Substantial Doubt of 'Going Concern'

[spanishguy1970]

25 minutes ago, seaman11 said:

dont know why cruises would be almost happy the line could go under.  but this is just the media,  real businessmen know how things work, they had to file had to disclose it by law and are fishing for investors, likely they will get some. 

well i am far from Happy, I love going on a cruise in fact NCL has been the only cruise line i have been on. I was planning on looking into booking a few Celebrity cruises but this virus thing occurred so going on a cruise wont happen anytime soon for us. However, i do think this is a blessing in disguise that if these cruise lines survive they need to restructure and appreciate customers more, NCL was getting ridiculous with their nickel and dime and i hope they now realize without us there are no cruises. This will stop their constant building of bigger ships while declining our experience  on them. IMO.

Edited May 5, 2020 by spanishguy1970

[zqvol]

3 minutes ago, NightOne said:

 

 I would be willing to sell mine for $100 a piece ($25 each loss for me) but the question is where can I sell them easiest? And I want to sell all 4 at once so $400.

 

EBay and PayPal take too big a cut for my tastes.

 if you can get 10 cents on the dollar you will be lucky. No one in their right mind will do anything with NCL right now.

 

[LMaxwell]

2 minutes ago, julig22 said:

I have the same - but the flaw (I think) in your logic is that they might not pay out any more than the amount you paid for your fare on the card - plus, I think somewhere buried in the terms is something about certificates not being covered.  But if you lost your luggage, then that $5 would activate the policy!

 

Also, check your coverages carefully; I have cards that include free insurance/travel protection, etc., but stipulate the entire booking must be made on the card, no partial payments for partial coverage, for example

[William W]

1 minute ago, tallnthensome said:

I never said the SEC report was written by them. The way you keep stating they are fishing for investors Makes it sound like they are using this bad news to their advantage or strategically. They have been fishing for months.

I agree with you here.  They were forced to disclosed this due to regulatory requirement.

 

Imagine, who in the right mind will book with NCL now.  In fact, if I were one of their supplier, I will definitely look into cutting them off their credits.  With this news, there will be a slew of cancellation of customers trying to get their money back before they declare bankrupt.  It is probably like a bank run at NCL right now.   

 

I couldn't imagine any sane business person will use this to fish for investors, the publication of this news more or less just accelerated their death spiral and any investors or lenders out there will ask for better terms when dealing with someone desperate. 

[Formula280SS]

1 hour ago, PelicanBill said:

The is both a required SEC filing AND a press release. 3 of them, in fact, all posted on the Investor relation site for NCL.

Agreed.

1 hour ago, PelicanBill said:

 

It is a required signal that finances are precarious in the short term - meaning about 6 months. Exactly what several of us were saying in response to the last press release. And that's give or take depending on debt restructuring, securing more debt, and the rate of cancellations and refunds requests. Taking on debt likely does mean accepting a financial controlling interest from a private equity firm or something similar.

Just a technical comment, the new "Going Concern" standards per the AICPA are the ability to sustain** for a 1-Year period "from the issuance of the Financial Statements" (I believe they issued their 2019 10-K 2/27/2020).

 

**When Management Is Required to Make a Specific Evaluat$400M ion Under the Applicable Financial
Reporting Framework

 

https://www.aicpa.org/research/standards/auditattest/downloadabledocuments/sas_132.pdf

5. Some financial reporting frameworks explicitly require management to evaluate the
entity’s ability to continue as a going concern for a reasonable period of time and provide
disclosures related to the entity’s ability to continue as a going concern. For example, FASB
Accounting Standards Codification© (ASC) requires management to evaluate whether there are
conditions and events, considered in the aggregate, that raise substantial doubt about an entity’s
ability to continue as a going concern within one year after the date that the financial statements
are issued (or within one year after the date that the financial statements are available to be
issued, when applicable).3

1 hour ago, PelicanBill said:

 

it DOES mean that NCL is admitting they cannot sustain as they are, and must make financial changes to survive or else enter Chapter 11.  

Agreed.

1 hour ago, PelicanBill said:

 

Let's hope it does not come to Chapter 11. That process injects 4-6 months of additional uncertainty while they go through restructuring.

If they do it sooner, rather than later, it would probably chew up the down time. 

 

However, there are a lot of credits, senior unsecured, ship-by-ship secured, public debt deferrals, new $400M private equity debt (convertible), proposed/needed $650M added debt (maybe also convertible) and $350M stock issuance (hard to see a market for stock when we do not know the convertible terms of the above-referenced debt; i.e., at what stock price?).

 

If cruising resumed, while in bankruptcy, a bit more complicated if the request permission from the bankruptcy court, with interim financing, etc. all very, very difficult.

[Corliss]

Read the Chicago Tribune article I linked above.  It sets out their plan.  They have gotten a 400 million investment IF they can raise 1 billion more....part through debt and the rest through equity offerings.

[Yorkvillain]

Any word from Cruise Critic on when they are going to close the NCL section of the forum? 

Edited May 5, 2020 by Yorkvillain

[tallnthensome]

1 minute ago, Yorkvillain said:

Any word from Cruise Critic on when they are going to close the NCL section of the  forum? 

Maybe NCL will charge us to enter this area of the site  like they do for Vibe passes. God knows they could use the money. 

[ECCruise]

NCL being upfront with this SEC filing is "trolling for investors" is akin to not bathing or brushing your teeth for a week, wearing unwashed clothes that are practically rags and 2 shoes of different styles and going on a blind date is "looking for a spouse."

[Newleno]

2 minutes ago, ECCruise said:

NCL being upfront with this SEC filing is "trolling for investors" is akin to not bathing or brushing your teeth for a week, wearing unwashed clothes that are practically rags and 2 shoes of different styles and going on a blind date is "looking for a spouse."

thats how i met my wife

[Heartfelttraveler]

[ECCruise]

1 minute ago, Newleno said:

thats how i met my wife

Good plan, then! 😉

[PelicanBill]

11 minutes ago, Formula280SS said:

...

However, there are a lot of credits, senior unsecured, ship-by-ship secured, public debt deferrals, new $400M private equity debt (convertible), proposed/needed $650M added debt (maybe also convertible) and $350M stock issuance (hard to see a market for stock when we do not know the convertible terms of the above-referenced debt; i.e., at what stock price?).

---

 

Having been through it, another dimension is the discharge and restructuring of all third party contracts.  Every lease, every supplier agreement, every contract for advertising, every supplier that operates docks, terminals, does maintenance, supplies fuel... every. single. one. has to be presented to the court through the bankruptcy manager, and determined to be one of: discharged, restructured with agreement, or re-justified as is.  That too a long time!

[GettotheSun]

Oh well...looks like those of us with FCC may be up the creek without a paddle.  At least we don't have "murder hornets"...oh, never mind.

 

I spent far too much money on my planned cruise.   I'm out quite the stack if they go belly up.  Oh well, I did have fun planning it.  Maybe I'll pretend I actually went on the cruise and write a review.  Ya, that will make me feel better. lol

[Heartfelttraveler]

Deleted

Edited May 5, 2020 by Heartfelttraveler

[ECCruise]

1 minute ago, Heartfelttraveler said:

I love the "negative press" meme.

As if the direct words in the 8K didn't provoke it.  So disingenuous. 

[Trimone]

Were being monitored by NCL, don’t like adverse publicity do they?

[mking8288]

24 minutes ago, AdoraBelle said:

(Nearly/almost ) Everyone knows Florida is cooking the books on their death rates.

https://www.businessinsider.com/florida-officials-stop-publishing-coronavirus-death-toll-data-2020-4

 

There, fixed it for you. Just my edits to help ... since, some clearly disagreed and remained in "denial" (I say that as an early-retired licensed mental health professional, summoned among others registered volunteers across our state last month to respond to help with support, including Fatality Management Task Force) - a clinical diagnosis.  PTSD is the other wave inbound.

 

All I can say is that among the few P+ cruisers, some of them that we are in touch with by other means, are most definitely staying off the playing field behind the sidelines, and aren't in a hurry to gamble with our money.  Yes, we have 4 CN certificates that we are prepared to lose, not a big deal in the grand scheme of things.  

 

If NCL filed & go under, we got more losses to claim against our Capital Gains, LOL.  Facts of life ... just be glad to not be among the officially reported 70,000 in history-making USA.  

[Corliss]

This apparently was written for employees, not for the public. "We appreciate you and the incredible support you and your team provide."

[NightOne]

8 minutes ago, Heartfelttraveler said:

 

Source?

[Newleno]

2 minutes ago, ECCruise said:

I love the "negative press" meme.

As if the direct words in the 8K didn't provoke it.  So disingenuous. 

I also find it troubling from a legal/financial/investor situation, you just put out an 8k, and now you are saying you "we expect to be well positioned to weather this storm."  gamblers better take notice, who you gonna believe

[Trimone]

Well I’m not allowed to mention my fantastic NCL representative because the moderator won’t allow it, but his boss can contribute to the site? 2 minutes before removal starting Now 

[tallnthensome]

I just read that they have two ships up for collateral now as well as both Great Stirrup Cay and Harvest Caye. I must have missed that earlier, 

Edited May 5, 2020 by tallnthensome

[ECCruise]

1 minute ago, Corliss said:

This apparently was written for employees, not for the public. "We appreciate you and the incredible support you and your team provide."

Could easily be for TAs.  

[Heartfelttraveler]

5 minutes ago, NightOne said:

 

Source?

http://www.nclhltdmedia.com/