Will NCL survive the COVID-19?

[ziggyuk]

On 12/12/2020 at 1:22 PM, 4774Papa said:

Pfizer and Moderna vaccines require two doses per person.  AstraZeneca will require one.  

 

That is not correct, AstraZeneca is 2 doses or possibly 1.5 doses, whichever is approved.

[HuliHuli]

On 12/12/2020 at 8:22 AM, 4774Papa said:

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, said average, healthy Americans could expect to get their first doses as early as April and through July,

And, Dr. Fauci said:

“The bars, the restaurants … those are the things that drive the community spread,” BUT the contact data in NY indicates that <2% of the state’s cases are traceable to those locations;

"There's no reason to be walking around with a mask," BUT later flipped on that.

Over the summer, he said in his "expert opinion," [schools] should stay closed, BUT last month he reversed his opinion on that.

“If you are a healthy young person, there is no reason if you want to go on a cruise ship, go on a cruise ship.”  On that one, I agree, but he’s flipped on that as well.  And the list goes on and on.

Personally, I put much more stock in what Admiral Giroir, Assistant Secretary at HHS says, who recently pointed out that “Dr. Anthony Fauci, said publicly that he supported the new lockdowns in California.”  However, Giroir referenced Fauci and the other Task Force members in saying that they have not seen “any data that says you need to shutdown outdoor dining or outdoor bars.” He said that the science does not support such categorical lockdowns.

[ziggyuk]

16 hours ago, BirdTravels said:

AstraZeneca and J&J who are still trying to get their vaccines through trials.

 

 

 

No, AstraZeneca are awaiting approval they were about three weeks behind Pfizer in announcing the trial results.

[BirdTravels]

35 minutes ago, ziggyuk said:

 

No, AstraZeneca are awaiting approval they were about three weeks behind Pfizer in announcing the trial results.

Last I saw, AstraZeneca with a 70% effectively was going back and try to combine their vaccine with the Russian vaccine to get something competitive. Not ready for prime time. 

They are going to request regulatory permission to deploy to the UK, Brazil and India. 

 

J&J just cut their study by 1/3 to try and finish by January. And maybe in position to request an Emergency use in February.  They only got 38K of the 60K study candidates required. J&J are Now proposing to cut to a 40K pool to try and get to done. 

Edited December 13, 2020 by BirdTravels

[ziggyuk]

20 minutes ago, BirdTravels said:

Last I saw, AstraZeneca with a 70% effectively was going back and try to combine their vaccine with the Russian vaccine to get something competitive. Not ready for prime time. 

 

That's just factually incorrect AstraZeneca (Just like Moderna) is going through the approval process and 70% was the average (which in itself was much better than expected), with a 1.5 dose as opposed to a 2 dose it achieved 90%.
Once approved it will cost $2 a shot, can be stored in a normal fridge and is 90% effective.

Edited December 13, 2020 by ziggyuk

[ace2542]

1 hour ago, BirdTravels said:

Last I saw, AstraZeneca with a 70% effectively was going back and try to combine their vaccine with the Russian vaccine to get something competitive. Not ready for prime time. 

They are going to request regulatory permission to deploy to the UK, Brazil and India. 

 

J&J just cut their study by 1/3 to try and finish by January. And maybe in position to request an Emergency use in February.  They only got 38K of the 60K study candidates required. J&J are Now proposing to cut to a 40K pool to try and get to done. 

Understandable when you consider some of these companies will reach the marketplace only to discover there is not much of a marketplace left as other companies have beaten them to the punch. And I will it say once again just because a country orders vaccine does not mean they have to stand behind the order unless they have paid upfront.

[ziggyuk]

16 minutes ago, ace2542 said:

Understandable when you consider some of these companies will reach the marketplace only to discover there is not much of a marketplace left as other companies have beaten them to the punch. And I will it say once again just because a country orders vaccine does not mean they have to stand behind the order unless they have paid upfront.

 

Beaten to the punch & no marketplace! Are you serious?
Exactly how long to you anticipate it will take to vaccinate the worlds population? 24 hrs? 

[sfaaa]

I guess a better question may be that how many poorer, less developed countries can pay for the vaccine upfront with cash?

[ace2542]

12 hours ago, ziggyuk said:

 

Beaten to the punch & no marketplace! Are you serious?
Exactly how long to you anticipate it will take to vaccinate the worlds population? 24 hrs? 

Some vaccines might not hit the marketplace till  2022 I have heard. There might not be much of a marketplace left by then. The industrialised nations markets will be gone by then and the front runners will be targeting their remaning efforts if possible to the poorer markets.

[ziggyuk]

13 minutes ago, ace2542 said:

Some vaccines might not hit the marketplace till  2022 I have heard. There might not be much of a marketplace left by then. The industrialised nations markets will be gone by then and the front runners will be targeting their remaning efforts if possible to the poorer markets.

 

If they don't make it to market by 2022 that's their problem and it's hardly being "beaten to the punch", it certainly does not apply to AstraZeneca who's approval decision is imminent or J&J for that matter and those were the two companies being discussed.

 

Frankly, by the time we get to 2022 it won't be about who came to market first it will be about the quality of the product along with cost, storage, side effects and efficiency.

 

The marketplace will be lost for vaccines that need to be stored at -70 when new ones arrive that can be stored in a regular fridge, so Pfizer will be long gone by 2022 if they can't improve it's storage.

 

We could may by lining up for our boosters by 2022, who knows?

Edited December 14, 2020 by ziggyuk

[ace2542]

18 minutes ago, ziggyuk said:

 

If they don't make it to market by 2022 that's their problem and it's hardly being "beaten to the punch", it certainly does not apply to AstraZeneca who's approval decision is imminent or J&J for that matter and those were the two companies being discussed.

 

Frankly, by the time we get to 2022 it won't be about who came to market first it will be about the quality of the product along with cost, storage, side effects and efficiency.

 

The marketplace will be lost for vaccines that need to be stored at -70 when new ones arrive that can be stored in a regular fridge, so Pfizer will be long gone by 2022 if they can't improve it's storage.

 

We could may by lining up for our boosters by 2022, who knows?

But the rollout for the UK is moving pretty quick at least it seems to be. My father 82 year old type 2 tablet diabetic just got a call like 5 mins ago to go Wednesday to a surgery in our home town. And I thought he was group 2 at least. He is not in a care home or front line person.

[ziggyuk]

17 minutes ago, ace2542 said:

But the rollout for the UK is moving pretty quick at least it seems to be. My father 82 year old type 2 tablet diabetic just got a call like 5 mins ago to go Wednesday to a surgery in our home town. And I thought he was group 2 at least. He is not in a care home or front line person.

 

That's great news, it's great the doctors surgeries have now started rolling this out, they are in the best position to know who is a priority.

[ziggyuk]

I can just imagine what will be next.....

 

You wait, they have been going at speed to get the vaccinations done, next there will be a shortage for a second booster shot, mark my words.

[hamrag]

3 hours ago, ziggyuk said:

I can just imagine what will be next.....

 

You wait, they have been going at speed to get the vaccinations done, next there will be a shortage for a second booster shot, mark my words.

I sincerely hope not, but wouldn't surprise me given the government pandemic shambles across the last 9 months!

[SeaportMike]

On 12/12/2020 at 12:03 AM, BirdTravels said:

There are hundreds of millions of people in the United States. And billions worldwide. 

 

100 million doses = 15% of the US (need 700 million doses) 

100 million doses = 0.6% of the World (need 15.6 billion doses)

Wait the US Population is just over 300 million, and the the world is just over 7 billion.. https://www.census.gov/popclock/

[ziggyuk]

21 minutes ago, SeaportMike said:

Wait the US Population is just over 300 million, and the the world is just over 7 billion.. https://www.census.gov/popclock/

 

It needs 2 shots, so the world population is spot on at 7.8 billion x 2, the US figures are not that far out, I suspect a bit of rounding up was involved.

[hamrag]

9 hours ago, SeaportMike said:

Wait the US Population is just over 300 million, and the the world is just over 7 billion.. https://www.census.gov/popclock/

 

Which, presumably, is the reason BirdTravels quoted numbers that clearly represent such!!🙄

[BermudaBound2014]

Meanwhile NCL is raising another 500Million 😩

 

NCL is "proposing to sell $500 million aggregate principal amount of its senior notes due 2026 in a private offering that is exempt from the registration requirements of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”)."

 

Cash burn is estimated at 175M per month. 

 

Nasdaq analysis still have it listed as a 'buy'.  

 

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/24047-norwegian-cruise-line-holdings-to-raise-another-500-million.html

[BirdTravels]

On 12/13/2020 at 7:42 PM, sfaaa said:

I guess a better question may be that how many poorer, less developed countries can pay for the vaccine upfront with cash?

Right now, the vaccines are going to the wealthiest countries. 51% of the available vaccine is going to 13% of world’s population according to ABC news. It may be well into 2022 before other counties get a lot of vaccines. 

 

 

Edited December 15, 2020 by BirdTravels

[Georgie562]

Will NCL survive the COVID-19?

 

Yes as the virus only damages/kills humans/organs not steel cruise ships.

[4774Papa]

On 12/13/2020 at 5:15 PM, ziggyuk said:

 

That is not correct, AstraZeneca is 2 doses or possibly 1.5 doses, whichever is approved.

Right, my mistake, it is Johnson and Johnson that will have one dose.

Unlike the other candidates, however, the vaccine developed by Johnson & Johnson's subsidiary Janssen won't require two doses.

[4774Papa]

On 12/12/2020 at 9:14 AM, 4774Papa said:

More good news:

 

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and Department of Defense announced on Friday that they will purchase 100 million additional doses of Moderna's coronavirus vaccine candidate. 

...The purchase will bring the total doses of Moderna's vaccine owned by the federal government to 200 million, HHS said... 

An FDA advisory panel is scheduled to meet Dec. 17 to review the application. 

By the end of 2020, it expects to have approximately 20 million vaccine doses available in the U.S... 

“Securing another 100 million doses from Moderna by June 2021 further expands our supply of doses across the Operation Warp Speed portfolio of vaccines,” said HHS Secretary Alex Azar said in a statement Friday. 

“This new federal purchase can give Americans even greater confidence we will have enough supply to vaccinate all Americans who want it by the second quarter of 2021.”

It was announced on TV that by the end of February that 100 million doses would be available from Pfizer for the USA.   We will wait in line for hours to get it.

[mek]

On 12/15/2020 at 5:31 PM, 4774Papa said:

It was announced on TV that by the end of February that 100 million doses would be available from Pfizer for the USA.   We will wait in line for hours to get it.

If people can camp out for Black Friday bargains to save $50 on a TV, then it seems to me that waiting in line a few hours for something than may save your life or prevent serious illness is worth it.

[zdcatc12]

On 12/15/2020 at 4:31 PM, 4774Papa said:

It was announced on TV that by the end of February that 100 million doses would be available from Pfizer for the USA.   We will wait in line for hours to get it.

I think that it will be by reservation, especially the Pfizer one, due to the time limits involved with it.

[4774Papa]

On 12/13/2020 at 1:02 AM, BirdTravels said:

 

Yes, the initial plan was to spread vaccine orders across multiple manufacturers. Only two of those manufacturers have been able to bring their vaccines to market. All of the rest of the US orders have been placed with companies like AstraZeneca and J&J who are still trying to get their vaccines through trials. The US is being forced to buy more Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, but these orders will be fulfilled after existing orders from other countries (back of the line).

 

Yes, by definition, a new federal purchase will increase confidence since, at this time, failures of other manufacturers (like AstraZeneca and J&J) to bring viable products to market means that the US does not have sufficient vaccines to inoculate healthy people. And, by the time the US gets to healthy people, it will likely be less effective vaccines from yet-to-be-approved manufactures. Remember, the FDA will approve a vaccine if it is effective in at least 50% of the test subjects. 94% effectivity is a bonus. 

 

 

Perhaps you are correct, but the higher the vaccination rate, the safer it is to resume travel and normal living.