Cruises are back - what they may look like now

[Harry Peterson]

https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/future-of-cruising-coronavirus/index.html

[AndyMichelle]

Breaking news... 

Travel agent who sells cruises says its the safest way to travel at the minute... 😊

Interesting read though, but I think many peoples big concern would be what would happen if things went wrong. 

Great news, but I will still be watching from afar for a while.. 

Andy 

[Harry Peterson]

16 minutes ago, AndyMichelle said:

Breaking news... 

Travel agent who sells cruises says its the safest way to travel at the minute... 😊

Interesting read though, but I think many peoples big concern would be what would happen if things went wrong. 

Great news, but I will still be watching from afar for a while.. 

Andy 

Me too, Andy, and probably for much the same reasons.

 

That travel agent, unbiased of course, was probably drawing comparisons with his equally popular space flights to Mars.

 

Pretty rigorous precautions being taken, but as you say, things can still go wrong. Murphy’s Law.

[kruzseeka]

Good to read it went well in respect of no outbreak and encouraging that the cruise line took a hard line with the tour passengers who 'escaped' and were denied boarding.  I feel sorry for those though who had the misfortune to travel in the transfer bus with the two passengers who tested positive and were also denied boarding.  Right decision i guess, but a shame for them. 

 

You're right Andy, the report came from someone who might be considered to gave a vested interest in painting a positive picture but I noticed there was very little detail on the nitty gritty of the protocols in place, how entertainment, dining, movement round the ship etc were managed.  And yes, the big question of course, is what happens if there is an outbreak - quarantine etc etc and how confident can we be that any port at anyntime could block entry to cruise ships.  Still very uncertain and unpredictable.  Not for me - yet.

[Dermotsgirl]

I think it comes down to the individual’s keenness to get on a cruise ship and personal tolerance to doing a cruise in a very controlled way.

 

When it comes down to it, I’m not keen enough to cruise under the current conditions. It’s bad enough that I still have 3 cruises booked, so I don’t feel persuaded to part with even more money to book another cruise In such uncertain times.

 

Also, the real test of how the protocols work is when there’s an outbreak associated with a cruise ship, particularly if it’s detected onboard during a cruise. 

 

 

 

 

 

[AndyMichelle]

43 minutes ago, Harry Peterson said:

Me too, Andy, and probably for much the same reasons.

 

That travel agent, unbiased of course, was probably drawing comparisons with his equally popular space flights to Mars.

 

Pretty rigorous precautions being taken, but as you say, things can still go wrong. Murphy’s Law.

I am quite impressed with what they are doing Harry and the stance they are taking, and I'm sure many will accept it as it is, but for us, the risk is still too unknown. 

Andy 

 

[terrierjohn]

18 minutes ago, AndyMichelle said:

I am quite impressed with what they are doing Harry and the stance they are taking, and I'm sure many will accept it as it is, but for us, the risk is still too unknown. 

Andy 

 

It certainly did not seem to have the problems that many on here have expressed concerns about, but not being able to go ashore on our own will be a big drawback for us, especially as we need very expensive adapted vehicle tours.

But just as long as the shore excursions are not prohibitively expensive, then I think we will be prepared to give it a try, if P&O offer something similar for our Iona Feb or Britannia July cruises.

[AndyMichelle]

13 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

It certainly did not seem to have the problems that many on here have expressed concerns about, but not being able to go ashore on our own will be a big drawback for us, especially as we need very expensive adapted vehicle tours.

But just as long as the shore excursions are not prohibitively expensive, then I think we will be prepared to give it a try, if P&O offer something similar for our Iona Feb or Britannia July cruises.

We could live with the protocols of the day to day running I think, it's just that fear of not knowing what would happen if there was an outbreak etc. 

Lets hope you get to try out Iona for me in Feb and all goes well. 

Andy 

[grapau27]

3 hours ago, Harry Peterson said:

https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/future-of-cruising-coronavirus/index.html

Interesting read.

Like most other people we will wait and see how things develop and pray everything goes well then if the travel and health restrictions are removed we can look at potential cruises.

[Denarius]

For me to be restricted to ships tours would be a deal breaker. I would not cruise.

[SarahHben]

I was talking about excursion restrictions with the family earlier and we wondered if they might do some inexpensive walking tours of the ports for those that would normally wander close to the ship rather than do big excursions?


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[Selbourne]

I still maintain that these short cruises and/or cruises to nowhere are making claims that are in complete defiance of the science of Covid. To say that a 7 day cruise was virus free is nonsense. With a 2 to 14 day incubation period, passengers may become ill with Covid as a direct result of the cruise up to 2 weeks after disembarking. Are there follow up checks 2 weeks after disembarking? Doubt it. And if there are, do they contact ALL passengers who had been on the cruise? Would they then publish the results to show that infections had occurred as a result of the cruise? Of course not. 
 

Furthermore, staying confined on a cruise ship on a cruise to nowhere, especially if weather conditions don’t allow for large numbers to sunbath during the day, presents far more risk than going ashore in a port and being in the open air, even if the country has relatively high infection rates. I appreciate that a lot of people are desperate to get back on a cruise ship at any cost, even with all the restrictions (that sound pretty horrid, but each to their own) but these short cruises are definitely not providing any reassurance that cruising is Covid safe.

Edited August 29, 2020 by Selbourne

[terrierjohn]

2 hours ago, Selbourne said:

I still maintain that these short cruises and/or cruises to nowhere are making claims that are in complete defiance of the science of Covid. To say that a 7 day cruise was virus free is nonsense. With a 2 to 14 day incubation period, passengers may become ill with Covid as a direct result of the cruise up to 2 weeks after disembarking. Are there follow up checks 2 weeks after disembarking? Doubt it. And if there are, do they contact ALL passengers who had been on the cruise? Would they then publish the results to show that infections had occurred as a result of the cruise? Of course not. 
 

Furthermore, staying confined on a cruise ship on a cruise to nowhere, especially if weather conditions don’t allow for large numbers to sunbath during the day, presents far more risk than going ashore in a port and being in the open air, even if the country has relatively high infection rates. I appreciate that a lot of people are desperate to get back on a cruise ship at any cost, even with all the restrictions (that sound pretty horrid, but each to their own) but these short cruises are definitely not providing any reassurance that cruising is Covid safe.

I guess that even the most stupid govt official or MP will understand the points you're making Selbourne, and will be open to remedies to the protocols to take these into account.

[No pager thank you]

A further point which is unclear in this article as I read it is how far the movement of crew is restricted when in port?

 

If the crew are able to leave the ship and mix freely then surely they would require the testing that is aimed at passengers boarding.  Otherwise, the point of creating a bubble for pre-planned excursions in ports for passengers loses sense?

 

Practically, the points that I would like to know (and no doubt will not be in told by P&O, or certainly more than 12 weeks out):

 

1) What is the actual protocol for an outbreak on board, if it occurs in international waters?

 

2) Will the cost of port excursions be based on P&O standard (high) prices?

 

3) Pre-packaged snacks on board - go on..what does this mean for the dining and entertainment experience?

 

4) If you cannot leave the ship without cost, does this constitute a major change to your holiday?

 

5) Will the normal range of amenities be expanded so that guests can enjoy them with social distancing?

 

I'll wait for some random video on a wet Tuesday at 10am for some answers...

 

 

[Selbourne]

1 hour ago, terrierjohn said:

I guess that even the most stupid govt official or MP will understand the points you're making Selbourne, and will be open to remedies to the protocols to take these into account.

But what could those remedies be John? I am at a loss myself, other than the need for a good few 3 weeks or longer cruises to have returned with no cases. I can see that these short cruises will establish whether or not the social distancing measures are practical and how they are received, but not much else.
 

As far as I know, there is no test that can be carried out pre boarding that will immediately detect someone who is in the very early stages of having contracted the virus, but not yet symptomatic. Given the nature of cruising and cruise ships, by the time it is realised that the person has Covid, the damage is done. That’s why I remain so concerned for the industry as there are currently no failsafe procedures available. 

[No pager thank you]

15 minutes ago, Selbourne said:

As far as I know, there is no test that can be carried out pre boarding that will immediately detect someone who is in the very early stages of having contracted the virus, but not yet symptomatic. Given the nature of cruising and cruise ships, by the time it is realised that the person has Covid, the damage is done. That’s why I remain so concerned for the industry as there are currently no failsafe procedures available. 

Hi Selbourne, a clue in terms of what might be a "failsafe" is the double test protocol which is being considered for incoming air passengers to reduce the quarantine period, essentially applied in reverse.

 

Not that this would happen as it is impractical, but...

 

1) If all passengers agreed to follow strict quarantine or enhanced social distancing in the period before travel (and did), and,

2) Then were then tested on arrival at the embarkation port through the mechanisms that are described by MSC

3) Having travelled continuously to port through either independent means or through company organised "bubble" transport - then the risk would be much reduced.  Not eliminated but much reduced.  The same to apply to crew.  

 

There are now various examples of "bio secure bubbles" being created, mainly for high profile sporting events.

 

Returning to reality, there are many problems with this however as a one to two week holiday could require up to six weeks of disruption (up to two weeks before travel, two weeks of travel, and two weeks (possibly mandated) quarantine).  Wholly impractical for any working person and many others.

 

Therefore, the MSC proposal (as amended) will be seen through the lens of what is an acceptable risk level bolstered by what measures can be taken to avoid close proximity contacts between asymptomatic carriers and other passengers from the point of embarkation.  Anything else additionally becomes impractical.

 

Contact tracing principles (possibly everyone) would have to apply for any person's diagnosed shortly following disembarkation, but this may be restricted to close contact only.

 

My feeling is that we are moving to a point where this level of managed risk will be seen as acceptable by Government and by the cruise ship industry. 

 

[AndyMichelle]

6 hours ago, Selbourne said:

But what could those remedies be John? I am at a loss myself, other than the need for a good few 3 weeks or longer cruises to have returned with no cases. I can see that these short cruises will establish whether or not the social distancing measures are practical and how they are received, but not much else.
 

As far as I know, there is no test that can be carried out pre boarding that will immediately detect someone who is in the very early stages of having contracted the virus, but not yet symptomatic. Given the nature of cruising and cruise ships, by the time it is realised that the person has Covid, the damage is done. That’s why I remain so concerned for the industry as there are currently no failsafe procedures available. 

I don't understand the ins and outs of it all, but the test I had last week at a drive through centre, the results were back effectively within a few hours, so I'm guessing it is a pretty instant yes or no. 

There was also no caveat that I could possibly be in the early stages, it stated quite clearly that I did not have the virus when tested. 

With that in mind, if everyone joining the ship had that test and were honest about contact, I see the risk as low. 

I still wouldn't cruise at the moment though... 

Andy 

 

 

[davecttr]

39 minutes ago, AndyMichelle said:

I don't understand the ins and outs of it all, but the test I had last week at a drive through centre, the results were back effectively within a few hours, so I'm guessing it is a pretty instant yes or no. 

There was also no caveat that I could possibly be in the early stages, it stated quite clearly that I did not have the virus when tested. 

With that in mind, if everyone joining the ship had that test and were honest about contact, I see the risk as low. 

I still wouldn't cruise at the moment though... 

Andy 

 

 

Not instant enough, we need tests that give the results within minutes and can be administered  easily, saliva and blood tests I think. I have blood sugar monitoring kit that gives the result in 4 seconds, should not have gone out for a drink last night 😕

[Oulton Jim]

The Israelis have a test based on 'gargle and spit' which they claim will give a result within seconds -using a matchbox sized machine. In 400 people tested it had a 95% accuracy.

[Selbourne]

17 minutes ago, Oulton Jim said:

The Israelis have a test based on 'gargle and spit' which they claim will give a result within seconds -using a matchbox sized machine. In 400 people tested it had a 95% accuracy.

Interesting. Clearly the tests and the speed of results are getting better, but even with the best of them (your example) you could have 150 people on a 3,000 capacity cruise ship (5%) boarding with an incorrect test result. Same problem with the (very sensible) protocols that No Pager Thank You suggests in post 16. You can be absolutely certain that not everyone would strictly adhere to all of that.  
 

This is the currently insurmountable problem with cruisIng, as I see it. Such vast numbers of people (passengers and crew) involved in each cruise - and this virus only needs one carrier to start an outbreak. 

[Oulton Jim]

-there is no perfect solution. More people are dying from 'flu so I read - are we to spend our lives in some weird 'limbo'? The current talk is that vaccines may be approved in UK by the end of the year, I would like to think that we begin to lose the 'fear' attitude once they become as available as the 'flu jab.

Edited August 30, 2020 by Oulton Jim

[terrierjohn]

10 hours ago, Selbourne said:

But what could those remedies be John? I am at a loss myself, other than the need for a good few 3 weeks or longer cruises to have returned with no cases. I can see that these short cruises will establish whether or not the social distancing measures are practical and how they are received, but not much else.
 

As far as I know, there is no test that can be carried out pre boarding that will immediately detect someone who is in the very early stages of having contracted the virus, but not yet symptomatic. Given the nature of cruising and cruise ships, by the time it is realised that the person has Covid, the damage is done. That’s why I remain so concerned for the industry as there are currently no failsafe procedures available. 

Again you are correct Selbourne, there is no way that any protocol can guarantee that someone who is about to become infectious will be prevented from boarding, BUT the incidence of this happening when the ONS data shows that one in 1900 have the infection is very small indeed.  However we have to start living as normally as possible with this disease, or the entire world economy will go into melt down.

[Selbourne]

2 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

Again you are correct Selbourne, there is no way that any protocol can guarantee that someone who is about to become infectious will be prevented from boarding, BUT the incidence of this happening when the ONS data shows that one in 1900 have the infection is very small indeed.  However we have to start living as normally as possible with this disease, or the entire world economy will go into melt down.

I completely agree John. On a personal level, we are about 80% back to normal. We eat out a couple of times a week and have been impressed with all the controls. We tend to order everything (inc food) online, but on the rare occasions we have been into shops the controls are pretty good. We have 4 holidays booked over the next year, but all in the U.K. and in private holiday cottages. With only around 1 in 2,000 people carrying the virus, the risks from any of these activities are negligible. Our concern re cruises remains the sheer numbers of passengers and crew as, even with with comparatively low infection rates, that’s still, on average, 2 or 3 passengers or crew per ship at any one time who could be infected. That remains too much of a risk for us at present. 

[jeanlyon]

Agree about being nearly normal.  I am back at work, albeit with screens, we have not eaten out, but are off to Wales for 10 days and the Covid restrictions for eating and staying are very good.  Each hotel has sent me the rules and regs.  We are taking the dog and really going to enjoy it.  

[Dermotsgirl]

39 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

Again you are correct Selbourne, there is no way that any protocol can guarantee that someone who is about to become infectious will be prevented from boarding, BUT the incidence of this happening when the ONS data shows that one in 1900 have the infection is very small indeed.  However we have to start living as normally as possible with this disease, or the entire world economy will go into melt down.

Or in other words, it can be expected that one person with C19 will try to board every sailing of a ship the size of Arcadia or Aurora, or two people with the virus will try to get on each sailing of a ship the size of Ventura or Azura.  That's not good odds for ensuring a COVID  free cruise