Substantial Doubt of 'Going Concern'

[Fido Chuckwagon]

4 hours ago, spanishguy1970 said:

well i am far from Happy, I love going on a cruise in fact NCL has been the only cruise line i have been on. I was planning on looking into booking a few Celebrity cruises but this virus thing occurred so going on a cruise wont happen anytime soon for us. However, i do think this is a blessing in disguise that if these cruise lines survive they need to restructure and appreciate customers more, NCL was getting ridiculous with their nickel and dime and i hope they now realize without us there are no cruises. This will stop their constant building of bigger ships while declining our experience  on them. IMO.

Yeah this.  Del Rio is reaping what he sowed here.  Maybe the pandemic wasn’t foreseeable, but his years of mismanagement of the company after O’Sheehan left are coming back to bite now.  There is a reason why NCL is doing so much worth than Carnival and Royal, and that reason is Del Rio.  

[Mrdodgy]

Just now, Fido Chuckwagon said:

Yeah this.  Del Rio is reaping what he sowed here.  Maybe the pandemic wasn’t foreseeable, but his years of mismanagement of the company after O’Sheehan left are coming back to bite now.  There is a reason why NCL is doing so much worth than Carnival and Royal, and that reason is Del Rio.  

Agreed really good comment.

 

Also I agree they NCLH will sell off a brand and it will be NCL no the smaller one which are high profit and rename the smaller group, Really sad but NCL is nearing the end of it journey IMO.

[julig22]

38 minutes ago, latserrof said:

 

Better check your card benefits; Under "what's not covered:"

 

Financial insolvency of the Cardholder’s travel agency, tour operator, or travel supplier

 

https://www.chase.com/card-benefits/sapphirereserve/travel

Chase (and several others) changed the terms effective Dec 1, 2019, without notice.  Financial insolvency moved from "covered" to "not covered".  It would be interesting to see how that plays out if someone booked prior to that date and there is a bankruptcy (NCL, airline, hotel, etc).

[AdoraBelle]

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/05/05/florida-adds-113-coronavirus-deaths-a-new-one-day-record/

[ECCruise]

1 minute ago, AdoraBelle said:

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/05/05/florida-adds-113-coronavirus-deaths-a-new-one-day-record/

And this is NOT "a month old"

It was posted today.

[Fido Chuckwagon]

37 minutes ago, Ozzieru1e said:

 

I opened a credit card dispute 4/25/2020 after being given the runaround by NCL.  Explained to my bank dispute representative I wasn’t informed until 3/13/2020 that my 4/05/2020 cruise was suspended.  I made a $1000 down payment (plus used 2 CNs coupons) 8/2019 and made final payment 12/2019.  I received a message my bank is researching my claims and will provide a response within 30 days.

 

 It’s my understanding the dispute time limits 120 calendar days clock changes based on the date that the cardholder was first made aware that the service would not be provided not to exceed 540 calendar days from the transaction processing date...I became aware of suspended cruise on 3/13/2020 so I should be able to dispute such charges.

 I have not received a temporary credit maybe because I always pay off monthly credit card balances in full...I hope paying off my credit card in full doesn’t hinder my chances of getting a full refund chargeback!!!

You are pretty much always going to win a dispute where the company agrees that they are processing a refund for you.  One of the first things that happens when you file a dispute is the credit card company reaches out to the company.  If the company doesn’t respond within a certain amount of time OR if the company agrees you are owed the refund, you win the dispute.  Unless NCL lies and says you are not owed a refund, you’re going to win.  

[Mrdodgy]

10 minutes ago, seaman11 said:

what i am saying is , when any ship is ready  and the port is a go and dock is a go, they will have no issue filling up. many of us home fore months (by august) itching to go.  carnival offered its limited july sailing and sold out in 1 day. (granted that got canceled but the want is there)

Sold out no it was not. The ship was only booked 1/3 of its capacity. Source Carnival. lets see what demand is like when the rest of industry such as hotels open I love cruising but not for a year or so to let this virus run its course or a vaccine is found

 

Its one ship seaman. 

 

 

[luv2kroooz]

5 hours ago, Corliss said:

Good article in the Chicago Tribune -- the new investor is quoted and expressing confidence.

 

 https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/os-bz-norwegian-cruise-line-holdings-sec-filing-concern-20200505-p5l5wcqz2je67bbbsnvxwcsqym-story.html

I would hope so. They just dumped $400 million. What else could they say...we invested $400 million in an Enterprise we believe will eventually fail?

[Fido Chuckwagon]

32 minutes ago, seaman11 said:

i disagree masses dont want . many are not understanding that a good amount of ppl are on the packed beaches right now as we speak , nevermind 90 days from now . there is still a need /want for cruises .  its just a matter of when they get going , i dont see an issue with them filling them up by august. 

Packed beaches are a lot cheaper than cruises.  We are at like 20 percent unemployment and rising.  And packed beaches for a few hours are significantly less dangerous than cruising right now, likely by several magnitudes.  

[Mrdodgy]

Oh and the L Catterton money only appears after NCLH raises a further $1.0 billion. With an inters rate of 7.5% even they know its risky. 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

26 minutes ago, seaman11 said:

what i am saying is , when any ship is ready  and the port is a go and dock is a go, they will have no issue filling up. many of us home fore months (by august) itching to go.  carnival offered its limited july sailing and sold out in 1 day. (granted that got canceled but the want is there)

This is just not reality.  NCL didn’t fill it’s ships after the Great Recession and this is many orders of magnitudes worse economically, on top of the health concerns. Maybe the FIRST cruise after lockdown could fill up from 3,000 people just like you who are really excited to cruise and still have the money, but that’s it, not to mention half the people who go on that cruise are even money or better to come back with a case of COVID.  

 

Edited May 5, 2020 by Fido Chuckwagon

[disneykins]

18 minutes ago, Fido Chuckwagon said:

Yeah, this.  It’s very likely that FCC’s are worthless or near worthless.  Nobody is going to pay $100 for a $250 FCC right now.  $25 is pushing it.

Someone will buy them. Someone is still buying the stock. If I buy 10 cruise next certificates from you at $25 each, you lock in a loss of $1000 ($100 per certificate). I pay you $250. If the company goes under, I'm out $250. If they don't, I have 10 certificates worth $2500. That's a nice profit on a $250 outlay and not much of a loss if I lose it all. And I would use those certificates on 5 cruises in the next year or 2. Not saying I would do this, just making the argument that there is always a market for anything.

[ECCruise]

3 minutes ago, disneykins said:

 there is always a market for anything.

Yep.  There was a LOT of market for Enron.  Until there wasn't.

[Fido Chuckwagon]

To everyone who thinks NCL survives in some form even if it ends up getting bought by another company, remember that these ships are expensive even just to park and idle and keep maintained.  When this is all over there are going to be *way* too many cruise ships worldwide versus demand.  It’s entirely possible that most of these ships end up mothballed and sold for scrap when the company goes under.

[seaman11]

13 minutes ago, Fido Chuckwagon said:

This is just not reality.  NCL didn’t fill it’s ships after the Great Recession and this is many orders of magnitudes worse economically, on top of the health concerns. Maybe the FIRST cruise after lockdown could fill up from 3,000 people just like you who are really excited to cruise and still have the money, but that’s it, not to mention half the people who go on that cruise are even money or better to come back with a case of COVID.  

 

many of us are fortunate enough by still being able to work , and some getting decent unemployment. with 600 a week tacked on.  as i said carnival sold out the limited july sailings in 1 day, 1 day.  many of us are at home for months and almost no money spent because we cant go out.  saving all that and wanting to go on vacation. 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

2 minutes ago, seaman11 said:

many of us are fortunate enough by still being able to work , and some getting decent unemployment. with 600 a week tacked on.  as i said carnival sold out the limited july sailings in 1 day, 1 day.  many of us are at home for months and almost no money spent because we cant go out.  saving all that and wanting to go on vacation. 

I mean, one of us is wrong and one of us is right.  I guess let’s wait and see.  I still remember people posting on, I think it was the Princess boards, how happy they were about their extra $200 onboard credit for their April cruises while the rest of us were trying to explain that there weren’t going to be any April cruises.  This discussion reminds me a lot of that one.  

Edited May 5, 2020 by Fido Chuckwagon

[julig22]

55 minutes ago, Ozzieru1e said:

 

I opened a credit card dispute 4/25/2020 after being given the runaround by NCL.  Explained to my bank dispute representative I wasn’t informed until 3/13/2020 that my 4/05/2020 cruise was suspended.  I made a $1000 down payment (plus used 2 CNs coupons) 8/2019 and made final payment 12/2019.  I received a message my bank is researching my claims and will provide a response within 30 days.

 

 It’s my understanding the dispute time limits 120 calendar days clock changes based on the date that the cardholder was first made aware that the service would not be provided not to exceed 540 calendar days from the transaction processing date...I became aware of suspended cruise on 3/13/2020 so I should be able to dispute such charges.

 I have not received a temporary credit maybe because I always pay off monthly credit card balances in full...I hope paying off my credit card in full doesn’t hinder my chances of getting a full refund chargeback!!!

Paying off your credit card has nothing to do with getting a refund - you will just have a credit balance, which you can leave to pay off other bills or you can request a check.  You are correct that the clock starts when you were made aware that the cruise was cancelled, not the date you paid.

 

However, the fact that you have not gotten a temporary credit does not bode well - those are usually applied immediately, but that depends on the bank.  You don't say whether or not you have applied for a refund through NCL.

 

Visa has said they may not accept disputes if the merchant isn't able to provide the service.

"A dispute for goods or services not received will only be considered valid the following criteria are met:

• The submission includes a detailed explanation of the cause of the dispute.
• The merchant is able to provide service, but fails to do so
• The cardholder has already attempted to resolve the dispute with the merchant directly."

 

[tallnthensome]

22 minutes ago, ECCruise said:

And this is NOT "a month old"

It was posted today.

Yea, I don’t see the huge success story here the other poster was touting previously. They are obviously the “Move along folks, nothing to see here” type while the fireworks factory explodes behind them ..... 

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

12 minutes ago, Fido Chuckwagon said:

To everyone who thinks NCL survives in some form even if it ends up getting bought by another company, remember that these ships are expensive even just to park and idle and keep maintained.  When this is all over there are going to be *way* too many cruise ships worldwide versus demand.  It’s entirely possible that most of these ships end up mothballed and sold for scrap when the company goes under.

Yes, yes and yes.

This is precisely what some of us have been saying since mid-March. The industry has way, way too many ships -- and many of them mega-jumbo floating continents. All are based on high-occupancy, mass market sales. And the shipyards have a backlog of orders for more.
 

Even if all three major lines survive, there is no way they come close to the kind of bookings & growth they've had in the past. The global near-depression and the resiliency of COVID-1i ensure this. 

And cruise ships are not easily converted to freighters. Worse yet, the entire hospitality industry is in deep crisis for the long term ... so in some other year, perhaps a defunct cruise line's ships could be converted to floating hotels. Not this time, though; Marriott and Hilton are severely over-inventoried already.

So my best projection is that before 2022, a big batch of cruise ships will be beached at Alang. None of us will enjoy that prospect, but that's irrelevant to how this will play out. Cruising is in far worse trouble than many CC members seem willing to accept.

Edited May 5, 2020 by EscapeFromConnecticut

[tallnthensome]

2 minutes ago, Fido Chuckwagon said:

I mean, one of us is wrong and one of us is right.  I guess let’s wait and see.  I still remember people posting on, I think it was the Princess boards, how happy they were about their extra $200 onboard credit for their April cruises while the rest of us were trying to explain that there weren’t going to be any April cruises.  This discussion reminds me a lot of that one.  

I say it in a friendly banter way that Seaman has been wrong with every post he has made in the last month but he is by far the most optimistic person you’ll find to his credit  though, lol! 

[tallnthensome]

5 minutes ago, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

Yes, yes and yes.

This is precisely what some of us have been saying since mid-March. The industry has way, way too many ships -- many of the mega-jumbo floating continents. All of them based on high-occupancy, mass market sales. And the shipyards have a backlog of orders for more.
 

Even if all three major lines survive, there is no way they come close to the kind of bookings & growth they've had in the past. And cruise ships are not easily converted to freighters. Worse yet, the entire hospitality industry is in deep crisis for the long term ... so in some other year, perhaps a defunct cruise line's ships could be converted to floating hotels. Not this time, though; Marriott and Hilton are severely over-inventoried already.

So my best projection is that before 2022, a big batch of cruise ships will be beached at Alang. None of us will enjoy that prospect, but that's irrelevant to how this will play out. Cruising is in far worse trouble than many CC members seem willing to accept.

I love cruising as much as anyone and I still have three booked after the one I recently  cancelled could but this is truthful ^^^^^^.

Edited May 5, 2020 by tallnthensome

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

8 minutes ago, tallnthensome said:

I say it in a friendly banter way that Seaman has been wrong with every post he has made in the last month but he is by far the most optimistic person you’ll find to his credit  though, lol! 

tallnthensome -  There seem to be a few on every board here.
       And nothing changes their thinking ...  OK, I suppose, for anyone who values "unwillingness to change mind" as a virtue.

  Cruise execs: "We'll sail in May"
  Optimists: "Hooray!! We can take their word to the bank"
  Cruise execs: "Well folks, ah ... make that June"
  Optimists: "Huh? What happened ... well, er, I guess ... Hooray!! We can take their word to the bank"
  Cruise execs: "Hey, we're gonna change that up ... let's say July"
  Optimists: "But ... I still don't have my refund from April? ... eermm, uh, I guess ... Hooray!! We can take their word to the bank"

  Cruise execs: "Great news gang, we're sailing in August"
  Optimists:  Optimists: "Oh no, that's awful! ... oops sorry, I meant ... Hooray!! We can take their word to the bank"

 

 

Edited May 5, 2020 by EscapeFromConnecticut

[billyu]

1 hour ago, seaman11 said:

i disagree masses dont want . many are not understanding that a good amount of ppl are on the packed beaches right now as we speak , nevermind 90 days from now . there is still a need /want for cruises .  its just a matter of when they get going , i dont see an issue with them filling them up by august. 

 

The local radio news station never reports on things like the cruise industry. One of the stories being reported today was NCL is going out business because it’s unsafe to cruise.

 

Persecution is reality.

[Mrdodgy]

7 minutes ago, tallnthensome said:

I say it in a friendly banter way that Seaman has been wrong with every post he has made in the last month but he is by far the most optimistic person you’ll find to his credit  though, lol! 

Agreed with this 

[seaman11]

7 minutes ago, tallnthensome said:

I say it in a friendly banter way that Seaman has been wrong with every post he has made in the last month but he is by far the most optimistic person you’ll find to his credit  though, lol! 

well yes i have been wrong thinking june was a real possibility and for sure by july. (in a limited capacity)  im still wondering why they cant get it going by july in florida .  Carnival seems committed to aug 1st so we shall see.