Worrying Answers From CDC Director on Conditional Sailing Order

[boatseller]

2 hours ago, MichiganBound said:

....and it's precisely due to views like the above (and the behavior that ensues) that we can't have nice things right now....like cruises.  If people would have been more concerned about the well-being of the country and their fellow citizens (and therefore followed the guidelines/rules/mandates much more strictly) we would have already been back on the high seas out of US ports.  We could learn a whole lot from Asia/Australia/NZ.  They are largely living COVID-free right now and conducting pretty normal lives whilst most of North America and Europe continues to wade through on-going infections, hospitalizations, and death due to COVID.  Such a shame.  It didn't have to be this way.

Well, we have lots and lots of very nice things in Florida like open theme parks, open resorts, open restaurants, open beaches, open bars, unrestricted travel, no mask mandate, low unemployment, a budget surplus.

 

We would gladly be cruising right now if not for the complete and disgraceful incompetence at the CDCP.  They alone are why we're not cruising.  There is zero, none, zippo, nada scientific or rational justification for their costly inaction.  They're just dumb cronies more concerned with protecting their power.

 

FYI, Hong King Disneyland just reopened in February, our parks have been open since June.  Australia's 'success' came at tremendous ecomomic and social costs.  Their lives are hardly normal and it will take years to recover from the damage.  No, it did not have to be that way, Floridians know that.

[mianmike]

3 hours ago, MichiganBound said:

....and it's precisely due to views like the above (and the behavior that ensues) that we can't have nice things right now....like cruises.  If people would have been more concerned about the well-being of the country and their fellow citizens (and therefore followed the guidelines/rules/mandates much more strictly) we would have already been back on the high seas out of US ports.  We could learn a whole lot from Asia/Australia/NZ.  They are largely living COVID-free right now and conducting pretty normal lives whilst most of North America and Europe continues to wade through on-going infections, hospitalizations, and death due to COVID.  Such a shame.  It didn't have to be this way.

 

Besides our societal lack of empathy for those who have lost loved ones or are suffering from long-term covid I view this is an indictment of our education system.  You see so much closed-minded ignorance and anti-science from far too many people.  They can't comprehend exponential growth or the biology of virus mutations and how the subsequent variants can defeat vaccines or immunity.  If this pandemic has taught us anything is we need to refocus our attention to improving our schools.     

[AtlantaAlly]

For those thinking about the excess mortality stuff: here’s a good datavis of it- with their sources listed. 
 

https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938

[BoozinCroozin]

17 hours ago, onlyslightlymad said:

I did a quick google.  I think you are right - death per 1000 people in the population.  The problem with that is that your 0.361 doesn't work.  If you take that 361K as deaths per 1000 of population in the USA then I think that's about 0.0096,  I'm not saying you're necessarily right or wrong in your assumptions, just that you are taking the wrong tack with your calculations.

I redid the math and it solidifies the point even more that Covid has had absolutely no effect on the US death rate in 2020. After you pointed out the original data numbers, I recalculated.

 

2020 US Population: 331,000,000

2020 US Deaths: 331,000,000 x 0.00888 (death rate as a percentage) = 2,939,280

2020 US Deaths (by Covid): 361,000

2020 US Deaths without Covid: (2,939,280 - 361,000) / 331,000,000 = 0.78% or 7.8 based per 1,000 people.

 

The total number of deaths for 2020 are in line since 2014. Nowhere in since 1950 (where the chart begins) has there ever been a 12.5% drop in the death rate in the US from the previous year. There has never been a death rate under 8.0/1,000 people in 70 years. The only conclusion is Covid has had no impact on the death rate in the US. It simply reclassified the cause of death. It even solidifies the point that Covid was used for fear and control. 

[farmersfight]

On 3/22/2021 at 9:59 AM, HuliHuli said:

There is no crisis at our cruise ports where so many are unemployed, it's just a challenge we have under control.

 

It's o.k., those cruise port employees can make wind turbine blades and solar panels.

[hamrag]

4 hours ago, BoozinCroozin said:

....The only conclusion is Covid has had no impact on the death rate in the US. It simply reclassified the cause of death. It even solidifies the point that Covid was used for fear and control. 

 

🤡 🤡

[BoozinCroozin]

35 minutes ago, hamrag said:

 

🤡 🤡

Not sure what the clown faces are for. Just commenting on documented facts from the US. Covid had no effect on the overall death rate. The only thing you can argue is if the data the government provided is inaccurate. 

[onlyslightlymad]

6 hours ago, BoozinCroozin said:

I redid the math and it solidifies the point even more that Covid has had absolutely no effect on the US death rate in 2020. After you pointed out the original data numbers, I recalculated.

 

2020 US Population: 331,000,000

2020 US Deaths: 331,000,000 x 0.00888 (death rate as a percentage) = 2,939,280

2020 US Deaths (by Covid): 361,000

2020 US Deaths without Covid: (2,939,280 - 361,000) / 331,000,000 = 0.78% or 7.8 based per 1,000 people.

 

The total number of deaths for 2020 are in line since 2014. Nowhere in since 1950 (where the chart begins) has there ever been a 12.5% drop in the death rate in the US from the previous year. There has never been a death rate under 8.0/1,000 people in 70 years. The only conclusion is Covid has had no impact on the death rate in the US. It simply reclassified the cause of death. It even solidifies the point that Covid was used for fear and control. 

I couldn't possibly comment on the political situation in your country.  That wouldn't be useful and I'm hardly an expert.  I just wonder where you are getting your 2020 stats from.  I can't find any final summary stats for 2020 yet and I'd be surprised if the final count has come in.  I may be wrong.

I know I listen to an interesting Stats podcast from the UK and that their initial Covid count is altered later by the organisation that reviews death certificates and looks at cause of death more closely but that takes time.  I would be cautious using any preliminary numbers unless I was very sure where they were coming from.

 

[roger001]

My two neighbors, husband and wife, died two weeks ago after two agonizing and painful weeks in the hospital.  They both had Covid.  Near the end, it triggered a stroke in her and she died the next day.  Her husband who died two days later died from lung and respiratory  failure.  Of course, they both actually died from heart failure.  You can chose how you wish to categorize their deaths, but for me, Covid killed them.  

[OzCanuck]

6 hours ago, BoozinCroozin said:

I redid the math and it solidifies the point even more that Covid has had absolutely no effect on the US death rate in 2020. After you pointed out the original data numbers, I recalculated.

 

2020 US Population: 331,000,000

2020 US Deaths: 331,000,000 x 0.00888 (death rate as a percentage) = 2,939,280

2020 US Deaths (by Covid): 361,000

2020 US Deaths without Covid: (2,939,280 - 361,000) / 331,000,000 = 0.78% or 7.8 based per 1,000 people.

 

The total number of deaths for 2020 are in line since 2014. Nowhere in since 1950 (where the chart begins) has there ever been a 12.5% drop in the death rate in the US from the previous year. There has never been a death rate under 8.0/1,000 people in 70 years. The only conclusion is Covid has had no impact on the death rate in the US. It simply reclassified the cause of death. It even solidifies the point that Covid was used for fear and control. 

The only conclusion is that your numbers are wrong?  Essentially every agency and news outlet (even Fox, so maybe you’ll believe it) is reporting well over 3.1-3.2 million.  You can’t just make things up and then pretend it proves all your points.  Textbook sophistry. 

[HuliHuli]

Fresh press reports from a few hours ago are reporting "dueling statements underscore mounting tension between the [cruise] industry and the CDC a year after a series of deadly Covid-19 outbreaks at sea put the entire industry into hibernation."  “Returning to passenger cruising is a phased approach to mitigate the risk of spreading Covid-19,” the CDC said. “Details for the next phase of the CSO are currently under interagency review.”  The cruise industry can get back to business under the current framework, but the companies said Wednesday that it has set back their return and “unfairly” singles out the industry from other tourism and hospitality sectors.

 

More bureaucratic nonsense from people who have probably never set foot on a ship.

[cruisin07family]

4 hours ago, roger001 said:

My two neighbors, husband and wife, died two weeks ago after two agonizing and painful weeks in the hospital.  They both had Covid.  Near the end, it triggered a stroke in her and she died the next day.  Her husband who died two days later died from lung and respiratory  failure.  Of course, they both actually died from heart failure.  You can chose how you wish to categorize their deaths, but for me, Covid killed them.  

I don't believe anyone here has denied that people have died from COVID.  What I've read is that there is a distinction between dying from COVID vs dying with COVID.  If you look at the breakdowns by age groups you also see that the vast majority were elderly, in nursing homes and obviously the infirmed.  People with terminal illnesses, like cancer, etc. died quicker maybe due to COVID, but they were already going to die.  When there is a financial benefit for hospitals to list COVID on the death certificates, of course there is reason to be suspicious of the actual numbers.  I doubt the true numbers will ever be known.  

 

I'm sorry for your loss and that your neighbors suffered.  I know many friends and coworkers that have had COVID, sadly one with diabetes and over age 70, didn't make it.  The rest were either asymptomatic or had very mild symptoms.  Everyone has their personal experiences.

[Incognito1]

Interesting calculator here, from Johns Hopkins: https://covid19risktools.com:8443/riskcalculator

Put in your specifics and it will calculate your risk relative to the general population of getting the COVID virus. 

 

The case fatality rate is currently about 2% (meaning 2% of those with confirmed cases die).  If you're a stats person, see here: https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid.  The most interesting to me was not the age (everyone knows the risk goes up rapidly the older one is), but that there was such a drastic difference for those without co-morbidities. 

 

Stay safe.  Follow your own risk assessment.  If my risk came out red, I might make different decisions.  Happily it's green.

Edited March 25, 2021 by Incognito1
typo

[BoozinCroozin]

8 hours ago, OzCanuck said:

The only conclusion is that your numbers are wrong?  Essentially every agency and news outlet (even Fox, so maybe you’ll believe it) is reporting well over 3.1-3.2 million.  You can’t just make things up and then pretend it proves all your points.  Textbook sophistry. 

There is NOTHING made up about these numbers. They are all factual. Do a Google search to prove it. It takes about 1 minute to get it.

Google: US population 2020 (I'll make it easy for you 331M)

Google: US death rate 2020 (I'll make it easy for you 8.88 per 1,000 people or 0.888%)

Google: US Covid deaths 2020 (This one takes a little more digging by clicking on the chart for Dec 31, 2020 to get the number)

 

Those are all the numbers you need to solve the problem. If you want to argue the factual numbers, you are welcome to. Then I get to argue EVERY person that was labelled as a "covid related" death that had nothing to do with covid at all.

[Trimone]

Ask any undertaker if they have been busier? 

[mianmike]

47 minutes ago, Trimone said:

Ask any undertaker if they have been busier? 

 

Or talk to my niece, the contract traveling ICU nurse.  She's never seen anything like this virus.  

[Trimone]

1 hour ago, mianmike said:

 

Or talk to my niece, the contract traveling ICU nurse.  She's never seen anything like this virus.  

If you are able to get it, there’s a program just released about Kate Garraway husband Derek Draper, it’s called Kate Garraway Finding Derek.

it’s Heart Breaking...

[graphicguy]

The good news, we're finally focusing on getting vaccines distributed, and getting people vaccinated here in the U.S.  The results are promising over the last couple of months as infection and death rates are dropping vs COVID running rampant unchecked from late 2019 through all of 2020.

 

I would think if this trend continues, the cruise lines (and hopefully the CDC) will feel more comfortable with sailing again.  It's a guess for anyone to make, but if the vaccines are being received at current rates, I think cruising out of the U.S. ports might start happening in July.

 

It certainly seems like NCL is preparing for that eventuality, even though they've been fairly cloak and dagger about what they're doing.

[mking8288]

1 hour ago, graphicguy said:

The good news, we're finally focusing on getting vaccines distributed, and getting people vaccinated here in the U.S.  The results are promising over the last couple of months as infection and death rates are dropping vs COVID running rampant unchecked from late 2019 through all of 2020.

I would think if this trend continues, the cruise lines (and hopefully the CDC) will feel more comfortable with sailing again.  It's a guess for anyone to make, but ... if ...

 

I love the power of positive thinking and we as cruise addicts need lots of that.  Reality is that on a global scale, still plenty of if's and but's on Covid-19 and its troublesome variants, and folks getting vaccinated.  I also wonder how the cruise industry are going about to vaccinate their crew members abroad in bringing them back onboard, to prepare for sailing again in the coming months ... sooner or later.  Some countries abroad are struggling with having adequate access to the vaccine and prioritizing their high-risk population and those on the frontline.

 

I've not post lately here and stayed on the sideline on purpose, 2020 has been a very busy and transitional year for us - counting our blessings as we've lost friends ... sold our old house, downsized & moved into a fully renovated garden co-op apartment and settled in again with our new normal, carefree living.  Mrs. M and I about to get our 2nd dose of Pfizer this weekend, and by early April - should be good with being protected, rollerboards are always packed and ready to roll, actually a bit closer to the cruise terminal than before but slightly further away from LGA & JFK - started to look at cruises & our travel and vacation choices again. 

 

Not surprised at CDC's current stance and posture - fully not expected to be able to visit Canada until 2022 at the earliest nor the northern ports to be open, even for a "technical" stops.  I see road trips on our horizon this Fall instead as our choice for leisure travel ... not planning to fly to a distance port for embarkation/disembarkation anytime soon, with the givens. 

 

A nursing colleague of one of our extended families' just tested positive after being fully vaccinated in February ... and, one of my nephew in nursing simply "told" me, uncle ... do not go, it is too soon to safely cruise.  Of course, we can choose to ignore advice.  

 

Anyway, safe travel.  

 

P.S.  GG - hi out there and how are things with you.  

Edited March 25, 2021 by mking8288

[graphicguy]

23 hours ago, mking8288 said:

 

I love the power of positive thinking and we as cruise addicts need lots of that.  Reality is that on a global scale, still plenty of if's and but's on Covid-19 and its troublesome variants, and folks getting vaccinated.  I also wonder how the cruise industry are going about to vaccinate their crew members abroad in bringing them back onboard, to prepare for sailing again in the coming months ... sooner or later.  Some countries abroad are struggling with having adequate access to the vaccine and prioritizing their high-risk population and those on the frontline.

 

I've not post lately here and stayed on the sideline on purpose, 2020 has been a very busy and transitional year for us - counting our blessings as we've lost friends ... sold our old house, downsized & moved into a fully renovated garden co-op apartment and settled in again with our new normal, carefree living.  Mrs. M and I about to get our 2nd dose of Pfizer this weekend, and by early April - should be good with being protected, rollerboards are always packed and ready to roll, actually a bit closer to the cruise terminal than before but slightly further away from LGA & JFK - started to look at cruises & our travel and vacation choices again. 

 

Not surprised at CDC's current stance and posture - fully not expected to be able to visit Canada until 2022 at the earliest nor the northern ports to be open, even for a "technical" stops.  I see road trips on our horizon this Fall instead as our choice for leisure travel ... not planning to fly to a distance port for embarkation/disembarkation anytime soon, with the givens. 

 

A nursing colleague of one of our extended families' just tested positive after being fully vaccinated in February ... and, one of my nephew in nursing simply "told" me, uncle ... do not go, it is too soon to safely cruise.  Of course, we can choose to ignore advice.  

 

Anyway, safe travel.  

 

P.S.  GG - hi out there and how are things with you.  

Thanks for the shout out.  I'm fine.  Good to hear you guys are, too.

 

While, I'm not in the "target group" eligible to get the COVID vaccine, I was transporting some of those who could not get to COVID vaccine sites due to health, age, mental challenges, etc.  Still am doing transports.  As such, and dealing with those who are most vulnerable, I got both Pfizer shots with no ill effects.  So, all good here.

 

But, have lost some folks I knew because of COVID.  They were aged from late 30s to early 80s.  So, COVID didn't discriminate by age.  Late 30s lady was happy one weak, and passed away two weeks later due to COVID.  Some others were intubated and although they didn't succumb, they're still dealing with the after effects of COVID, and it ain't pretty!

 

My son is 35 and has found an appointment to get the COVID vaccine next week.  That's a huge worry that will be lifted once he's vaccinated.

 

With the vaccine becoming more available, and the resultant drop in both infections and mortality rates, I see things opening up a little more.  While the whole FL scene with Spring Break revelers was disconcerting, it's Florida, so fairly far away from me.

 

Guessing here, but the little tidbits I hear from various sources is that cruise crew have to be vaccinated before boarding.  I know the U.S., with the big distribution push, has enough of the various vaccine doses to now offer it to other countries.  Reasonable to think those doses will end up in the private sector (like cruise crew).  

 

Passengers, at least those 18 and over (some are saying ALL passengers) will have to be vaccinated in order to sail.  That's a good thing.  Cruise lines want to remove every possible avenue for infection rather than risk an outbreak or even the appearance of nonchalance when it comes to COVID.  We've already seen the cruise lines put in very sophisticated air filtration systems designed to virtually airborne COVID.  Of course, that doesn't eliminate person to person transmission of it, which is why passengers and crew will have to be vaccinated.

 

Well, that post went on for longer than I intended it to.  LOL!

 

Looking into my crystal ball, I see cruises originating from Caribbean and Mexican ports sailing very soon as a result of the above efforts.  When the U.S. ports open up is just a matter of time after that.  Florida seems to be trying to thwart cruises starting given their attitude towards COVID.  But, they'll either acquiesce, or miss out on a chunk of the cruise business for much longer until they prove they have transmissions under control (and not try to hide the real COVID numbers, as they have so far).

 

Personally, I'm booking  the Bliss out of LA for December 2021. Feel pretty confident about that one.

 

Again, good to hear you and your loved ones are good and well, my cruising friend!

[Marine Mom]

On 3/23/2021 at 5:08 PM, boatseller said:

Well, we have lots and lots of very nice things in Florida like open theme parks, open resorts, open restaurants, open beaches, open bars, unrestricted travel, no mask mandate, low unemployment, a budget surplus.

 

We would gladly be cruising right now if not for the complete and disgraceful incompetence at the CDCP.  They alone are why we're not cruising.  There is zero, none, zippo, nada scientific or rational justification for their costly inaction.  They're just dumb cronies more concerned with protecting their power.

 

FYI, Hong King Disneyland just reopened in February, our parks have been open since June.  Australia's 'success' came at tremendous ecomomic and social costs.  Their lives are hardly normal and it will take years to recover from the damage.  No, it did not have to be that way, Floridians know that.

You are 100% correct!  

[CaptainHazelwood]

4 hours ago, graphicguy said:

Florida seems to be trying to thwart cruises starting given their attitude towards COVID.

I believe that you are mistaken.

 

Florida governor searches for 'way forward' for 'crippled' cruise industry (wptv.com)

[BermudaBound2014]

1 hour ago, CaptainHazelwood said:

I believe that you are mistaken.

 

Florida governor searches for 'way forward' for 'crippled' cruise industry (wptv.com)

 

I think it is absolutely hilarious that the article you linked says (in bold print) READ THE NO-SAIL ORDER: but then links the Framework for Conditional Sailing order.....

 

 

 

Many of us here on CC read between the lines last October and realized that the Framework for Conditional sailing was, in effect, a continuation of the No-Sail order. Of course, we were deemed negative. IMO; anyone who reads the Framework carefully understands that it is painfully obvious ships will not be sailing from USA waters under the current framework order.  Flash forward 6 months and the news media has finally caught on. 

 

The meeting held today does seem like the CDC is starting to get pressure to open things up. Not sure if the CDC will listen, but it appears the major players are finally weighing in: DeSantis (Gov Florida), Mazloum (Disney), Sasso (MSC), Duffy (CCL), Bayley (RCI). DelRay wasn't quoted in this article, but that doesn't mean he wasn't in attendance. I'd like to see the roster for the meeting.

Cruise Industry Execs Aggressively Call for Restart with Florida Gov. DeSantis - Cruise Industry News | Cruise News

 

 

 

[MSUjohn]

On 3/22/2021 at 10:46 PM, AtlantaAlly said:

And I am still so thankful that they happened. As a waitress during high school and college, I remember the difference in cleaning routines from smoking section to non- the color of the cloths from the smoking section and how gross the cleaning bucket was. I remember having to pay other waitresses to work the smoking sections (they were smokers and didn’t mind). So glad that service/bartender health mattered.

so get a different job?

[MSUjohn]

On 3/23/2021 at 2:26 AM, mianmike said:

 

Agree with you with the caveat:

 

Obesity is self-inflicted.  It's not like there are secondhand calories drifting through the air making unsuspecting people fat.  

i still am very skeptical about second hand smoke being anything other than a nuisance to non smokers.