Grand Princess Coronavirus Discussion (retitled after merger of several topics)

[ar1950]

Hopefully things will be handled better than what happened on the Diamond.  Not sure that will be the case since there is not enough known about what to do or even the facilities to handle it.  Guess we will see.

 

[NSWP]

Just now, leongcpa said:

Far. I'm not using google maps, but roughly 600km. 

Thank you.  Bit of travel then if Grand Princess is heading there? 

[karatemom2]

1 minute ago, flyguyjake said:

So the ship returned on 2/21. The average incubation period is 5 days and these folks are all just getting sick now, 14 days later. This sucker can really hang on. Looks like a 14 days incubation for them.

 

From what I read some of them aren't just getting sick now, they have been ill for many days but didn't make the connection until the news started coming out in the past few days about the Grand. The patient here who was just identified has been feeling unwell since coming home and thankfully stayed home, just going out to get tested when the news came out the she might have been exposed on the ship. 

[NSWP]

2 minutes ago, Travelgrrl said:

 

Out of the first 45 test, 21 are indeed confirmed infected: 19 crew and 2 passengers.

 

I love to cruise. I've been planning a med cruise with my daughter for this October (another line), and this is so, so heartbreaking. I feel for the passengers who have disembarked, for those onboard. For the public health people trying to track them down, and for doctors and nurses treating what looks to be soon be an influx, while risking their own lives. I feel for every other cruise lover who is seeing their plans disintegrate, and for cruise and airline companies that, through no fault of their own, are going to see massive losses.

 

It's a crazy world, these days.  I hope some day we'll meet again on the high seas, with no more concerns than monograms on the butter, chair hogs, and which is the best tour!  

Thank you.

[karatemom2]

1 minute ago, NSWP said:

Thank you.  Bit of travel then if Grand Princess is heading there? 

 Not that far on a cruise ship - they can get there within less than a day.

[psuboater]

Also, in between the two cruises, there was a conference held at the Pier from the 23rd-26th. So if someone who disembarked had touched any surface or came in contact with  a port worker, there's a possibility that someone was carrying the virus to this conference, especially with someone who worked at the port. Those conference members came from across the country, so this can all get interesting really quickly. 

[leongcpa]

3 minutes ago, NSWP said:

Thank you.  Bit of travel then if Grand Princess is heading there? 

They can make it in 20 hours or so, if they go roughly 20 knots'ish.... If the Grand Princess just starts now, they probably get there tomorrow night...

Edited March 7, 2020 by leongcpa

[NSWP]

Just now, leongcpa said:

They can make it in 20 hours or so, if they go roughly 20 knots'ish.... If they just started now, they probably get there tomorrow night...

Thank you, I thought about 24 hrs.

[NSWP]

2 minutes ago, psuboater said:

Also, in between the two cruises, there was a conference held at the Pier from the 23rd-26th. So if someone who disembarked had touched any surface or came in contact with  a port worker, there's a possibility that someone was carrying the virus to this conference, especially with someone who worked at the port. Those conference members came from across the country, so this can all get interesting really quickly. 

Good point, I have been into the SF Piers, always a lot of people about, like Fishermans Wharf etc.

Edited March 7, 2020 by NSWP

[leongcpa]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

Every single person on the ship will be tested. Those infected will be removed and hospitalized. Much better policy than what the Japanese were forced to do with lack of test kits. 

I think this assumes we have enough test kits.... which, frankly, we might not..... 

[hobo1937]

12 minutes ago, NSWP said:

How far is Point Mugu from San Francisco? 

Approximately 400 miles. Closer to LA

[snowblower]

11 minutes ago, NSWP said:

How far is Point Mugu from San Francisco? 

They have to sail about 280 nautical miles.  The Grand's speed according to ship trackers is approximately 11 knots.  It will take about 25 hours to sail to the navy port if they stay at their present speed.

[leongcpa]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

I would guess there are quite a lot of non symptomatic people walking around the country that were on the previous cruise. I hope the CDC plans on testing every single passenger from that cruise as well. Then they would need to track down everyone that was positive met with over the past 2 weeks. Just a monumental task that is ahead for them.

Frankly, it's an impossible task - 2,500 people x 20'ish people (if we are lucky) that they have met in the last 14 days, and I really doubt that the CDC has the staff to do it.... not all are going to be sick, but tracking everyone down, at this point, is pretty much impossible.

[kathy49]

5 minutes ago, leongcpa said:

I think this assumes we have enough test kits.... which, frankly, we might not..... 

frankly that is a big assumption the way things are going.

[junglejane]

Another possible destination is Oakland/Alameda, including next to the USS Hornet.  A lesser used dock would be desirable as the ship may be tied up for some time.  If they continue sailing in circles tonight (as they have all day), it suggests they are staying closer to the Bay Area.  

[clskinsfan]

11 minutes ago, leongcpa said:

I think this assumes we have enough test kits.... which, frankly, we might not..... 

Pence said The US will have over 1 million of them on Monday. With many millions coming over the next 2 weeks. 

[NorthwestCruiser]

1 hour ago, hapster85 said:

 

 

It's been 14 days since those on the previous cruise disembarked. Tracking down everyone who was on the previous cruise is possible. Tracking down each of their friends and family may be doable, but tracking down the strangers would be impossible. No one is going to remember every unknown person they've encountered in that time.

 

Currently it is believed that you need some amount of extended contact to get the virus, so you won't get it from walking next to somebody.  That is why contact tracing is still thought to be useful.  However that may change as we get more information.  Someone on the WHO conference pointed out that if it were indeed so contagious that very casual contact could spread it, there would be a lot more cases already.

 

[leongcpa]

8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Pence said The US will have over 1 million of them on Monday. With many millions coming over the next 2 weeks. 

He also said last week, that they would have over 1 million today. That has not proven out.... at this point, Pence's word is not particularly reliable.... correction: It was other administration officials who said they would have over 1 million today... and yesterday, Pence moved that goal back to next week.

Edited March 7, 2020 by leongcpa

[rabidstoat]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Pence said The US will have over 1 million of them on Monday. With many millions coming over the next 2 weeks. 

 

This is good, though they still could run into snafus, I suppose. I mean, they said they'd have a million today and they don't. But Pence seems like he's trying to be transparent, or as much as he can be with the uncertainty.

 

They'll still have to train people to administer tests and need labs and staff to run them. I think I read that the US actually has a lot of lab capacity for this, but I might be mis-remembering.

[clskinsfan]

Just now, rabidstoat said:

 

This is good, though they still could run into snafus, I suppose. I mean, they said they'd have a million today and they don't. But Pence seems like he's trying to be transparent, or as much as he can be with the uncertainty.

 

They'll still have to train people to administer tests and need labs and staff to run them. I think I read that the US actually has a lot of lab capacity for this, but I might be mis-remembering.

I think they have the million already but are still in the process of delivering them to state health authorities. The end goal needs to be getting them to the local doctors and hospitals. It will take a little time. But they will get there.

[kathy49]

11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Pence said The US will have over 1 million of them on Monday. With many millions coming over the next 2 weeks. 

right!

[NorthwestCruiser]

Many of you already know this, but you can go to marinetraffic.com to see where the ship is, and select "show past track" to see what it has been doing.   So far it seems to be continuing on the "racetrack" going around in circles.

[MoniMommy]

20 minutes ago, NorthwestCruiser said:

Currently it is believed that you need some amount of extended contact to get the virus, so you won't get it from walking next to somebody.  That is why contact tracing is still thought to be useful.  However that may change as we get more information.  Someone on the WHO conference pointed out that if it were indeed so contagious that very casual contact could spread it, there would be a lot more cases already.

 

Well, we just started testing. So how would we know that there aren't many more cases. There probably are lots of mind cases. Problem is those with me symptoms can pass it to a vulnerable person who will develop severe symptoms.

[flyguyjake]

Regarding keeping the passengers quarantined on the ship...  The President said this...

 

“I like the numbers being where they are. I don’t need to have the numbers double because of one ship” — Trump explains that he doesn’t want to let people off the Grand Princess cruise ship because he doesn’t want the number of coronavirus cases in the country to go up pic.twitter.com/ELhZDjiZW9

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 6, 2020

[Mackenzie1]

Dr. Sanjay Gupta just said on CNN that only 46 people onboard the Grand were actually tested of the thousands onboard. Apparently, there aren’t as many test kits available as we thought there were, but who knows.