Ncl new covid19 response. Good planning.

[CruiseMH]

21 hours ago, ColeThornton said:

 

That won't really matter.  It's impossible to social distance on a ship.  I highly doubt that any ship will sail at only 30% capacity anyway.

With 30% it will be. Just  remember some of your memories on the cruise ships you have been(e.g. in the atrium, the theater,the pooldeck or the restaurant) and now imagine that 70% of the people being there are gone.....and you will find out that social distancing is easily possible.Of course there some help from the cruise line needed(e.g. markings on the floor or the seats, signs and maybe one-way hallways),but it is possible.

Although i also think that they will sail at minimum 50% of the capacity.

[chengkp75]

16 minutes ago, graphicguy said:

All I know is he’s working on Royal, Princess and Celebrity cruise ships.  What the cruise companies have required him to do is to get the engines inspected, maintained and ready to go.  Don’t know about the type of engines, just that they’re used in cruise ships.

 

He said he’s on ships for the next 90 days in preparation.  

Yes, I can understand someone from GE working with those three cruise lines, as they have gas turbine generator sets.  I am confused about your statement earlier that he met with NCL maintenance personnel, since NCL does not have any gas turbine engines.  Small, off topic point, but interested.

[chengkp75]

On 6/2/2020 at 10:30 AM, PelicanBill said:

 

Studies have shown that this virus has a higher level of remaining in the air over a wide area from sick people. It's why we are wearing masks - to reduce the amount of airborn particles and the space around them.  The reason ships are needing to improve airflow is that much of the air is aggressively recirculated for cooling efficiency. The ships that went on lockdown still had a high degree of spread and infection after weeks of lockdown. The airflow is suspected of being the reason since the new infections could not be traced to food delivery.

Well, the only study I know of that deals with viral spread by AC, for covid, is the one from the Chinese restaurant, and that was determined that the air flow from the AC vent would carry virus further than if the infected person was not sitting in close proximity to the vent.  That is a whole different discussion than whether a virus can travel across a room to the return vent, then a hundred feet or so up the return duct, through the filter and air handler, and then another hundred feet or so through the supply duct to the outlet vent, and then to a person.

 

Actually, the study by the Japanese Health Ministry did not point to AC as being a major transmission vector, especially once the passengers were in lockdown in their cabins, as cabin air is not co-mingled.

[chengkp75]

20 hours ago, bmwman said:

Based on the fact that 30% is Breakeven according to Del Rio it might. Price and onboard services will be the issue.

 

Regards 

I did not see that Del Rio stated that 30% is a break even point, but I did see an RCI executive say that some of their ships can kind of break even at 30-35%, on an EBITDA basis.  This means the ship would break even on operating costs, but without considering any of the capital financing for the ship, or any of the corporate expenses that are assigned to the ship.  This would be like saying, "my paycheck will break even if I pay the utility and grocery bills, but skip the mortgage.  Would they lose less at 30% capacity than sitting idle?  Yes.  Would they "break even"?  No.  Historically, a ship sailing at 100% normal capacity covers all the expenses of the ship (including those disregarded by EBITDA) with the fares, and onboard revenue provides the profit.  So, at 30%, they are taking all cruise fares and onboard revenue and covering the operating expenses only, and swallowing the financing and corporate expenses.

[NutsAboutGolf]

4 hours ago, hallux said:

Possibly, but those prices will still be higher...

 

On the 3 ships I've been on the stairways are open to the elevator lobby.  By "closing off entire decks" @NutsAboutGolf was referring to leaving the fire doors closed so the hallways to the cabins on those decks are inaccessible.  Shutting down the stairways is simply not possible.

 

Thanks.  That's accurate and furthermore no one will be able to book any cabins in those decks.  May keep some open for a quarantine ward, may store half the loungers/dining tables/chairs in those cabins, but they could turn all the A/C (or heat) down for the entire deck.  Perhaps some NCL ships don't have hallway railings, here they are on the Sun:

[chengkp75]

5 hours ago, hallux said:

Possibly, but those prices will still be higher...

 

On the 3 ships I've been on the stairways are open to the elevator lobby.  By "closing off entire decks" @NutsAboutGolf was referring to leaving the fire doors closed so the hallways to the cabins on those decks are inaccessible.  Shutting down the stairways is simply not possible.

Even when the fire doors are closed, you are able to open them, so you could not actually make the decks "inacessible".

[NutsAboutGolf]

3 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

Even when the fire doors are closed, you are able to open them, so you could not actually make the decks "inacessible".

 

Just my opinion to how cruise lines will reduce capacity, many are hoping every other cabin will be empty and thus less people per deck.  I don't think they'll do it that way, I believe it's simply easier for the staff if they don't have to clean entire decks.  Cameras do cover everything and whether or not if they want post a security guard or simply add motion detectors that's how I believe they'll reduce capacity.

[graphicguy]

1 hour ago, chengkp75 said:

Yes, I can understand someone from GE working with those three cruise lines, as they have gas turbine generator sets.  I am confused about your statement earlier that he met with NCL maintenance personnel, since NCL does not have any gas turbine engines.  Small, off topic point, but interested.

I'll have to ask him about that when I hear from him, again.  He's a pretty busy guy, right now.  And, his internet service on board is no better than ours is when we cruise....LOL!

[Snowrose]

On 6/2/2020 at 9:58 AM, AK Dreaming said:

Agreed, even a day on deck in the Caribbean in September would get you kicked out of the MDR and locked in your cabin.

My husband made a point, how will they correct for women who are ovulating? I know when I was that age my temp could definitely go above 100.4.

[room with a view]

18 hours ago, FLAHAM said:

Also, please stay six feet away from me in ship elevators.  

And in the long corridors .

[Snowrose]

On 6/2/2020 at 10:51 AM, graphicguy said:

 As such, the transmission through passenger and crew breathing, sneezing, coughing etc (which is the overwhelming way it is transmitted) is virtually eliminated.  

Welllll, no. Disease coming in through the air ducts from other areas of the ship would be virtually eliminated. Disease coming from the guy 2 rows over from you who just sneezed, nope.

[graphicguy]

10 minutes ago, Snowrose said:

Welllll, no. Disease coming in through the air ducts from other areas of the ship would be virtually eliminated. Disease coming from the guy 2 rows over from you who just sneezed, nope.

Carry disinfectant wipes for the guy who might sneeze.  Sneezes can be cause from a variety of things....cologne or perfume, dust, allergies, etc.  Just because a person sneezes, doesn't mean s/he's riddled with COVID 19.  If the person who sneezes was not feverish upon embarkation, as they're checking for, I believe it's highly doubtful s/he's spreading the virus.

[Snowrose]

4 minutes ago, graphicguy said:

Carry disinfectant wipes for the guy who might sneeze.  Sneezes can be cause from a variety of things....cologne or perfume, dust, allergies, etc.  Just because a person sneezes, doesn't mean s/he's riddled with COVID 19.  If the person who sneezes was not feverish upon embarkation, as they're checking for, I believe it's highly doubtful s/he's spreading the virus.

 

That's blatantly obvious. I'm of course refering to someone who is carrying the virus. And disinfectant wipes don't protect you from virus that can float in the air for an extended period of time.

 

That said, I would probably just be one of those people wearing a mask to lessen my chances of catching anything, as I had lung surgery last year.

[njhorseman]

15 minutes ago, Snowrose said:

 

That's blatantly obvious. I'm of course refering to someone who is carrying the virus. And disinfectant wipes don't protect you from virus that can float in the air for an extended period of time.

 

That said, I would probably just be one of those people wearing a mask to lessen my chances of catching anything, as I had lung surgery last year.

Unless you're using an N 95 mask you're not protecting yourself. The cloth masks that the CDC and many states have advised or mandated that we wear in public are to prevent you, the wearer, from transmitting infection, not to prevent you from becoming the victim of virus transmission from others not wearing a mask. They are useful when everyone or almost everyone is wearing them, but on a cruise ship if many are not wearing masks to protect yourself you need an N 95.

[pmd98052]

46 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

but on a cruise ship if many are not wearing masks to protect yourself you need an N 95.

 

Everyone will have to wear a mask - pretty sure cruise lines aren't going to risk that. At least while walking around. Guessing they might well issue N95 masks to all passengers.

 

The part I don't get is the temp checks. Of course you need them but we also know people carry/spread this with zero temperature so its not a big safe guard.

Edited June 3, 2020 by pmd98052

[NutsAboutGolf]

2 minutes ago, pmd98052 said:

 

Everyone will have to wear a mask - pretty sure cruise lines aren't going to risk that. At least while walking around. Guessing they might well issue N95 masks to all passengers.

 

The part I don't get is the temp checks. Of course you need them but we also know people carry/spread this with zero temperature so its not a big safe guard.

 

They would have said masks, now if numbers start increasing again, that could change.  It's possible very select activities such as casino table games may require a mask.

 

Temp for two reason, catch the low hanging fruit as its the most common symptom if one is showing symptoms and also is it really a bad thing to not allow a pax to embark if they have a fever?  If someone is 101f at embarkment, they probably won't even Covid 19 test them, simply highly recommend they head to the nearest testing center.

[graphicguy]

1 hour ago, Snowrose said:

 

That's blatantly obvious. I'm of course refering to someone who is carrying the virus. And disinfectant wipes don't protect you from virus that can float in the air for an extended period of time.

 

That said, I would probably just be one of those people wearing a mask to lessen my chances of catching anything, as I had lung surgery last year.

Trying to remember where I saw this, but it was a medical journal of some sort....

 

"The weight of the evidence suggests that the new coronavirus can exist as an aerosol — a physics term meaning a liquid or solid (the virus) suspended in a gas (like air) — only under very limited conditions, and that this transmission route is not driving the pandemic. But “limited” conditions does not mean “no” conditions, underlining the need for health care workers to have high levels of personal protection, especially when doing procedures such as intubation that have the greatest chance of creating coronavirus aerosols. “I think the answer will be, aerosolization occurs rarely but not never,” said microbiologist and physician Stanley Perlman of the University of Iowa. “You have to distinguish between what’s possible and what’s actually happening.”

 

Truth told, if I was in a high risk group (Like someone who has recently had lung surgery), I'd probably postpone cruising for a while.

[pmd98052]

6 minutes ago, NutsAboutGolf said:

Temp for two reason, catch the low hanging fruit as its the most common symptom if one is showing symptoms and also is it really a bad thing to not allow a pax to embark if they have a fever? 

Yes I agree that is what i also called out. Its just a little (to put it mildly) dangerous to rely on temp checks. There need to be antibody tests combined with the temp checks (and we better hope antibody tests get more reliable too!).

 

Eventually of course you will also require a vacination certificate (assuming a vaccine is ever found that is effective)

Edited June 3, 2020 by pmd98052

[graphicguy]

Personally, I don't think there will be masks involved.  The numbers have been holding steady throughout all of this.  

 

Through the end of May, .0057 of the U.S.A. population has had the COVID virus.  .00033 have died.  Out of all those who have died, 40% of them were residents of Nursing Homes.  .001 have recovered.

 

Those numbers would be drastically impacted if everyone on a cruise ship has their temp taken (80% of COVID patients had a fever of over 100.5ºF) and those with elevated temps not allowed to embark.  Further, any spread would be significantly impacted by strenuously enforcing the washing of hands in and out of dining and entertainment venues.

 

Further, the newly installed HEPA are filters would impact airborne contagions.  Even more, the thorough cleaning and fogging of public places would reduce any possible impact even more.

[njhorseman]

1 hour ago, pmd98052 said:

 

Everyone will have to wear a mask - pretty sure cruise lines aren't going to risk that. At least while walking around. Guessing they might well issue N95 masks to all passengers.

 

The part I don't get is the temp checks. Of course you need them but we also know people carry/spread this with zero temperature so its not a big safe guard.

The plan NCL has published makes no mention of requiring masks so we have no evidence as of now they will be required.

[hallux]

I'm curious if NCL, or any cruise line, is looking into using those antiviral polymer sprays.  There was one being talked about early on by the airlines that had effectiveness for extended periods of time, which would probably be much shorter on a cruise ship considering the traffic.

 

The other thing I think might be a good idea is to turn the elevators into a negative pressure cell (if they aren't already), similar to the isolation rooms in hospitals.  Strong exhaust fan pulling the air out (with a "fresh air" inlet so it's not a vacuum) along with airborne pathogens so a packed elevator doesn't become a transmission vector for the airborne virus.

[BirdTravels]

On 6/2/2020 at 3:09 PM, bmwman said:

Based on the fact that 30% is Breakeven according to Del Rio it might. Price and onboard services will be the issue.

 

Regards 

I think it was the RCCL CEO that said that he could run an Oasis class ship @ 30% and break even (2000ish passengers). But, cruise lines aren't in business to break even. If they are running a small number of ships, they have to run well above break even to cover the costs of the ships sitting in port. 

[BirdTravels]

On 6/2/2020 at 7:20 AM, d9704011 said:

A plan? Take a look at the FAQs.... a significant level of detail is missing and the average passenger will have no idea how these measures will impact their  cruise experience. Give them credit though, they have been first out of the gate with some communication to pax on what may happen going forward.

It is all marketing to make you feel comfortable to book again. 

[chengkp75]

23 minutes ago, hallux said:

I'm curious if NCL, or any cruise line, is looking into using those antiviral polymer sprays.  There was one being talked about early on by the airlines that had effectiveness for extended periods of time, which would probably be much shorter on a cruise ship considering the traffic.

 

The other thing I think might be a good idea is to turn the elevators into a negative pressure cell (if they aren't already), similar to the isolation rooms in hospitals.  Strong exhaust fan pulling the air out (with a "fresh air" inlet so it's not a vacuum) along with airborne pathogens so a packed elevator doesn't become a transmission vector for the airborne virus.

Actually, the one case study done of covid and spread in air conditioning showed that strong air currents (in that case the infected person sitting in close proximity to the AC vent) like you mention in an elevator would probably be worse than normal ventilation for those inside the elevator.  But, the elevators are at the same slight negative pressure as the passageways.

[littlelulu01]

It’s not just a marketing ploy to get us to book again.  We’ve learned a considerable amount from diamond princess, restaurant, factories, meat packaging plant, nursing home, and even carpool outbreaks. We’re making huge strides with environmental changes that reduce spread. 
 

As long as Covid-19 is around and no vaccine or effective treatment, further outbreaks on a cruise ship will kill the industry. Even if the cruise lines were able to pack out a ship with willing passengers and crew, there’s just no ports that can afford the repeat cost of handling outbreaks. Ports turn away ships with norovirus.  They’re not going to be ok letting a ship with covid positivities debark.
 

These new guidelines are a great start.  
 

I wear a mask, you wear a mask, 6 foot distance and proper infection control are working wonders but Americans as a whole are not willing to adhere to these guidelines. I’d doubt a cruise ship could even reach the 60% adherence level.  But they might be able to get mandatory  adherence for critical times such as getting on and off the ship, muster drills, some onboard activities....
 

I do think their crew are able to adhere to necessary guidelines. I don’t see an effective way to fully eliminate COVID from getting onboard but with proper environmental control it might not become an outbreak. If crew can have separate staterooms they could social distance. Less crew if less passengers.  Other high risk activities such as cleaning staterooms multiple times a day, working in various venues could easily be changed.   
 

Ships are able to contain norovirus outbreaks.  Had they failed, so would the industry.  The cruise lines will also learn to control spread of Covid-19. It’ll include some changes to our own behavior too.