Mexico/swine flu discussions (merged)

[kitty9]

While one must be vigilant, you can't be alarmist, yet. There are now cases in NY and Minnesota, and all probably caused by travel to Mexico via airplane. The cases from the private school in NYC happened after a school trip to Mexico. If this continues, there probably will be some changes in travel to Mexico. I remember when they had the outbreak of bird flu in Asia, Crystal canceled three cruises in that area and cruised back to the US empty, and quickly revamped their cruising schedule to include three trips along the US West Coast.

[bouhunter]

And this thread is at a Royal Caribbean Cruise board why.....??:rolleyes:

[cincicruisers]

We leave next Saturday that includes Cozumel. Will keep an eye on things as the time draws near. I am actually more concerned with the flights than the cruise since I believe RCCL will keep us out of harms way.

[KULPN]

While one must be vigilant, you can't be alarmist, yet. There are now cases in NY and Minnesota, and all probably caused by travel to Mexico via airplane. The cases from the private school in NYC happened after a school trip to Mexico. If this continues, there probably will be some changes in travel to Mexico. I remember when they had the outbreak of bird flu in Asia, Crystal canceled three cruises in that area and cruised back to the US empty, and quickly revamped their cruising schedule to include three trips along the US West Coast.

You are the voice of reason...refreshing.

[chipmaster]

While one must be vigilant, you can't be alarmist, yet. There are now cases in NY and Minnesota, and all probably caused by travel to Mexico via airplane. The cases from the private school in NYC happened after a school trip to Mexico. If this continues, there probably will be some changes in travel to Mexico. I remember when they had the outbreak of bird flu in Asia, Crystal canceled three cruises in that area and cruised back to the US empty, and quickly revamped their cruising schedule to include three trips along the US West Coast.

 

I think you have already highlighted the real issue. Unless this transmission is still primarily pig to person the fact you have cases across the globe makes containment to mexico mute. Avian flu containment was effective because the transmission was primarily bird to human and the virus wasn't adept at human to human transmission and never muted to a strain that could. If this holds for this case strain of swine flu then travel restrictions will be effective. If human to human transmission become easier thru mutations and it has long incubation with carrier being contagious before developing symptons then the virus is already out of control. Interesting case study with the current ease of global travel. The world and CDC is going to be either lucky or too late already. We'll know in about 2-3 weeks which way this one goes and even then it would only take one chaotic mutation to change everything :eek:

[brn2crz]

The concept of what constitutes an outbreak should be refined. In public health literature, the term is used inconsistently and often imprecisely. For example, in certain situations, an outbreak can mean an increase in incidence over the endemic level (i.e., the term is used to refer to the onset of some observed change). In another meaning, the term can signify a degree of magnitude over a period of time that generates a public health concern. In a third context, risk communication, the term can serve as a synonym for epidemic, often with the intention of reducing the public's level of fear. The more is learned about the process of infectious diseases, exposure, and manifestation, the clearer the concept of outbreak will become, allowing it to be used with more rigor. Both the efficiency and the accuracy of outbreak forecasting using the mathematical modeling will depend on clarity and rigor in the use of key terms. With more attention paid to the precision of the common language shared by mathematicians and epidemiologists, forecasting will enable public health authorities not merely to record experiences but also to influence the future .

[elleluv]

You get the flu, it simply has to run its course. I think the best explanation is that americans are far more likely to get flu shots and have some sort of immunity against it.

Now, I am not saying a total immunity, more of a "if you get it, it won't be as severe as someone who has never had a shot" got it. The flu going around is a hybrid of different flu's, so it is possible that a shot you got last year, or five years ago, might help. Health officials are not sure and they are looking into it.

Mexico rarely does flu vaccines. One article said that they are sending vaccines for health workers and they are trying to get 1 million doses of tamiflu to Mexio City. For a city of 20 million, that is a drop in the bucket.

One reason for the young being affected could be that us oldsters contracted a strain of the flu similar to what is go around a long, long time ago and have at least a partial immunity to it.

 

 

I actually read in an article last night that they are recommending treatment with anti-virals for this particular strain of flu...

[NEW 2 CRUISIN]

TODAY'S PHRASE THAT PAYS:

 

"Ravaging Mutation"

 

It's a keeper!

 

;)

[elleluv]

So my other question is does anyone know or heard why the people who got it in Mexico died and the people in the US are not? I wonder what the fatality rate is for this flu? Is it just a flu with regular flu type symptoms and what makes it fatal vs inconvenient.

 

 

The number of people in Mexico reported with "flu-like symptoms" was reported in one article I looked at as 1300... they've had 81 deaths... using those numbers (and who knows how accurate they are) you come up with a fatality rate of 6% in Mexico.

[rubytue]

While one must be vigilant, you can't be alarmist, yet. There are now cases in NY and Minnesota, and all probably caused by travel to Mexico via airplane.

20 confirmed cases in the US, at of this 0900 this morning (CA, KS, OH, NY, and TX). None in Minnesota. source: http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/investigation.htm Also, there are now suspected cases in New Zealand (the WHO has only confirmed the US and Mexico cases).

 

BTW, airplane travel didn't cause the flu. Becoming infected caused it, airplane travel just brought it here. With global travel the way it is, its very hard to keep something as infectious as an airborne flu localized. Why has ebola never become the global virus it was once feared - it never made it to airborne transmission and tended to kill folks too quickly for them to spread it.

 

It appears to already be doing human-to-human transmission, as mentioned above by Toto2Kansas. The CDC briefing today said airborne human-to-human and pig-to-human, but not by ingesting pork products (good, cause I had bacon this morning :D).

[leoandhugh]

"outbreak" here in SanDiego is not serious yet - just a few people and a couple more in Imperial Valley. No deaths. Mexico City with almost 20million people, many of whom live in poverty is an epidemic waiting to happen. They even cancelled all Roman Catholic Masses in all the churches in Mexico City which is a sure sign of how seriously they regard this.

[SherriZ366]

I actually read in an article last night that they are recommending treatment with anti-virals for this particular strain of flu...

The press is reporting that anti-virals are effective for this strain, which is good. Some flu viruses are resistent to the anti-virals.

[MDSue]

You get the flu, it simply has to run its course. I think the best explanation is that americans are far more likely to get flu shots and have some sort of immunity against it.

Now, I am not saying a total immunity, more of a "if you get it, it won't be as severe as someone who has never had a shot" got it. The flu going around is a hybrid of different flu's, so it is possible that a shot you got last year, or five years ago, might help. Health officials are not sure and they are looking into it.

Mexico rarely does flu vaccines. One article said that they are sending vaccines for health workers and they are trying to get 1 million doses of tamiflu to Mexio City. For a city of 20 million, that is a drop in the bucket.

One reason for the young being affected could be that us oldsters contracted a strain of the flu similar to what is go around a long, long time ago and have at least a partial immunity to it.

The scary thing about this flu strain is that it appears to be a combination of typical human and animal [swine] flu. This is not a strain that people were immunized against and therefore everyone has less immunity from.

The county in which I live and work has done numerous trainings in this kind of outbreak- before the worry was mostly a bird flu affecting humans. Hopefully this outbreak will not turn into one of the worst-case scenarios that governments fear.

I think that luckily for most Americans, quick treatment will make it more of a nuisance than a life-threatening event, but definitely an outbreak worth watching.

I honestly never could understand why obviously ill people are allowed to fly on an airplane- potentially carrying their germs from place to place. A few years back I was on a flight next to a very sick and feverish person, who was coughing the whole time. I would have been really ticked if my vacation was ruined by picking up their illness.

[CanTex]

There is obviously no explanation yet as to why it is more lethal in Mexico vs. the U.S. Mexico, with over a 1,000 cases obviously has a much large case base... the U.S. base so far is too small to make a legitimate comparison. Maybe the difference is immediacy of health care, use of antivirals sooner, greater proportion of the population is vaccinated against flu strains generally, etc.

 

The more interesting question to me is why this seems to be affecting a narrower age band, and not those traditionally at higher risk. My speculation is that many people over 50 in the U.S. do get flu vaccines each year (standard recommendation), and some form of Type A virus is always in the mix. Perhaps there is at least some partial immunity from this, and why this is hitting the middle-aged population in the U.S. Who knows... I'm sure we'll be hearing a lot in the hours, days and weeks to come.

 

For anyone with travel plans anytime soon (me included), this is worrisome.

[Mydnite]

A lot of countries do not immunize against flu, even here in the UK it is usually those who are over 65 or those who have a compromised immune system that are immunized. However, according to the CDC existing human flu immunizations are not useful in resisting swine flu

 

Found this for anyone who wants to know more.

http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/key_facts.htm

[JBert]

With the recent "panic" of this swine flu thing, whats the chance that RCCL will cut Cozumel, or any other Mexico stop on its trips?

[eroller]

With the recent "panic" of this swine flu thing, whats the chance that RCCL will cut Cozumel, or any other Mexico stop on its trips?

 

 

I don't how likely cutting a port is, but I leave on LIBERTY OF THE SEAS this Saturday and I would be quite happy to cut Cozumel and have another sea day. I'm not a big fan of Cozumel anyway.

 

Ernie

[TBSCruiser]

Most of the issues are in Mexico City not anywhere the Cozumel.

[JBert]

True, but cases have been found in New York - whats to say it couldn't find its way over to Cozumel.

[TBSCruiser]

True, but cases have been found in New York - whats to say it couldn't find its way over to Cozumel.

 

It hasn't currently so I doubt they will cancel the port. Sorry but I think there might be some overreaction here. There are people sick in every port on any given day and they stop. Unless there was a major outbreak in Cozumel in the days preceding your cruise I doubt they would cancel.

 

In NY there are 8 confirmed case out of how many millions?????

[shelby_36]

I'm more concerned with the cruise ship itself. One person gets on that ship with the flu and we will all end up with it. We are going to really watch the progression of this. The CDC has declared a Public Health Emergency in the US.

[TBSCruiser]

I'm more concerned with the cruise ship itself. One person gets on that ship with the flu and we will all end up with it. We are going to really watch the progression of this. The CDC has declared a Public Health Emergency in the US.

 

 

there are 20 cases nationwide, they declared the emergency to have extra powers if need be. They even stated that this was an overreaction but they wanted to err on the side of caution.

[Aquahound]

With the recent "panic" of this swine flu thing, whats the chance that RCCL will cut Cozumel, or any other Mexico stop on its trips?

 

As of right now, the chances are extremely minimal. As stated, the CDC is making a preemptive strike in case of a full blown outbreak.

 

If swine flu becomes common in the coastal tourist ports, I'm sure the cruise lines will start making other plans. All it takes is one sick pilot, inspector, or any number of people the thousands of passengers would come in contact with in one of those ports to infect the whole ship.

[MrPete]

Just to let you know, Mayor Blumberg says they still have not decided to close NY schools, despite having 8 to 10 cases. (he just now spoke, so this is as of almost Noon, Sunday)

 

Posting this without a source, or a reliable source isnt helping anyone. Whatever source you read it in, now you know they are not very good. The information on closing NY schools wasnt correct you posted.

 

 

School will be closed at least for the next two days.

[Mark_K]

With the recent "panic" of this swine flu thing, whats the chance that RCCL will cut Cozumel, or any other Mexico stop on its trips?

About the same that Mexico will not let the ship stop due to the outbreaks in the US.