I Thought Celebrity's Changes Were Driven By Changing Demographics - Not True

[Baron Barracuda]

11 hours ago, mnocket said:

Good points.  I did a little more research on disposable income, vacation spending, and vacation expectations.  There are indeed statistics that show that millenials vacation spending is higher than boomers (albeit only marginally higher).  That was a surprise to me. 

 

That's because we are covering their housing costs.  Late 20's, still single, no kids, and still living in my basement rent free.  Lucky to get them to pay for their phone and auto insurance.

[cruising cockroach]

1 hour ago, Baron Barracuda said:

 

That's because we are covering their housing costs.  Late 20's, still single, no kids, and still living in my basement rent free.  Lucky to get them to pay for their phone and auto insurance.

 

About a decade ago, 27 was said to be the new 18.  I've heard that's it has increase considerably since.

 

If you look at Japan (and it travel trend) over the past 2 decades, you notice something similar.  A lot of single working younger women who travel a lot because they live at home (for different reasons than the contemporary one(s) in the U.S.) nd have lots of disposable income as a result.

[Orator]

IMHO:The changes in Celebrity's business model will come back to bite them in the bilges. 

[americandream]

My wife and I are Gen X (mid-40s). We cruise 1-2 times per year and intend to keep doing so indefinitely. Hopefully we will be able to increase the frequency with retirement. On those 1-2 cruises, we usually convince 2-4 other couples to join us who are typically new to cruising. We have loved Celebrity with a few minor irritations where we feel X misses the mark. I'm talking about things like playing music that nobody of any age 35 or older who is on the ship and actually footing the bill wants to hear and at a volume that inhibits socializing at what is otherwise the best place on the ship (Martini Bar). Another major irritation is Evening Chic (I think of it as Evening Apathetic). There are other irritations, but these are the two that come immediately to mind. We have tolerated these irritations so far. To my point...

 

As of now we have absolutely zero interest in the Edge Class without some significant changes. Eden, the IV staterooms, and the lack of bars are the major turnoffs. If X screws up the M and S Class ships with the "Revolution" we will be taking our business elsewhere. MSC Yacht Club and/or HAL will likely be the benefactors.

Edited January 3, 2019 by americandream

[RDC1]

I would not say that Celebrity is  responding to changing national demographics, instead they are trying to change their passenger demographics by trying to appeal to age groups that have not traditionally cruised in large numbers.  Basically trying to capture an age group for which there in not much competition for in the cruise industry.  In many ways the same group that Virgin Cruises is focusing on.

 

 

[Tao Diva]

Given the feedback here, I'll be surprised if Celebrity keeps things like the Eden show long enough for my 2020 cruise but I hope they do. I understand I'm in the minority here but I really like what I hear about the EDGE. 

 

     I'm an intorverted, New Age, crystal wearing, Si-Fi watching, Fantasy reading, herb growing, tea-totaling, yoga practicing, organic eating, meditating, Gen-X, apple fan-girl, Trekie, Whovian, Potter-head, Ren-fairy, Brown Coat, Slayer. I'm used to hearing the stuff i'm "into" made fun of. I enjoy it anyway.

 

     Occasionally something like the EDGE is dreamed up that is a good fit for people like me but it doesn't last. The geeks and nerds were just never a large enough group (with enough money) to make catering to us profitable. But we are now a growing community with more disposable income than in the past.  Maybe the EDGE is the ship intended to pick up this stray market segment since no one else in the cruise industry really seems to want us (except for that once-a-year Star Trek sailing).

     I hope Celebrity can keep this experiment going long enough for me to come play. I want to visit Club Andromeda, Eden, and meditate in the Crystalarium. I want to have a room that my pasty skin can stay out of the sun but I can still open a window to commune with the sea (without really having to go outside). I want to make a cozy nest of Kelly Hoppin pillows on the floor in front of the IV and read. 

 

All that said, the cruise community has been very good to me. I enjoy cruising and cruise people are largely a fun group. I "get" the seduction of sea and the appeal of traditional cruising. I accept that the majority of the cruising community doesn't like "weird" so when something like the EDGE comes along, it usually doesn't last long. I'd like to jump on it sooner, but 2020 is my first opportunity and I hope some of the weird still remains for me when I get there.

[hcat]

On 1/2/2019 at 10:14 AM, Host Jazzbeau said:

 

Not at all.  Celebrity is doing everything right – for Celebrity.  Just not for me.  Looking at it as a customer is different from looking at it as a stockholder.

Wonder what the stockholders think about EDGE reviews and EDEN?

 

[hcat]

21 minutes ago, Tao Diva said:

Given the feedback here, I'll be surprised if Celebrity keeps things like the Eden show long enough for my 2020 cruise but I hope they do. I understand I'm in the minority here but I really like what I hear about the EDGE. 

 

     I'm an intorverted, New Age, crystal wearing, Si-Fi watching, Fantasy reading, herb growing, tea-totaling, yoga practicing, organic eating, meditating, Gen-X, apple fan-girl, Trekie, Whovian, Potter-head, Ren-fairy, Brown Coat, Slayer. I'm used to hearing the stuff i'm "into" made fun of. I enjoy it anyway.

 

     Occasionally something like the EDGE is dreamed up that is a good fit for people like me but it doesn't last. The geeks and nerds were just never a large enough group (with enough money) to make catering to us profitable. But we are now a growing community with more disposable income than in the past.  Maybe the EDGE is the ship intended to pick up this stray market segment since no one else in the cruise industry really seems to want us (except for that once-a-year Star Trek sailing).

     I hope Celebrity can keep this experiment going long enough for me to come play. I want to visit Club Andromeda, Eden, and meditate in the Crystalarium. I want to have a room that my pasty skin can stay out of the sun but I can still open a window to commune with the sea (without really having to go outside). I want to make a cozy nest of Kelly Hoppin pillows on the floor in front of the IV and read. 

 

All that said, the cruise community has been very good to me. I enjoy cruising and cruise people are largely a fun group. I "get" the seduction of sea and the appeal of traditional cruising. I accept that the majority of the cruising community doesn't like "weird" so when something like the EDGE comes along, it usually doesn't last long. I'd like to jump on it sooner, but 2020 is my first opportunity and I hope some of the weird still remains for me when I get there.

 

Not sure there are that many folks just like you to keep  all the berths filled but 

I think everyone will be able to enjoy EDGE once it moderates a bit with a more general appeal. They have always had yoga, great spaces to read and meditate. And so many places to commune with the sea and stars.  Crystal and salt rooms will still be there...Miss the harpists!

 

.

[hcat]

21 minutes ago, Tao Diva said:

Given the feedback here, I'll be surprised if Celebrity keeps things like the Eden show long enough for my 2020 cruise but I hope they do. I understand I'm in the minority here but I really like what I hear about the EDGE. 

 

     I'm an intorverted, New Age, crystal wearing, Si-Fi watching, Fantasy reading, herb growing, tea-totaling, yoga practicing, organic eating, meditating, Gen-X, apple fan-girl, Trekie, Whovian, Potter-head, Ren-fairy, Brown Coat, Slayer. I'm used to hearing the stuff i'm "into" made fun of. I enjoy it anyway.

 

     Occasionally something like the EDGE is dreamed up that is a good fit for people like me but it doesn't last. The geeks and nerds were just never a large enough group (with enough money) to make catering to us profitable. But we are now a growing community with more disposable income than in the past.  Maybe the EDGE is the ship intended to pick up this stray market segment since no one else in the cruise industry really seems to want us (except for that once-a-year Star Trek sailing).

     I hope Celebrity can keep this experiment going long enough for me to come play. I want to visit Club Andromeda, Eden, and meditate in the Crystalarium. I want to have a room that my pasty skin can stay out of the sun but I can still open a window to commune with the sea (without really having to go outside). I want to make a cozy nest of Kelly Hoppin pillows on the floor in front of the IV and read. 

 

All that said, the cruise community has been very good to me. I enjoy cruising and cruise people are largely a fun group. I "get" the seduction of sea and the appeal of traditional cruising. I accept that the majority of the cruising community doesn't like "weird" so when something like the EDGE comes along, it usually doesn't last long. I'd like to jump on it sooner, but 2020 is my first opportunity and I hope some of the weird still remains for me when I get there.

 

Not sure there are that many folks just like you to keep  all the berths filled but 

I think everyone will be able to enjoy EDGE once it moderates a bit with a more general appeal. They have always had yoga, great spaces to read and meditate. And so many places to commune with the sea and stars.  Crystal and salt rooms will still be there...Miss the harpists!

 

.

[Nymich]

On ‎1‎/‎1‎/‎2019 at 2:25 PM, mnocket said:

I have chalked up many of the changes Celebrity is making to their desire to appeal to changes in age demographics.   Essentially a belief that the older demographic (baby boomers) were dying off and the average age of the US population was shifting lower.  Thus there was a clear business driver for Celebrity to shift their focus from retirees and above to the younger, working, demographic. 

 

That was my belief until I looked at the data (link below because we are not supposed to cut-and-paste copyrighted images)

Age Distribution of US Population, 2000 to 2050

 

If this data is correct, my premise of age distribution shifting lower in the future was plain wrong. So the question remains..... Why is Celebrity making changes that seem to indicate that we oldsters are no longer their prime target?  The only answer I can think of is that it is not a matter of age, but culture.  Certainly the millennials et.al. have differing desires, behaviors. etc (which I lump into "culture") than us oldsters.  I guess Celebrity's expectation is that as these people age, their desires will not age to be more like current retirees - instead Celebrity's expectation is that the desires of the younger demographic will remain pretty much the same as they grow older.  I don't know that I agree with this.  I know that what I desired when I was younger was much different than what I desire now.   What do you think?  Is Celebrity (and much of the cruise industry) making a big mistake or is there some other driver for these changes?

The boomers are dying off?   The oldest is like 74 with the youngest 54.

[BNBR]

What changes are you referring to? Just finished my first Celebrity cruise and it's unlikely I'd return. I'm mid 30's and their product didn't appeal to me very well. Seems much more geared towards an older crowd. 

[Maya1234]

20 hours ago, cruising cockroach said:

 

+1.  Unless they were born with a proverbial silver spoon, they're (in the U.S.) mostly up to their eyeballs in higher education debt if they have any post-secondary education.  Tertiary education is no longer affordable for most.  Add in poor full-time/permanent jobs prospects poor mobility compared to previous post-WWII generations.

 

Even those with no debt and high paying jobs seem very cost conscious. My daughter and her BF are in their early 20’s, have a fair amount of money in the bank, no loans, good jobs. But their millennial culture involves bargain hunting. We admittedly spoiled our kids but they don’t assume that they can live the way we provide for them. We just took the kids on X in a sky suite. ( we were in the royal) . They liked it sure. But DD said she’d never pay that much money herself for a cruise. She and BF were planning their vacation for this summer and even though it will be much longer and in Europe, she’s planning on spending less than half of what our 4 day cruise cost. 

 

You can fault millennials for many things but they aren’t spendthrifts. 

[alfredo22]

On 1/2/2019 at 9:56 AM, K12Guy said:

There seems to be so much accurate about your presumption. From what I see of the 20 - 40 crowd these days is very few of them seem to take life seriously and they seem to live "in the moment", as if they will never age and their desires/expectations will not change. It might be that development teams working for the cruise lines are being driven, not by those with experience and knowledge, but by those with recent college degrees who think they know everything. Of course we've all been there, right? We know sometimes, as adult youth, it takes a whack to the forehead to realize we really don't know a lot (in spite of great education) about life. In the meanwhile there is an aging demographic that refuses to sit back and die off, being more active and living life more fully than ever before. It's truly a dichotomy for cruise development teams trying to figure out which demographic will keep their ships full and money in their pockets. 

 

Ironically, in twenty or thirty years, long after this keyboard is silent, someone will be lamenting that the current crop of young adults have unrealistic expectations and the millennial crowd will be groaning about how much they hate the changes that are being made and all the growth toward retrofitting ships to the early 2000 themes, including a new ship that has 'suite preference' staterooms and amenities. But lounge hogs will still be a problem on every ship.

 

So, we will tolerate the changes and enjoy being pampered for our fourteen day fall cruise of New England and Canada, and do everything we can to put up with the very few young adults that actually will be aboard.

 

As the token under-40, I will quote Horace from the 1st century BC below.  I think Celebrity’s goal is merely to gain as many new people while losing as few past cruisers as possible.  Not setting yourself up for the future would be a mistake.  Then again, Eden and loud dining settings might have been a mistake too.

 

Our sires' age was worse than our grandsires'. We, their sons, are more worthless than they; so in our turn we shall give the world a progeny yet more corrupt.

 

http://mentalfloss.com/article/52209/15-historical-complaints-about-young-people-ruining-everything

[cruising cockroach]

2 minutes ago, Maya1234 said:

Even those with no debt and high paying jobs seem very cost conscious. My daughter and her BF are in their early 20’s, have a fair amount of money in the bank, no loans, good jobs. But their millennial culture involves bargain hunting. We admittedly spoiled our kids but they don’t assume that they can live the way we provide for them. We just took the kids on X in a sky suite. ( we were in the royal) . They liked it sure. But DD said she’d never pay that much money herself for a cruise. She and BF were planning their vacation for this summer and even though it will be much longer and in Europe, she’s planning on spending less than half of what our 4 day cruise cost. 

 

You can fault millennials for many things but they aren’t spendthrifts. 

 

I think it depends on the individual.  You just have a naturally-thrifty offspring.  Due to conditioning, a portion of the younger generation (from anecdotal observation) think of what used to be bulk goods such as coffee and tea in cost/portion while older people think of cost in $/weight (I buy my tea - loose-leaf - by weight).  May also be more likely to eat out (but I hardly eat out so cannot observe).  I've heard young people being savvy in coupon clipping though. Of course Gen X and Y, boomers and older all do the same but to what proportion?

 

I suspect cruising is too limiting for the younger, adventurous and more mobile generations (or even for a late boomer like me) who like independent travel. I can see cruising more if my knees or hips wear out and I'm much less mobile and can't move my stuff and myself easily.

 

I suspect X is aiming marketing at the more-affluent crowd that likes a safe environment, controlled experiences and to be wowed and entertained (not me for the latter).

 

I'd go out on a limb and say your offspring would prefer to go backpacking (or bit more upscale) through SE Asia than say, be entertained at casino resort in Vegas?

[Cloudybay]

On 1/2/2019 at 3:02 PM, Baron Barracuda said:

10,000 baby boomers continue to retire every day.  They have free time and disposable income.  In decent health should be able to cruise 15+ years.   If X doesn't want their money Princess, HAL, Oceania, Viking, Regent and others will be happy to take it. 

I am not sure that they don't want boomer's business, but they are trying to expand their appeal. There are still 5 Solstice class ships that are in great condition that Celebrity "traditionalists" can enjoy.  I remember when Celebrity came out with the Solstice and people were bothered by the size of the ship and lack of intimacy. Every change will make some happy, some sad. They were never going to keep building the same ship forever. In 5-7 years, they will develop another ship class that may appeal to another group.

[mnocket]

2 hours ago, Nymich said:

The boomers are dying off?   The oldest is like 74 with the youngest 54.

Yeah, the AVERAGE life expectancy in the US is 78.6 years (it's actually dropped the past few years). I hate to say it, but we boomers dying off.

[mnocket]

4 hours ago, RDC1 said:

I would not say that Celebrity is  responding to changing national demographics, instead they are trying to change their passenger demographics by trying to appeal to age groups that have not traditionally cruised in large numbers.  Basically trying to capture an age group for which there in not much competition for in the cruise industry.  In many ways the same group that Virgin Cruises is focusing on.

 

 

I think you've hit the nail on the head.  I guess Celebrity is betting that any age 50+ customers they lose due to these changes will be more than made up for by the younger customers they attract.  Seem like a risky strategy. In trying to become something for everybody, they risk becoming nothing for anybody.

[hvsteve1]

5 hours ago, americandream said:

My wife and I are Gen X (mid-40s). We cruise 1-2 times per year and intend to keep doing so indefinitely. Hopefully we will be able to increase the frequency with retirement. On those 1-2 cruises, we usually convince 2-4 other couples to join us who are typically new to cruising. We have loved Celebrity with a few minor irritations where we feel X misses the mark. I'm talking about things like playing music that nobody of any age 35 or older who is on the ship and actually footing the bill wants to hear and at a volume that inhibits socializing at what is otherwise the best place on the ship (Martini Bar). Another major irritation is Evening Chic (I think of it as Evening Apathetic). There are other irritations, but these are the two that come immediately to mind. We have tolerated these irritations so far. To my point...

 

As of now we have absolutely zero interest in the Edge Class without some significant changes. Eden, the IV staterooms, and the lack of bars are the major turnoffs. If X screws up the M and S Class ships with the "Revolution" we will be taking our business elsewhere. MSC Yacht Club and/or HAL will likely be the benefactors.

If one of your big gripes is crowding at the Martini Bar, EDGE is your ship.  The Martini Bar is the central and largest venue on the ship.  A lot of people pretty much ignore evening chic.  There was a pretty wide range of music, only not the kind of dance music the older crowd likes.  The bar in EDEN is also pretty interesting and, performers aside, it's a great place to hang out most of the day.  We've gone on our recent "X" cruises with Gen X family members and they love it.  If you're younger, you might have a real issue with life on HAL.

[Host Jazzbeau]

24 minutes ago, mnocket said:

Yeah, the AVERAGE life expectancy in the US is 78.6 years (it's actually dropped the past few years). I hate to say it, but we boomers dying off.

 

That includes infant mortalities. The life expectancy for 74 year olds is quite a bit higher. I just hit 71 and had to start taking RMDs from my retirement accounts. If I understand the math, the IRS thinks I will live 26.5 more years. My mother almost made that number, so maybe they’re right.

[Nymich]

53 minutes ago, mnocket said:

Yeah, the AVERAGE life expectancy in the US is 78.6 years (it's actually dropped the past few years). I hate to say it, but we boomers dying off.

ok fair enough but the oldest still have 4 years left to cruise!

[mnocket]

1 hour ago, Host Jazzbeau said:

 

That includes infant mortalities. The life expectancy for 74 year olds is quite a bit higher. I just hit 71 and had to start taking RMDs from my retirement accounts. If I understand the math, the IRS thinks I will live 26.5 more years. My mother almost made that number, so maybe they’re right.

True.  So I looked it up.  It seems the life expectancy for a 74 year old male in the US is 11.2 years (or age 85) source.  So I guess for a business like a cruise line that builds ships that they expect will have a useful life over twice that time, we boomers are becoming less of a focus.

 

ps   At 71 it seems you still have 13.6 years to go

Edited January 4, 2019 by mnocket

[mnocket]

1 hour ago, Nymich said:

ok fair enough but the oldest still have 4 years left to cruise!

It seems the picture is not a dire as I originally painted.  See Jazbeau's and my posts above.

[Host Jazzbeau]

6 hours ago, hcat said:

Wonder what the stockholders think about EDGE reviews and EDEN?

 

Prices on the unsold suites on my Jan. 20 Edge cruise went up again this week.  Stockholders are laughing at the reviews all the way to the bank.

[AtlantaCruiser72]

I personally think Gen X have become the "forgotten" market segment in so many discussions here on cruise critic. Many of us have disposable income, are willing to pay for upgraded experiences (dining and beverage packages) and in many cases have children either in high school, or college and are therefore looking for more "adult" vacations rather than the floating amusement parks at sea of NCL, CCL, or Royal.

Edited January 4, 2019 by AtlantaCruiser72

[BNBR]

4 hours ago, AtlantaCruiser72 said:

I personally think Gen X have become the "forgotten" market segment in so many discussions here on cruise critic. Many of us have disposable income, are willing to pay for upgraded experiences (dining and beverage packages) and in many cases have children either in high school, or college and are therefore looking for more "adult" vacations rather than the floating amusement parks at sea of NCL, CCL, or Royal.

 

They haven't forgotten about Gen X. Royal has obscene amounts of data. They know age groups, how much they spend, which ships they are booking, trends, etc. 

 

My mother, in her 60's, enjoyed Celebrity but would take Harmony (her last cruise) all day over Celebrity. Royal knows the trends, and I think Gen X, let alone Baby Boomers, are flocking towards those supposed amusement parks that you despise.  And thats because the amusement parks offer lots of refined, quiet spaces - more than Celebrity, but with a ton of other things to do as well and far superior entertainment. Unless you think Gen X hates quality musicals and jazz clubs....