Is There a Way to Figure Out How Full a Ship Will Be?

[jtwind]

Hi All!  We're still both covidiots, so if we had a choice, we'd rather be on a ship running at half capacity rather than full capacity.  If we plan 2 to 3 weeks in advance, is there a way to be able to figure out how full the ship is before booking?  Thanks.

[BruceMuzz]

Usually, no.

[navybankerteacher]

7 minutes ago, jtwind said:

Hi All!  We're still both covidiots, so if we had a choice, we'd rather be on a ship running at half capacity rather than full capacity.  If we plan 2 to 3 weeks in advance, is there a way to be able to figure out how full the ship is before booking?  Thanks.

I would think that cruise lines would not want that information to be available —- but, by tracking pricing over a long period,  it may be possible to get an idea.  If fares start dropping about a month before sailing, it would be kind of obvious that they are trying to fill their bunks — but last minute sales - particularly if pricing is very attractive - can rapidly fill a ship.  One variable could be port of embarkation - if it is not near major population centers the cost of getting to the port could dampen demand.

[ldubs]

Make a pretend booking preferably after final payment date.   Look to see how many cabins are available. I saw this suggested on someone's blog.  Might work, who knows.   

[wowzz]

3 hours ago, ldubs said:

Make a pretend booking preferably after final payment date.   Look to see how many cabins are available. I saw this suggested on someone's blog.  Might work, who knows.   

Not much help, as many passengers may be paying "saver" type fares,  where cabins are allocated at the last minute. You could,  for example,  see 500 available cabins,  but if there are 450  "saver" fares, only 50 cabins will in fact be available.

[Joebucks]

It will be mostly full. There, saved you the disappointment that ships will not be running at half-capacity.

[ColeThornton]

4 hours ago, wowzz said:

Not much help, as many passengers may be paying "saver" type fares,  where cabins are allocated at the last minute. You could,  for example,  see 500 available cabins,  but if there are 450  "saver" fares, only 50 cabins will in fact be available.

 

 

Not only that but not all cruise line websites show all the given cabins available in a category.  They may only show 20 at a time.   NCL has a weird system like that.

[wowzz]

10 minutes ago, ColeThornton said:

 

 

Not only that but not all cruise line websites show all the given cabins available in a category.  They may only show 20 at a time.   NCL has a weird system like that.

Good point. Other cruise lines do the same.

[Markanddonna]

It would be an exercise in futility to try to figure out that closely guarded info, especially at this "sort of" post Covid time.  I was on a ship in March that had about 800 the week before us- we had 3,300. From what I'm seeing, the summer season will be pretty much at capacity. After that, it could continue, especially if more Covid regulations are lifted.

[ldubs]

8 hours ago, wowzz said:

Not much help, as many passengers may be paying "saver" type fares,  where cabins are allocated at the last minute. You could,  for example,  see 500 available cabins,  but if there are 450  "saver" fares, only 50 cabins will in fact be available.

 

Aw yeah, I didn't think of the guar cabins.  I don't know how much that is used, but my impression would be a lot.   

[Corby114]

Most ships are sailing at close to full double occupancy. I recently sailed on Royal Caribbean’s Adventure Of The Seas five day sailing from Cape Liberty to Bermuda on June 9th. The ship holds 3,500 passengers double occupancy. At the terminal a representative advised me that there were over 3,400 passengers. They are apparently still holding back some cabins in case of Covid quarantine measures. To my knowledge there were no Covid passengers during my sailing.

[Ashland]

You'll easily be able to find out once onboard...but don't count on the low occupancy many of us enjoyed late last year and early this year. Then there are the "no shows" to take into consideration also.

[Tonsoffun44]

How full - remember plenty of cabins CAN hold 3+ but have 1-2 actually in them. 

[ldubs]

2 hours ago, Tonsoffun44 said:

How full - remember plenty of cabins CAN hold 3+ but have 1-2 actually in them. 

 

Apparently cruise ships can reach the max passenger occupancy limit before they can fill every bed.  Has to do with lifeboat capacity.   At least that is what I read on these forums.    If I have it right, it is good to know someone is thinking about this.  

Edited June 25, 2022 by ldubs

[Markanddonna]

5 hours ago, Tonsoffun44 said:

How full - remember plenty of cabins CAN hold 3+ but have 1-2 actually in them. 

We were on one of those cruises in Feb 2020 right as COVID was breaking out. There were SO many kids because of President's Day which turns into a full week off for many kids. We were on a B2B and noted the first week was so pleasant and perhaps the least sick group of passengers ever. All that changed with many cabins with 3-4 passengers.  So, you are absolutely correct.

 

Also, I believe you really won't get a sense of how many passengers REALLY had COVID on anything less than a seven day cruise. COVID rears its ugly head around day six with lots of infected people who will go home and test positive. That's just the way it is!

[kelkel2]

I think for the most part, lower capacity cruises are done. Cruise lines are going to try to get back to profitability and they need and want them full. If you have the ability to, cruise in the winter or when school is in session and it won’t be terrible.

[CruiserBruce]

There are two types of "full" in the cruise business. The "full occupancy" of, essentially 2 people in each cabin, and the max capacity allowed by lifeboats and other considerations, like extra bunks in rooms.

 

Most of the time when a ship is said to be full with XXX pax, that refers to two people in each cabin. And I understand the max lifeboat capacity can be reached even if there are actually still bunks unassigned.

[DnD CruiserZ]

This won't help pre cruise but it might be interesting to know later.

 

When we cruised on NCL to AK in May, we were told by some ship staff, shuttle bus drivers, excursion operators we had between 2400 to 2700. I think the ship full is 4008.

The point is all 3 sources were within about 300 of each other.

I would assume there might be some sort of communication between the cruiseline and the ports so the restaurants/shopping/excursion operators/shuttle busses know what to schedule for. I would like to think they would have more busses available for 4008 people potentially getting off the ship than 24-2700.

 

Or...I'm crazy to assume there would be some kind of planning...

 

Edit...I guess during the cruise, they will share that information, so never mind, not a big secret...carry on...

Edited June 27, 2022 by DnD CruiserZ