Stock up 33% today

[Earthworm Jim]

On 11/11/2020 at 1:41 PM, JF - retired RRT said:

The scary thing (to me) is that the so-called 90% effective rate for the Pfizer vaccine is after 7 days!!!

What happens on the 8th day? The 30th day? After 6 months?

Hope they're not warp speeding too fast.

 

Yeah, I'm not sure what that means but it's worded oddly. My guess is it means they started collecting data on how many people got infected in the vaccine and control groups 7 days after they got the second vaccine dose and have been collecting it ever since. That's why they needed to wait until the third week of November to request an emergency authorization, since the FDA is requiring 2 months of data before they'll consider the request. So they are about at the 2 months of data mark.

 

Which as you say doesn't tell us anything about it's effectiveness in 6 months, or anything beyond 2 months really.

[drowelf]

14 hours ago, Earthworm Jim said:

 

Yeah, I'm not sure what that means but it's worded oddly. My guess is it means they started collecting data on how many people got infected in the vaccine and control groups 7 days after they got the second vaccine dose and have been collecting it ever since. That's why they needed to wait until the third week of November to request an emergency authorization, since the FDA is requiring 2 months of data before they'll consider the request. So they are about at the 2 months of data mark.

 

Which as you say doesn't tell us anything about it's effectiveness in 6 months, or anything beyond 2 months really.

The  how long the vaccine is good for is the real kicker on effectiveness. Stuff I've been reading on the Moderna vaccine is that its probably going to be yearly one like flu. Have not seen any data on Pfizer's as to whether its once and done or yearly too. I suppose only time will tell on that factor. While all this is very good news, its still going to be many months before the vaccine is distributed widely enough to allow the travel industry to start getting back to normal. Our next booked cruise is August 2021, with final payment in late May so be got 6+ months for things to progress before our next decision point. 

[Thrak]

2 hours ago, drowelf said:

The  how long the vaccine is good for is the real kicker on effectiveness. Stuff I've been reading on the Moderna vaccine is that its probably going to be yearly one like flu. Have not seen any data on Pfizer's as to whether its once and done or yearly too. I suppose only time will tell on that factor. While all this is very good news, its still going to be many months before the vaccine is distributed widely enough to allow the travel industry to start getting back to normal. Our next booked cruise is August 2021, with final payment in late May so be got 6+ months for things to progress before our next decision point. 

 

If it actually works and life can return to something more normal I have zero issue with a yearly vaccination. We get the flu vaccine every year as it is. Adding one more isn't a problem.

 

We only hold 200 shares of CCL. We bought the initial 100 at $37.05 and have recouped that initial expense via dividends and OBC. The second 100 shares were purchased for less money. I'm unsure if I will hang onto them or sell when the price gets a little higher. Since we do plan to continue cruising with Princess if that ever becomes practical again we will definitely keep 100 shares.

Edited November 17, 2020 by Thrak

[drowelf]

1 hour ago, Thrak said:

 

If it actually works and life can return to something more normal I have zero issue with a yearly vaccination. We get the flu vaccine every year as it is. Adding one more isn't a problem.

 

We only hold 200 shares of CCL. We bought the initial 100 at $37.05 and have recouped that initial expense via dividends and OBC. The second 100 shares were purchased for less money. I'm unsure if I will hang onto them or sell when the price gets a little higher. Since we do plan to continue cruising with Princess if that ever becomes practical again we will definitely keep 100 shares.

We too have no problem with a yearly vaccine, I was just opining on the fact we don't really know as yet. 

 

As for CCL stock, we've been in and out of CCL and RCL many times over the years. Locked in profits many times and waited for it to drop again before buying. Since you only need to hold the stock in the 6 months prior to the sailing it easy to manage the holdings, no worries on capital gains as we hold the stock in the DWs IRA-SEP account. We do that because she sometimes goes on girls cruises with her friends, but I doubt I'll ever cruise without her. 

Edited November 17, 2020 by drowelf

[travelhound]

18 hours ago, Thrak said:

 

If it actually works and life can return to something more normal I have zero issue with a yearly vaccination. We get the flu vaccine every year as it is. Adding one more isn't a problem.

 

We only hold 200 shares of CCL. We bought the initial 100 at $37.05 and have recouped that initial expense via dividends and OBC. The second 100 shares were purchased for less money. I'm unsure if I will hang onto them or sell when the price gets a little higher. Since we do plan to continue cruising with Princess if that ever becomes practical again we will definitely keep 100 shares.

CCL should hit $30 within the next year, after they start cruising and the vaccines are in mass distribution.

[ontheweb]

3 hours ago, travelhound said:

CCL should hit $30 within the next year, after they start cruising and the vaccines are in mass distribution.

And maybe someday the dividend will even return. We can hope.

[Daniel A]

I bought my first hundred shares in October 2018 when the stock was in the high 50's.  After the drop of the stock price, I've bought a few times at pretty low points.  I'm waiting on $32, that's when I'll break even for all my CCL shares.

[travelhound]

7 hours ago, ontheweb said:

And maybe someday the dividend will even return. We can hope.

Yup, as things improve next year, I am sure it's possible.

[neverbeenhere]

As for a dividend next year... I don’t think so. Carnival Corp is likely to be down $15 billion before they start making net income. 

[Thrak]

I have gotten enough dividends to hold me for now. One day I think they may return but not soon. I will be happy if the company survives and cruising returns in a somewhat "normal" form. Hopefully that will happen before we are no longer able to take part.

[ontheweb]

1 hour ago, neverbeenhere said:

As for a dividend next year... I don’t think so. Carnival Corp is likely to be down $15 billion before they start making net income. 

I posted someday, not next year. I agree that is too optimistic.

[Earthworm Jim]

On 11/18/2020 at 8:55 AM, travelhound said:

CCL should hit $30 within the next year, after they start cruising and the vaccines are in mass distribution.

 

Remember they've issued new stock during this crisis thus diluting it's value somewhat.

 

(At least that's what I'd assume, but I'm not really a stocks guy)

[neverbeenhere]

Interesting:

 

For the first time since the pandemic, cruise operator Carnival Corp. is selling debt without pledging its ships as collateral, testing the depths of a market rally that has seen bond buyers betting big on hard-hit industries now that a Covid vaccine is in sight.

[travelhound]

9 hours ago, Earthworm Jim said:

 

Remember they've issued new stock during this crisis thus diluting it's value somewhat.

 

(At least that's what I'd assume, but I'm not really a stocks guy)

Yup, it will slow the grow of the stock, but ironically that may help in the long run, due to the additional liquidity that Carnival will have to resume operations.

[neverbeenhere]

39 minutes ago, travelhound said:

Yup, it will slow the grow of the stock, but ironically that may help in the long run, due to the additional liquidity that Carnival will have to resume operations.

What additional liquidity will Carnival Corporation receive in the future because of the additional shares issued and sold? 
 

I  am not aware that the corporation authorized a number of shares that they didn’t sell. 

[travelhound]

10 minutes ago, neverbeenhere said:

What additional liquidity will Carnival Corporation receive in the future because of the additional shares issued and sold? 
 

I  am not aware that the corporation authorized a number of shares that they didn’t sell. 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/11/10/carnival-files-to-sell-another-15-billion-worth-of/

[neverbeenhere]

Well that puts them well over a billion shares running around. 

[travelhound]

On 11/19/2020 at 9:29 PM, neverbeenhere said:

Well that puts them well over a billion shares running around. 

Jim Cramer thinks it's a good time to buy the stocks that benefit from the vaccines, like CCL.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/23/cramer-unveils-list-of-return-to-normalcy-stocks-on-vaccine-optimism.html

[TTEllis]

35 minutes ago, travelhound said:

Jim Cramer thinks it's a good time to buy the stocks that benefit from the vaccines, like CCL.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/23/cramer-unveils-list-of-return-to-normalcy-stocks-on-vaccine-optimism.html

Jim Cramer😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣 I feel so much better!! Jim Cramer I thought I'd heard it all!!

Thanks travelhound!!

[TTEllis]

On 11/9/2020 at 9:53 AM, oskidunker said:

18.37. 

Thank you very much for the 18.37 post. We'll all be on a ship before we know it.🙄

[travelhound]

39 minutes ago, TTEllis said:

Jim Cramer😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣 I feel so much better!! Jim Cramer I thought I'd heard it all!!

Thanks travelhound!!

I am not a big fan of Jim Cramer either, but on this pick, I think he's correct.  CCL is a binary bet on a successful vaccine distribution.

[TTEllis]

14 minutes ago, travelhound said:

I am not a big fan of Jim Cramer either, but on this pick, I think he's correct.  CCL is a binary bet on a successful vaccine distribution.

Jim Cramer is a low life garbage dump always has been always will be. You should have never brought his name up in this forum. Not that I had ever planned to, now I know to NEVER buy CCL stock. I don't do the stock market, it's why I get to continue to do things like this. 

See ya down under when they'll take us. Have a nice evening. 

 

[TTEllis]

On 11/15/2020 at 3:31 PM, framer said:

I've been paying it when it goes below 13.00 I put a sell 15.00 on Friday.  I was shocked when it sold Monday at opening price😁.

 

I can now buy my row boat...

 

framer

That's hilarious I love that!! Great post!!

[framer]

CCL is a trade only stock for the foreseeable future, IMHO.  Dividend is gone for years and when it does return it will be a fraction of what it was.  There are too many better choices for long term investments than CCL.  

 

framer

 

 

[travelhound]

7 hours ago, framer said:

CCL is a trade only stock for the foreseeable future, IMHO.  Dividend is gone for years and when it does return it will be a fraction of what it was.  There are too many better choices for long term investments than CCL.  

 

framer

 

 

I agree, it's a trade based on the vaccine distribution.  That said, I wouldn't recommend day trading the stock.