CDC Raises Cruise Travel Risk to Level 4 Very High

[ProgRockCruiser]

9 hours ago, jimbo5544 said:

Did not know we had taken sides....the virus will end when it ends.  Name one thing that changed the course of it. 

We have no idea what could have been different - that's the problem with the (apparent) linear and non-bifurcating progression of time - we don't get to do a Monte Carlo simulation with reality to see how things could have been different in different scenarios.

 

It is likely, from what I gather, that the early lockdowns did prevent a massive surge of cases in the US back in the April timeframe.  And that was the mantra, it was about "flattening the curve" (squishing the cases out to the future), preventing a catastrophic collapse of the health industry until a vaccine was developed or it died out naturally.

 

Much like the Y2K bug, the reason there were no disasters was because so much effort went into re-writing code - the lack of bad things happening is a sign that it worked.  

 

And as has been stated so many times before, the CDC can only make recommendations for most industries.  It is really only the cruise industry, which is an optional, leisure-oriented activity, upon which it can wield any influence.

 

The apparently waffling over recommendations from the CDC is combination of learning what works (that's how science works), trying to figure out what works best for the public (combo of science and realistic expectations), and undue influence from political elements (usually ignoring the science).  I don't envy the leadership within the CDC.

 

Is anyone here suggesting that the cruise lines should have been allowed to continue cruising all summer long?  Because that is one thing that changed the course of it.  Can you imagine the absolute mayhem that would have ensued with cruise ships vectoring COVID-19 all over the place, and getting turned away at every port?

[UPNYGuy]

15 hours ago, Stick93 said:

This statement seems like you are preparing forever - 

It isn’t about preparing forever, it is about exercising common sense. I likely will not cruise until 2022 at the minimum (and with a vaccine). I work with the public, and tell people every day how to wear a mask properly. The last thing I want to do is spend a week (or longer) on a ship with a ton of people that have no idea that a mask has to go over the mouth AND nose, and not be used a a chin guard. 

 

Plus, i also just signed for an all-inclusive timeshare at 2 weeks per year. So even when (if) we set foot on a ship again, it will be less than when we used to go.

[jimbo5544]

10 hours ago, ProgRockCruiser said:

 

It is likely, from what I gather, that the early lockdowns did prevent a massive surge of cases in the US back in the April timeframe.  And that was the mantra, it was about "flattening the curve" (squishing the cases out to the future), preventing a catastrophic collapse of the health industry until a vaccine was developed or it died out naturally.

 

 

The apparently waffling over recommendations from the CDC is combination of learning what works (that's how science works), trying to figure out what works best for the public (combo of science and realistic expectations), and undue influence from political elements (usually ignoring the science).  I don't envy the leadership within the CDC.

 

 

Did they prevent new cases or delay new cases?  Show me any data that supports prevent.  Flattening the curve, worked, at a huge cost.  Did it save lives, or delay deaths?  The virus will end when it ends.  
 

As for the cdc, sounds like you are guessing.  When they change their mind in the SAME DAY, is not science working.  Have they learned?  Are they good predictors?  Even more important, how did their expertise prevent a catastrophic collapse of the health industry.  To do that, we would have not gotten there in the first place.  
They were put in place for one thing, And they failed....miserably.  Horrifically .  Lastly,  what leadership?  Redfield has stumbled more times than a drunk after pay day.  Leadership is getting the job done, not having people correct him after press conferences.  That is not leadership, that was buffoonery.   
 

I certainly do not feel sorry for them.  During tough times, leaders lead by example and calmness.  There was none of that from them.

Edited November 23, 2020 by jimbo5544

[hurricane0226]

Agree with you 100 percent Jimbo

[SCDreamWeaver]

Agree with you 100% Jimbo

[Ellaleah]

I booked the Celebration for 12/22.  I made sure I booked refundable. I need something to look forward to, but I am amazed how many would gamble with their lives before being vaccinated.  5 members of my family had Covid.  The 3 children were relatively unscathed, but the parents in their  40’s, not so much.  They were both physically fit and healthy. If you have seen this disease, up close and personal, I do not believe that you would  be so eager to get on a ship unvaccinated.

[jimbo5544]

Just now, fyree39 said:

I'm very happy to see all the complainers. lol Enjoy the next several years.

It’s ok, we understand.  I really would not call you a complainer.

[BlerkOne]

5 hours ago, jimbo5544 said:

Did they prevent new cases or delay new cases?  Show me any data that supports prevent.  Flattening the curve, worked, at a huge cost.  Did it save lives, or delay deaths?  The virus will end when it ends.  
 

As for the cdc, sounds like you are guessing.  When they change their mind in the SAME DAY, is not science working.  Have they learned?  Are they good predictors?  Even more important, how did their expertise prevent a catastrophic collapse of the health industry.  To do that, we would have not gotten there in the first place.  
They were put in place for one thing, And they failed....miserably.  Horrifically .  Lastly,  what leadership?  Redfield has stumbled more times than a drunk after pay day.  Leadership is getting the job done, not having people correct him after press conferences.  That is not leadership, that was buffoonery.   
 

I certainly do not feel sorry for them.  During tough times, leaders lead by example and calmness.  There was none of that from them.

 

One only has to look at New Zealand (a member of W.H.O.) and their success where the US has failed time and again. New Zealand used science instead of lockdowns, and didn't suffer from a leadership vacuum. They have offered to help the US and I hope President Biden listens.

[ukbecky]

7 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

 

One only has to look at New Zealand (a member of W.H.O.) and their success where the US has failed time and again. New Zealand used science instead of lockdowns, and didn't suffer from a leadership vacuum. They have offered to help the US and I hope President Biden listens.

 

New Zealand is surrounded by water. The United States shares (porous) borders with 2 countries.

New Zealand is the size of Colorado.

New Zealand has just under 5 million people. The US? Nearly 330 million people.

 

Facts.

 

Plop New Zealand anywhere else in the world, surround it with large numbers of people from other countries, and watch the same exact problems develop(as it has everywhere that isn't an island nation). Oh, and multiply the population by nearly 70.

 

This virus doesn't know who the leadership is, or who the party in power is.

Edited November 24, 2020 by ukbecky

[jimbo5544]

1 hour ago, ukbecky said:

 

New Zealand is surrounded by water. The United States shares (porous) borders with 2 countries.

New Zealand is the size of Colorado.

New Zealand has just under 5 million people. The US? Nearly 330 million people.

 

Facts.

 

Plop New Zealand anywhere else in the world, surround it with large numbers of people from other countries, and watch the same exact problems develop(as it has everywhere that isn't an island nation). Oh, and multiply the population by nearly 70.

 

This virus doesn't know who the leadership is, or who the party in power is.

Bingo

[evandbob]

What we can learn from NZ is that the public buy in to the virus response is almost as important as the mitigation decisions.  The Kiwis had wide compliance with steps for COVID mitigation, while we here in the US have had open rebellion, mediocre compliance and some serious attempts at virus prevention, all at the same time and varying by geography and political viewpoints.

 

The CDC has changed positions several times, mostly based on political pressures.  And most Americans are not well versed in risk assessment -  we generally believe anecdotes instead of proofs. 

 

One only has to consider how many posters would volunteer to go on a test cruise or are eager to book the 1st possible cruise when (if) resumptions occur, to note that immediate gratification of a travel desire beats out a sense of self preservation.

[kdr69]

We had 1584 new cases in Alberta yesterday and the media were quick to point out how it was just as many as Ontario and Quebec combined and the "soaring" numbers werent good.  They conveniently must have missed the fact that Alberta is also a quarter of the size of those two provinces and our population isnt as spread out as them as well.  Now we are waiting to hear about more new measures today being released.  Personally given the number of cases on land each day I would take the chance of cruising over going to the Gas Station or Grocery Store.  Either way you roll the dice.

[Calnev1]

3 minutes ago, kdr69 said:

We had 1584 new cases in Alberta yesterday and the media were quick to point out how it was just as many as Ontario and Quebec combined and the "soaring" numbers werent good.  They conveniently must have missed the fact that Alberta is also a quarter of the size of those two provinces and our population isnt as spread out as them as well.  Now we are waiting to hear about more new measures today being released.  Personally given the number of cases on land each day I would take the chance of cruising over going to the Gas Station or Grocery Store.  Either way you roll the dice.

So in Alberta you have similar numbers of cases as to two other provinces, but only a quarter the population, and somehow that is not "soaring" compared to the other two provinces?  I don't follow the math.

[jimbo5544]

12 minutes ago, kdr69 said:

We had 1584 new cases in Alberta yesterday and the media were quick to point out how it was just as many as Ontario and Quebec combined and the "soaring" numbers werent good.  They conveniently must have missed the fact that Alberta is also a quarter of the size of those two provinces and our population isnt as spread out as them as well.  Now we are waiting to hear about more new measures today being released.  Personally given the number of cases on land each day I would take the chance of cruising over going to the Gas Station or Grocery Store.  Either way you roll the dice.

Politicians have no answers here....they regularly show their limitations.

[kdr69]

4 minutes ago, evandbob said:

One only has to consider how many posters would volunteer to go on a test cruise or are eager to book the 1st possible cruise when (if) resumptions occur, to note that immediate gratification of a travel desire beats out a sense of self preservation.

Its not immediate gratification of a travel desire its a desire to return to life.  This isnt going away and hiding under a desk wont help. 

[jimbo5544]

2 minutes ago, kdr69 said:

Its not immediate gratification of a travel desire its a desire to return to life.  This isnt going away and hiding under a desk wont help. 

double bingo!

[kdr69]

Well i guess you could say 1584 is soaring i mean its all relative to the viewpoint you have right?  I mean l would consider the numbers in the US Soaring if i didn't look at any other numbers. We did have 1584 new cases identified which translated into 921 new active cases as 663 people recovered.  The focus is on the number of new cases not on the number of people recovering because that's news. As of yesterday of the 328 people in hospital in Alberta 62 were in the ICU.  At the end of the day people see the numbers that makes them feel better about things right?

[jimbo5544]

4 minutes ago, kdr69 said:

Well i guess you could say 1584 is soaring i mean its all relative to the viewpoint you have right?  I mean l would consider the numbers in the US Soaring if i didn't look at any other numbers. We did have 1584 new cases identified which translated into 921 new active cases as 663 people recovered.  The focus is on the number of new cases not on the number of people recovering because that's news. As of yesterday of the 328 people in hospital in Alberta 62 were in the ICU.  At the end of the day people see the numbers that makes them feel better about things right?

Yes they do.  Self rationalization seems to be the new in fad.

[Calnev1]

7 minutes ago, kdr69 said:

Well i guess you could say 1584 is soaring i mean its all relative to the viewpoint you have right?  I mean l would consider the numbers in the US Soaring if i didn't look at any other numbers. We did have 1584 new cases identified which translated into 921 new active cases as 663 people recovered.  The focus is on the number of new cases not on the number of people recovering because that's news. As of yesterday of the 328 people in hospital in Alberta 62 were in the ICU.  At the end of the day people see the numbers that makes them feel better about things right?

OK,  I understand.  It was the reference to the other provinces, and the relative numbers, that was confusing to me.

 

[BlerkOne]

1 hour ago, kdr69 said:

Well i guess you could say 1584 is soaring i mean its all relative to the viewpoint you have right?  I mean l would consider the numbers in the US Soaring if i didn't look at any other numbers. We did have 1584 new cases identified which translated into 921 new active cases as 663 people recovered.  The focus is on the number of new cases not on the number of people recovering because that's news. As of yesterday of the 328 people in hospital in Alberta 62 were in the ICU.  At the end of the day people see the numbers that makes them feel better about things right?

All Numbers Matter!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

When they get to ZERO, that will be news, indeed!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[tinleypark andy]

On 11/23/2020 at 9:55 AM, UPNYGuy said:

 

 

Plus, i also just signed for an all-inclusive timeshare at 2 weeks per year. So even when (if) we set foot on a ship again, it will be less than when we used to go.

For the prices they will probably be charging, all of us will be on a cruise ship less.

[BlerkOne]

3 hours ago, evandbob said:

What we can learn from NZ is that the public buy in to the virus response is almost as important as the mitigation decisions.  The Kiwis had wide compliance with steps for COVID mitigation, while we here in the US have had open rebellion, mediocre compliance and some serious attempts at virus prevention, all at the same time and varying by geography and political viewpoints.

 

The CDC has changed positions several times, mostly based on political pressures.  And most Americans are not well versed in risk assessment -  we generally believe anecdotes instead of proofs. 

 

One only has to consider how many posters would volunteer to go on a test cruise or are eager to book the 1st possible cruise when (if) resumptions occur, to note that immediate gratification of a travel desire beats out a sense of self preservation.

Bingo. Game Set Match.

 

[kdr69]

1 hour ago, BlerkOne said:

When they get to ZERO, that will be news, indeed!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I agree but short of a cure i dont see it happening for a very long time.  Couldnt do it for the Common cold or the Flu dont see it happening here.

[BlerkOne]

35 minutes ago, kdr69 said:

I agree but short of a cure i dont see it happening for a very long time.  Couldnt do it for the Common cold or the Flu dont see it happening here.

True, but it doesn't mean it isn't the goal.

 

All the other numbers can be misinterpreted any way a denier wants to.

[bitemyfly]

1 hour ago, BlerkOne said:

The virus can kill millions or the rate of spread can be slowed to where millions that didn't need to die are spared. Humans aren't willing to let millions die needlessly.

And to that end , where humans are not willing to let millions die , a vaccine is here , treatments are here in a little over 7 months . The world had witnessed many different attempts many countries attacking it in different ways  from lockdowns like Italy where you can’t go 135 past your house to nothing at all...but at the end of the day it will be a vaccine and effective treatment.