AL3XCruise Posted March 6, 2020 #201 Share Posted March 6, 2020 1 hour ago, ed01106 said: That has nothing to do with liquidity, which is what CCL needs to worry about at the moment. The problem for CCL is short term liabilities compared to cash. For their last fiscal year, the net cash flow was poor. However, when you consider that was after $1.4 billion in dividends and $600 million in stock repurchasing, they have some cushion before they can't pay short term debt. Even if Net Income does drop by $2+ billion, I doubt they will have trouble finding financing. At the moment I don't see any evidence the cruise industry is going to evaporate in the long term, and there is going to be someone willing to provide capital in the short term. It could be expensive, but it will be there. In addition to the general travel slowdown's impact on revenue, the stock price is likely reflecting concerns about cut dividends and expensive financing driving down profits in years to come. I don't seen any evidence of bankruptcy driving investors to sell. 1 hour ago, oskidunker said: This has been going on for many years. I would think they would want people to buy the stock so I doubt they cancel the benefit. Considering 87% of CCL stock is currently held by institutional investors, I have a feeling they will prioritize dividends over OBC if it comes down to it. But we just don't know how tightly CCL will need to reign things in yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rbrad3 Posted March 6, 2020 #202 Share Posted March 6, 2020 sold at 48 will rebuy at 19.85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMMariner Posted March 6, 2020 #203 Share Posted March 6, 2020 We bought in at around $45. So we have taken a bit of a paper loss. The nice thing is how much can you really lose if you only bought a hundred shares. I would think at this time both the dividend and the OBC may be in trouble for a while. Carnival is going to be hurting for cash flow. I started thinking of cost averaging down, but I can't really see a bottom at this point. I agree, I don't see bankruptcy as an problem at this point, but it is certainly going be an ugly ride for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcrcruiser Posted March 6, 2020 #204 Share Posted March 6, 2020 The cruise lines require huge cash flows to operate . As more & more people cancel their cruises the cash flow shrinks . now think of the vendors who supply the cruise lines .They will press for guarantees of payment . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcrcruiser Posted March 6, 2020 #205 Share Posted March 6, 2020 (edited) Personally I would not touch any stock during this time . i won't get wealthy in the stock market ;but ,i won;t loose either .I do own precious metals for quite some time & they are performing very nicely Edited March 6, 2020 by mcrcruiser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcrcruiser Posted March 6, 2020 #206 Share Posted March 6, 2020 (edited) For Friday March 6 ,2020 the Dow ,S&P & Nasdq futures indexes are all in the red big time .Cruise lines stocks will get hammered again Edited March 6, 2020 by mcrcruiser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justalone Posted March 6, 2020 #207 Share Posted March 6, 2020 I bought more gold bars 2 weeks ago. Glad I did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stateroom_Sailor Posted March 6, 2020 #208 Share Posted March 6, 2020 7 hours ago, Griller said: Carnival Debt/Equity ratio 0 .38 NCL 1.04 Royal Caribbean 0.74 Carnival's debt is regarded as "conservatively managed" Figures are from end of 2019 Low numbers good - higher numbers bad. Makes me wonder where MSC is with their aggressive expansion. Wonderful start to Virgin Voyages. I've always thought that these mass market lines were exanding too aggressively these past 10 years, as if cruising trends and bull market would never end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caribill Posted March 6, 2020 #209 Share Posted March 6, 2020 10 hours ago, mcrcruiser said: when any company has to decide whether to pay their debt on time or pay dividends the choice they make is a easy one & that is to pay their debt so they don't go into foreclosure or need to file bankruptcy Some companies have borrowed money to cover the dividend, thus increasing debt but keeping stockholders happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caribill Posted March 6, 2020 #210 Share Posted March 6, 2020 8 hours ago, CruiseVA said: I already have RCL & CCL, looking at NCL now in case we sail on one of their lines. IHG is a deal, and, you get access to deals on hotel rooms, I'm just not sure how many shares you need. No obvious minimum number of shares requirement. Stock must be registered in your name, so you must own it directly, not part of a brokerage account. Reservations must be paid in full when made and are non-refundable if cancelled or dates changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rigby the Dog Posted March 6, 2020 #211 Share Posted March 6, 2020 11 hours ago, blloydtbird said: Purchased 100 shares on Monday, faxed the required information over to Princess at 2:32pm today, $250 OBC now posted to my account. I’m good with it. Except that it cost you $500 to get the $250 OBC. The stock has dropped approx $5.00 a share since Monday. But I guess as long as you are good with it . . . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iamcruzin Posted March 6, 2020 #212 Share Posted March 6, 2020 I might consider buying it if it drops to the teens like it did in 2008. We have been sailing more with RCL lately and their stock is still too rich for my blood. As a side note the large NY hospital where DW works has suspended domestic and overseas travel. You can still go on vacation but you have to register and be prepared to be quarantined for 14 days without pay if they decide that where you traveled to and from was a risk. All business travel has been canceled as well. Now business as well as leisure travel in being hit. My son is graduating in June in Florida and DW may not be able to attend if this restriction is still enforced. I would imagine that hotels will be looking for guests as well as car rental companies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blloydtbird Posted March 6, 2020 #213 Share Posted March 6, 2020 1 hour ago, Rigby the Dog said: Except that it cost you $500 to get the $250 OBC. The stock has dropped approx $5.00 a share since Monday. But I guess as long as you are good with it . . . Hasn’t cost me anything actually, I only lose if I were to sell, I’m sure you are aware of that though. I am confident that the stock will bounce back well before I reach retirement age, more than a quarter century from now. As part of my ira portfolio, I chose this stock. If you are closer to retirement age or in desperate need of cash, avoid it no question. For me, I am fine with the investment. If CCL goes bankrupt, so be it. I’ll lose $3,200, I’ll be fine. If they don’t, I’ll be fine as well. If they continue paying the OBC and the dividend, I’m in a net positive situation unless I need to sell right now. I don’t and I can’t touch these funds for a long time. Finally, I’m not encouraging anyone else to buy the stock, merely showing that the OBC is still in effect as there were questions raised about that. So yes, I’m good with it. Cheers 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rigby the Dog Posted March 6, 2020 #214 Share Posted March 6, 2020 5 minutes ago, blloydtbird said: Hasn’t cost me anything actually, I only lose if I were to sell, I’m sure you are aware of that though. I am confident that the stock will bounce back well before I reach retirement age, more than a quarter century from now. As part of my ira portfolio, I chose this stock. If you are closer to retirement age or in desperate need of cash, avoid it no question. For me, I am fine with the investment. If CCL goes bankrupt, so be it. I’ll lose $3,200, I’ll be fine. If they don’t, I’ll be fine as well. If they continue paying the OBC and the dividend, I’m in a net positive situation unless I need to sell right now. I don’t and I can’t touch these funds for a long time. Finally, I’m not encouraging anyone else to buy the stock, merely showing that the OBC is still in effect as there were questions raised about that. So yes, I’m good with it. Cheers I hear you - and my life situation is similar to yours; albeit maybe 10 years closer to retirement date than yours. I too have been following the stock and was waiting for $35 per share, then $33 - I kept holding off. And now I'm waiting for the bottom. However, this won't be part of my 401k. And, for the moment, our next cruise isn't until November so I have time to watch it dip. Enjoy your cruise man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel A Posted March 6, 2020 Author #215 Share Posted March 6, 2020 13 hours ago, blondee419 said: Is there always a cut off date in that letter? according to the link, https://www.carnivalcorp.com/static-files/50351a91-4dc0-4f6b-bfec-684647e6129f "Reservations must be made by February 28, 2021." It doesn't appear that there is any intention to discontinue the OBC. Carnival has updated that shareholder benefit announcement because it does now say "February 28, 2021." Last week there was an error and it said "February 29, 2021." So they must have taken down the post containing the error and put up a new announcement of the benefit with the date correction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farts Posted March 6, 2020 #216 Share Posted March 6, 2020 20 hours ago, Griller said: 31st October 2008 Did they suspend the OBC too at that time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Griller Posted March 6, 2020 #217 Share Posted March 6, 2020 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Farts said: Did they suspend the OBC too at that time? No I don't think they ever have, its always been renewed annually as long as I can remember. I think it probably brings more money in than it costs Have to consider onboard spend which is all important these days in cruiseline profitability I'd like to see more OBC for larger blocks of share ownership. Like double OBC for 1000 shares? Edited March 6, 2020 by Griller 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colo Cruiser Posted March 6, 2020 #218 Share Posted March 6, 2020 13 minutes ago, Farts said: Did they suspend the OBC too at that time? No. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colo Cruiser Posted March 6, 2020 #219 Share Posted March 6, 2020 3 hours ago, Rigby the Dog said: Except that it cost you $500 to get the $250 OBC. The stock has dropped approx $5.00 a share since Monday. But I guess as long as you are good with it . . . As I said before most buy for the OBC not the investment and as stated above there is no loss until you sell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ed01106 Posted March 6, 2020 #220 Share Posted March 6, 2020 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Colo Cruiser said: As I said before most buy for the OBC not the investment You have said that multiple time. It is a blatantly false statement. Most of the stock is owned by institutions (banks, mutual funds, pension funds, etc) who purchase it looking for ROI from dividends and stock appreciation.Repeating a false statement multiple times doesn’t make it any less false. Edited March 6, 2020 by ed01106 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colo Cruiser Posted March 6, 2020 #221 Share Posted March 6, 2020 7 minutes ago, ed01106 said: You have said that multiple time. It is a blatantly false statement. Most of the stock is owned by institutions (banks, mutual funds, pension funds, etc) who purchase it looking for ROI from dividends and stock appreciation.Repeating a false statement multiple times doesn’t make it any less false. Talking about Cruise Critic. As I said before most buy for the OBC not the investment. Take a chill pill. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Griller Posted March 6, 2020 #222 Share Posted March 6, 2020 31 minutes ago, Colo Cruiser said: Talking about Cruise Critic. As I said before most buy for the OBC not the investment. Take a chill pill. I think its true that out of the individual l holders of CCL stock that a huge number of them have bought just 100 to get the OBC But institutional investors own most of the stock. And unfortunately their computers seem to panic easily and put a sell order in I know my bank SunTrust own a big chunk on behalf of investors. And the Arison family still own quite a bit one way and another, if we are hurting with the stock halving in value then Michael Arison must be experiencing the death of a thousand knives right now. I 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colo Cruiser Posted March 6, 2020 #223 Share Posted March 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, Griller said: I think its true that out of the individual l holders of CCL stock that a huge number of them have bought just 100 to get the OBC But institutional investors own most of the stock. And unfortunately their computers seem to panic easily and put a sell order in I know my bank SunTrust own a big chunk on behalf of investors. And the Arison family still own quite a bit one way and another, if we are hurting with the stock halving in value then Michael Arison must be experiencing the death of a thousand knives right now. I Thats great but I don't care who else owns it. Just give me the OBC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rigby the Dog Posted March 6, 2020 #224 Share Posted March 6, 2020 1 hour ago, Colo Cruiser said: As I said before most buy for the OBC not the investment and as stated above there is no loss until you sell. But that's not true. If I buy 100 shares at $33 per share and it goes down to $28 three days later, that $500 difference would now buy me another 17 or 18 shares - or i would have saved $500 by waiting three days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Griller Posted March 6, 2020 #225 Share Posted March 6, 2020 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Rigby the Dog said: But that's not true. If I buy 100 shares at $33 per share and it goes down to $28 three days later, that $500 difference would now buy me another 17 or 18 shares - or i would have saved $500 by waiting three days. Yes its true, but trying to time the market is futile Just bite the bullet when it seems reasonable to buy 100 and keep on getting the tax free OBC cruise after cruise until your OBC exceeds your initial purchase cost and then you're really in profit even though you haven't sold At current rates if you get 12 x 14day OBC your stock will be paid for. Edited March 6, 2020 by Griller 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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