miched

Very tragic. I would suggest finishing your cruise. Going home isn’t going to help or do anything for him. In fact it might make him feel worse knowing that you left the cruise. Also leaving in another port may cause you more grief and aggravation than staying, plus the rest of your group needs the support of each other. 🌊🚢🇺🇸🌅

If you look at his website and read about him he is very high level. I think he also consults to the gaming industry. If you sign up for his emails he does a lot of exotic bucket list travel stuff. Recently he was at the “Burning Man”. He sends out one email per week. Happy cruising 🌊🚢🇺🇸🌅

I get emails from a person that goes by the Wizard of Odds. He was recently on the Celebrity Reflection and attended Deal or No Deal. Here is his evaluation. Here is a link to his website that also gives the odds to many and almost all gaming and also strategy. https://wizardofodds.com There is also a link at the bottom to Time Play. They are the developers for many of the games played on cruise ships. It is another interesting link and shows how much the cruise lines make off of the games https://wizardofodds.com Happy cruising 🌊🚢🇺🇸🌅 On October 2023 aboard the cruise ship Celebrity Reflection, I attended a Deal or No Deal game show. I took pictures and saved one of my cards to analyze when I got back home. This newsletter shall be that analysis. On the day of game, cards cost $15 each. However, you could purchase four for $50, for an average of $12.50 per card, a small economy of scale. I know there was some incentive to buy cards long before the day of embarkation, but I don’t recall the details. Without knowing the value of the game, but figuring it was probably a very negative expected value, I didn’t buy any cards until the day of the game. My motive for buying cards the day of the game was largely the entertainment value. The game was divided into two sessions. In each session a card was randomly and electronically picked from all those in play. The card holder was then invited to the stage to play. This above image shows cruise director Angela and the lucky player of game 1. The game on the ship played just like that on the television show, except there were 20 cases instead of 26 and the prizes were lower. Banker offers were about 90% of the average of the unopened cases. There actually was a veiled banker, who I recognized as another member of the staff who sometimes filled in for Angela in her duties as cruise director. The picture above shows the game mid-state. The lit amounts on the left and right show those still in play. The rest were in already opened cases. After the traditional game was played, the same player got a chance at the Banker’s Wheel. I was told this was a fair wheel, with a 50% chance at a free cruise. The other 50% were casino match play chips of $25, $50, $100 or $250. They did not state anything on the type or value of the “free cruise.” The rules on the back said, “If the free Cruise is offered as a prize, the itinerary, length and accommodation is determined by the Cruise line and does not include air, transfers, hotel, taxes and gratuities, or any other fees applicable to the cruise.” Having won or earned four cruises in Las Vegas, I can say that they are generally the lowest level cabin and they blackout all the best dates. The image above shows the Banker’s Wheel. Finally, every card had a chance to win consolation prizes. These cards had 20 cases with the same prizes as used in the game, which were randomly shuffled behind the flaps on the card. Players in the audience didn’t have to worry about opening the flaps and keeping score as the computer knew the location of every prize on every card and who owned every card. After each set of case openings, the screen showed the players in strong contention for any prizes. The image above shows the consolation prizes according to the number of matches between the player’s card and the location of the prizes in the game. In this update, partially through a game, 50 cards had one match and 15 had two. The image above is of a typical card. Each case had a flap revealing one of the 20 possible prizes. My analysis of the game depends on some information I don’t know, in particular the number of competing cards and the value of the cruise. It is easy to say that the average of the cases is $155.33. This is the value of the base game, assuming the player never accepts a below-value banker offer. I roughly estimate there were 300 cards in play. That would give each card a value per game of $155.30/300 = 4.14 cents. To analyze the Banker’s Wheel, we need to know the value of the free cruise. If we generously put the free cruise value at $2,000 and assume full value of the casino match play, then the value of that element of each game is $1,053.13, which is significantly more than the base game. If we divide that by the 300 estimated cards in play, the value of each card per game is 28.08 cents. Analyzing the consolation prizes for matching prizes on the play cards is a famous problem in mathematics, usually known as the Secret Santa problem. It stems of the office game where everybody in the office is assigned a random person to give a gift to. The way the question is usually stated is what is the probability that any specified number of people draw their own name. In this case, we have to analyze the probability of 2 to 20 matches. The exact probabilities are beyond the scope of this newsletter. Perhaps I’ll write another newsletter in the future about that (but probably won’t). For now, we will have to go with estimates, which should be very close. If you are interested in the exact math, it has been discussed in my forum at Wizard of Vegas The following table shows my estimate probability of 2 or more matches, the associated prize, and the expected win for each possible outcome. The lower right cell shows an expected win of $3.20 per card per game. Matches Probability Win Return 8 or more 0.000010 $ 5,000 $ 0.05 7 0.000073 $ 500 $ 0.04 6 0.000511 $ 400 $ 0.20 5 0.003066 $ 200 $ 0.61 4 0.015328 $ 50 $ 0.77 3 0.061313 $ 10 $ 0.61 2 0.183940 $ 5 $ 0.92 1 0.367879 $ - $ - 0 0.367879 $ - $ - Total 1.000000 $ 3.20 To review, I get a value of $0.04 for the base game, $0.28 for the Dealer’s Wheel and $3.53 for the consolation prizes, for a total of $3.53. Recall they played through two games, so double the total expected win to $7.06. At a cost of $12.50 per card (buying four for $50), the expected return is 56.48%. In other words, a house edge of 43.52%. If there were any no-shows, it would increase the value. However, with the vast majority of the value in the consolation prizes, the number of cards in play doesn’t really matter very much in terms of the game value. It should be noted that Angela said they wouldn’t credit any free play until some hours after the show and to check with the concierge desk about it. I doubt many people did, as this was the last full day of the cruise. I never did check if I won any free play, although my name was not listed as being in contention towards the end of either game. I would also like to note that the same person was called to play both games! The second time, he sent his wife up. I later asked him how many cards he had in play, to which he answered five. Overall, the game was very well done. The hostess, Angela, did an outstanding job. I had a fun time as I think Mrs. Wizard and my friend who I cruised with did as well. Would I play this game a second time? Probably not, but as a fan of game shows, it’s worth doing once despite the game offering about the same value as a lottery ticket. The image above shows the full rules. For more information, visit Timeplay.com, the makers of this and other multi-player games for cruise ships. Game Odds & StrategiesGame CalculatorsGambling Info Play for FunGambling OnlineAsk the Wizard

10 day cruise 1 extra day of points. 3 day cruise 1 extra day of points. Doesn’t seem to be a fair incentive. Happy cruising 🌊🚢🇺🇸🌅

We had Vinod many cruises. We is fantastic. Why didn’t you have breakfast, and lunch in a Luminae? Happy cruising 🌊🚢🇺🇸🌅

I dont know what that celebritycrusier is and can’t get rid of it I got a reply about 1 week later. It was a email and the header read: “ Do not reply @ CelebrityCrusies .com Agent and Guest invoices for reservation ID…. it look like another promotion and also had our cruise summary. Scrolling down to the bottom was a PDF that showed the OBC when opened. I saved the email and also took a screen shot. Check your junk mail happy cruising 🌊🚢🇺🇸🌅

Deleted. Wrong forum

I also never mention or ask anyone about Captain Club status or anything about Cruise Critic. There have been a few times when someone would say as if bragging that they are members of Cruise Critic as if that makes them an authority on cruising. I just let it blow over and ignore the comment as if it doesn’t mean anything to me. The few times we attended the mix and mingle it was anything but. People would plant themselves in a seat and keep to themselves. I would wander around and try to meet some and they would act as if I was annoying them. No longer attend any. Don’t need to listen to the officers or staff telling us how much they value our loyalty and etc. Happy cruising 🌊🚢🇺🇸🌅

Yes but you would have to pay for it. Happy cruising 🌊🚢🇺🇸🌅

Maybe it will help free up more places at the regular bars during those hours. Personally the comment about being able to associate with other elite and above guests claiming to have the same passion for sailing doesn’t apply to me. I am vey content and happy meeting and talking to anyone even if they aren’t Elite or above. 😱 Happy crusing 🌊🚢🇺🇸🌅

We did it last year. We didn’t get any book . The sommelier recommend a wine. Gave me a sample. I told him I had the premium package and asked if it was covered. He said yes. It is $10. I said it is ok and agreed to it. The wine was ok but nothing special. After I would drink about 1/2 he would top it off. The last time he came by to top it off I said I didn’t want anymore as I going to have a desert wine and didn’t finish that glass. As things were wrapping up he came by and gave us a bill. I looked at it and asked about the charge. He said you had 5 glasses of wine that was $10 over the premium limit. The bill was $60 with the gratuity added in. I signed it as I didn’t want to make a disturbance. I seen others at the table also receiving a bill. I didn’t really pay attention to what they were drinking. The next day I went to Guest Relations and told them about the situation and they removed the charge and said they would have a talk to the sommelier and to make sure he is more clear. Happy cruising 🌊🚢🇺🇸🌅

When we were on the Beyond in Mar the ice cream was free. I went to use my Captain Club benefit for one free scoop of Gelato and was told it wasn’t needed as the gelato was free. They only had one flavor per day and honestly I couldn’t tell the difference between the gelato or the regular ice cream. There were always long lines waiting to be served. Happy cruising 🌊🚢🇺🇸🌅

The shops are closed when in any port. They are all open on sea days, and after the ship leaves a port. The casino is also closed when in a port. Sometimes it does have an exemption if staying overnight. Some ports also have restrictions on bars being open. Happy cruising 🌊🚢🇺🇸🌅

I could never understand having to wear a suit or tuxedo for formal night. I am in the Caribbean. I take a shower and still sweating when I get out. Dress up in a suit. Go to dinner and they serve the messiest dinners there is, Lobster. If it isn’t messy why do many places give you a bib? Then on some cruise lines after dinner everyone starts waving their napkin above their head flinging all of the scraps on it around the dining room. Classy. Years ago on formal night I would dress in a suit. Walk into the dining room and take off my jacket. After dinner go to the cabin and change into something more comfortable. People would say if you don’t want to get dressed dine in the buffet. OK. I go to the buffet dressed in shorts. After dinner am I now supposed to wear a suit to sit in a dark theater or at some lounge? I don’t think so. Now it is chic night. Whatever that means. Here is the evolution of fashion. https://www.linkedin.com/posts/alexey-navolokin-5420563_innovation-ai-fashion-ugcPost-7118239604528275456-TeLY? utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios If this is the crowd X is after they need to change their dress code. Happy cruising 🌊🚢🇺🇸🌅

Old joke, and daddy joke to pull on anyone. Do you know the difference between a shower curtain and toilet paper? Answer: No. So you are the one that been using our shower curtain. 😱 Happy cruising 🌊🚢🇺🇸🌅

Thanks for the link. Very good review. Happy cruising 🌊🚢🇺🇸🌅

We were on the the beyond. I don’t know about it being limited. There were a lot in attendance and they broke us up into groups. It was free and nothing gained or nothing lost. Like any tour it would depend on who the guide is. It is worth taking but I think it was a little over exaggerated about some of the costs and construction. I worked in construction management and if it cost as much as they claim for getting some of the stuff on board I think they need a new construction management contractor. Happy cruising 🌊🚢🇺🇸🌅

I would think that the men would wear a tuxedo and the women expensive evening gowns as shown in the promos, and also being under 30. 🙄🤗😱 There is no dress code. It is an area on, and viewing the lawn, and those in alcoves across from you. I don’t understand why anyone would pay for an area to look at the lawn. There are many areas with chairs that have the view of the lawn and sea for free I go on a ship for the sea and that is what I want to see. I can look at grass at home but not the sea Happy cruising 🌊🚢🇺🇸🌅

Be sure to go to the Music and Mixology, and Create and Pour. Both are fun experiences. RSVP required. Happy cruising 🌊🚢🇺🇸🌅

MSC Yacht Seabourn Oceania Azamara All have a better value than a cruise on Celebrity. I know that I could cruise on X in the dregs for a cheap price but at my stage in life I want to enjoy the finer things and not live like I had to when I was younger. I also don’t believe in throwing away my hard earned money for value not received. Happy cruising 🌊🚢🇺🇸🌅

During our last cruise in a SS we had contact with our butler at least 3 times per day. Not that we really requested or “demanded” anything. It seemed as if he was always there to accommodate us. He offered many services that we wouldn’t have thought of and made our cruising experience fantastic justifying paying the premium for a suite over AQ. Our next cruise is in a SS. Paid 50% more than AQ. Hopefully it will be worth the extra cost. If not we will be going back to AQ or a veranda. Other than the dining accommodations to me the only difference is the cabin size and the extra perks. Many of the perks have been eliminated in the suites so that may become a thing of the past. Let someone else spend their money for the illusion. When it comes to push and shove I can survive the rest of my life without paying outrageous prices for a cruise.. There are many other options to see the world without the restrictions of being on a ship. Happy cruising 🌊🚢🇺🇸🌅

We were quarantined due to Covid. We got free on demand. There wasn’t anything we wanted to watch. Same with cable at home with the premium channels. There are very few movie we want to watch. We have them because of the tier we need to watch the regular channel we like. Most of the time I was on the balcony enjoying the sea while reading on my IPad using the WiFi. It wasn’t bad as we were in a suite, got butler service, got any drinks we wanted and etc. The main problem was we lost our taste. Some things didn’t taste like they should have. One bonus was we really didn’t have to get dressed to go for our meals. We got room service and just lounged around in very comfortable clothing. I can’t stand watching the news channels. I sit in my man cave watching old reruns while my wife watches the idiotic morning shows, and news. There aren’t very any if any new movies being made today that we want to see. Happy cruising 🌊🚢🇺🇸🌅

The gratuities went up from $21 to $23/day/pp for suites. The dedicated butler was eliminated The gratuities are no longer included in the perks for suites. That adds another cost of $46/day to the cost. I was checking a cruise I booked in a suite to see if there was a price decrease. The price has really increased and there is no SBC. She said she is giving the passengers what they want???? I don’t ever remember making a comment that I wanted to pay more, don’t include the gratuities, and eliminate the dedicated butler and SBC. Happy cruising 🌊🚢🇺🇸🌅

Depending on the feed where the ship is located. If in the Caribbean you should get some games but not all. it may be on the TV in your cabin The Casino bar. The Social Craft bar. If it is the SB it is usually in the theater and maybe the large screen on the pool deck We tried streaming football games on our IPads. It doesn’t work. It keeps breaking up. If the games are that important then you should stay home. I use to think that football was the most important thing at the time. Missed a lot to watch them. Now it is really doesn’t matter. It is just entertainment. I knew about every team, who won what and etc. Today even though I watched the games I don’t remember who won the last SB or who played in it. There is more to life. 🤗 Tell you husband to enjoy the cruise that he paid for and not worry about watching a game. The out will be what it is and 10 year from now it won’t matter Happy cruising 🌊🚢🇺🇸🌅

Here is a video showing the evolution of fashion. I don’t know about the evolution part. It seems as if we are going backwards and downhill. It lasts about 17 seconds https://www.linkedin.com/posts/alexey-navolokin-5420563_innovation-ai-fashion-ugcPost-7118239604528275456-TeLY?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios happy cruising 🌊🚢🇺🇸🌅