CDC Approves Limited Restart of Cruising

[Sea42]

15 hours ago, fyree39 said:

One death, ONE DEATH on US soil is too many. This government deserves all the bashing I can give it for its pathetic response to  such a deadly disease. Your comparison with a union of nations is laughable and completely ignorant.

While I agree with most of your post, I think the comparison between the EU and USA is reasonable. The United States is a union of separate states. Each with it's own governments, which set their laws for themselves in most situations. It could be argued that the EU has more control and cooperation between its countries than the USA has between its states.

[broberts]

1 hour ago, Sea42 said:

... It could be argued that the EU has more control and cooperation between its countries than the USA has between its states.

 

One would immediately lose such an argument.

 

The EU is an association of cooperating member states with matters decided by treaty between two or more members. Members of the US assembly are bound and governed by a single constitution.

[SelectSys]

16 hours ago, fyree39 said:

One death, ONE DEATH on US soil is too many. This government deserves all the bashing I can give it for its pathetic response to  such a deadly disease. Your comparison with a union of nations is laughable and completely ignorant.

 

Stop with the platitudes and be real. Also,  I never said governments at many levels have made errors in the US and in other locations.  Do you blame for the Federal Gov for building hospitals that weren't used?  Do you blame them for building/rebuilding medical stockpiles?

 

Actually the comparison between the US and Europe is reasonable.  The goal of the whole European project is/was an ever closer union of states.  Europe has a government, budget, taxes, rules, etc.  Travel among states is freely available.  Citizens of one state have freedom of movement and rights across the whole system...  

 

To me the comparison is neither laughable or ignorant.  Comparisons don't need to be based on exact equivalents.  Try doing some reading and you'll see many similar features between the US and Europe.

 

16 hours ago, mom says said:

At least the EU countries are taking steps to counter their second wave.

 

The states and federal government in the US are taking steps as well.

 

8 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

And, while this is a significant data point, another to consider when comparing the US to Europe is population density, especially when dealing with an infectious disease, and an airborne one in particular.  The entire EU has a population density 3.5 times the US, making mitigation factors that much harder to maintain, and you would expect a much higher infection rate just from the closeness involved.  

 

Population density is a reasonable argument.  This is why so many people are leaving cities like New York (in addition to other factors) for the suburbs and other states.  A factor in their favor is that countries can - if the want close national borders.  This is much harder in the US to do with state borders except for Alaska and Hawaii which are much more isolated from the  

 

1 hour ago, Sea42 said:

..It could be argued that the EU has more control and cooperation between its countries than the USA has between its states.

 

I am not sure in terms of the EU as a whole.  I do think countries have more control over their borders than US states which does help manage the spread of the disease.

 

18 minutes ago, broberts said:

...

The EU is an association of cooperating member states with matters decided by treaty between two or more members. Members of the US assembly are bound and governed by a single constitution.

 

Agreed that the EU is not the same as the US.  This doesn't mean that Europe doesn't behave in a similar way to the US at a some level.  Europe has many of the same institutions as the US including a Center of Disease control which I have found useful in looking at COVID data.  They very much coordinate policy both in the European parliment

[Hlitner]

I have some issues with ChengKP's population density comment.  There is no question that Western Europe has a relatively high population density.  But using a pop density formula for the USA is very misleading.   Just consider that about 40% of the US population lives along the coasts.   Our density is actually quite high in a good part of our country that has the most population.  But when you use a formula that tosses in all the land mass of the central part of the country and other less populated regions the overall pop density is misleadingly low.  

 

As to the steps that Europe has and is taking, only history will tell us how much difference was made by all the various mitigation efforts.  If Sweden is used as a comparison one could argue that most mitigation measures have really made little difference.  To quote a friend, a virus goes where a virus wants and our efforts to shut down that virus are more to deal with our own helpless frustration then the virus.  Lets toss out some logic (I know that many do not like logic).  We have a virus that is not going away!  Yes, we can flatten the curve if we all isolate ourselves (to the extent possible) but that virus is still out there in the world.   Once we finally come out of our basements, whether it be tomorrow or 5 years from now, that virus will still  be waiting to pounce!  The solution is a safe/effective vaccine combined with a population willing to use that vaccine.  Otherwise, this virus will continue to be a nasty problem for many years.  And for the doubters I would point out that it took over a thousand years to defeat the smallpox virus, and we have never successfully defeated a coronovirus.  We have also never had a coronovirus as contagious and dangerous as COVID which makes this all a bad situation.

 

Like many I still pray that our pharmaceutical companies do a great job and we will soon have multiple vaccines and therapeutics to  beat this darn bug.   But I will not get hung up on things like pop density since all that ultimately impacts the "when" you get the virus....not the "if."

 

Hank

[njhorseman]

44 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

If Sweden is used as a comparison one could argue that most mitigation measures have really made little difference.

No, you're wrong. Sweden's death toll has been far worse than similar countries that chose to impose a lock down.

 

If you compare Sweden's COVID-19 deaths per 100K population they've fared far worse than the other Scandinavian countries, which are their appropriate cohort  .

At present here are the cumulative deaths per 100K population in Scandinavia per Johns Hopkins University:

Sweden 58.31

Denmark 12.49

Finland  6.51

Norway 5.31

 

Further...and I've provided citations on other boards when this was discussed so I'm not going to dig them up again, Sweden's chief epidemiologist admitted  that there are things he would have done differently. In addition Sweden's GDP is expected to decline 7% in 2020, about the same as the rest of the EU, so their approach hasn't helped their economy one iota versus other European countries.

 

 

[Hlitner]

3 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

No, you're wrong. Sweden's death toll has been far worse than similar countries that chose to impose a lock down.

 

If you compare Sweden's COVID-19 deaths per 100K population they've fared far worse than the other Scandinavian countries, which are their appropriate cohort  .

At present here are the cumulative deaths per 100K population in Scandinavia per Johns Hopkins University:

Sweden 58.31

Denmark 12.49

Finland  6.51

Norway 5.31

 

Further...and I've provided citations on other boards when this was discussed so I'm not going to dig them up again, Sweden's chief epidemiologist admitted  that there are things he would have done differently. In addition Sweden's GDP is expected to decline 7% in 2020, about the same as the rest of the EU, so their approach hasn't helped their economy one iota versus other European countries.

 

 

Like much of history, the real story of COVID will not be written until long after the pandemic.  I do not have a horse in the EU or Sweden race but do find Sweden's unique approach fascinating.  Whether their death rate is the best way to analyze this disease is also open to some discussion.  I am keeping an open mind on Sweden because the pandemic has yet to end.  There is a wild theory that by "closing up" you flatten the curve (Governor Cuomo's favorite term) and mitigate COVID cases and the strain on hospitals.  But the question remains whether this changes the end statistics or simply elongates the curve. Only time will tell.  But here is a link to an interesting UK story (from September) about Sweden.  It makes interesting reading.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-cases-update-b506060.html

 

There is another issue, not often discussed, because it is not politically correct and sometimes seems uncaring.  In the case of COVID the world has essentially shut-down and taken a huge economic hit in an attempt to mitigate the virus.  Those shutdowns do not happen without untoward consequences including mental health issues, suicides, lots of damage to children who will have lost at least 1 year of education and socialization, etc.   The modern world has never taken such extreme measures for any disease.  The flu hits us year after year and kills hundreds of thousands every year and yet we have learned to live with it...and at least half the folks that could get vaccinated do not even bother.  We accept the flu as part of our lives.  Why not shut down the world for 6 months a year to mitigate the flu?    What will we do with the next novel virus?  Shut down the world again?  At what cost?   The long term damage from the COVID shutdowns are going to be huge.  New York City is no longer the NYC I know well (my birth place, home of my DD, home of my grandchildren, etc).  NYC is now a true mess.  Stores are boarded up, more the 10,000 restaurants are likely to never reopen.  Many high paying jobs are lost forever has companies relocate to other parts of the country that are open and lower cost, and many other jobs that can be done remotely will likely be done remotely from other lower cost parts of the country.  If NYC recovers it will likely take many years.

 

The other related issue is that we are learning that cities may no longer be worth the cost.  We are now seeing evidence of a new migration from the cities, especially the ones like NYC that have been kept in a long term ridiculous state of shut down.  Folks are fed up, leaving, taking their families, etc.  Rents are falling, buildings are empty, etc etc.  All this because of COVID (and I guess you could add some blame to the civil unrest).    Since I have been talking about NYC, and you like statistics, take a look at how many deaths there have been in New York.  It is not pretty....and this despite some of the strictest and longest term shut-downs in the nation.

 

So this brings me back to Sweden.  Nobody has stopped the Swedes from wearing masks, social distancing, etc.  The folks are simply being allowed to exercise their free will and make their own decisions.  What a novel idea for a novel virus

 

Hank

 

 

[ilikeanswers]

I don't see anything wrong with elongating the curve. It makes it manageable for the health system and probably means less deaths as a result. You read about India and people go from hospital to hospital trying to find somewhere with space to take them in. You wonder how many could have been saved if they got the treatment they needed. 

 

Looking at the research into the 1918 Pandemic they have found the areas that had strong mitigation of the virus were quicker to bounce back economically than those who let the virus rage on. And if you get the lockdowns right the first time you don't need as strong precautions for the second and third wave because those waves will not be as severe which will also reduce mental illness from the lockdowns.

 

But the reality is there is no way to stop a flood of mental illness after an epidemic. You look at Brazil and despite doing little to mitigate the virus the population is as stressed as those living in a war zone. They feel the government has abandoned them to die, people get shot just for coughing because of that paranoia that has swept the communities. The biggest issue will be the mental health of health care workers. It wouldn't surprise me if we lose a large chunk of them to PTSD😔. But if we look at the gold star example of Taiwan I think even having a fraction of what they have shows mitigation is better than doing nothing. 

[njhorseman]

10 hours ago, Hlitner said:

The flu hits us year after year and kills hundreds of thousands every year and yet we have learned to live with it...and at least half the folks that could get vaccinated do not even bother.  We accept the flu as part of our lives

Sorry, but you're wrong on the facts. COVID-19 is not comparable to the flu. Per the CDC annually the flu kills between 12,000 and 61,000 in the US with typical years running between 34,000 and 43,000. So far in the US, COVID-19 has killed almost 233,000. Globally, per the WHO, flu kills between 290,000 and 650,000. So far COVID-19 is estimated to have killed over 1.2 million. 

Your 50% vaccination figure is for the US. I can't imagine it's anywhere near that globally.

The mortality rate for flu is about 0.1% . COVID-19 was initially estimated to have 10 times that mortality...1.0%, and to date the mortality rate has been much higher than 1%, about 2.5% both globally and in the US.

 

The data cited above come from these sources:

https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year

 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Edited November 4, 2020 by njhorseman

[mnocket]

13 hours ago, Hlitner said:

If Sweden is used as a comparison one could argue that most mitigation measures have really made little difference. 

It seems statistics can be used to support almost any position.  Our understanding of Covid is constantly changing.  Much of what we think we know today will undoubtedly change when we look back from the future after a thorough analysis.  I love that different places are taking different approaches.  It will give a diverse set of data to analyze and form recommendations for the future.  

 

That said, here's an interesting graphic.....

 

  

[broberts]

14 minutes ago, mnocket said:

It seems statistics can be used to support almost any position.  Our understanding of Covid is constantly changing.  Much of what we think we know today will undoubtedly change when we look back from the future after a thorough analysis.  I love that different places are taking different approaches.  It will give a diverse set of data to analyze and form recommendations for the future.  

 

That said, here's an interesting graphic.....

 

  

 

No accounting for population differences?

[mnocket]

1 minute ago, broberts said:

 

No accounting for population differences?

No.  All you can say is that daily deaths were falling in Sweden while rising dramatically elsewhere.

[SelectSys]

9 minutes ago, broberts said:

 

No accounting for population differences?

Here are the 14 day trends in Europe as reported by the ECDC.  Sweden is currently running below Germany in new deaths.   The Czech Republic numbers are 40 times higher than Sweden!

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Edited November 4, 2020 by SelectSys

[njhorseman]

2 hours ago, SelectSys said:

Here are the 14 day trends in Europe as reported by the ECDC.  Sweden is currently running below Germany in new deaths.   The Czech Republic numbers are 40 times higher than Sweden!

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Of course you've cleverly edited the table to omit the data from the most appropriate cohort, Finland, Denmark and Norway. Denmark has a slightly higher number than Sweden at 0.7, but Norway and Finland are each at 0.1, well below Sweden's 0.5 14 day cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths per 100K population.

 

On top of that, Sweden's 14 day cumulative number of cases per 100k is above each of the other three Scandinavian counties, at 274.4 versus 227.7 for Denmark, 88.8 for Norway and 50.5 for Finland.

 

Edited November 4, 2020 by njhorseman

[SelectSys]

17 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

Of course you've cleverly edited the table to omit the data from the most appropriate cohort, Finland, Denmark and Norway. Denmark has a slightly higher number than Sweden at 0.7, but Norway and Finland are each at 0.1, well below Sweden's 0.5 14 day cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths per 100K population.

 

 

Not really clever, I just provided a portion of the table as it was simply a screen capture using the data as presented by the ECDC.  No manipulation at all.  I also posted a link so people can dig in more..

 

Here is another of my favorite sites to look at data:

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

 

Edited November 4, 2020 by SelectSys

[JRG]

16 hours ago, Hlitner said:

There is another issue, not often discussed, because it is not politically correct and sometimes seems uncaring.  In the case of COVID the world has essentially shut-down and taken a huge economic hit in an attempt to mitigate the virus.  Those shutdowns do not happen without untoward consequences including mental health issues, suicides, lots of damage to children who will have lost at least 1 year of education and socialization, etc.

 

Ethics vs. Capitalism has a new player.   It is called Health and Safety.   Health and Safety used to be part of Ethics but because of Covid-19 it has assumed a more dominant role.

 

The world must now triangulate between Health & Safety vs Ethics vs. Capitalism and find a balance in everything it does and cruising is no exception.   

 

On a larger scale, I believe Hank is correct in his assessment here.    We cannot discuss it politically but we can discuss it philosophically and/or  economically, or scientifically perhaps.

 

But there is no mention of a solution.........it is a statement of the problem.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 4, 2020 by JRG