Fourth Excel Ship Ordered for a 2027 Delivery

[john91498]

So many carnival CEOs'...lol...i'll throw out that all 4 ships are going to Kansas...😝

[jimbo5544]

13 minutes ago, john91498 said:

So many carnival CEOs'...lol...i'll throw out that all 4 ships are going to Kansas...😝

Lots of good info, you can accept the historical wisdom or not.  As I always said, options are a good thing.  

[mz-s]

23 minutes ago, john91498 said:

So many carnival CEOs'...lol...i'll throw out that all 4 ships are going to Kansas...😝

 

Cruising is not just a vacation, learning about the industry and sharing that knowledge is also a hobby for many of us here. It's all part of this forum.

[john91498]

it's more like best guesstimates than wisdom

[Theosprey247]

They must be making money otherwise they wouldn’t have 3 (2 full time) ships there. Unless they are using LB as a tax write off.

[Squirreladd]

1. West coast has potential if Carnival remembered they can send their ships another direction then south, Monterey is gorgeous, San Diego, Santa Cruz, and many other American cities that have little no novelty to Americans on vacation and top it off with a token stop in Ensenada .  

 

2. It may be West coast. 2027 is a big year for so-cal. The planned completion of the Brightline west, will possibly allow more people to cruise from southern Nevada if they make it convenient enough. If Carnival or a private company offers reasonably priced transfers from Rancho Cucamonga, or Union Station it will be pretty cool. 

 

3. It would allow carnival to possibly seasonal a vista class between SF, Seattle, and LA.

 

Why kid myself SO-Cal is not getting the new Excel, they will replace the radiance with a vista if anything. 

 

EDIT: I don't think west coast cruises are for seasoned cruisers. I think the purpose is to lure new people into it then get them to book on a different one after they enjoy it. It could explain the low prices and the heavy focus carnival keeps on it. 

Edited February 24 by Squirreladd

[jimbo5544]

19 hours ago, john91498 said:

it's more like best guesstimates than wisdom

When facts are involved, I disagree.  When people ignore facts, it is like wisdom….or the opposite.  All that said, to each their own.  

[jimbo5544]

4 hours ago, Squirreladd said:

1. West coast has potential if Carnival remembered they can send their ships another direction then south, Monterey is gorgeous, San Diego, Santa Cruz, and many other American cities that have little no novelty to Americans on vacation and top it off with a token stop in Ensenada .  

 

2. It may be West coast. 2027 is a big year for so-cal. The planned completion of the Brightline west, will possibly allow more people to cruise from southern Nevada if they make it convenient enough. If Carnival or a private company offers reasonably priced transfers from Rancho Cucamonga, or Union Station it will be pretty cool. 

 

3. It would allow carnival to possibly seasonal a vista class between SF, Seattle, and LA.

 

Why kid myself SO-Cal is not getting the new Excel, they will replace the radiance with a vista if anything. 

 

EDIT: I don't think west coast cruises are for seasoned cruisers. I think the purpose is to lure new people into it then get them to book on a different one after they enjoy it. It could explain the low prices and the heavy focus carnival keeps on it. 

The problem is you have to have a foreign port stop on any cruise.  There are just not a lot of options.

[JMKreno]

On 2/24/2024 at 5:54 AM, Squirreladd said:

1. West coast has potential if Carnival remembered they can send their ships another direction then south, Monterey is gorgeous, San Diego, Santa Cruz, and many other American cities that have little no novelty to Americans on vacation and top it off with a token stop in Ensenada .  

 

2. It may be West coast. 2027 is a big year for so-cal. The planned completion of the Brightline west, will possibly allow more people to cruise from southern Nevada if they make it convenient enough. If Carnival or a private company offers reasonably priced transfers from Rancho Cucamonga, or Union Station it will be pretty cool. 

 

3. It would allow carnival to possibly seasonal a vista class between SF, Seattle, and LA.

 

Why kid myself SO-Cal is not getting the new Excel, they will replace the radiance with a vista if anything. 

 

EDIT: I don't think west coast cruises are for seasoned cruisers. I think the purpose is to lure new people into it then get them to book on a different one after they enjoy it. It could explain the low prices and the heavy focus carnival keeps on it. 

We are seasoned cruisers and cruise out of Long Beach many times (our last 4 cruises have been to PV/Cabo/Mazatlan/Enenada/Catalina). We would love for an EXCEL class ship on the West Coast. At this point we go for the ship/cruise not the destinations. We have the Firenze planned for October of this year. 

 

That said, 2026-2028 is going to be a VERY big year for Southern California with the World Cup in NA in 2026, Super Bowl in 2027, and then the LA Olympics in 2028, there is going to be a lot of visibility to the region. Might make sense to ride the "wave" of publicity in the region. 

 

Who knows?

Edited March 6 by JMKreno

[jimbo5544]

1 hour ago, JMKreno said:

We are seasoned cruisers and cruise out of Long Beach many times (our last 4 cruises have been to PV/Cabo/Mazatlan/Enenada/Catalina). We would love for an EXCEL class ship on the West Coast. At this point we go for the ship/cruise not the destinations. We have the Firenze planned for October of this year. 

 

That said, 2026-2028 is going to be a VERY big year for Southern California with the World Cup in NA in 2026, Super Bowl in 2027, and then the LA Olympics in 2028, there is going to be a lot of visibility to the region. Might make sense to ride the "wave" of publicity in the region. 

 

Who knows?

Having more than the Panorama and Firenze is a lot to ask for (IMHO).  According to John H, the new ship is going to Cleveland anyway….

[tidecat]

1 hour ago, JMKreno said:

That said, 2026-2028 is going to be a VERY big year for Southern California with the World Cup in NA in 2026, Super Bowl in 2027, and then the LA Olympics in 2028, there is going to be a lot of visibility to the region. Might make sense to ride the "wave" of publicity in the region.

I don't think the World Cup, Super Bowl, and Olympics are going to do anything to increase cruising out of Southern California, unless if a bunch of folks decide to rent out their home and leave town during those events. In that regards cruising competes favorably with other forms of travel. Cruise ships are portable, buildings on land not so much

 

Princess is really the only worldwide brand-and has much deeper connections to Southern California-so any advertising efforts would probably be better focused there if you're dealing with a general international audience (i.e., advertising in the venue). If Carnival Corporation has the ability to geographically target with their ads (i.e. television), then they can push Costa, Carnival, both P&Os, and AIDA to the appropriate audiences.

 

What may happen is that some cruise operators may make their ships available for charter as temporary hotels. The LA/Long Beach area has about 98,000 hotel rooms (although the most recent data I could find was from 2016). I would think the extant hotels and rental home market would be large enough to absorb the Olympics, but there may still be some opportunity for cruise ships. London has about 123,000 hotel rooms, their hotel occupancy actually went down during the 2012 Olympics.

 

 

[tidecat]

41 minutes ago, jimbo5544 said:

Having more than the Panorama and Firenze is a lot to ask for (IMHO).

Excel 4 to Long Beach

Firenze from Long Beach to Galveston

Panorama from Long Beach to Norfolk

Spirit-class from Galveston (winter)/San Francisco (summer) to Long Beach (winter)/San Francisco (summer)

Sunshine from Norfolk to Aliaga

 

This would roughly level in terms of total capacity out of Long Beach during the winter months, and a decrease during the summer months while the Spirit-class ship is running out of SF. This adds capacity in a Galveston market that presumably is not slowing down. Port Canaveral and Norfolk also get a raise.

[dolphinsfan246]

18 minutes ago, tidecat said:

Excel 4 to Long Beach

Firenze from Long Beach to Galveston

Panorama from Long Beach to Norfolk

Spirit-class from Galveston (winter)/San Francisco (summer) to Long Beach (winter)/San Francisco (summer)

Sunshine from Norfolk to Aliaga

 

This would roughly level in terms of total capacity out of Long Beach during the winter months, and a decrease during the summer months while the Spirit-class ship is running out of SF. This adds capacity in a Galveston market that presumably is not slowing down. Port Canaveral and Norfolk also get a raise.

I see Panorama going to Australia. They can’t just sit on Splendor and Luminosa forever. Australians have been begging for a bigger Carnival ship and a Vista class would be perfect. They also have stiff competition with Royal typically sending a Quantum class there, and by 2026/27 they may have enough to commit an Oasis class ship down under. Also I don’t necessarily see Sunshine going straight to scrap, with its 2013 upgrades it carries a decent amount of equity to a second hand buyer, Margaritaville Sunshine anyone? It will be interesting to see if they commit a full conversion dry dock to Luminosa in the future (whale tail and actual Carnival venues) then maybe they would bring it to the States full time possibly on the East Coast (Baltimore, Jacksonville, Tampa) All of this is fun speculation of course. 

[jimbo5544]

18 minutes ago, tidecat said:

Excel 4 to Long Beach

Firenze from Long Beach to Galveston

Panorama from Long Beach to Norfolk

Spirit-class from Galveston (winter)/San Francisco (summer) to Long Beach (winter)/San Francisco (summer)

Sunshine from Norfolk to Aliaga

 

This would roughly level in terms of total capacity out of Long Beach during the winter months, and a decrease during the summer months while the Spirit-class ship is running out of SF. This adds capacity in a Galveston market that presumably is not slowing down. Port Canaveral and Norfolk also get a raise.

Firenze is I believe set with doing 4 or 5 day cruises.  I doubt they would take an excel class and send it to Norfolk, but who knows.  Galveston is Carnivals premier homeport, they will rule always and get premier attention.  I would be surprised if any others get sent to scrap, but they have not asked me for MHO.

[jimbo5544]

5 minutes ago, dolphinsfan246 said:

I see Panorama going to Australia. They can’t just sit on Splendor and Luminosa forever. Australians have been begging for a bigger Carnival ship and a Vista class would be perfect. They also have stiff competition with Royal typically sending a Quantum class there, and by 2026/27 they may have enough to commit an Oasis class ship down under. Also I don’t necessarily see Sunshine going straight to scrap, with its 2013 upgrades it carries a decent amount of equity to a second hand buyer, Margaritaville Sunshine anyone? It will be interesting to see if they commit a full conversion dry dock to Luminosa in the future (whale tail and actual Carnival venues) then maybe they would bring it to the States full time possibly on the East Coast (Baltimore, Jacksonville, Tampa) All of this is fun speculation of course. 

I have not ruled out Excel 4 to down under….

[dolphinsfan246]

3 minutes ago, jimbo5544 said:

I have not ruled out Excel 4 to down under….

Eh, Excel 4 is going to Port Canaveral or Miami then Mardi Gras or Celebration is getting bumped to wherever. Does Australia have the LNG bunkering capabilities? I wouldn’t rule out Mardi Gras or Celebration going down to 3,4&5 day service while Excel 4 takes their week itineraries in whichever port. Both Port Canaveral and Miami could accommodate 2 Excels. 

[tidecat]

I'd question whether Australia gets anything larger. The original plan for Panorama (as a P&O ship) was pulled back due to concerns over infrastructure in the ports of call. Then 2020 happened and the Australian market was one of the last to reopen.

[jimbo5544]

1 minute ago, dolphinsfan246 said:

Eh, Excel 4 is going to Port Canaveral or Miami then Mardi Gras or Celebration is getting bumped to wherever. Does Australia have the LNG bunkering capabilities? I wouldn’t rule out Mardi Gras or Celebration going down to 3,4&5 day service while Excel 4 takes their week itineraries in whichever port. Both Port Canaveral and Miami could accommodate 2 Excels. 

2027 is a ways off, but have no idea on what the Australian government will “allow”.  I would be shocked for an excel doing 4 and 5 day cruises. I see no reason for doubling up a current homeport with 2 excel class. But there are not a lot of options…US based anyways……currently.

[jimbo5544]

4 minutes ago, tidecat said:

I'd question whether Australia gets anything larger. The original plan for Panorama (as a P&O ship) was pulled back due to concerns over infrastructure in the ports of call. Then 2020 happened and the Australian market was one of the last to reopen.

And STILL has covid related issues.

[notscb]

8 minutes ago, jimbo5544 said:

I see no reason for doubling up a current homeport with 2 excel class

 

RCL is doing this very same thing at Miami- it'd be smart for Carnival to do it as well. Miami is clearly a cash cow for the cruise industry, and its on trend to put the best, flashiest and newest ships there for everyone to see and enjoy. I'd be surprised if Carnival didn't end up with two or more Excel ships there.

[BlerkOne]

29 minutes ago, notscb said:

 

RCL is doing this very same thing at Miami- it'd be smart for Carnival to do it as well. Miami is clearly a cash cow for the cruise industry, and its on trend to put the best, flashiest and newest ships there for everyone to see and enjoy. I'd be surprised if Carnival didn't end up with two or more Excel ships there.

It would be smarter not to follow Royal. Carnival isn't going to put a new ship on short cruises for now. They would put one in Fort Lauderdale before they put two in Miami.

[jedi bobs]

My thought would be Excel 4 to Port Canavral, Mardi Gras to NOLA, Valor or Liberty to Norfolk, Sunshine to Mobile, and Spirit over to Tampa.

 

Panorama, and Frenze are staying on the West coast becuse if they broght them East they would have to go down and around South America.

 

[dolphinsfan246]

52 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

It would be smarter not to follow Royal. Carnival isn't going to put a new ship on short cruises for now. They would put one in Fort Lauderdale before they put two in Miami.

Carnival once debuted the brand new Fantasy on 3&4 day cruises from Miami. And it was a smashing success. Not saying history repeats itself but history does repeat itself. 

[dolphinsfan246]

41 minutes ago, jedi bobs said:

My thought would be Excel 4 to Port Canavral, Mardi Gras to NOLA, Valor or Liberty to Norfolk, Sunshine to Mobile, and Spirit over to Tampa.

 

Panorama, and Frenze are staying on the West coast becuse if they broght them East they would have to go down and around South America.

 

I read that Excel ships can’t go to New Orleans, something to do with the depth of the river. 

[BlerkOne]

20 minutes ago, dolphinsfan246 said:

Carnival once debuted the brand new Fantasy on 3&4 day cruises from Miami. And it was a smashing success. Not saying history repeats itself but history does repeat itself. 

Carnival once had a non-smoking ship. They learn.