NCL stock down on mixed earnings results.

[Diane123boys]

Oh good, more expert cruise critic stock analysis. [emoji23]

 

 

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On point!! Sitting back with the bowl of popcorn:D :rolleyes:

[Gershep]

First sentence has nailed it. Supply and Demand is one of the fundamental laws of capitalism. Try to beat it and you come a cropper (unless you have a perfect monopoly - which NCL does not).

 

All that FDR seems to have achieved so far, is to undo the reputational improvements that Sheehan was working on (and to lose a lot of previously loyal customers).

 

 

I so agree!

[AdoraBelle]

Yep! Here it is:

 

 

 

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showt...2373703&page=3

 

 

 

As far as getting an extra $50 out of us.......it's not happening. We've already decided we're not spending an extra penny on this cruise. DH always gets in on poker tournaments, but he said he wasn't going to this cruise. We're both really fed up with all the changes since we booked this cruise over a year ago.

 

 

I was thinking about this earlier--despite the fact that I still cruise NCL (entirely for the "solo" product at this point), just observing their attitude towards customers over the last year has made me more stubbornly determined not to spend on any of those little extras when I sail. I'm not even going to buy their ridiculous internet package on my upcoming cruise, and I'm a person who very much likes to STAY connected on my cruises.

[fshagan]

If cruise lines can't make profits with oil in the low $40s it doesn't bode well going forward.

 

To NCLH in particular, it's clear from reading this board regularly what the problem is: Norwegian wants to charge Princess prices for Carnival product.

 

I was reading one of the annual reports for a cruise line - I don't recall if it was NCL or RCI - and was surprised that the fuel cost was just 8% of the total operating expense. So a big reduction in the price of fuel isn't going to have as much impact as you would think.

 

NCL hasn't been competitive on the itineraries I've been looking at lately, but others have found deals within $1 to $2 pppd compared to other lines. They are all trying to dig out from the deep discounting over the past 8 years and cruising will cost more going forward. There are still deals to be found. The antics of NCL has us looking at Celebrity and RCL as well for our next cruise.

[Siora7777]

I do think the market is saturated. A lot of new ships from all the cruise lines. I think what FDR did was lose the trust of many loyal cruisers. I used to pull up NCL and look for cruises first before any other cruise line because I felt their prices were more affordable and I enjoyed their product. But after FDR took over I found for less money I could cruise RCI and get a better ship, better itineraries with better or more ports, free room service, lobster in the dining room and good customer service.

 

What he did was alienated some of the customers who either started looking at other companies to cruise with, some have chosen to stop cruising all together, and others have chosen an alternative vacation because of the nickel and diming and constant changes.

 

There is not one change he has made to this cruise line that I view as beneficial to the consumer. I loved my Getaway cruise but I haven't seen a deal in the last year or so that was too good to pass up. In fact, the prices have made it an easy no. I don't want to cruise in an inside cabin and even those are higher. I don't really enjoy the older ships but those cruises are not a good deal to me either.

 

My next cruise will be my first princess cruise but this year the prices, to me, have gone thru the roof with all the lines except probably CCL. I'm considering Carnival. I enjoy cruising but this next one may be my last for a while because of prices as a whole overall.

 

Every time I have thought to book with NCL I decide not to because I'm tired of the constant changes for an inferior product. I'm probably not the only one.

[Shawnino]

I was reading one of the annual reports for a cruise line - I don't recall if it was NCL or RCI - and was surprised that the fuel cost was just 8% of the total operating expense. So a big reduction in the price of fuel isn't going to have as much impact as you would think.

 

 

True, fuel costs are only 8% of the total, but it's one of the most variable costs. Wage bills, food bills, port taxes, ship maintenance are comparatively steady.

 

Suppose just for sake of argument you're owning shares in Business X and your ultimate return is 10%. Now suppose one of your variable costs doubles over the course of a few quarters. That comes right off the bottom line.

 

What I'm saying is that if cruiselines can't do well with oil at $40, what happens when it goes to $80 one day? Either:

--They run at a loss

or

--They raise prices (directly, or 'fuel surcharge').

 

Running at a loss isn't a long term option, so they raise prices.

 

This doesn't affect every passenger, but does affect price-sensitive passengers.

 

Price-sensitive passengers will either

--Stop buying the high-margin stuff like photos, and ship-sponsored shore ex

and/or

--Downgrade cabins (used to get a minisuite, now going guarantee-balcony)

 

...or cruise less.

 

None of which is good for business when you need the ships fairly full and the pax doing high-margin activities. FDR said as much: he wants that extra, high margin $50 spend.

[collectingcoke]

That's the only thing money wise about NCL that's down. Certainly not their prices or value.

[fstuff1]

I blame the water ban

 

+1

 

how has the stock done since Del Rio took over?

[fstuff1]

Price is now at a 52 week low - less than $38 per share.

 

hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

glad i dumped the stock at $64/share

[JohnIreland]

+1

 

how has the stock done since Del Rio took over?

 

 

Price today : $37.30

Price Jan 9th 2015 : $45.20

 

Has the be 100% the water thing.

[fstuff1]

$100 OBC, for shareholders of 100 shares or more. Not a bad benefit, and available every time you sail.

 

is it available to single cruisers in an Inside room ('free' via CAS)?

Edited August 10, 2016 by fstuff1

[KarlChilders]

is it available to single cruisers in an Inside room ('free' via CAS)?

 

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-5WOY6H/2605301921x0x681828/4AF17A4F-D574-4094-BDE8-5AD5FA288377/benefitfaq.pdf

 

 

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-5WOY6H/2605301921x0x681823/FC8230FE-82FE-4331-B5F6-28A7E543D773/benefitoffer.pdf

[fstuff1]

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-5WOY6H/2605301921x0x681828/4AF17A4F-D574-4094-BDE8-5AD5FA288377/benefitfaq.pdf

 

 

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-5WOY6H/2605301921x0x681823/FC8230FE-82FE-4331-B5F6-28A7E543D773/benefitoffer.pdf

thx.

 

sigh:

excludes Reduced Rate programs (e.g. employee rates, interline, friends/family rates, vendor rates, cruises taken via cruise credit certificate)

 

used a future cruise certificate on my holloween bahamas cruise :(

[kjquilts]

thx.

 

sigh:

excludes Reduced Rate programs (e.g. employee rates, interline, friends/family rates, vendor rates, cruises taken via cruise credit certificate)

 

used a future cruise certificate on my holloween bahamas cruise :(

 

 

We have received Shareholder OBC on cruises booked using Cruise Reward as deposit if that is what you're referring to in the bolded area above.

[backsbanny]

Mr Del Rio is not happy at all...Guess what mr...we are not happy at all as well..You took a company that we loved and changed everything for the worse...and you still seem to not understand what went wrong!!!Basically you sent away the core of ncl meaning you sent away your most loyal clients by implimenting all these ridiculous changes all these months...Me a former ncl cheerleader as i would be described on the board some time ago am loonikg forward to my upcoming Celebrity Cruise next month...I was booked on the Jade initially but then i cancelled...my vacation dollars webt to celebrity

[gwsster]

The value in cruising isn't there this year for us. More land vacations and stay-cations.

The cruising itineraries are the same routes and there are more land based vacations that are a better value for this cruiser. I still love cruising and will go again in the future.

 

 

Looks like Europe is the weak link for profits due to the weak pound and North Americans staying away according to the articles I've read this morning. Here is one of many articles:

[Sizzlechest]

I'm giving Mount Airy Lodge in the Poconos a test run real soon. Doing Dinsey next year. If I do a cruise again, I might do Celebrity or one of the other cruise lines that sail out of NY area. (Maybe NJ for RCCL.) NCL lost me way before the water and drink price increases.

[lettienets]

I cancelled 2 NCL cruises and did a bus tour in Europe in June. Loved it and am planning another. Next cruises are 2 b2b Carnival Vista Athens to NY in Oct. Not sure when I will do another NCL. Have future cruise certificates. But don't care if they run out.

 

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[Coastalbreezes]

is it available to single cruisers in an Inside room ('free' via CAS)?

 

I cruise solo via CAS all the time and have never had a problem getting the shareholder OBC.

 

Tracy

[AdoraBelle]

I cancelled 2 NCL cruises and did a bus tour in Europe in June. Loved it and am planning another. Next cruises are 2 b2b Carnival Vista Athens to NY in Oct. Not sure when I will do another NCL. Have future cruise certificates. But don't care if they run out.

 

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You can eBay them.

[janpo]

We're doing Disneyworld this year, even though we have offers from CAS.

 

Maybe next year another cruise in our future.

[dexddd]

One thing that crossed my mind several months back and again recently is maybe some/all of the actions in the last 18 months are geared towards "prettying up" NCL for an ultimate sale.

[Froggitt]

One thing that crossed my mind several months back and again recently is maybe some/all of the actions in the last 18 months are geared towards "prettying up" NCL for an ultimate sale.

 

Occupancy, onboaard spend and share price all tanking doesn't sound particularly prettifying. Could have got almost double the sale amount a year or so ago.

[newmexicoNita]

Looks like Europe is the weak link for profits due to the weak pound and North Americans staying away according to the articles I've read this morning. Here is one of many articles:

 

https://www.thestreet.com/story/13669165/1/norwegian-cruise-nclh-stock-drops-on-q2-revenue-profit-forecast.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

 

I didn't read the article but I do know RCI is down this year about the same % as NCL and Carnival, not as much but they have had problems. My daughter, who is retired from Sabre, as is her husband, said Sabre is getting hit pretty hard as well. It appears the there are several issues affecting the travel industry period right now. I don't know about hotels, if they are suffering as well? I will add a positive side; as of not too long ago (a few months) our financial advisor, one of, if not the largest company in America still considered NCL and other cruise lines a very good investment over the long run: I think out 5 they gave the cruise industry a 4 or 4 plus.

[newmexicoNita]

Mr Del Rio is not happy at all...Guess what mr...we are not happy at all as well..You took a company that we loved and changed everything for the worse...and you still seem to not understand what went wrong!!!Basically you sent away the core of ncl meaning you sent away your most loyal clients by implimenting all these ridiculous changes all these months...Me a former ncl cheerleader as i would be described on the board some time ago am loonikg forward to my upcoming Celebrity Cruise next month...I was booked on the Jade initially but then i cancelled...my vacation dollars webt to celebrity

 

oh for heaven's sake, this has nothing to do with the stock market. RCI is suffering as well; as is Carnival, etc. It has to do with world affairs. You may not be happy, many of us do not like all the changes but the market is controlled by more than a few not caring for the product. As much as we are hearing complaints here on CC, my travel agent says her NCL sales are not down anymore than other lines.