When will low passenger cruises end?

[tampadee]

We are scheduled October 23 on Odyssey.  Will this be back to regular amount of passengers?

[Biker19]

1 minute ago, tampadee said:

We are scheduled October 23 on Odyssey.  Will this be back to regular amount of passengers?

Unlikely any ship will be back to "regular" capacity before the end of the year.

[coachmike1959]

15 minutes ago, tampadee said:

We are scheduled October 23 on Odyssey.  Will this be back to regular amount of passengers?

i have read the odyssey is sailing at a little less than 50% today

[mrlevin]

Until enough people book they will all be low occupancy.  This limited occupancy was a way for all the cruise lines saying they were sailing light for health reasons instead of the fact that they couldn't sell them out.

[Russ Lomas]

1 hour ago, mrlevin said:

Until enough people book they will all be low occupancy.  This limited occupancy was a way for all the cruise lines saying they were sailing light for health reasons instead of the fact that they couldn't sell them out.

I still think that they are going to limit cabins.  They want to be operating at enough capacity to be turning a profit (which cannot be done at some of the very low passenger levels they have had the past month or so), but they are not going to crank up the occupancy and risk having a ship shut down due to an outbreak and putting the entire industry in the spotlight again.  I do not think they will have too much trouble selling out cruises (especially the more desirable ships) when the time comes, but right now, I am sure they are thinking about the long game and not short-term profits.

 

2 hours ago, tampadee said:

We are scheduled October 23 on Odyssey.  Will this be back to regular amount of passengers?

Very unlikely.  I cannot vouch for the validity of a statement someone who sailed with me on the Odyssey last month made to me, but they said they talked to some senior crew members (this person said they were sailing the Odyssey again in April) and they were told that they hope to have the ship at about 80% occupancy by then.  If this is true, that would bode well for you not being at full capacity next month.  I would be shocked to see any RCCL ships sailing full prior to Christmas, at the earliest.

[FamilyCruiserUK]

Having just been on anthem of the seas for a week around the uk. I cannot see how they can have full capacity ships with the covid restrictions onboard. People will not pay a full amount to have to queue to use the pool or some of the dining venues. Or to book shows with limited capacity. Even lifts were travel group only or four people. 

 

I just cant see cruisng going back to the ram packed ships pre covid.

[bajathree]

2 hours ago, tampadee said:

We are scheduled October 23 on Odyssey.  Will this be back to regular amount of passengers?

No

[bajathree]

2 hours ago, coachmike1959 said:

i have read the odyssey is sailing at a little less than 50% today

There has been a big difference between the 6 and 8 night sailings. The 6 night passenger count have been jumping compared to the 8 nights which have been significantly lower. Last weeks 8 night only had 500 passengers.

Edited September 6, 2021 by bajathree

[bucfan2]

If they continue w/ these protocols, I would say after ‘re-organization’. 
 

That’s not to say their not ‘doing what they have to’/etc/etc….just an end result IMO. 

Edited September 6, 2021 by bucfan2

[smplybcause]

Mariner was just under 1600 this weekend. So that was 40%. And cabins were still for sale 2 days before so my guess is the allowed capacity was a little more than that. 

[ampurp85]

I agree that regular capacity won't happen until at least 2022. Also Sept/Oct are the slower months as many children are back to school, its the tail-end of hurricane season and a myriad of other reasons. I can say it will probably hover around 50% except for maybe a few holiday sailings. I think my Oct allure sailing may get to close to 3000pax but more than that is not likely.

[Biker19]

15 minutes ago, smplybcause said:

Mariner was just under 1600 this weekend. So that was 40%.

Most of the time RCI (and many others), count 100% occupancy at about 3100 (double occupancy).

[smplybcause]

54 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

Most of the time RCI (and many others), count 100% occupancy at about 3100 (double occupancy).

 

Ah Google failed me. So then it was half capacity then. Makes sense - it definitely didn't feel empty like others have mentioned on the cruise, but most of the time it wasn't hard to find a seat. 

[DallasGuy75219]

422 on Adventure this week. The ship is a ghost town.

[kruzerci]

Freedom had 2,600 this weekend, which is over 50% and cabins were still for sale the day before at low prices. Makes me wonder if they are even capping capacity or if there is just not demand with current protocols and Delta variant. 

[klfrodo]

When the pandemic ends.

Get the vaccine before another variant blows up all this hard work.

[smplybcause]

18 minutes ago, kruzerci said:

Freedom had 2,600 this weekend, which is over 50% and cabins were still for sale the day before at low prices. Makes me wonder if they are even capping capacity or if there is just not demand with current protocols and Delta variant. 

 

That explains why it seemed there were so many more green wristbands at the pool yesterday! Thought it was just more partiers on your ship.

[billslowsky]

And when they can go places people want to go to, not just their beach club.  I can go to resorts in Florida for a lot less.

[kruzerci]

40 minutes ago, smplybcause said:

 

That explains why it seemed there were so many more green wristbands at the pool yesterday! Thought it was just more partiers on your ship.

Lol. No just way more people. We had fun but wouldn’t repeat the weekend. Way too many people for the protocols in place. Over 50% occupancy but less than 50% of pool chairs and tables/seats open. It was disappointing. 

[Iamcruzin]

4 hours ago, mrlevin said:

Until enough people book they will all be low occupancy.  This limited occupancy was a way for all the cruise lines saying they were sailing light for health reasons instead of the fact that they couldn't sell them out.

Especially as they make it more difficult to board the ship in the first place.  

[gretchengao]

I have a different question: We are going to sail on the New Year's eve Cruise this year. I wonder if they are going to enforce capacity limit and kick me out of my booked cruise? Right now they do not have that problem (capacity is naturally low). But not for holiday sailings, it looks like my holiday cruise is pretty booked at this point. 

[firefly333]

12 minutes ago, gretchengao said:

I have a different question: We are going to sail on the New Year's eve Cruise this year. I wonder if they are going to enforce capacity limit and kick me out of my booked cruise? Right now they do not have that problem (capacity is naturally low). But not for holiday sailings, it looks like my holiday cruise is pretty booked at this point. 

Enforce a non existent capacity? If they reach a capacity they want they can close off bookings for your cruise. Why would they kick you out of your cabin to book someone else? 

 

I think it's safe to assume if the ship sails you wouldnt get cancelled. 

 

I'm more worried about the low bookings that I am over bookings. I saw where adventure went out under 500 pax. Jewel under 500 pax. Very low pax counts.

[Jenna]

Random question - where can you see how many passengers a ship has sailed out with?

[DallasGuy75219]

8 hours ago, coachmike1959 said:

i have read the odyssey is sailing at a little less than 50% today

I'm on Adventure; we were at CocoCay with Odyssey today. A crewmember said 1400 on Odyssey.  CocoCay seemed deserted, even with 2 ships.

[At Sea At Peace]

5 hours ago, bucfan2 said:

If they continue w/ these protocols, I would say after ‘re-organization’. 
 

That’s not to say their not ‘doing what they have to’/etc/etc….just an end result IMO. 

 

Yep.  They will have to soon 'fess up. 

 

The short-term bookings based upon the massive 'pent up demand they alluded to (pre-Delta) have been significantly and materially impacted by Delta.  The information flow has transitioned, i.e., pivoted, to how great 2022 and 2023 bookings are (in part because of the underwhelming interest in the next 9 months).

 

It's not their fault.  No one predicted the current circumstances.

 

The same for 'business travel,' 'conventions,' and the like.  It appears, to a reasonably prudent person, that we are facing another Fall, Winter and Spring '2020 2021 deja vu.'

 

It is what it is.

 

I totally expect CCL, RCCL and NCLH to be a bit more forthcoming in disclosing the above facts and factors in their SEC filings.  If the scenario I suggest unravels, I'd agree that 'after re-organization' under the debt holders (Creditor's Committee Hedge funds) will hold all the cards, gain control, ride out a year, and move on.

 

Shareholders likely wiped out.

 

Customer deposits, due to brand and loyalty concerns, just might be honored.

 

The ships will 'sail on, just under a different ownership umbrella.