Financial issues for cruise industry

[4774Papa]

Read an article this morning about NCL and how they blew million on planning to cruise early this year.  

 

Also, another article about Celebrity indicated that X will require vaccine and negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding.

[Baron Barracuda]

NCL reported this morning and their commentary was somewhat less upbeat than Fain's, especially as regards discussions with CDC.  

 

From their press release:

 

The Company continues to work through the requirements of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (“CDC”) after the issuance of the Framework for Conditional Sailing Order (the “Conditional Order”) which permits cruise ship passenger operations in U.S. waters under certain conditions. However, significant uncertainties remain regarding specific requirements of the Conditional Order including pending technical instructions from the CDC

[Orator]

3 hours ago, 4774Papa said:

 

 

Also, another article about Celebrity indicated that X will require vaccine and negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding.

Crystal has announced this as their policy. They require proof of vaccination and a negative test no more than 3 days from boarding. Bet Celebrity follows the same protocol.

I would suggest that they keep testing throughout the cruise so they can isolate those who test positive. Fain said that isolation is a high priority.

[marieps]

10 hours ago, 4774Papa said:

Thanks, we are excited about it.  However, it appears that the one issue with doing our safari in July is the COVID-19 testing prior to flying back to the USA via Europe.   Our safari starts in Nairobi and ends in Arusha, Tanzania.   Flying out of Kilimanjaro International Airport we must have a COVID-19, negative of course within 72 hours of departure.   KLM says that quick tests (4 hours) are available at the airport, so we could just plan for one extra day after our safari, however, Tanzania requires a PCR test that takes 72 hours for results (some say that results can take even more).  The tourist industry for safaris is trying to persuade the government to eliminate the PCR test and go with the quicker test, which is approved by the USA and European countries for travel.  We shall see how it works.

I just had a PCR test yesterday and had results in 15 minutes.  The AI we are flying to Saturday in Mexico is doing PCR for Canadians because it's required for them and doing antigen for USA.  Each is results in minutes.

[Germancruiser]

It is not just the cruise lines that are in dire straits- some more some less so. I think of all those supplieres- food, drinks, etc.etc. ! Over a year since their deliveries stopped. So many jobs in jeopardy.

I can´t wait to get my vaccine- but since Germany bungled big time in ordering enough vaccine - that my take a while longer. I am still to young and to healthy. Thank god! LOL.

[nocl]

3 hours ago, Germancruiser said:

It is not just the cruise lines that are in dire straits- some more some less so. I think of all those supplieres- food, drinks, etc.etc. ! Over a year since their deliveries stopped. So many jobs in jeopardy.

I can´t wait to get my vaccine- but since Germany bungled big time in ordering enough vaccine - that my take a while longer. I am still to young and to healthy. Thank god! LOL.

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/24364-11-million-of-cruise-ship-food-is-heading-to-auction.html

[sfaaa]

I guess Costco and Walmart will be bidding low and stocking up on the cheap.

[yorky]

12 hours ago, Orator said:

Crystal has announced this as their policy. They require proof of vaccination and a negative test no more than 3 days from boarding. Bet Celebrity follows the same protocol.

I would suggest that they keep testing throughout the cruise so they can isolate those who test positive. Fain said that isolation is a high priority.

The UK is now going down the line of some form of proof of inoculation which is a positive. Testing itself is not an issue if it’s lateral flow, we test twice a week now but I’m guessing they would be looking for a PCR result.

[CroozFanatic]

16 hours ago, 4774Papa said:

Read an article this morning about NCL and how they blew million on planning to cruise early this year.  

 

This.

 

Also, NCL cancelled May before Carnival or RCCL. I don't recall NCL being first to cancel previously.

 

Speculating...NCL may be on the conservative side with respect to the startup after getting burned for a false start.  

[docruth]

On 2/25/2021 at 3:37 PM, Orator said:

Crystal has announced this as their policy. They require proof of vaccination and a negative test no more than 3 days from boarding. Bet Celebrity follows the same protocol.

I would suggest that they keep testing throughout the cruise so they can isolate those who test positive. Fain said that isolation is a high priority.

 

This is concerning.

 

I wonder how this will affect their numbers going forward. Crystal and the other premium cruise lines are known for having mostly older clientele. The higher price point, beautiful accommodations, and premium amenities, make that no surprise to any seasoned cruisers. Their product has been stellar pre-covid.

 

The thing is, the folks at overwhelming risk for contraindications to the vaccine are exactly that older clientele, the single demographic that is Crystal’s mainstay. So if a proportion of older clients can’t safely take the vaccine, because they are immune-compromised, have severe allergies, take any immune modulation drug, or have other complicating conditions, they’ll probably see this as an end to cruise vacations as an option. 

 

Thinking on the risks, many potential passengers will have to decide no, even intelligent folks who are not anti-vaxers because they don’t have to cruise, there are so many other vacation options That’s a sobering thought for the future of high-end cruising.

Edited February 27, 2021 by docruth

[TeeRick]

Yes that is reality going forward.  

[JRG]

22 hours ago, docruth said:

The thing is, the folks at overwhelming risk for contraindications to the vaccine are exactly that older clientele, the single demographic that is Crystal’s mainstay. So if a proportion of older clients can’t safely take the vaccine, because they are immune-compromised, have severe allergies, take any immune modulation drug, or have other complicating conditions, they’ll probably see this as an end to cruise vacations as an option. 

 

Thinking on the risks, many potential passengers will have to decide no, even intelligent folks who are not anti-vaxers because they don’t have to cruise, there are so many other vacation options That’s a sobering thought for the future of high-end cruising.

 

I have given this some thought Doc because you are aBsolutely correct in assessing this challenge.

 

My thinking has to do with a longer term perspective that perhaps (and I say Perhaps) the CDC is really smarter than people think and they are concerned not only with Covid-19  BUT maybe Covid-2x (or some other contagion) that would have to be contained in the case of a FUTURE outbreak.

 

Covid-19 caught the cruiselines off-guard and that has exposed it soft underbelly, (in the proverbial petri-dish metaphor).    The CDC and Cruiselines know that the guidelines put forth will probably also have to deal with other types of containments,  not just COVID-19.   The cooperating ports are a big part of the equation as well.    

 

It's not the end of future high-end cruising,   it's just getting postponed.

 

[JRG]

On 2/24/2021 at 3:03 PM, Croooser said:

So far, the speculation seems to be that once they are permitted to sail again, that the cruise lines will be profitable and able to pay down this debt that has been generated. Whether that thinking holds will likely depend on the next several months as well as the longer term.

 

And it made sense for certain cruiselines to raise capital now versus later.      They can't recognize any revenue (except for cancellation fees) until they start sailing so it looks like revenues from 2020 sailings (if any) for 2 quarters will be miserable.

 

They are funding their operations from existing customer deposits and prospective future bookings and they are not able to full-fill delivery of their product because of the constraints.

 

 

[docruth]

48 minutes ago, JRG said:

I have given this some thought Doc because you are aBsolutely correct in assessing this challenge.

 

My thinking has to do with a longer term perspective that perhaps (and I say Perhaps) the CDC is really smarter than people think and they are concerned not only with Covid-19  BUT maybe Covid-2x (or some other contagion) that would have to be contained in the case of a FUTURE outbreak.

 

Covid-19 caught the cruiselines off-guard and that has exposed it soft underbelly, (in the proverbial petri-dish metaphor).    The CDC and Cruiselines know that the guidelines put forth will probably also have to deal with other types of containments,  not just COVID-19.   The cooperating ports are a big part of the equation as well.    

 

It's not the end of future high-end cruising,   it's just getting postponed.

 

 

JRG,

 

Thanks for your well thought-out post. We’re pretty much in agreement, with one exception. That exception being that the CDC, along the remainder of federal government, knows what their doing with this type of scenario.

 

I spent my entire career in public health, so I feel compelled to speak here.

 

Our Public Health Service, the Center for Disease Control (CDC), and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), among many other entities have been gutted by decades of politicization, chronic underfunding, and anti-regulation lobbying efforts. Their staffs are completely demoralized, by the “one step forward, three back”, to and fro that constantly shifts priorities with no consistent long term goals. 

 

If you’ve noticed, there are never younger high-power spokespersons for any of these entities, because they’ve all fled to big pharmaceutical companies. The oldest folks are biding their time to retirement, and the middle aged folks are taking early-outs, and as such, the brain-drain is enormous. Normal attrition can be a good thing, if it revitalizes an entity, that’s not what’s happening here. I’m not for bigger goverment, I’m for better government.

 

So, as I’ve previously posted, Covid-19 is not something we couldn’t imagine. The US has been gaming a global pandemic out for decades, and had built an extensive plan playbook to deal with its eventuality. As soon as it was time to implement the plan, we forgot about it, and instead launched a wholly inadequate response. 

 

In the end, we were only able to muster a feeble response, and so I have no reason to believe that future events will be handled any differently. The idea that the travel related companies will police themselves is laughable. Sad, but then again it’s JMHO.

 

Doc Ruth

Edited February 28, 2021 by docruth

[Oceangoer2]

33 minutes ago, docruth said:

 

JRG,

 

Thanks for your well thought-out post. We’re pretty much in agreement, with one exception. That exception being that the CDC, along the remainder of federal government, knows what their doing with this type of scenario.

 

I spent my entire career in public health, so I feel compelled to speak here.

 

Our Public Health Service, the Center for Disease Control (CDC), and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), among many other entities have been gutted by decades of politicization, chronic underfunding, and anti-regulation lobbying efforts. Their staffs are completely demoralized, by the “one step forward, three back”, to and fro that constantly shifts priorities with no consistent long term goals. 

 

If you’ve noticed, there are never younger high-power spokespersons for any of these entities, because they’ve all fled to big pharmaceutical companies. The oldest folks are biding their time to retirement, and the middle aged folks are taking early-outs, and as such, the brain-drain is enormous. Normal attrition can be a good thing, if it revitalizes an entity, that’s not what’s happening here. I’m not for bigger goverment, I’m for better government.

 

So, as I’ve previously posted, Covid-19 is not something we couldn’t imagine. The US has been gaming a global pandemic out for decades, and had built an extensive plan playbook to deal with its eventuality. As soon as it was time to implement the plan, we forgot about it, and instead launched a wholly inadequate response. 

 

In the end, we were only able to muster a feeble response, and so I have no reason to believe that future events will be handled any differently. The idea that the travel related companies will police themselves is laughable. Sad, but then again it’s JMHO.

 

Doc Ruth

I'm no expert OR  a Doc....or an American...but IMO, it's not just the US that has been gaming the 'system'...this is evident worldwide.  Now the gaming caught up and passed us.  Catch up is difficult;  however, the vaccines were developed in rapid time...it's up to all of us to follow the medical advice, for a time, so we can get ahead of this virus and maybe the next.  I THINK the cruise lines are willing to adhere to scientific direction...protecting themselves in the long run...and protecting us as a result.