Just MHO but Carnival done for the year.

[SNJCruisers]

7 hours ago, PA Dutchman said:

Yaa all dressed up and no place to go...          when sports comes back next will be cruiseing

       

Ya really think that 100,000 for a college football  game will happen before 5,000 on  a cruise?

[glentally]

On 5/3/2020 at 4:20 PM, ray98 said:

 

 they only work 7 month contracts.  

Ok?  That was the answer I was looking for  not  your editorial.  Oh yeah, Thanks!

[PhillyFan33579]

On 5/3/2020 at 10:20 PM, Lesnpaula said:

Those prices are just completely unheard of. I mean, they're probably not going to happen, and I really don't want to be on the first ones out anyway, but wow. 

Publishing low prices does two things in my opinion. First, it leads to a lot of people providing Carnival interest free loans.  Two, any FCC and/or OBC Carnival will issue if/ when these cruises are cancelled benefit Carnival based on current low prices and the likely higher prices (can almost guarantee they will be higher than these prices) in the future. 

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

8 minutes ago, PhillyFan33579 said:

Publishing low prices does two things in my opinion. First, it leads to a lot of people providing Carnival interest free loans.  Two, any FCC and/or OBC Carnival will issue if/ when these cruises are cancelled benefit Carnival based on current low prices and the likely higher prices (can almost guarantee they will be higher than these prices) in the future. 

 

I believe you just published CCL's current business plan, PhillyFan33579.

[firefly333]

Usually prices are cheaper in sept for instance, kids are back in school, hurricanes etc. January often low prices.

 

I saw nothing of much of a pattern in 2021 when I rebooked recently. I was going to book fall 2021 but thought the prices were as high as normal so I booked october this year.

 

I already see signs the prices are up, no more of those 6 and 7 days under $250 x2 out of Galveston I saw a month ago. I was busy with rcl so didnt book carnival until just recently, gone are those starting under $200 x 2 pp for solo cruises.

 

I got aggravated at rcl who kept changing rules on how to use those 125% fcc, and cancelled the 2nd fcc I'm was going to get. Carnival with all its obc and if your fcc runs over its obc, doesnt have to be reissued etc started looking a lot better. Fall prices 2021 arent that cheap on carnival anymore either.

 

I'll wait for a last minute deal unless something I booked gets cancelled.

[airdale]

I have a November 21st cruise booked on the Radiance.  So many variables...will the Radiance be refurbish in time, will Carnival cruise in 2020, will the CORVID19 come back with a vengeance, will there be restrictions on senior citizens with health issues, will all the upcoming cruiser's legal court cases that will be filed against Carnival make them go into bankruptcy?  You all know that the thousands of passengers who sailed during the start of the COVID19 that got sick or had someone die will have their day in court.

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

17 hours ago, airdale said:

I have a November 21st cruise booked on the Radiance.  So many variables...will the Radiance be refurbish in time, will Carnival cruise in 2020, will the CORVID19 come back with a vengeance, will there be restrictions on senior citizens with health issues, will all the upcoming cruiser's legal court cases that will be filed against Carnival make them go into bankruptcy?  You all know that the thousands of passengers who sailed during the start of the COVID19 that got sick or had someone die will have their day in court.

 

Your last line there is the 100% winner of the day.

Anyone looking at CCL stock might keep that in mind. (You'd think the board of directors would, too, when reviewing the contracts of Duffy, Donald and their minions. Of course, Seabourn and HAL are now "under new management" ... maybe Carnival will be next) 

[skridge]

On 5/1/2020 at 9:05 AM, firefly333 said:

My ta disagrees with you. He thinks by late fall.

 

Today Galveston is opening at 25%. Just try and think back how much has happened in the last 3 months and how much progress we can make in another 3 to 4 months. But I'll take your opinion for what I paid for it. We all are entitled to our opinions. I'd bet by November but no one knows. 

 

Yawn just more fear. So much out there.

November December seems reasonable if there is no major spike.  Best case realistic scenario seems like late September, but unlikely.  I hope I am wrong.

[ibarrio]

I sold my stock, bought 101 at $8 and sold 101 at $12. I think this ends poorly for Carnival...just my opinion but they have enough of my money tied up right now  

[BlerkOne]

40 minutes ago, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

 

Your last line there is the 100% winner of the day.

Anyone looking at CCL stock might keep that in mind. (You'd think the board of directors would, too, when reviewing the contracts of Duffy, Donald and their minions. Of course, Seabourn and HAL are now "under new management" ... maybe Carnival will be next) 

 

Given the number of shares obtained by board members during the downturn tells me they aren't concerned.

[skridge]

On 5/1/2020 at 12:13 PM, BlerkOne said:

No politics in this thread. Absolutely none. 🤥

 

Considering Carnival put most ships up as collateral, it is unlikely they have the ability to dispose of them.

 

Carnival will sail whenever people are ready to sail. I would think later this year. Much depends on how people on land (mis)behave. I fully expect wave(s) of the virus and for land and sea to open and close and repeat for a few cycles.

I agree with every bit of this with on exceptions.  It is a tremendous expense for Carnival to get its fleet back up and running.  The start and stop thing can work for the Hilton in Aruba when all they have to do is say come back to work.  The cruise lines have to spend a fortune to get the crew back on the ships.  I have seen someone say it was right at contract change time anyway, but I thought they didn't do wholesale change over and only changed out 1/3 at a time.  I guess my point is it is going to be much more difficult for the Cruise industry to start and stop.  I guess that is what "the beards" get paid the big bucks for...

[Cushing985]

On 5/1/2020 at 7:01 AM, paulgraff said:

Just my opinion but CCL is done for the year...

 

Read this article: https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/news/april-29-massive-crew-repatriation-carnival-bahamas-paradise-lends-computing-power-virus

 

They are not sending 10,000 people home, at this expense, just to bring them back in a month or two.

 

Sorry but there will be no summer cruising on CCL and I think it will be a long time to come back to normal.

 

 

Sitting  at a dock or anchored off the coast for months isn't doing the ships any good.  Transporting the employees to their homes in these ships are exercising the vessels and gives them good PR at the same time.

[BlerkOne]

2 hours ago, Cushing985 said:

Sitting  at a dock or anchored off the coast for months isn't doing the ships any good.  Transporting the employees to their homes in these ships are exercising the vessels and gives them good PR at the same time.

 

Also allows them to practice new safe cruising procedures and to train. They will be ready when cruising begins again.

[rtazz17]

On 5/1/2020 at 3:43 PM, BlerkOne said:

 

Carnival has cash to remain shutdown for a year and still has unexplored options. They will be fine.

Fine? Lol...ok....they will be bleeding from every seam. Like they are now.

[rtazz17]

6 hours ago, skridge said:

November December seems reasonable if there is no major spike.  Best case realistic scenario seems like late September, but unlikely.  I hope I am wrong.

I hope you are wrong as well. My opinion is either herd immunity or vaccine and they sail again. Vaccine is unlikely. Herd immunity will happen eventually no matter what. Unless you lock down the world forever,and even then it will spread.

Edited May 13, 2020 by rtazz17

[beerman2]

24 minutes ago, rtazz17 said:

Fine? Lol...ok....they will be bleeding from every seam. Like they are now.

Didn't the Saudi's invest big money recently?  And it's been stated that Carnival CAN go 1 year with no cruises.That can from CEO!

[Thorncroft]

On 5/3/2020 at 3:20 PM, ray98 said:

 

Math....this drama has been unfolding since January which slowed crew movement way down.  The earliest cruise date to return is basically July.  Even those who started a contract first of the year would be 6 months in at that point, they only work 7 month contracts.  Everyone from late fall/early winter are at the end.

 

So you're just guessing but stating it as fact. Nice. 

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

22 hours ago, skridge said:

I agree with every bit of this with on exceptions.  It is a tremendous expense for Carnival to get its fleet back up and running.  The start and stop thing can work for the Hilton in Aruba when all they have to do is say come back to work.  The cruise lines have to spend a fortune to get the crew back on the ships.  I have seen someone say it was right at contract change time anyway, but I thought they didn't do wholesale change over and only changed out 1/3 at a time.  I guess my point is it is going to be much more difficult for the Cruise industry to start and stop.  I guess that is what "the beards" get paid the big bucks for...

 

And a lot of those experienced crew members aren't going to be eager to return, courtesy of the executives' ongoing mismanagement.

https://crew-center.com/

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/14/deaths-and-hunger-strikes-point-to-mental-health-crisis-on-stranded-cruise-ships

[DANCING GRANDMOMMY]

On 5/1/2020 at 7:15 AM, ibarrio said:

Everyone who has money tied up in Carnival will lose every penny when Carnival files for bankruptcy and that is what will happen if they are unable to sail this year. 

This is why we have not made any further payments or paid for any further shore excursions. Will wait and see. I truly believe they will come back from this, which is why I purchased 100 shares. But will not invest any more into my cruise until much closer. 

 

[BlerkOne]

On 5/14/2020 at 9:56 AM, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

 

And a lot of those experienced crew members aren't going to be eager to return, courtesy of the executives' ongoing mismanagement.

 

 

They have a choice?

[Markmom18]

On 5/13/2020 at 5:09 PM, Thorncroft said:

 

So you're just guessing but stating it as fact. Nice. 

    
   Hi,

   Just to toss in .... our son has worked the last 3 years on Carnival ships as a member of the Fun Squad.  His 6 Month Contract was the very end of this last July . He was burned out (as usual) and said he wasn’t going to do another Contract (as usual).
 

But, literally the 1st week of March he had sent the Carnival peeps a message asking to go back on the next available 7 Day Cruise Contract.  He got a reply and was on their List. Then ... COVID -19.  First week of May, he contacted his go-to in Personnel  to say he’s still planning on going back to Fun Squad, when they start up. No message as of yet. No surprise there, bigger fish to fry ...
 

Before he got off the Dream in July, there was “talk” of Fun Squad going to a 7 Month Contract. Talk.  Like everything in our world today, we’re all just second guessing What Comes Next ...

🛳🛳

Bobbi 

[airdale]

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/14/deaths-and-hunger-strikes-point-to-mental-health-crisis-on-stranded-cruise-ships

 

WOW!  In this tread there has been a lot of comments about the crews, their contracts, their state of mind, their dedication, their willingness to take another contract, Carnival's being able to get crews to start cruising when needed, etc. , everybody needs to read this article and what these crews are still going through today.  This article came out on May 14, 2020, just 8 days ago. 

I think a lot of the crew members that were involved with having to stay on board may not be anxious to sign on the dotted line again.  At least for a while.  But the money is right and those 6 or 7 months contracts make for a really great improvement in their living standards back home.  So I think crews will not be hard to fill.

Now if the Radiance gets refurbished (I understand it is NOW in drydock) without much delay...our November cruise will come to pass.  Don

 

Edited May 20, 2020 by airdale
ill instead of will

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

3 hours ago, airdale said:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/14/deaths-and-hunger-strikes-point-to-mental-health-crisis-on-stranded-cruise-ships

 

WOW!  In this tread there has been a lot of comments about the crews, their contracts, their state of mind, their dedication, their willingness to take another contract, Carnival's being able to get crews to start cruising when needed, etc. , everybody needs to read this article and what these crews are still going through today.  This article came out on May 14, 2020, just 8 days ago. 

I think a lot of the crew members that were involved with having to stay on board may not be anxious to sign on the dotted line again.  At least for a while.  But the money is right and those 6 or 7 months contracts make for a really great improvement in their living standards back home.  So I think crews will not be hard to fill.

Now if the Radiance gets refurbished (I understand it is NOW in drydock) without much delay...our November cruise will come to pass.  Don

 

 

It's definitely more grim news for the industry's reputation.   

[firefly333]

I think the op is going to be eating his words that carnival is done for the year. Maybe we can have a wager. 

[airdale]

I have never liked to bet against myself!  I prefer to bet on the rabbit or long legged horses.