Wonder what the split is. 

 

The World Health Organization has determined that the flu kills between 250,000 to 500,000 people each year. About 10% of U.S. residents get influenza each year. About 100,000 are hospitalized and 36,000 Americans die each year from the complications of the flu.

 

Reference: sharecare.com/health/cold-and-flu/how-common-is-influenza

[Starry Eyes]

 

Quote

 

It seems crazy and probably impossible to accomplish, but if the country totally shut down and everyone stayed home in under a month this whole thing would be over.

Not only does that sound crazy and probably impossible to accomplish, there is another problem:  it only works if the disease ends in the rest of the world, too.  If not, some infected people will travel here again, re-seeding the disease here again, and cases of Covid19 will be spreading here again.  We are trying to flatten the curve and hopefully the most vulnerable (that those around them) are being especially vigilant.

Quote

Two bright spots:

Yesterday a new test from Cepheid was approved that generates results in under an hour.  5000 machines already in use in US hospitals diagnosing other diseases now will be able to perform millions of Corona tests.

Ah, another test is approved.  The machines are in place.  And that is good news.  But are there “millions” of test kits, reagents and swabs to suddenly do the “millions of Corona tests” ?  I suspect it will take time for them to make and distribute that many, though every thousand is wonderful.

 

[molly361]

2 hours ago, pyrateslife4me84 said:

As someone who is presently confirmed to have COVID-19, we will get through this. There are areas with significant outbreaks right now—Western Europe, East Coast, West Coast, for example. Many of us already have it around here. Herd immunity will develop in those areas as it spreads elsewhere. That is why things close I’m impacted areas—slow the spread in places like NYC so it spreads more slowly and doesn’t overwhelm hospitals. But over half in NYC and LA will have this by May. Then conditions will slowly improve as it spreads elsewhere. Soon enough, port areas will be safe. Fall outbreaks will likely focus in other cities not currently impacted. 

A hope you get well quickly- I have a friend in Danbury that just got confirmed with it yesterday