Mandatory COVID Testing

[chipmaster]

5 minutes ago, MommaBear55 said:

And CDC and others say 40% who test positive are asymptomatic. In either case, what concerns me is no one knows for sure or at what rate if the asymptomatic people can transmit the disease to others. That makes air travel trickier. 

 

That is why EVERYONE should wear the mask, duh!  Mask wearing isn't to protect the wearer but everyone around them, and pretty clear why some don't wear, they really don't care about anyone but themselves and their freedom and liberty.

 

BTW air travel is actually very low risk, almost every airline requires masks, they are more strict with masks then what you wear on the plane these days ( well mostly 🙂 ) 

 

1: 27 million even assuming much higher un-detected rates, far lower than a stroll to Trader Joes or Costco I think

 

https://www.flyertalk.com/articles/study-odds-of-catching-covid-19-from-flying-1-in-27-million.html

[Dennis#1]

I would gladly put on a face mask if it means we can restart cruising.

[Ocean Boy]

7 hours ago, Ourusualbeach said:

You would have to cancel Oasis on the 21st.  It would depend on whether they dated the FCC from that day or the day they processed it which would be a few weeks later.  I know that I would be calling and trying to get an exception made but there are no guarantees. Perhaps  a phone call to guest relations 800.256.6649 and ask them if that’s a possibility and have it noted on both reservations if it’s allowed. 

I think I have figured a way to fix my problem. I can move Oasis from Jan to either Feb or April for close to the same price. Then if I have to cancel I don't have to worry about the FCC expiring before my 2022 Allure cruise. 

 

I also won't have to worry about my Southwest credit expiring should I cancel those flights.

[Ourusualbeach]

5 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

I think I have figured a way to fix my problem. I can move Oasis from Jan to either Feb or April for close to the same price. Then if I have to cancel I don't have to worry about the FCC expiring before my 2022 Allure cruise. 

 

I also won't have to worry about my Southwest credit expiring should I cancel those flights.

Feb might be tight time wise, I’d go for the April one

[Ocean Boy]

8 minutes ago, Ourusualbeach said:

Feb might be tight time wise, I’d go for the April one

Yes, less chance of weather issues with snow too.

[TheMastodon]

9 hours ago, chipmaster said:

 

That is why EVERYONE should wear the mask, duh!  Mask wearing isn't to protect the wearer but everyone around them, and pretty clear why some don't wear, they really don't care about anyone but themselves and their freedom and liberty.

 

BTW air travel is actually very low risk, almost every airline requires masks, they are more strict with masks then what you wear on the plane these days ( well mostly 🙂 ) 

 

1: 27 million even assuming much higher un-detected rates, far lower than a stroll to Trader Joes or Costco I think

 

https://www.flyertalk.com/articles/study-odds-of-catching-covid-19-from-flying-1-in-27-million.html

Plus planes circulate fresh air pretty often.  Many new plans also use HEPA filters.

 

[BirdTravels]

10 hours ago, MommaBear55 said:

And CDC and others say 40% who test positive are asymptomatic. In either case, what concerns me is no one knows for sure or at what rate if the asymptomatic people can transmit the disease to others. That makes air travel trickier. 

Asymptomatic means that they are actively shedding virus. So they will share the virus with anyone around. Yeah, if they are not coughing, they are not spreading as widely. 
 

However, if they are wearing a mask. And you are wearing a mask. The potential for transmission is down in the low single digits if you are not socially distant. 

Edited October 11, 2020 by BirdTravels

[Ocean Boy]

2 minutes ago, BirdTravels said:

Asymptomatic means that they are actively shedding virus. So they will share the virus with anyone around. Yeah, if they are not coughing, they are not spreading as widely. 
 

However, if they are wearing a mask. And you are wearing a mask. The potential for transmission is down in the low single digits if you are not socially distant. 

Are you serious? Asymptomatic means a person has no symptoms, period.  It does not imply anything about virus shedding. We actually don't know if, or which, asymptomatic people who are testing positive are contagious. We don't know which people who are infected, asymptomatic, and testing negative are contagious. And where did you find the low single digits you came up with for two people wearing a mask?  It is pretty hard to make such a statement when you don't  know who is contagious in the first place.

[jtwind]

From what I've read on some medical school websites, there is some misinformation being perpetuated on this thread.  According to them, a false positive would be very, very unlikely.  The only way to get a positive is if the virus is present.  So I don't think we really have to worry about missing a trip due to a bad test.

 

It's the false negative rate that can be high.  As others have been explaining, the test will have a lower detectable limit.  So, the moment before you're exposed, you're at zero.  Within the first 24 hours of exposure, there is supposedly no test that will detect the virus because the load would be too small.  That would be a false negative.

[Ocean Boy]

11 minutes ago, jtwind said:

From what I've read on some medical school websites, there is some misinformation being perpetuated on this thread.  According to them, a false positive would be very, very unlikely.  The only way to get a positive is if the virus is present.  So I don't think we really have to worry about missing a trip due to a bad test.

 

<SIGH>🙄

[crazyank]

2 hours ago, jtwind said:

From what I've read on some medical school websites, there is some misinformation being perpetuated on this thread.  According to them, a false positive would be very, very unlikely.  The only way to get a positive is if the virus is present.  So I don't think we really have to worry about missing a trip due to a bad test.

 

It's the false negative rate that can be high.  As others have been explaining, the test will have a lower detectable limit.  So, the moment before you're exposed, you're at zero.  Within the first 24 hours of exposure, there is supposedly no test that will detect the virus because the load would be too small.  That would be a false negative.

I don't know, or care what websites you've been reading.  There have been reports of literally thousands of false positives.  I very much doubt that all the reports are lies.

[Ocean Boy]

5 hours ago, crazyank said:

I don't know, or care what websites you've been reading.  There have been reports of literally thousands of false positives.  I very much doubt that all the reports are lies.

And he she accuses others of perpetuation false information.

[bouhunter]

20 hours ago, LXA350 said:

 the virus which will continue to see numbers go up drastically

The experts and scientists have no idea if numbers will go up "drastically", so you certainly don't.  What a ridiculous thing to post as if it's a certainty.

 

 

Edited October 11, 2020 by bouhunter

[jtwind]

6 hours ago, crazyank said:

I don't know, or care what websites you've been reading.  There have been reports of literally thousands of false positives.  I very much doubt that all the reports are lies.

 

Please be careful of what you are doing.  For those of you interested in real medical data rather than hearsay, here is an article that should be read:  https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/which-test-is-best-for-covid-19-2020081020734

 

False positives are very unlikely.

 

[Ocean Boy]

36 minutes ago, jtwind said:

 

Please be careful of what you are doing.  For those of you interested in real medical data rather than hearsay, here is an article that should be read:  https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/which-test-is-best-for-covid-19-2020081020734

 

False positives are very unlikely.

 

from your website.... 

According to one test manufacturer, the false positive rate of antigen testing is near zero. 

 

The true accuracy of tests for COVID-19 is uncertain

 

It doesn't matter what the manufacturer says. What happens in clinical practice is what counts. So be careful of what you are doing. If you don't know how to actually interpret the information that you are reading then maybe you shouldn't perpetuate inaccurate information here. 

Go back and re-read @crazyank post #115.

 

 

 

[Biker19]

35 minutes ago, jtwind said:

False positives are very unlikely.

But, when they do happen, like on MS6 last week, the consequences for the cruising industry can be really bad.

[jtwind]

4 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

from your website.... 

According to one test manufacturer, the false positive rate of antigen testing is near zero. 

 

The true accuracy of tests for COVID-19 is uncertain

 

It doesn't matter what the manufacturer says. What happens in clinical practice is what counts. So be careful of what you are doing. If you don't know how to actually interpret the information that you are reading then maybe you shouldn't perpetuate inaccurate information here. 

Go back and re-read @crazyank post #115.

 

 

 

 

Please don't turn this into a personal argument.

 

Legitimate manufacturers have to supply clinical data to support their claims.

 

Please post the source of your clinical data.

[Ocean Boy]

6 minutes ago, jtwind said:

 

Please don't turn this into a personal argument.

 

Legitimate manufacturers have to supply clinical data to support their claims.

 

Please post the source of your clinical data.

Your website..... The true accuracy of tests for COVID-19 is uncertain

 

This is not personal.  Again read post number 115. The false positives have been well publicized. It isn't fake news. I what I have experienced in my own practice of medicine is all the clinical data that I need.

[jtwind]

8 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

But, when they do happen, like on MS6 last week, the consequences for the cruising industry can be really bad.

 

The scientific community is in agreement that the chance of false negative is way, way, way more likely.  That's really not good for the cruise industry, correct?  I'd rather face the disappointment of a very few who don't get to cruise because of a false positive.  The more likely scenario of a passengers who get false negatives is what should really scare the cruise industry.

 

Hopefully, the cruise industry has taken a very serious look at the false positives on Mein Schiff 6.  In the link I posted from Harvard Medical School, they mentioned "pooled testing" to reduce time and expenses at labs.  That sounds like it could have been part of the problem.

[Ocean Boy]

2 minutes ago, jtwind said:

 

The scientific community is in agreement that the chance of false negative is way, way, way more likely.  That's really not good for the cruise industry, correct?  I'd rather face the disappointment of a very few who don't get to cruise because of a false positive.  The more likely scenario of a passengers who get false negatives is what should really scare the cruise industry.

 

Hopefully, the cruise industry has taken a very serious look at the false positives on Mein Schiff 6.  In the link I posted from Harvard Medical School, they mentioned "pooled testing" to reduce time and expenses at labs.  That sounds like it could have been part of the problem.

We do agree on that. However, false positives are not close to zero. There isn't much more to say.

[jtwind]

13 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

Your website..... The true accuracy of tests for COVID-19 is uncertain

 

This is not personal.  Again read post number 115. The false positives have been well publicized. It isn't fake news. I what I have experienced in my own practice of medicine is all the clinical data that I need.

 

You've got and uphill battle disputing Harvard Medical School AND Johns Hopkins:  https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/testing-faq/overview

[jtwind]

Here's a little story about getting the results you want:

 

I worked at a place that made batches of a liquid product.  They would get a sample of each batch and send it to the lab.  If it tested in spec, it was shipped.  If it was off spec, it was retested.  If that test came back in spec it was shipped.  They wanted to believe that the batch was in spec, so they trusted the retest.

 

The reliable sources say that false negatives are way more likely than false positives.  Because of this, if a person who really is infected tests positive, and then gets a retest, there is a relatively high probability that the retest will come back negative.  Most likely, folks will believe the second test, and that starts the hearsay. 

 

Mean Schiff 6 did the right thing and retested several times, apparently.

[bucfan2]

18 hours ago, Ocean Boy said:

I am not sure I have ever seen you post a good thing about Americans anyway so I am not sure why you would want to come over here to get on a cruise. Just hop on a European one instead and then you don't worry about what we do here.

+ 100 (myself and the 99 others who were hesitant to comment)

Edited October 11, 2020 by bucfan2

[LXA350]

6 minutes ago, bucfan2 said:

+ 100 (myself and the 99 others who were hesitant to comment)

 

No problem at all, it is what it is and everyone has their oppinion, which is a good thing.

[jtwind]

Here's some more info regarding the concern for showing up for a cruise, and being denied because of a false negative:

 

The CDC advises:

Data to date show that a person who has had and recovered from COVID-19 may have low levels of virus in their bodies for up to three months after diagnosis. This means that if the person who has recovered from COVID-19 is retested within three months of initial infection, they may continue to have a positive test result, even though they are not spreading COVID-19.

 

Now, a very high percentage of people who have the virus are asymptomatic.  And if yo haven't been sick in the last 3 months, it's likely that you haven't been tested during that time.  So, what I would personally do, is get a test a few weeks before my trip.  That way, if I had a positive test, I would have a little time to try to somehow resolve the issue.