Solvency of Cruise Lines

[mrlevin]

NCLH currently sails 28 ships split over three cruise lines.  Current ships and year of first sailing are:

 

REGENT

 

1999 - Navigator

2001 - Mariner

2003 - Voyager

2016 - Explorer

2020 - Splendor

 

OCEANIA

 

1998 - Insignia

1998 - Regatta

1999 - Sirena

2000 - Nautica

2011 - Marina

2012 - Riviera

 

NCL

 

1998 - Spirit

1999 - Sky

2001 - Star

2001 - Sun

2002 - Dawn

2005 - Jewel

2005 - Pride of America

2006 - Jade

2006 - Pearl

2007 - Gem

2010 - Epic

2013 - Breakaway

2014 - Getaway

2015 - Escape

2017 - Joy

2018 - Bliss

2019 - Encore

 

There are also nine additional ships on order for delivery through 2027.  With the coming restructuring in the cruise industry, my humble opinion is that NCLH will have to offload one or more ships.  Of course, you need to find a willing buyer so maybe the worst ship is not what goes first.  Prior to this current situation, the Asian market was booming.  CCL and RCL had ships dedicated to Asia, I am not familiar with any of the NCL ships that catered specifically to Asian customers, was there one?  Should there be one or more now?  When Radisson was ready to get rid of the Radisson Diamond they sold her to continue her life as gambling ship in Hong Kong; should the Navigator or Mariner or maybe one of the old R ships be sold to Chinese?  How about one of the older NCL ships (Spirit just completed major refurbishment)?

 

Obviously, none of us know anything and no one from NCLH can say anything so this is just fun speculation; anyone want to add their two cents?

 

Marc

[Travelcat2]

Here are my 2 cents.  Regent did have a ship that was built and dedicated to China.  This did not work out well for many reasons.  She has since been refurbished and I believe is supposed to sail out of Seattle.  I have sailed on NCL's Bliss (christening cruise), and she seems to do well in Alaska.  Not familiar with the other ships.

 

What I do wonder about is Oceania.  Is she doing as well as Regent (prior to coronavirus)? Perhaps NCLH should delay Oceania new ship builds.  

 

While some of us would love to see Regent sell Navigator, she might be a difficult ship to sell.  

 

My hope is that Regent does not need to sell any of their ships.  On the other hand, if they wanted to wait on their new build, it would be a good thing.

[BBWC]

https://thepointsguy.com/news/cruise-lines-could-store-ships-months-coronavirus/

 

The above is about Carnival, but probably will apply to the other majors as well.

[tubeamps]

Interesting article, sounds like a reasonable approach under the circumstances.

Commercial aircraft have similar protocols when they store their aircraft in the Southwest US.

Some aircraft can be ready to fly in a few days, others will be in longer term storage where engines and systems are drained of all fluids. These aircraft will not be ready to be deployed on short notice as was inferred in an earlier post.  

[Wendy The Wanderer]

Today I'm worried about solvency.  Which means I'm worried about my big deposit.  Anyone else?

[Pcardad]

Nope...not at all. Buy stock at 8...sell at 10 or 11.

[fluckey]

I know essentially nothing about the NCLH financial position and , of course, have no clue as to how the corona crisis will play out.   But I suspect the banks and bondholders to whom NCLH is indebted will do everything possible to keep NCLH afloat.  The only chance they have of getting paid back is to hope NCLH resumes profitable operations.  I sure the last thing the debt holders would want is some sort of liquidation and the forced sale of ships.  Shareholders may up with next to nothing, but I think the debt holders will want to keep Regent in business.  So I'm thinking your deposit will be OK, but like I said, I really don't know anything.

[Pcardad]

18 minutes ago, fluckey said:

I know essentially nothing about the NCLH financial position and , of course, have no clue as to how the corona crisis will play out.   But I suspect the banks and bondholders to whom NCLH is indebted will do everything possible to keep NCLH afloat.  The only chance they have of getting paid back is to hope NCLH resumes profitable operations.  I sure the last thing the debt holders would want is some sort of liquidation and the forced sale of ships.  Shareholders may up with next to nothing, but I think the debt holders will want to keep Regent in business.  So I'm thinking your deposit will be OK, but like I said, I really don't know anything.

 

Sounds like the most intelligent post so far on the topic.

[mrlevin]

19 minutes ago, fluckey said:

I know essentially nothing about the NCLH financial position and , of course, have no clue as to how the corona crisis will play out.   But I suspect the banks and bondholders to whom NCLH is indebted will do everything possible to keep NCLH afloat.  The only chance they have of getting paid back is to hope NCLH resumes profitable operations.  I sure the last thing the debt holders would want is some sort of liquidation and the forced sale of ships.  Shareholders may up with next to nothing, but I think the debt holders will want to keep Regent in business.  So I'm thinking your deposit will be OK, but like I said, I really don't know anything.

 

So you are saying the debt holders will get money but the stockholders will get nothing.

[rallydave]

21 minutes ago, mrlevin said:

 

So you are saying the debt holders will get money but the stockholders will get nothing.

There is a hierarchy under bankruptcy or whatever the cruise lines do  since they most likely can't file in the US and gnerally creditors are at the top with debt holders and stockholders at the bottom of the totem pole.  Each bankruptcy includes that information.

[Dolebludger]

Yes, I was a bankruptcy attorney several decades ago, so my info isn’t current. Bond holders do get priority over stock holders. But there was a highest priority for customers who had paid for services and/or goods who never received them. But back in my day, it was limited to $2500 per creditor. It may well be different now, as I wouldn’t know. And I wish somebody would fill me in on any current changes. And as most of the creditors are in the US, I know of no reason why the US would lack jurisdiction. Debtor corporations are not alone in the ability to file bankruptcy. Creditors of all and any classes can do so as well. In fact, that is the way it usually happens. 

Edited April 3, 2020 by Dolebludger

[fluckey]

The debt holders will certainly be in line in front of the shareholders in the event of restructuring.  But I don't it will come to that.  The banks may have to restructure their credit agreements, but with some luck, there will be no dilution of shareholder interests. It may take a while for the shares to get back to their pre-crisis levels (in the $50's per share, I think).   I think that all of the cruisers will come back eventually (except maybe the cruisers  on the ill-fated Princess and Holland ships), and the Regent shares will come back also.  No guarantees.

 

To be honest, and for the sake of full disclosure, I did cancel a Regent cruise next year going to Greenland and Iceland.  So I got my deposit back save $100.  But that was more about rethinking lots of travel plans.

[fluckey]

One more thing which I was remiss to mention in my last post - Thank you, Pcardad, for your very kind compliment.

[BarbarianPaul]

4 hours ago, Pcardad said:

Nope...not at all. Buy stock at 8...sell at 10 or 11.

I just don’t understand your belief that any cruise line stock will go up in the immediate future. It’s my belief that, aside from diehard cruisers like ourselves, there is virtually no pent up demand. Even when the ships start sailing, they’ll be neither full nor profitable for quite a while.

 

[BarbarianPaul]

One other thing. I personally do think that by June we’ll be in recovery mode. But all it takes is one infected person to take a cruise when the ships start sailing again. The resulting additional infections, inevitable quarantine, port closure, and media coverage could cause enormous long term damage to this industry. And heaven forbid someone passes away.

 

If this happens, and, honestly, it doesn’t seem unlikely, who would ever want to board another cruise ship until there is a vaccine?

 

 

 

[RJ2002]

11 hours ago, BarbarianPaul said:

who would ever want to board another cruise ship until there is a vaccine?

 

I'm afraid this is going to be more and more of a consideration, both for customers and the cruise lines themselves.  We've got two cruises coming up between now and March 2021 (one on Regent, one on Silversea), and were hoping to add a Regent booking for this coming August.  Sadly, I just can't see boarding a cruise ship until the vaccine is developed, or at a minimum, a proven treatment.  If/when widespread testing becomes available, that would perhaps offer a level of comfort if one discovers they have the antibody.

[Wendy The Wanderer]

Who knows, maybe they'll come up with a viable treatment sooner than a vaccine.  Or maybe evidence that once you've recovered from it, you're immune to re-infection, along with a test to show antibodies present.  That would help, somewhat.

[Shippy]

16 hours ago, BarbarianPaul said:

One other thing. I personally do think that by June we’ll be in recovery mode. But all it takes is one infected person to take a cruise when the ships start sailing again. The resulting additional infections, inevitable quarantine, port closure, and media coverage could cause enormous long term damage to this industry. And heaven forbid someone passes away.

 

If this happens, and, honestly, it doesn’t seem unlikely, who would ever want to board another cruise ship until there is a vaccine?

 

 

 

  Love your optimism...

  Have a daughter in law who works for a major airline. She had just been told by them that they do not expect to get in to any kind of recovery mode until the end of September.

[BarbarianPaul]

1 hour ago, Shippy said:

  Love your optimism...

  Have a daughter in law who works for a major airline. She had just been told by them that they do not expect to get in to any kind of recovery mode until the end of September.

I’m still voting for June!

[Shippy]

26 minutes ago, BarbarianPaul said:

I’m still voting for June!

   I hope you are right !

We have a cruise in the beginning of June which I know will be cancelled

 But, we have another at the end of September. What a celebration that will be if we can go on that !

[BarbarianPaul]

15 minutes ago, Shippy said:

   I hope you are right !

We have a cruise in the beginning of June which I know will be cancelled

 But, we have another at the end of September. What a celebration that will be if we can go on that !

We have a back to back, on two separate cruise lines, in late Oct. One in the med, the other a TA to Florida, and it’s the maiden voyage TA of a gorgeous new ship. Would hate to miss it. We’re also booked on a Dubai-Capetown cruise in Feb. 2021. I’d hate to miss that as well.

 

[B-2-Bs Best!]

Name of the gorgeous new ship?

Thanks!

[pappy1022]

I guess my 2 cents are worth as much as anyone elses because there is so much unknown wth this virus. I already cancelled my September 2020 cruise to the British Isles. I just cant see being comfortable enough by the time I have to make my final payment in May and I'm not interested in FCC's. Major events like the Military Tatoo in Edinburgh in August have already been cancelled. I can't see the cruise lines nor the airlines being in full go mode anytime in 2020. I will wait until the fall to see where things stand and maybe book a cruise for 2021 or 2022.

[Steve Q]

Below is a link to the latest article regarding the solvency issue. While it specifically addresses the issue with Carnival, Norwegian is mentioned.

I also thought it was interesting to note that one analyst stated that it could be up to a year for things to return to normal. Also, the cruise lines are planning to significantly reduce fares. Those that believe there is going to be a rush to book cruises might be mistaken.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/05/carnivals-struggle-to-survive-the-coronavirus-as-outbreak-wipes-out-the-cruise-industry.html

[Dolebludger]

Steve, 

i too expect fare cuts, just like after 9-11. We took a cruise to Tahiti shortly after that at greatly reduced fare. Too many were afraid to fly or travel on a cruise ship, so the lines had to do some heavy promoting to attract guests. And back then, that fear wasn’t rational. What is somebody going to do? Hijack a ship and fly it into a building? And the airports had the military for security. Now, the fear of cruising has factual basis, as we don’t know when this virus might come back. And airports can get very crowded, even though Regent ships really don’t. But the majority of people don’t know that Regent ships aren’t crowded.