Unusual movements

[tring]

5 minutes ago, joeecco said:

I meant to tie her alongside in Liverpool for a longer duration like Azura has in Newcastle.

 

I think both ships are safe from sale. Arcadia has a good life left and Aurora, if they planned to remove 1 ship before Gala2 arrives then they may remove her on Nov 12 next year when her current itinerary’s are finished (if so I’d be on the last sailing..) because although I agree it doesn’t seem logical to lay a ship up when there’s not much life left, in this case it is as Aurora has a worldie booked for next year and I’m sure that is financially worth keeping her for. Plus it would be a farewell worldie which would be nice for the marketing team. 

 

Only one space at the Liverpool cruise pier, so not somewhere that would be used for lay up.  Fred will be sailing out of Liverpool once cruises start and also they sometimes have RN ships turning up for a few days, so may even be in use before that.

 

What happens with cruising remains to be seen, but as it is not thought the vaccine can be distributed world wide until 2022/2023 at least, I am not convinced any worldwide cruising will take place for a long time.  Also think most people will be wary of going off so far on a ship, unless the world seems a lot more stable, regards changed rules on borders etc.  Keeping hold of the ships would mean that P&O keeps hold of monies paid to date though and a fee loan beats the ones they have obtained at something like a 10% interest rate.  Depends how the sums work out, since it will be the financial situation that will win out.

[joeecco]

2 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

It has been confirmed this morning that Aurora's trip to Portsmouth was to test the berthing facilities there. Aurora is the largest cruise ship to arrive at Portsmouth International Port.

 

For those looking on AIS, it still has today's Weymouth arrival scheduled. This has not been changed in at least 24 hours. Same goes for Arcadia.

What reasons are they resting berthing facilities there for do you think? Seems too close to Southampton to be a British isle stop and would be odd to originate cruises there

[Captain_Morgan]

2 minutes ago, joeecco said:

What reasons are they resting berthing facilities there for do you think? Seems too close to Southampton to be a British isle stop and would be odd to originate cruises there

 

Likely either a short/long term layup option if the price is right, or it could be an alternate embarkation port if Southampton becomes too crowded on resumption of service.  These of course are pure speculation, but when you consider how long 3 ships were sitting in Dover last year it should come as no surprise that an alternate port on the South coast would be explored as an option.

[molecrochip]

So all in all, not overly exciting movements. Maybe I'm a little jumpy but I was given the tip that there was a chance of a development regarding a UK based small ship. That ship "most likely" being Arcadia.

[joeecco]

Just now, Captain_Morgan said:

 

Likely either a short/long term layup option if the price is right, or it could be an alternate embarkation port if Southampton becomes too crowded on resumption of service.  These of course are pure speculation, but when you consider how long 3 ships were sitting in Dover last year it should come as no surprise that an alternate port on the South coast would be explored as an option.

Yeah I agree. I just thought if they were going to lay her up long term that they would use Dover again. Unless they think Portsmouth is easier for ship visits etc for trails

[joeecco]

1 minute ago, molecrochip said:

So all in all, not overly exciting movements. Maybe I'm a little jumpy but I was given the tip that there was a chance of a development regarding a UK based small ship. That ship "most likely" being Arcadia.

I wish they’d just make announcements. The phrase ‘dither and delay’ springs to mind again 😂

[Captain_Morgan]

Just now, joeecco said:

Yeah I agree. I just thought if they were going to lay her up long term that they would use Dover again. Unless they think Portsmouth is easier for ship visits etc for trails

 

I believe one of the big issues with Dover is the fact it has very large tidal ranges with not a particularly deep port and the prevailing wind is always North/Northeast which means its onto the side of the berth so if the wind gets nasty there's no protection other than to leave port, which defeats the purpose of a lay up unless its to offload waste water.

[joeecco]

Just now, Captain_Morgan said:

 

I believe one of the big issues with Dover is the fact it has very large tidal ranges with not a particularly deep port and the prevailing wind is always North/Northeast which means its onto the side of the berth so if the wind gets nasty there's no protection other than to leave port, which defeats the purpose of a lay up unless its to offload waste water.

That’s interesting to learn, thank you. Makes complete sense. Portsmouth is certainly more sheltered I suspect. 

[Dermotsgirl]

1 minute ago, tring said:

 

Only one space at the Liverpool cruise pier, so not somewhere that would be used for lay up.  Fred will be sailing out of Liverpool once cruises start and also they sometimes have RN ships turning up for a few days, so may even be in use before that.

 

What happens with cruising remains to be seen, but as it is not thought the vaccine can be distributed world wide until 2022/2023 at least, I am not convinced any worldwide cruising will take place for a long time.  Also think most people will be wary of going off so far on a ship, unless the world seems a lot more stable, regards changed rules on borders etc.  Keeping hold of the ships would mean that P&O keeps hold of monies paid to date though and a fee loan beats the ones they have obtained at something like a 10% interest rate.  Depends how the sums work out, since it will be the financial situation that will win out.

I was booked on the Jan 2022 Arcadia 55 night cruise to the Amazon, but I’ve moved it to a Baltic cruise on Arcadia in the following August - for the reasons you describe.  Brazil has been hammered by the virus and I’m just not interested in travelling so far from home for such a long period time when the world has changed so much.

 

i think most people have now realised that cruising isn’t just going to click back into place on the currently booked schedules. I have no doubt that the Amazon cruise will be cancelled, as it’s simply not feasible. I could have waited for the cancellation and refund, but felt it was better for my peace of mind to move the cruise, in order to stop me constantly waiting and wondering. It’s out of my head space, for the time being, at least! 

[Adammara]

8 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

So all in all, not overly exciting movements. Maybe I'm a little jumpy but I was given the tip that there was a chance of a development regarding a UK based small ship. That ship "most likely" being Arcadia.

Oh dear, I remember the days when Arcadia was introduced it was viewed as a 'big' ship!  Love that class of ship, we enjoyed QE and QV too!

[tring]

Portsmouth has been used as a cruise port, (including turn-arounds) for quite a number of years, but they have recently built a new terminal, so bigger ships can be accommodated.  They have had one of the new Saga ones there.  May be just trying it out to help the port, rather than any thought of P&O using the base, though could be quite useful for other Carnival Brands since a one day stop there is a lot locally of interest.  The US folk in particular will be keen to see the HIstoric Dockyards, Mary Rose etc. Also Old Portsmouth, shopping outlet centre and a nice sea front at Southsea.

 

The cruise terminal is up by the ferry terminal, but only about a 3 mile bus route on good roads, to the dockyards. 

[majortom10]

32 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

So all in all, not overly exciting movements. Maybe I'm a little jumpy but I was given the tip that there was a chance of a development regarding a UK based small ship. That ship "most likely" being Arcadia.

That does make you wonder then that considering they have cancelled her dry dock is she going to be, or already, sold.

[joeecco]

8 minutes ago, majortom10 said:

That does make you wonder then that considering they have cancelled her dry dock is she going to be, or already, sold.

How do you know they have cancelled the dry dock? Have I missed something...

 

I presumed it was postponed like Azura’s as the ship yard is in lockdown. 

[terrierjohn]

A general glass almost empty mood seems to be prevailing on here.  However if some of the most pessimistic are correct, then I fear that none of the current cruise lines will survive, at least not in their current form.

I wonder what info Moley is getting about Carnivals financial state and how long it could survive before its funding runs out and it's no longer able to find new funds?

[molecrochip]

2 minutes ago, joeecco said:

How do you know they have cancelled the dry dock? Have I missed something...

 

I presumed it was postponed like Azura’s as the ship yard is in lockdown. 

Arcadia was originally due to dry dock around November 2021. It was brought forward so the dry dock happened during the pause.

 

I was advised before Christmas that she was heading for dry dock in February and that Azura was heading for dry dock in January. Azura's was cancelled due to Covid which is why she is now alongside in Newcastle.

 

I suspect that Arcadia's has also been cancelled due to Covid but if they have decided to sell her that would also make sense.

[molecrochip]

4 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

A general glass almost empty mood seems to be prevailing on here.  However if some of the most pessimistic are correct, then I fear that none of the current cruise lines will survive, at least not in their current form.

I wonder what info Moley is getting about Carnivals financial state and how long it could survive before its funding runs out and it's no longer able to find new funds?

Carnival could survive this year (to end of November 2021) with no income at all. They will still have significant cash after that but perhaps not enough to survive through November 2022 with no fee income.

 

Now, they are still receiving fee income through cruise bookings so the crunch point pushes out further. Additionally, if they have not restarted by December, I suspect that further ship sales will be on the horizon.

[joeecco]

9 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

Arcadia was originally due to dry dock around November 2021. It was brought forward so the dry dock happened during the pause.

 

I was advised before Christmas that she was heading for dry dock in February and that Azura was heading for dry dock in January. Azura's was cancelled due to Covid which is why she is now alongside in Newcastle.

 

I suspect that Arcadia's has also been cancelled due to Covid but if they have decided to sell her that would also make sense.

Makes sense with bringing Arcadia forward. 
 

what’s the latest rumours with Azura dry dock and fly cruises? 

[molecrochip]

I will say that my information about their financials is only what is broadly in the public domain. Carnival are a listed company so they are very careful about what is available.

[molecrochip]

2 minutes ago, joeecco said:

Makes sense with bringing Arcadia forward. 
 

what’s the latest rumours with Azura dry dock and fly cruises? 

There is no news that I can currently give you.

 

I was expecting a restart announcement in week 2 of January which would have been focused around May . This was based on the Autumn lockdown having done its job and before the new variants had been discovered. Obviously, it was not appropriate to announce such a restart as it was likely that it would have to be scrapped.

 

I think its now getting late to restart in late April and I expect that we will now get a further one month deferment. Obviously, moving the payment deadline to 30 days means that its not necessary to make an announcement until later. But there will come a point when its too later to get the ships back into service and then an announcement will be made.

 

Take the example of the Amazon cruise later in the year. It may not be possible but do you cancel it, or wait and see if you can run it with minimal changes.

[Beckett]

3 hours ago, kalos said:

 

Your so modest Jane , I bet you have taught a few the Movicol Trott in your time 

Not taught but I've cleared up a few in my time Kalos! J.x

[molecrochip]

A little more information. It is confirmed as berthing trials for 'mutual benefit'. It proves the port can handle the ship but equally gives P&O another option for the future - especially as berth 106 in Southampton is currently closed.

[Port out]

15 hours ago, molecrochip said:

As you know, I'm keeping an eye on our little fleet of ships and a couple of unusual movements occurring.

 

One for the locals this. Aurora will be calling at Portsmouth International Port tomorrow from about 0930 to 1600. This is a curious movement.

Arcadia, is currently not scheduled to return to Southampton following her call tomorrow. This is a concerning movement. I know where she is apparently heading on departure from Southampton but have no confirmed if anything has changed since last week. Update as soon as I can.

 

Britannia has had a late call introduced for Saturday and is unusually calling a berth 38/39. I'm thinking this is a first for Britannia who has usually always called at Berth 46 or 106 as she is 330m long and the berth is only 360m.

Britannia has often berthed at 38/39 during this pandemic 

[tring]

1 hour ago, molecrochip said:

There is no news that I can currently give you.

 

I was expecting a restart announcement in week 2 of January which would have been focused around May . This was based on the Autumn lockdown having done its job and before the new variants had been discovered. Obviously, it was not appropriate to announce such a restart as it was likely that it would have to be scrapped.

 

I think its now getting late to restart in late April and I expect that we will now get a further one month deferment. Obviously, moving the payment deadline to 30 days means that its not necessary to make an announcement until later. But there will come a point when its too later to get the ships back into service and then an announcement will be made.

 

Take the example of the Amazon cruise later in the year. It may not be possible but do you cancel it, or wait and see if you can run it with minimal changes.

 

You had said a few weeks ago that the Aurora Canada USA cruise for this September had been taken off sale but not cancelled, while the US decided if it could go ahead, which is seeming less likely as time goes on.  Can I ask if this has now been cancelled?

 

I can see the Amazon is not the place to be in a pandemic, sadly.  Our first cruise spent a full two weeks up the Amazon (MInerva II) and was an amazing experience.

[zap99]

3 hours ago, tring said:

Portsmouth has been used as a cruise port, (including turn-arounds) for quite a number of years, but they have recently built a new terminal, so bigger ships can be accommodated.  They have had one of the new Saga ones there.  May be just trying it out to help the port, rather than any thought of P&O using the base, though could be quite useful for other Carnival Brands since a one day stop there is a lot locally of interest.  The US folk in particular will be keen to see the HIstoric Dockyards, Mary Rose etc. Also Old Portsmouth, shopping outlet centre and a nice sea front at Southsea.

 

The cruise terminal is up by the ferry terminal, but only about a 3 mile bus route on good roads, to the dockyards. 

I'm sure if a cruise ship visited Portsmouth, an enterprising local boat company would do a shuttle to Gunwharf quay and the historic dockyard.

[tring]

8 minutes ago, zap99 said:

I'm sure if a cruise ship visited Portsmouth, an enterprising local boat company would do a shuttle to Gunwharf quay and the historic dockyard.

 

No need, looking at the map it is not even as much as 3 miles as I thought (more like one or two) and buses are very frequent, so very easy by bus.

 

Now a boat trip in the harbour to get a closer view of the naval ships - that may be in is a possibility as long as it does not interrupt other harbour movements of which there are many.  Some years back my FIL took DH and our our son out in his fishing boat to get a closer look at The Royal Yacht, which was in port, and they said it was so shiny, it was like a mirror.

Edited February 4, 2021 by tring