Carnival shares

[Ride-The-Waves]

12 hours ago, Ombud said:

No. Just off by 2 days. Went from 26.57 Tuesday to 16.86 Thursday before recovering some today so far. So a drop of a little more than a third. Who knows what it'll be at Monday?Stock is not for the faint of heart but it's great for OBC at the right price (if we get back to cruising)

And if CCL continues to offer the perk...  Looks like one of the things they could easily discontinue while trying to conserve $$$ to stay afloat!

[travelhound]

6 minutes ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

And if CCL continues to offer the perk...  Looks like one of the things they could easily discontinue while trying to conserve $$$ to stay afloat!

I don't think the OBC is a major expense for them.  They really need to resume operations.  Once they restart, they will be generating revenue and when we have a vaccine the stock will really take off to about $50.

[gmjc2]

6 hours ago, travelhound said:

I don't think the OBC is a major expense for them.  They really need to resume operations.  Once they restart, they will be generating revenue and when we have a vaccine the stock will really take off to about $50.

Hope you are right! Between this and NCL shares we might be able to afford that World cruise by 2022!

[travelhound]

17 hours ago, gmjc2 said:

Hope you are right! Between this and NCL shares we might be able to afford that World cruise by 2022!

Yup, CCL was $53 just one year ago and hit an all time high two years ago at $72, so I think $50 is a very realistic price target, when a vaccine is available.  Anyone who purchases at the current price of about $20, should do very well over the next couple of years.

Edited June 14, 2020 by travelhound

[frugaltravel]

35 minutes ago, travelhound said:

 Anyone who purchases at the current price of about $20, should do very well over the next couple of years.

I am happy that I bought 100 shares at under $10/share. Now I wish I had bought more 😀

Edited June 14, 2020 by frugaltravel

[drsel]

there is a rational and logical way to invest in a stock which fluctuates wildly like carnival.

 

Buy

1 share at   $20

2 shares at $19

3 shares at $18

4 shares at $17    and so on

 

So if it falls to $11, you will end up with 55 shares.

And if it falls to $1 you will end up with 210 shares

 

You can also use a multiple of 10 if you want to invest much more.

Then if it falls to $11, you will end up with 550 shares.

And if it falls to $1 you will end up with 2100 shares.

 

But you will always have bought the maximum number of shares at the lowest price!

 

Unless the Carnival group goes bankrupt (I don't think it will), you will make a huge profit

Edited June 14, 2020 by drsel

[drsel]

You just put all the orders according to the table shown and forget about it.
No need to watch the screen or price movement.

1 or more orders may get executed over the next few days or weeks.
The more the price falls, the more you will collect.

Don't sell until the pandemic is under control or a vaccine is available.

This is passive systematic investment, it does not need to be monitored. Certainly not day trading , where you actively buy and sell many times a day.

[mnocket]

1 hour ago, drsel said:

Unless the Carnival group goes bankrupt (I don't think it will), you will make a huge profit

 

Tell that to someone who was dollar cost averaging CCL pre-COVID.  No investment strategy is bulletproof, and yes, CCL could reorganize under bankruptcy.  

 

Also, people should keep in mind that every day they buy a share at the lowest price -  every other share they own has lost money.

[drsel]

Do you have a better strategy to invest in Carnival

[drsel]

 
Tell that to someone who was dollar cost averaging CCL pre-COVID.  No investment strategy is bulletproof, and yes, CCL could reorganize under bankruptcy.  
 
Also, people should keep in mind that every day they buy a share at the lowest price -  every other share they own has lost money.

Do you have a better strategy to invest in Carnival shares?

[mnocket]

43 minutes ago, drsel said:

48 minutes ago, mnocket said:

 
Tell that to someone who was dollar cost averaging CCL pre-COVID.  No investment strategy is bulletproof, and yes, CCL could reorganize under bankruptcy.  
 
Also, people should keep in mind that every day they buy a share at the lowest price -  every other share they own has lost money.

Do you have a better strategy to invest in Carnival shares?

 

I don't claim to have a guaranteed winning strategy.  When CCL was at its low I thought it might be interesting to take a flyer on it.  My view was I could either quadruple  my money or lose everything.  This was not an investment - it was speculation.  I'm no longer willing to make investments that may take 5-10 years to pay off (i.e. retired).  I was only going to buy a few hundred shares.  I waited too long as the stock (and market in general) was in free fall.  I did buy some other stocks during the free-fall, but I wasn't about to try to "catch a falling knife" on a purely speculative stock.  My thought now is to wait it out.  There are several future possibilities that may cause CCL to revisit its low or worse.  

• There could be a significant 2nd wave of COVID
• The CDC could extend its ban further than anyone currently expects
• The resumption of cruising may fizzle out after the initial rush of avid cruisers
• Few want to cruise until a vaccine is available and vaccine development isn't as fast as many expect 
• Cruising resumes and there is a COVID outbreak onboard.
• A cruise line declares bankruptcy in order to reorganize

I have no idea if any of these will happen, but I wouldn't rule it out.  

 

My recommendation for those smart enough or lucky enough to buy CCL near its low........  when it doubles, sell half so that you are left playing with the "house" money.

 

My recommendation for those who want to buy some now........  trade the stock.  Buy on days it drops 10%-15%, and sell on days it jumps 10%-15%.

 

My recommendation for those who want to hold the stock.........  don't if you can't afford to lose it entirely.  Otherwise, if you have a 5+year time horizon, go for it.

 

Disclaimer: This advise is worth exactly what you paid for it.

Edited June 14, 2020 by mnocket

[voljeep]

ignore list updated - added one, took one off  - much like Carnival shares and the stock market … it's a fluid situation 

[frugaltravel]

drsel if it were only so easy! Your strategy is for a declining stock price not a "wildly fluctuating" stock price like you said. What if the price doesn't go below $20 again (or pick a price). Or what if your plan has a stock priceof $6/share and it never goes that low.

 

As with most sound advice and strategies I have read, dollar cost averaging tends to beat other methods - buy a specific dollar amount at certain intervals over time regardless of the price. That has worked for me over decades of investing.

 

Edited June 14, 2020 by frugaltravel

[gmjc2]

This was our first time buying shares. A few weeks ago we bought CCL at 12.43 and NCL at 9.00 then we tried a Texan oil company at 0.27. As of yesterday our shares were worth around 13,000.00 with an investment of only just over 2000,.00. We are going to wait and see if we get to about 60,000.00 and sell at that point. If it takes a year or so we can wait. We can live with the loss if it happens because we did not invest more than we could afford to lose. If it works out we have our World Cruise funds!!! 

[drsel]

This was our first time buying shares. A few weeks ago we bought CCL at 12.43 and NCL at 9.00 then we tried a Texan oil company at 0.27. As of yesterday our shares were worth around 13,000.00 with an investment of only just over 2000,.00. We are going to wait and see if we get to about 60,000.00 and sell at that point. If it takes a year or so we can wait. We can live with the loss if it happens because we did not invest more than we could afford to lose. If it works out we have our World Cruise funds!!! 

why are you so obsessed with a world Cruise?

1. They are highly over priced

2. getting all the visas for so many countries is a nuisance

3. there isn't enough entertainment, shows and activities for so many days, without any repetition.

4. The food will be repeated after a given cycle.

 

Instead, you can sail 30 different cruises with the same cash, including a few back to back

 

[gmjc2]

Wow!  Big reason is that it will not involve flying! 

Also so many ports and bucket list sights. It has long been a dream of ours

As for price, I have found several that are priced reasonably with past cruiser discounts.

The visa's will be a pain but they would be needed no matter how long the cruise might be!

[drsel]

There are plenty of cruises upto $70 per person per night including all port fees and taxes, excluding service charges and gratuities.

but I can't find any world cruise less than $100 per person per night even for the cheapest inside cabin

[travelhound]

On 6/14/2020 at 9:18 AM, frugaltravel said:

I am happy that I bought 100 shares at under $10/share. Now I wish I had bought more 😀

Yup, at $10/share you will do very well over the next couple of years.

[PrincessLuver]

3 hours ago, drsel said:

why are you so obsessed with a world Cruise?

1. They are highly over priced

2. getting all the visas for so many countries is a nuisance

3. there isn't enough entertainment, shows and activities for so many days, without any repetition.

4. The food will be repeated after a given cycle.

 

Instead, you can sail 30 different cruises with the same cash, including a few back to back

 

 

That was out thinking too.  We have been around the world on Princess but did it with 20 and 30 plus day cruises over several years.....I never thought the itineraries on the World Cruises were really that impressed compared to if you chucked the trip with a variety of cruises and still end up going around the world..

Edited June 15, 2020 by PrincessLuver

[npcl]

19 hours ago, mnocket said:

 

I don't claim to have a guaranteed winning strategy.  When CCL was at its low I thought it might be interesting to take a flyer on it.  My view was I could either quadruple  my money or lose everything.  This was not an investment - it was speculation.  I'm no longer willing to make investments that may take 5-10 years to pay off (i.e. retired).  I was only going to buy a few hundred shares.  I waited too long as the stock (and market in general) was in free fall.  I did buy some other stocks during the free-fall, but I wasn't about to try to "catch a falling knife" on a purely speculative stock.  My thought now is to wait it out.  There are several future possibilities that may cause CCL to revisit its low or worse.  

• There could be a significant 2nd wave of COVID
• The CDC could extend its ban further than anyone currently expects
• The resumption of cruising may fizzle out after the initial rush of avid cruisers
• Few want to cruise until a vaccine is available and vaccine development isn't as fast as many expect 
• Cruising resumes and there is a COVID outbreak onboard.
• A cruise line declares bankruptcy in order to reorganize

I have no idea if any of these will happen, but I wouldn't rule it out.  

 

My recommendation for those smart enough or lucky enough to buy CCL near its low........  when it doubles, sell half so that you are left playing with the "house" money.

 

My recommendation for those who want to buy some now........  trade the stock.  Buy on days it drops 10%-15%, and sell on days it jumps 10%-15%.

 

My recommendation for those who want to hold the stock.........  don't if you can't afford to lose it entirely.  Otherwise, if you have a 5+year time horizon, go for it.

 

Disclaimer: This advise is worth exactly what you paid for it.

One should also keep in mind that a large amount of dilution of equity took place with the recent financing.  With the amount of new stock issued, and if all of the convertible stock converts (converts at $10 per share so if the stock is much over that amount when the convertible time frame arrives, it will most likely convert), if CCL were to return to the pre-Covid profitability, and was at the same P/E ratio as it was then, it would map to a stock price of approximately $25 a share.

 

Considering the much higher debt load, as well as other considerations, it is unlikely to get back to anywhere close to that profitability for a number of years.

 

At this point, when companies that have declared BK, and whose equity value is likely to be zero, get their stock bid up, the market is being anything but logical so who knows what it is likely to do in the short term.  Fundamentals is certainly not driving the market at this point.  The massive fed liquidity dump is driving the market at this point, but at some point sanity will return.

[mnocket]

1 hour ago, npcl said:

One should also keep in mind that a large amount of dilution of equity took place with the recent financing.  With the amount of new stock issued, and if all of the convertible stock converts (converts at $10 per share so if the stock is much over that amount when the convertible time frame arrives, it will most likely convert), if CCL were to return to the pre-Covid profitability, and was at the same P/E ratio as it was then, it would map to a stock price of approximately $25 a share.

 

Considering the much higher debt load, as well as other considerations, it is unlikely to get back to anywhere close to that profitability for a number of years.

 

At this point, when companies that have declared BK, and whose equity value is likely to be zero, get their stock bid up, the market is being anything but logical so who knows what it is likely to do in the short term.  Fundamentals is certainly not driving the market at this point.  The massive fed liquidity dump is driving the market at this point, but at some point sanity will return.

 

Thanks!  That is a major factor that I completely ignored.  Your analysis of the impact of dilution is eye opening.  The stock would have to drop well below its previous lows for me to consider a speculative stake in it.  As volatile as it is, there's money to be made by lucky traders, but I'll sit it out.

[gmjc2]

23 hours ago, drsel said:

There are plenty of cruises upto $70 per person per night including all port fees and taxes, excluding service charges and gratuities.

but I can't find any world cruise less than $100 per person per night even for the cheapest inside cabin

At a 100.00 a day that would be a steal!  We have a price of 16,000 for a balcony with Cunard. ( about 19,000 with axes etc). Princess is not the only game in town. In fact they are more expensive than most of the other World cruises. Not counting the luxury cruise lines of course.

[npcl]

Will be interesting to see the next quarterly filing 

Edited June 16, 2020 by npcl

[Ombud]

On 6/15/2020 at 4:54 AM, gmjc2 said:

This was our first time buying shares. A few weeks ago we bought CCL at 12.43 and NCL at 9.00 then we tried a Texan oil company at 0.27. As of yesterday our shares were worth around 13,000.00 with an investment of only just over 2000,.00. We are going to wait and see if we get to about 60,000.00 and sell at that point. If it takes a year or so we can wait. We can live with the loss if it happens because we did not invest more than we could afford to lose. If it works out we have our World Cruise funds!!! 

This has nothing to do with CCL but protecting your investment so take it or leave it. It's worth exactly what it costs you ..... 2 sec of your time

 

I suggest that you place trailing stop losses on your high flying investments. 

[oskidunker]

for short term gain, would you put in a buy at  17 today or wait until earnings are announced? After hours trading brings the stock up 10% and then the next day it is down 10%. I read something somewhere where a guy speculated that after hours trading is seeking to sucker people into buying on a rise then they sell and it goes down again. There never seems to be much movement during normal hours.

 

I bought 100 shares at 9 which I will keep. been buying and selling off and on and made abot $500 with three small trades. Sooner or later I will probably get caught on a reversal but it is fun, for now.