Great Barrington Declaration, lets get back to Cruising!!

[broberts]

4 minutes ago, Tree_skier said:

WHO has some new advice for again... This advise lines up perfectly with GB declaration.

 

https://www.theepochtimes.com/who-official-urges-world-leaders-to-stop-using-lockdowns-as-primary-method-against-ccp-virus_3534230.html

 

Too bad the article does not provide the full context of the WHO recommendations.

[compman9]

Death figures have been amplified all around the world - The vast majority of the UK's flu deaths this year have been listed as covid deaths

 

Everything in the Great Barrington Declaration provides the background that all governmental decision making should be based

 

They may come to the same conclusions as they do now, but they should use this as the common sense starting point rather than the extreme positioning now that does not take into account economies

[broberts]

19 hours ago, compman9 said:

Death figures have been amplified all around the world - The vast majority of the UK's flu deaths this year have been listed as covid deaths

 

Everything in the Great Barrington Declaration provides the background that all governmental decision making should be based

 

They may come to the same conclusions as they do now, but they should use this as the common sense starting point rather than the extreme positioning now that does not take into account economies

 

Hogwash. COVID deaths are reported as a result of a medical diagnosis.

 

The WHO guidance is much more rigorous and sufficiently detailed to be useful.

 

In my opinion common sense does not include any scheme that would result in the avoidable deaths of millions of Americans.

[Goodtime Cruizin]

On 10/11/2020 at 12:55 AM, broberts said:

What the declaration doesn't mention is that to reach herd immunity would likely result in some 2,000,000 deaths in the U.S. alone.

 

What the declaration glosses over is the actual cost of providing real protection for all of the at risk people. Consider that almost 40% of U.S. adults are obese, just one of the many COVID risk factors.

 

What the declaration glosses over is that adults and children with no preconditions can die from the disease. 

 

How many dead people are the signatories willing to accept. Will any of them volunteer?

 

 

They should try Tennessee...

Edited October 13, 2020 by Goodtime Cruizin

[Goodtime Cruizin]

On 10/11/2020 at 4:29 AM, TravelerThom said:

“Great Barrington” is a town in Massachusetts, which I might guess is where the document was written. In this context great modifies Barrington rather than modifies Declaration. 

 

I've been there before... Great? Meh... OK? yeah.  It should be the OK Barrington Declaration. Great is a bit overstated.  

[crazyank]

5 hours ago, broberts said:

Hogwash. COVID deaths are reported as a result of a medical diagnosis.

ROFL,  you really believe this?

[nomad098]

4 hours ago, broberts said:

 

Hogwash. COVID deaths are reported as a result of a medical diagnosis.

 

The WHO guidance is much more rigorous and sufficiently detailed to be useful.

 

In my opinion common sense does not include any scheme that would result in the avoidable deaths of millions of Americans.

 

In the UK a COVID-19 death is recorded as "all deaths within 28 days of a positive result for any reason" in line with WHO guidance 

 

WHO guidance also allows for any death where a doctor believes a death is caused by COVID-19 without a positive test to be reported as a COVID-19 death. The UK does not do this

 

The UK has 2 figures COVID-19 and EXCESS DEATHS figure. Even if you believe the COVID-19 figure of approximately 43,000 deaths this would mean that lockdowns has killed over 15,000 people.

 

The declaration takes into account the COVID-19 deaths and also calculates all the deaths because of the actions of governments to tackle the disease and the long term implications. Those genuine scientists who signed the declaration believe that far more people will die from the effects of COVID-19 actions than from the disease it's self if we carry on with the program of lockdowns and damage to the individual countries and world economy.

 

Governments like to keep the daily death figures low because that is what the average person sees every day, generally only scientists and historians will look at the long term figures and the knock on repercussions. Those that signed the declaration are looking long term not short term

 

In the UK Austerity due to the banking collapse of 2008 is suspected to have cost between 120,000-130,000 lives over 10 years and the first halt in the rise of life expectancy in modern history.

 

Even the WHO has put out warnings that thousands if not tens of thousands are dying not of COVID-19 in low economic countries but due to the effects of the actions of governments to deal with COVID-19 in high economic countries and this will only get worse.

 

[A&L_Ont]

8 hours ago, Goodtime Cruizin said:

 

I've been there before... Great? Meh... OK? yeah.  It should be the OK Barrington Declaration. Great is a bit overstated.  

You had me laughing as I read this. 

[crewsweeper]

Here's a Skeptical critique of the Great Barrington Declaration.

 

https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/great-barrington-declaration/

 

You may not agree with the juxtaposition of other "conspiracy theories" but he does make some interesting points.  Nothing solved but good debate topics. 

 

Handling COVID-19 as a risk management issue commonsensically, focuses on those at greater risk, versus everyone.  And dispenses with the fear mongering.   But it may well be too early to implement better controls such as better testing, vaccines, and greater sources of medical cocktails. 

[time4u2go]

1 hour ago, crewsweeper said:

Here's a Skeptical critique of the Great Barrington Declaration.

 

https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/great-barrington-declaration/

 

You may not agree with the juxtaposition of other "conspiracy theories" but he does make some interesting points.  Nothing solved but good debate topics. 

 

Handling COVID-19 as a risk management issue commonsensically, focuses on those at greater risk, versus everyone.  And dispenses with the fear mongering.   But it may well be too early to implement better controls such as better testing, vaccines, and greater sources of medical cocktails. 

That's an interesting read.  I love some of the names that have signed the Great Barrington Declaration.

Edited October 13, 2020 by time4u2go

[bobmacliberty]

4 hours ago, nomad098 said:

The UK has 2 figures COVID-19 and EXCESS DEATHS figure. Even if you believe the COVID-19 figure of approximately 43,000 deaths this would mean that lockdowns has killed over 15,000 people.

 

Many states do something similar, based on the CDC April 14 expanded definition of cases.  Ohio reports both confirmed deaths (currently 4697) and total deaths (currently 5005).  Total death numbers include probable cases without a positive test.  I remember reading a BBC News article a while ago that discussed excess deaths being additional deaths beyond the average seen for the flu.  That seemed off to me as there can be significant variation around the average flu numbers year to year.  Is that still how excess deaths are calculated in the UK?

 

10 hours ago, Goodtime Cruizin said:

 

They should try Tennessee...

 

I see what you did there. 😁

[nomad098]

1 hour ago, crewsweeper said:

Here's a Skeptical critique of the Great Barrington Declaration.

 

https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/great-barrington-declaration/

 

You may not agree with the juxtaposition of other "conspiracy theories" but he does make some interesting points.  Nothing solved but good debate topics. 

 

Handling COVID-19 as a risk management issue commonsensically, focuses on those at greater risk, versus everyone.  And dispenses with the fear mongering.   But it may well be too early to implement better controls such as better testing, vaccines, and greater sources of medical cocktails. 

 

I would agree that the declaration does not even begin to cover the practicalities and there is a lot of political naivety.

 

The author of the article nearly lost me at the beginning by using the old psychological trick of "these previous statements are bad and we now they are bad so this statement must be bad as in follows a similar output" narrative 

 

He has a headline which reads " Herd immunity against COVID-19 is likely not achievable without a vaccine" then instead of explaining why he just goes off onto making fun out of the numpties that signed an open source document. 

 

He makes reference to the "REAL TRUTHER" but failed to mention that Governments around the world had already carried out a plan of what can only be described as "domestic terrorism" to ensure compliance with local rules and at the beginning probably quite rightly. By the way getting an appointment here back in March/April was virtually impossible and is still very difficult now.

 

He does finally go onto herd immunity and makes out how barbaric it would be likening it to "eugenics". But other than a vaccine which may or may not appear in the next 12 months, which opens a whole new can of worms if it does, how many will take an unproven vaccine that may or may not confer long term immunity with those taking it used as guinea pigs for it's long term outlook. If not enough of an uptake of the vaccine will governments make it compulsory and many more issues. Natural herd immunity does not come with the same issues but it does have its own issues.

 

And he finally lost me when he insinuated that the declaration could not be trusted because of those that back it.

To be honest if I had belief that something I truly believed in would save more lives in the long run I would go to the devil himself for backing

 

You are right it is really is down to a basic "Risk and Reward " scenario.

 

 

 

 

[nomad098]

1 hour ago, bobmacliberty said:

 

Many states do something similar, based on the CDC April 14 expanded definition of cases.  Ohio reports both confirmed deaths (currently 4697) and total deaths (currently 5005).  Total death numbers include probable cases without a positive test.  I remember reading a BBC News article a while ago that discussed excess deaths being additional deaths beyond the average seen for the flu.  That seemed off to me as there can be significant variation around the average flu numbers year to year.  Is that still how excess deaths are calculated in the UK?

 

 

Excess deaths is measured by comparing the total number of deaths to the previous 5 year average. All causes are taken into account

[Merion_Mom]

"The White House has abandoned the idea of controlling the virus and instead is openly embracing the idea of “herd immunity.” Officials are arguing that the nation should protect our most vulnerable neighbors—the elderly and the infirm—and the rest of us should go about our lives normally, without waiting for a vaccine.

 

While the White House has been saying this for months, it now has a group of scientists advancing the plan in a document called The Great Barrington Declaration. This idea is being pushed by the libertarian American Institute for Economic Research, and scientists whose work has been dismissed by most epidemiologists. It offers no data or scientific argument; it is a political opinion.

 

The Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO), Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, called the plan “unethical” because it “means allowing unnecessary infections, suffering and death.” He explains that the concept of herd immunity is one used for vaccines, achieved “by protecting people from a virus, not by exposing them to it.” “Never in the history of public health has herd immunity been used as a strategy for responding to an outbreak, let alone a pandemic,” he said. “It is scientifically and ethically problematic.”

[alfaeric]

If YOU want to start cruising, and risk getting infected and then a chance of dying, go for it.  

 

Just means that it will be even longer until we go cruising.  And probably more expensive to do it, as many who work on a ship may think twice about doing it.  Pair that with the extra actions to even be on a ship to minimize the risk, expenses will surely go up.

 

I've got plenty of other things to do than risking my life by cruising with people who think that herd immunity is a good idea.

[A&L_Ont]

The more I have read about this the crazier it seems to be.  I thought it was a joke at first.

[nomad098]

6 hours ago, Merion_Mom said:

"The White House has abandoned the idea of controlling the virus and instead is openly embracing the idea of “herd immunity.”

 

47 minutes ago, alfaeric said:

If YOU want to start cruising, and risk getting infected and then a chance of dying, go for it.  

 

17 minutes ago, A&L_Ont said:

The more I have read about this the crazier it seems to be.  I thought it was a joke at first.

 

So what would the alternative look like?

 

Wait for the virus to die out? very unlikely considering some scientists are talking of reinfections and other human coronaviruses reinfect (common cold)

 

A vaccine?  When and if and it's a big IF will it be available and how long to roll out?

Will the vaccine confer protection from all 10 known strains of SARS COV 2 or just 1 strain.

A vaccine is artificial herd immunity because there are large swathes of any population where a vaccine does not work, chosen not to be taken or causes harm if taken, so their protection comes from those that the vaccine protects. This is what the flu vaccine is supposed to do yet we still lose between 290,000 and 650,000 people a year world wide. Will a vaccine cause the SARS COV 2 virus to mutate even faster to survive similar to the flu virus.

 

I am not an antivaxxer  but a new vaccine that has had no long term testing, opens up another whole new

can of worms, from genetic mutation both good and bad to sterilisation to no long term effects and everything in between, no one knows for sure. An example of this was thalidomide worked great for a whole host of symptoms and is still used in certain circumstances but we all know the problems it caused.

 

Talking and listening to some of the scientist behind the declaration their opinion is to bring the SARS COV 2 into an "endemic balance" meaning the disease will be no better or worse than other respiratory diseases in about 26 months.  

 

If no vaccine is found this will happen whether governments, the WHO or anybody else, like it or not,  all measures taken up to now have been to mitigate the risk until a vaccine is found or the inevitable happens naturally.

 

Evidence is emerging that this disease has a genetic component to not only whom it kills but to those it leaves with long term problems even after mild or no symptoms. This may also explain why East Asia, Africa and the Australis area have not been so badly affected up to now. Epigenetics may also explain why some have worse outcomes than others.

 

Unless you lot have a better idea that does not include a non existent vaccine and does not kill millions through economic harm?

 

 

 

 

 

[yogimax]

On 10/11/2020 at 1:41 AM, Missusdubbya said:

seems legit 😆😆😆 

 

A widely-circulated open letter calling on governments to pursue herd immunity is counting homeopaths, therapists and fake names among its "medical" signatories, leading to accusations that it falsely represents scientific support for the controversial position.

The Great Barrington Declaration, a letter organised by prominent advocates of herd immunity, claims to have been signed by more than 15,000 scientists and medical practitioners, as well as more than 150,000 members of the general public. Yet Sky News found dozens of fake names on the list of medical signatories, which anyone can add to if they tick a box and enter a name. These included Dr. I.P. Freely, Dr. Person Fakename and Dr. Johnny Bananas, who listed himself as a "Dr of Hard Sums".

 

https://news.sky.com/story/coronvairus-dr-johnny-bananas-and-dr-person-fakename-among-medical-signatories-on-herd-immunity-open-letter-12099947

Signed by “Dr. Johnny Bananas” and “Professor Cominic Dummings," among others.  Totally fake.

[yogimax]

On 10/12/2020 at 1:57 AM, compman9 said:

Everything in the Great Barrington Declaration provides the background that all governmental decision making should be based

 

Heaven help us if this were to happen.

 

In calling for "herd immunity," the signers, real and fake, are calling for the deaths of 2 million or so Americans.

[nomad098]

8 minutes ago, yogimax said:

Heaven help us if this were to happen.

 

In calling for "herd immunity," the signers, real and fake, are calling for the deaths of 2 million or so Americans.

 

You obviously have a handle on the figures so can you answer my questions?

 

how many deaths without a vaccine and the harm from efforts to control the virus?

how many deaths with an unproven vaccine that may or may not work with unknown side effects?

 

 

[yogimax]

5 minutes ago, nomad098 said:

 

You obviously have a handle on the figures so can you answer my questions?

 

how many deaths without a vaccine and the harm from efforts to control the virus?

how many deaths with an unproven vaccine that may or may not work with unknown side effects?

Here are the facts, no guessing needed...

 

Worldwide deaths - 1,090,000 and growing

USA - 217,000 and growing

UK - 43,155 and growing

[broberts]

6 minutes ago, nomad098 said:

 

You obviously have a handle on the figures so can you answer my questions?

 

how many deaths without a vaccine and the harm from efforts to control the virus?

how many deaths with an unproven vaccine that may or may not work with unknown side effects?

 

 

 

Define "harm from efforts to control".

 

Not possible to even estimate the effects of an unproven and untested drug.

 

What is known is that the current death rate in the US is 2.7% of cases. If mitigation efforts remain at current levels with no vaccine, straight line extrapolation results in a prediction of over 5,000,000 additional deaths before 60% of the population has been infected.

 

Regardless of the definition of "harm from efforts to control", I am unable to conceive of circumstances where the deaths of five million Americans is the lesser evil.

[HBE4]

56 minutes ago, yogimax said:

Signed by “Dr. Johnny Bananas” and “Professor Cominic Dummings," among others.  Totally fake.

 

Reminds me of my high school days and the substitute teacher would pass around the sign-in sheet. Of course, when read aloud, the names were usually R-rated so I can't post examples. But just try to think like a teenager.

[nomad098]

2 minutes ago, yogimax said:

Here are the facts, no guessing needed...

 

Worldwide deaths - 1,090,000 and growing

USA - 217,000 and growing

UK - 43,155 and growing

 

That's today's figures but your statement I quoted projected into the future based on the declaration

i was wondering what your projection is based upon my questions? 

 

i personally think the declaration will cause more tragedy in the short term but without an effective vaccine the efforts made now will cause more tragedy in the future.

 

 

[broberts]

5 minutes ago, nomad098 said:

i personally think the declaration will cause more tragedy in the short term but without an effective vaccine the efforts made now will cause more tragedy in the future.

 

Do I understand correctly, it is your belief that many more than five million dead is a lesser tradgedy?