Carnival shares

[npcl]

12 minutes ago, oskidunker said:

for short term gain, would you put in a buy at  17 today or wait until earnings are announced? After hours trading brings the stock up 10% and then the next day it is down 10%. I read something somewhere where a guy speculated that after hours trading is seeking to sucker people into buying on a rise then they sell and it goes down again. There never seems to be much movement during normal hours.

 

I bought 100 shares at 9 which I will keep. been buying and selling off and on and made abot $500 with three small trades. Sooner or later I will probably get caught on a reversal but it is fun, for now.

The market at this point is anything but rational.  You have bankrupt companies such as Hertz, where the value of stock is normally zero getting bid up 2-300%.  This is a market being driven by the FED liquidity pump, not anything close to fundamentals.  

[weberman]

CCL gets an Avoid/Hold rating based on debt load by JP Morgan. CCL suspends it dividend to preserve capital.

 

RCL and NCL get BUY rating by JP Morgan.

 

I have lost so much money on my CCL shares, that I doubt I will ever recover at least from todays viewpoint.

[drsel]

The market at this point is anything but rational.  You have bankrupt companies such as Hertz, where the value of stock is normally zero getting bid up 2-300%.  This is a market being driven by the FED liquidity pump, not anything close to fundamentals.  

Do you think the Fed liquidity pump will also pump up Cruise prices and make them more expensive for us?

 

3 trillion dollars extra money supply in the system ???

 

 

 

[npcl]

30 minutes ago, drsel said:

Do you think the Fed liquidity pump will also pump up Cruise prices and make them more expensive for us?

 

3 trillion dollars extra money supply in the system ???

 

 

 

Nope.  Equities and other investments going up.  Inflation remains low.

 

The prices will be what ever the cruise lines feel  them the most money and best chance for survival. Would not be surprised if prices are higher when cruises first start up due to the number of FCCs people will want to use. 

[drsel]

So what will happen with the extra 3 trillion dollars circulating in the system?

 

 

[npcl]

29 minutes ago, drsel said:

So what will happen with the extra 3 trillion dollars circulating in the system?

 

 

For the time being the economy is on the equivalent of life support.  The extra liquidity is balancing out the impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak, as the economy recovers the money will need to get pulled back out of the system, or inflation will occur.

 

It will be a balancing act for the next few years.  

[weberman]

1 hour ago, drsel said:

So what will happen with the extra 3 trillion dollars circulating in the system?

 

 

Paying off debt!

[chipmaster]

3 hours ago, npcl said:

The market at this point is anything but rational.  You have bankrupt companies such as Hertz, where the value of stock is normally zero getting bid up 2-300%.  This is a market being driven by the FED liquidity pump, not anything close to fundamentals.  

 

It is a funny isn't it.  The larger macro economics in almost every country are a disaster suggesting recession level pull back and we should expect a huge drop off in spending and output and profits, yet the market is pricing it to be like nothing has happened.

 

Of course the cruise companies just took a dump AH today.  Funny yesterday people thought all was dandy.

 

 

[travelhound]

4 hours ago, oskidunker said:

for short term gain, would you put in a buy at  17 today or wait until earnings are announced? After hours trading brings the stock up 10% and then the next day it is down 10%. I read something somewhere where a guy speculated that after hours trading is seeking to sucker people into buying on a rise then they sell and it goes down again. There never seems to be much movement during normal hours.

 

I bought 100 shares at 9 which I will keep. been buying and selling off and on and made abot $500 with three small trades. Sooner or later I will probably get caught on a reversal but it is fun, for now.

The stock is way too volatile to make short term trades, but if you have a 2-3 year time frame, I think you can make a significant return at the current price.

[gmjc2]

6 hours ago, Ombud said:

This has nothing to do with CCL but protecting your investment so take it or leave it. It's worth exactly what it costs you ..... 2 sec of your time

 

I suggest that you place trailing stop losses on your high flying investments. 

Sorry did not understand a word of that !!!!  LOL!!

[Ombud]

28 minutes ago, gmjc2 said:

Sorry did not understand a word of that !!!!  LOL!!

A stop loss is an order to automatically sell a position if it hits a certain price. A trailing stop loss increases that price as the stock increases in value.

 

Stop loss at 20% : buy at $8. It increases to $20. Stop loss sells stock if it goes back to 16. Protects 8 per share profit. Stock goes to 30 and stop stays at 16

 

Trailing stop loss of 20% : stock still goes to 20 and it's still at 16 still protecting a profit of 8. But now the stock goes to 30. The stop loss creeps up to 20% below the highest price so now the stop is at 24. Now it's protecting a profit of 16. 

 

Concept is to protect profit not buy and hold

 

This is not in reference to CCL or NCL but if I bought a penny stock (under $1 share ..... actually that's too risky for me so i wouldn't trade it) and it ran up a huge profit (2k -> 20k) then I would put in a stop. I just prefer a trailing stop. Just my style

Edited June 16, 2020 by Ombud

[travelhound]

13 hours ago, Ombud said:

A stop loss is an order to automatically sell a position if it hits a certain price. A trailing stop loss increases that price as the stock increases in value.

 

Stop loss at 20% : buy at $8. It increases to $20. Stop loss sells stock if it goes back to 16. Protects 8 per share profit. Stock goes to 30 and stop stays at 16

 

Trailing stop loss of 20% : stock still goes to 20 and it's still at 16 still protecting a profit of 8. But now the stock goes to 30. The stop loss creeps up to 20% below the highest price so now the stop is at 24. Now it's protecting a profit of 16. 

 

Concept is to protect profit not buy and hold

 

This is not in reference to CCL or NCL but if I bought a penny stock (under $1 share ..... actually that's too risky for me so i wouldn't trade it) and it ran up a huge profit (2k -> 20k) then I would put in a stop. I just prefer a trailing stop. Just my style

One problem with stop losses, is that you are likely to get whipsawed out of a very volatile stock like CCL.  It's common for CCL to have significant overnight gaps.  Another possibility would be to buy a 20-30% out of the money put and let the stock ride the volatility.  This would give you better protection and allow for more upside potential.

[Ombud]

24 minutes ago, travelhound said:

One problem with stop losses, is that you are likely to get whipsawed out of a very volatile stock like CCL.  It's common for CCL to have significant overnight gaps.  Another possibility would be to buy a 20-30% out of the money put and let the stock ride the volatility.  This would give you better protection and allow for more upside potential.

Agreed but I wouldn't suggest getting started in options (although a put is more like insurance) to someone who doesn't know what a stop loss is. 

[mnocket]

5 hours ago, travelhound said:

One problem with stop losses, is that you are likely to get whipsawed out of a very volatile stock like CCL.  It's common for CCL to have significant overnight gaps.  Another possibility would be to buy a 20-30% out of the money put and let the stock ride the volatility.  This would give you better protection and allow for more upside potential.

More often than not, when I've used a stop loss and gotten stopped out of a holding I've regretted it.  Particularly on a stock as volatile as CCL.

[Ombud]

We're all different.  There's no way I'd hold an initial 27c stock where my investment went from 2k to 20k in a matter of days without planning an exit point even in these weird times. Pay my capital gains and move on. Happens. 

Edited June 17, 2020 by Ombud

[Ombud]

CCL' s Cunard line is selling off (not transferring within CCL subsidiaries) one of their midsize ships. P&O Australia sold off 2 of their 3 old ships, Pacific Dawn could go too ..... maybe replaced by  Grand. Anticipate that Princess is going to lighten up anything over 15 yrs old. Time to trim the fleet of more expensive to operate / upkeep ships. (SUN / SEA / GRAND / CORAL) Pacific is small but could be used as a boutique ship? 

[neverbeenhere]

The volatility of CCL at this point is a great short term trading opportunity. If you can catch the bouncing ball correctly, you will make a lot of cash.
 

 

 

 

(My problem is I’ve made too much of it in a taxable account) 

[mnocket]

5 hours ago, Ombud said:

CCL' s Cunard line is selling off (not transferring within CCL subsidiaries) one of their midsize ships. P&O Australia sold off 2 of their 3 old ships, Pacific Dawn could go too ..... maybe replaced by  Grand. Anticipate that Princess is going to lighten up anything over 15 yrs old. Time to trim the fleet of more expensive to operate / upkeep ships. (SUN / SEA / GRAND / CORAL) Pacific is small but could be used as a boutique ship? 

 

When were these sales?  It's hard to believe anyone would want to buy an old cruise ship today - except for scrap.

[Ombud]

Princess transfer / P&O sales is old news, I just read about Cunard sale.   

 

Added: https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/23109-carnival-to-retire-at-least-six-ships-in-next-90-days.html

I only knew of 3 but it makes sense that it's at least 6. 

Edited June 18, 2020 by Ombud

[travelhound]

8 hours ago, mnocket said:

 

When were these sales?  It's hard to believe anyone would want to buy an old cruise ship today - except for scrap.

Yup, it's is amazing that these old ships can get a second life.  They are usually picked up by some 3rd tier European cruise line.

[travelhound]

18 hours ago, mnocket said:

More often than not, when I've used a stop loss and gotten stopped out of a holding I've regretted it.  Particularly on a stock as volatile as CCL.

Yup, it's usually not a good idea until you are ready to sell anyway.  I think CCL still has a long way to go until it hits it's full potential, which will be in 2-3 years.

[drsel]

Yup, it's is amazing that these old ships can get a second life.  They are usually picked up by some 3rd tier European cruise line.

Costa neoclassica was sold to Bahamas Paradise while Costa neoriviera was sold to sister company AIDA.
Costa Victoria is being sold to an Italian shipyard.

[travelhound]

1 minute ago, drsel said:

Costa neoclassica was sold to Bahamas Paradise while Costa neoriviera was sold to sister company AIDA.
Costa Victoria is being sold to an Italian shipyard.

I remember seeing some of these old ships in various Mediterranean ports. You could still see the old logos painted over.

[Daniel A]

4 minutes ago, travelhound said:

I remember seeing some of these old ships in various Mediterranean ports. You could still see the old logos painted over.

Bahamas Paradise Grand Celebration still has the Carnival whale's tail funnel.

[travelhound]

21 minutes ago, Daniel A said:

Bahamas Paradise Grand Celebration still has the Carnival whale's tail funnel.

Yup, you can usually pick out something.  I remember seeing some old RCL ships, because I saw the crown.