CDC Approves Limited Restart of Cruising

[Roz]

 

https://www.cruisecritic.com/news/5687/

[jtwind]

So when/where is the first cruise from US?

[Roz]

How do I know? 😜  This just happened today.

[Roz]

I have a 4-day booked on HAL out of Ft. Lauderdale in January so sounds good to me.  We'll see.  

[donaldsc]

Have you  actually read the details of the CDC document -

 

 https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/pdf/CDC-Conditional-Sail-Order_10_30_2020-p.pdf.

 

It gets so complicated that it will hardly be worth cruising.  For example, read item 3 on the bottom of page 33.  I tried to copy it but it would not copy.  However, it says that if a case of Covid occurs on board, the infected person must be quarantined in a single occupancy cabin which makes total sense.  It also states that "you must quarantine all remaining passengers and  non-essential crew."  To me it means that every passenger and all non-essential crew must be remain in their cabin for the rest of the cruise.  It will be difficult for the passengers.  It will be impossible for the crew as crew quarters are shared, crowded and crew members eat in communal dining rooms.   Does this mean that they must keep passenger cabins open so that they can quarantine crew members in them.  

 

It also states that all passengers must be tested on the day of embarkation and the results must be made available to the passengers before they embark.  This means that they will have to use the rapid response antibody test which is well known to be the worst test of all of them in terms of both false positives which means that you will be kicked off the cruise when you do not have Covid and not be kicked off if you do have it.

 

As I said, read the whole document before you get excited.

 

DON

 

 

[njhorseman]

11 minutes ago, donaldsc said:

they will have to use the rapid response antibody test

No...it's an antigen test, not an antibody test. Two completely different tests used for  two completely different purposes. 

[cbr663]

There are several things in the Order that concern me:

 

1.  That all passengers and crew have to be tested prior to embarkation and disembarkation.  That will make these events quite stressful and long.  I am trying to imagine how this will work onboard for disembarkation,

 

2.  Once a threshold of COVID being detected, the cruise must end immediately.  Immediately isolate and quarantine infected passengers and crew in single occupancy cabins and quarantine all remaining passengers and non essential crew.  Essentially, once a certain threshold is met, the ship will go into lock down and return to port of embarkation,

 

3.  Arrange to disembark and transport passengers and crew using noncommercial transportation or other transportation in accordance with CDC’s technical instructions and orders.  This could make the return home quite the experience as there is so much unknown about what non-commercial transportation would be used.

 

 

[donaldsc]

9 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

No...it's an antigen test, not an antibody test. Two completely different tests used for  two completely different purposes. 

 

My mistake on the test.  However, this is a quote from a Sept 4 CDC document on the antigen test -

 

"The sensitivity of rapid antigen tests is generally lower than RT-PCR. The first antigen tests to have received FDA EUAs demonstrate sensitivity ranging from 84.0%-97.6% compared to RT-PCR. Antigen levels in specimens collected beyond 5-7 days of the onset of symptoms may drop below the limit of detection of the test. This may result in a negative test result, while a more sensitive test, such as RT-PCR, may return a positive result."

 

Another thing.  I did not see anything in the document stating that the number of passengers must be restricted except for a broad statement about social distancing.  We all know that all the cruising companies will do their best to push or ignore all regulations that reduce their profits.  

 

DON

Edited October 30, 2020 by donaldsc

[evandbob]

The way I read the announcement, it seems that the CDC is telling the cruise lines, okay, let's try some test sailings to see if the lines can accomplish the goal of safe sailing.

 

It's almost like giving someone on probation a little extra leash saying swim or drown.

[cruisemom42]

12 minutes ago, cbr663 said:

 

3.  Arrange to disembark and transport passengers and crew using noncommercial transportation or other transportation in accordance with CDC’s technical instructions and orders.  This could make the return home quite the experience as there is so much unknown about what non-commercial transportation would be used.

 

 

Yes, wasn't this a huge sticking-point with cruise lines originally?  They complained HUGELY about having to make arrangements for and transport crew and passengers home by non-commercial transport. Are they going to agree to it now?

[jtwind]

45 minutes ago, donaldsc said:

Have you  actually read the details of the CDC document -

 

 It gets so complicated that it will hardly be worth cruising.  For example, read item 3 on the bottom of page 33.  I tried to copy it but it would not copy.  However, it says that if a case of Covid occurs on board, the infected person must be quarantined in a single occupancy cabin which makes total sense.  It also states that "you must quarantine all remaining passengers and  non-essential crew."  To me it means that every passenger and all non-essential crew must be remain in their cabin for the rest of the cruise.  It will be difficult for the passengers.  It will be impossible for the crew as crew quarters are shared, crowded and crew members eat in communal dining rooms.   Does this mean that they must keep passenger cabins open so that they can quarantine crew members in them. 

 

 

 Minor oversight by whoever wrote the cruisecritic article, huh?

[cbr663]

55 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

Yes, wasn't this a huge sticking-point with cruise lines originally?  They complained HUGELY about having to make arrangements for and transport crew and passengers home by non-commercial transport. Are they going to agree to it now?

 

I seem to remember that it was a huge sticking point trying to get passengers off the ships when the pandemic started.

[cbr663]

In case anyone is wondering, under the Conditional Sailing Certificate cruises cannot exceed 7 days.

 

And yes, there are requirements for standards for hand hygiene, face coverings, social distancing for passengers and crews and ship sanitation.

 

Meal service and entertainment venues must be modified to facilitate social distancing.

Edited October 30, 2020 by cbr663

[navybankerteacher]

The recent news is not that cruises are about to start - it means that the CDC has suggested that the lines start to begin to think about how to start cruising.  Considering the necessity to generate plans and then have “simulated” cruises to serve as dress rehearsals — it seems unlikely that any regular cruises could sail until after Jan. 1.

 

Right now there is a significant uptick in infections -and cold weather (which happens to be on the way) is expected to exacerbate the problem.

 

Then - because a number of early cruisers are likely to be among the “I’m going on the first cruise I can” group, I am inclined to think that enough passengers will be disinclined to take COVID all that seriously - meaning that there will be a fair chance of outbreak - followed by another shutdown.   

 

I will watch with interest, but have zero interest myself in being among the first lab rats to participate in the experiment.

Edited October 30, 2020 by navybankerteacher

[njhorseman]

10 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

 

I will watch with interest, but have zero interest myself in being among the first lab rats to participate in the experiment.

This ^^^

[njhorseman]

1 hour ago, donaldsc said:

 

My mistake on the test.  However, this is a quote from a Sept 4 CDC document on the antigen test -

 

"The sensitivity of rapid antigen tests is generally lower than RT-PCR. The first antigen tests to have received FDA EUAs demonstrate sensitivity ranging from 84.0%-97.6% compared to RT-PCR. Antigen levels in specimens collected beyond 5-7 days of the onset of symptoms may drop below the limit of detection of the test. This may result in a negative test result, while a more sensitive test, such as RT-PCR, may return a positive result."

I wasn't disputing the fact that rapid antigen tests are not as sensitive as PCR tests. I was only correcting the mistaken use of "antibody" in the name of the test.

[donaldsc]

2 hours ago, jtwind said:

 Minor oversight by whoever wrote the cruisecritic article, huh?

 

Not exactly sure what you mean but my quotes were directly from the CDC document.  Read it.

 

DON

[ldubs]

So I guess those of us on CC might still fall into one of three general categories at least for a while.  Those who will find the new rules acceptable and hop on a cruise.  Those who might take a cruise but worry that the COVID risk is still too high.  And, those who will not take a cruise because they find the new rules unattractive.   

[chengkp75]

This is basically what I said might happen when the September extension was made.  Let the ban expire, but keep virtually the same requirements, and while they have not made them permanent, they state they can do so now, without any delay.  I still see hurdles for the cruise lines.  While the Florida governor has all been for re-opening the state and getting cruises started, he was adamant at the beginning about not dumping patients in the Florida health care system, so it will be interesting to see how easy it is for the cruise lines to get hospitals to sign agreements to take potentially hundreds of patients at a time.

[K32682]

13 hours ago, navybankerteacher said:

Then - because a number of early cruisers are likely to be among the “I’m going on the first cruise I can” group, I am inclined to think that enough passengers will be disinclined to take COVID all that seriously - meaning that there will be a fair chance of outbreak - followed by another shutdown.  

 

These would be the type to have already ignored social distancing and mask protocols and engage in other high risk behavior before they arrived onboard. 

 

33 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

While the Florida governor has all been for re-opening the state and getting cruises started, he was adamant at the beginning about not dumping patients in the Florida health care system, so it will be interesting to see how easy it is for the cruise lines to get hospitals to sign agreements to take potentially hundreds of patients at a time.

 

Even if they can get agreements there is no guarantee that asymptomatic passengers will be taken to hospital if they don't need that level of care. Where do they go?  Until they are tested and found negative Florida is unlikely to let them leave them ship.

 

 

[MJC]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/10/30/health/covid-cruise-ships-cdc.amp.html%3f0p19G=2103

 

Test cruises planned. 

 

 

[chengkp75]

33 minutes ago, MJC said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/10/30/health/covid-cruise-ships-cdc.amp.html%3f0p19G=2103

 

Test cruises planned. 

 

 

Pay wall.  Do they say when the first test cruises are planned for?

[Joebucks]

14 hours ago, navybankerteacher said:

The recent news is not that cruises are about to start - it means that the CDC has suggested that the lines start to begin to think about how to start cruising.  Considering the necessity to generate plans and then have “simulated” cruises to serve as dress rehearsals — it seems unlikely that any regular cruises could sail until after Jan. 1.

 

I think we are beyond the point of "start to begin to think". We are at the point for cruise companies to prove their plans they have been working on, will work.

 

I do agree, I will not be a part of the very first round. Not because I am scared of the virus. I would rather see a good indicator that there isn't going to be all of this panic quarantining before I go. I can deal with a few restrictions. I'm not dealing with over the top nonsense.

[Hlitner]

The CDC's document is fascinating.  They do a pretty good job laying out the history of cruising and COVID, explaining the "whys" of the risk associated with cruising and COVID, and then laying out a framework to resume very limited cruising.  And "limited" it is with cruises not to exceed 7 days.  The cruise lines will follow these guidelines because they have no alternative but, at least in the short term, there is enough in those guidelines to turn off many cruise fans to cruising.   There is no way DW and I would consider spending our money to take a short cruise (we seldom cruise for less then 14 days) with the onboard restrictions imposed by the guidelines.   The only good news in that CDC document is that nobody believes the guidelines are permeant.   As a long time (over 45 years) extensive cruiser we will wait until a vaccine makes those guidelines fade away, or we will look for cruises that are not subject to the guidelines (any cruise that does not touch a US port).  

 

But the CDC's brilliance shines in that document.  It shifts all the blame and responsibility to the cruise lines without ever guaranteeing that the CDC will green light any cruise.  In the final analysis the cruise lines will need to jump through all kinds of hoops and then beg the CDC for approval which they may or may not get.  The restrictions are so onerous as to give the CDC an easy way out where they simply jerk around the cruise industry for many months without ever granting an approval for a real cruise with paying passengers.   Given the details in the guidelines there does not seem to be a clear path for any cruise line to advertise and sell a future cruise (involving US ports) since there is no way a cruise line can know if and when they will ever receive approval to cruise.

 

Hank

[njhorseman]

14 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

The CDC's document is fascinating.  They do a pretty good job laying out the history of cruising and COVID, explaining the "whys" of the risk associated with cruising and COVID, and then laying out a framework to resume very limited cruising.  And "limited" it is with cruises not to exceed 7 days.  The cruise lines will follow these guidelines because they have no alternative but, at least in the short term, there is enough in those guidelines to turn off many cruise fans to cruising.   There is no way DW and I would consider spending our money to take a short cruise (we seldom cruise for less then 14 days) with the onboard restrictions imposed by the guidelines.   The only good news in that CDC document is that nobody believes the guidelines are permeant.   As a long time (over 45 years) extensive cruiser we will wait until a vaccine makes those guidelines fade away, or we will look for cruises that are not subject to the guidelines (any cruise that does not touch a US port).  

 

But the CDC's brilliance shines in that document.  It shifts all the blame and responsibility to the cruise lines without ever guaranteeing that the CDC will green light any cruise.  In the final analysis the cruise lines will need to jump through all kinds of hoops and then beg the CDC for approval which they may or may not get.  The restrictions are so onerous as to give the CDC an easy way out where they simply jerk around the cruise industry for many months without ever granting an approval for a real cruise with paying passengers.   Given the details in the guidelines there does not seem to be a clear path for any cruise line to advertise and sell a future cruise (involving US ports) since there is no way a cruise line can know if and when they will ever receive approval to cruise.

 

Hank

I have no doubt that this is the CDC's very clever response to the White House's refusal to allow the No Sail Order to be extended into February. It virtually assures that it will take at least that long for the cruise lines to meet the order's requirements and resume cruising on a limited basis.

 

However I disagree with your last sentence because the cruise lines have been advertising and selling future cruises that they knew were never going to take place, or at best had at most a minuscule chance of taking place, throughout the pandemic and the life of the CDC's No Sail Order. If anything this new CDC order provides the opportunity for the cruise lines and travel agencies to finally tout that they see the light at the end of the tunnel. Within hours of the order's publication I've received emails from travel agencies doing just that. Do you think the average person is going to read the 40 page CDC order and realize what it actually means for the cruise industry? I think not.