WILL PRICES EVER COME DOWN?

[HMR74]

Last August-4 months ago I cancelled my B2B with NRD just before the final payment was due. I did not want to pay in the big bucks on 2 14 day cruises to have tied up with Celebrity/RCL with that such risk . As it turned out, the next week they called the first cruise and the week after the second, although many of the ports including starting and ending points already had said they were closed to intl travel.

So no L&S or 125% for me.

 

So I booked a B2B in Spring 2022 to use the 1800 of FCC.

 

I booked it knowing the high prices and the package to get indulge and have 800 of OBC use it or lose it--which means to use it I have to buy the ships excursions of other high prices stuff we would not ordinarily use.

 

I will cancel the B2b I booked and eat the FCC if I have to. These new prices are steep and IMHO  kills the competitive nature with other upscale vacations.

 

The way this is priced out is that its 65% higher than the B2b of 28 days I cancelled for a B2b for 25 days 14 months later-Solstice class, Aqua, internet streaming and prem drinks and grants included.

It's a matter of perceived value and we like Celebrity, However.....

 

I also have plenty of time to see how this develops and it will be interesting to read reviews of perceived value from early on guests. eg, is AI the key to luxury brand improvement or are there other noticeable "experience"  improvements.

 

I also have to look at a suite again, to se what the net price would be. Last week I looked and it was a hefty increase.

 

A side issue-Celebrity must have had a lot of turnover in its sales group to general public. Each time I call I get a different answer to the same question.

 

I have open:

the Birthday discount (got on one cruise but not the other)

the 5% discount

the B2b discount

 

Also, the FCC was deducted from cruise price top line, not shown as non refundable deposit, which technically means  if the price goes down it has to go down by more than 450pp per cruise to have any effect. I think the FCC for the prior deposit s/b shown as a deposit for this cruise. Otherwise I just gifted 1800 to Celebrity.

 

What have others experienced on how fcc is applied.

 

 

 

[LGW59]

8 minutes ago, HMR74 said:

Last August-4 months ago I cancelled my B2B with NRD just before the final payment was due. I did not want to pay in the big bucks on 2 14 day cruises to have tied up with Celebrity/RCL with that such risk . As it turned out, the next week they called the first cruise and the week after the second, although many of the ports including starting and ending points already had said they were closed to intl travel.

So no L&S or 125% for me.

 

So I booked a B2B in Spring 2022 to use the 1800 of FCC.

 

I booked it knowing the high prices and the package to get indulge and have 800 of OBC use it or lose it--which means to use it I have to buy the ships excursions of other high prices stuff we would not ordinarily use.

 

I will cancel the B2b I booked and eat the FCC if I have to. These new prices are steep and IMHO  kills the competitive nature with other upscale vacations.

 

The way this is priced out is that its 65% higher than the B2b of 28 days I cancelled for a B2b for 25 days 14 months later-Solstice class, Aqua, internet streaming and prem drinks and grants included.

It's a matter of perceived value and we like Celebrity, However.....

 

I also have plenty of time to see how this develops and it will be interesting to read reviews of perceived value from early on guests. eg, is AI the key to luxury brand improvement or are there other noticeable "experience"  improvements.

 

I also have to look at a suite again, to se what the net price would be. Last week I looked and it was a hefty increase.

 

A side issue-Celebrity must have had a lot of turnover in its sales group to general public. Each time I call I get a different answer to the same question.

 

I have open:

the Birthday discount (got on one cruise but not the other)

the 5% discount

the B2b discount

 

Also, the FCC was deducted from cruise price top line, not shown as non refundable deposit, which technically means  if the price goes down it has to go down by more than 450pp per cruise to have any effect. I think the FCC for the prior deposit s/b shown as a deposit for this cruise. Otherwise I just gifted 1800 to Celebrity.

 

What have others experienced on how fcc is applied.

 

 

 

Many people have had such different experiences L&S, re-booking without etc.  It should not be that way and I do not fault the customer service rep, in my case at Celebrity because that is how we book our cruises.  I feel as though they have not adequately trained some of their staff, causing confusion and frustration for their customers and much angst for the front facing staff.  

Edited December 27, 2020 by LGW59

[Ken the cruiser]

13 minutes ago, HMR74 said:

Also, the FCC was deducted from cruise price top line, not shown as non refundable deposit, which technically means  if the price goes down it has to go down by more than 450pp per cruise to have any effect. I think the FCC for the prior deposit s/b shown as a deposit for this cruise. Otherwise I just gifted 1800 to Celebrity.

 

What have others experienced on how fcc is applied.

We have found on our future cruises where we have applied FCC that significantly reduced the cruise fare price listed on the confirmation, the cruise insurance price also went down to almost nothing. For example on our 13 day 2022 TP, the "cruise fare" after applying the FCC was $100 and the Vacation Protection Plan was $29. When we initially booked it, the cruise fare was $2,514 and the insurance was $149.

Edited December 27, 2020 by Ken the cruiser

[zitsky]

31 minutes ago, LGW59 said:

The NRD's are ridiculous!

 

NRDs should normally be cheaper, yes?  What's a typical before and after price for the same cruise?  I'm hoping for a fare sale on Jan 1, 2021.  Not going to happen?

[ECCruise]

40 minutes ago, LGW59 said:

The NRD's are ridiculous!

Yep.
And we will NEVER book another NRD.  Once burned and forever shy.

Another reason that of the 11 sailings we have booked, only 2 are with =X=. 

In this environment:

1)  No way I am booking a NRD

2)  No way I am paying the high prices to start and then the bonehead prices for Refundable.

[ECCruise]

11 minutes ago, zitsky said:

 

NRDs should normally be cheaper, yes?  What's a typical before and after price for the same cruise?  I'm hoping for a fare sale on Jan 1, 2021.  Not going to happen?

Varies a lot.  Have seen some in the $300 or so range for a 7 day Caribbean (which we don't do) and over $1000 for a longer in Europe and Asia, which we do, but won't pay that kind of dough.

Edited December 27, 2020 by ECCruise

[zitsky]

1 minute ago, ECCruise said:

Yep.
And we will NEVER book another NRD.  Once burned and forever shy.

Another reason that of the 11 sailings we have booked, only 2 are with =X=. 

In this environment:

1)  No way I am booking a NRD

2)  No way I am paying the high prices to start and then the bonehead prices for Refundable.

 

I don't mind paying $300 more for refundable but I have seen up to $700 on some sailings.  Still shopping.

[LGW59]

1 minute ago, zitsky said:

 

I don't mind paying $300 more for refundable but I have seen up to $700 on some sailings.  Still shopping.

I have seen it as high as $1400 for 12-14 day Europe/Med/TA.  No way I would tie up that kind of money for the cruises we have booked.

[LGW59]

11 minutes ago, ECCruise said:

Varies a lot.  Have seen some in the $300 or so range for a 7 day Caribbean (which we don't do) and over $1000 for a longer in Europe and Asia, which we do, but won't pay that kind of dough.

Just did a mock booking for 12-day Norwegian Fjord's, Summit Sky Suite, 308SF including balcony.  Total cost $19,115 🥴 with $900 NRD.  We have an 14-day EDGE TA, Sky Suite AFT 476SF, for THOUSANDS less than this.  WTH that is so crazy!!

[HMR74]

12 minutes ago, LGW59 said:

I have seen it as high as $1400 for 12-14 day Europe/Med/TA.  No way I would tie up that kind of money for the cruises we have booked.

when they apply the fcc to the top line, then when prices come down they wil say "your price was lower"

 

eg, I pay 9000 for a cruise top line and apply 5000, so net its 4000--then if the fare comes down 1000, they will not change the 4000 to 3000-since the new cruise is 9000 now down to 8000, so we get left holding the bag. I spoke with them for an hour the other today and the reps and supervisor just did not comprehend what I was saying. I want them to show the Fcc as if it is a payment which it is if your fcc was in the amount of your former payments. I can see the 25% (from the 125% gross up) being a reduction of cruise price though.

Otherwise I am never going to see any price reduction if my 9000 new cruise (with these higher prices) comes down.

Or if I walk away from theFCC, because the new price is lower I still lose the 1800.

[HMR74]

and right now I am on phone with Celebrity--on the 5% discount from club members. I booked these 2022 trips on the day they were deployed, using their terms, and they offered the discount the next day.

My "penalty": for booking on day of deployment (so I could get the same cabin for B2b, is 5% of a big double fare, about $800)

I have to speak with a supervisor or manager -

 

everything is like pulling teeth with Celebrity and has been. Thankfully the on board experience is pretty flawless to me . Much better than management and administrative.

 

 

[LGW59]

Just now, HMR74 said:

and right now I am on phone with Celebrity--on the 5% discount from club members. I booked these 2022 trips on the day they were deployed, using their terms, and they offered the discount the next day.

My "penalty": for booking on day of deployment (so I could get the same cabin for B2b, is 5% of a big double fare, about $800)

I have to speak with a supervisor or manager -

 

everything is like pulling teeth with Celebrity and has been. Thankfully the on board experience is pretty flawless to me . Much better than management and administrative.

 

 

Don't they have the we will honor any future price reduction or did they do away with that?? 

[LGW59]

23 minutes ago, HMR74 said:

and right now I am on phone with Celebrity--on the 5% discount from club members. I booked these 2022 trips on the day they were deployed, using their terms, and they offered the discount the next day.

My "penalty": for booking on day of deployment (so I could get the same cabin for B2b, is 5% of a big double fare, about $800)

I have to speak with a supervisor or manager -

 

everything is like pulling teeth with Celebrity and has been. Thankfully the on board experience is pretty flawless to me . Much better than management and administrative.

 

 

Please keep us posted, very interested to hear how it all shakes out for you!

[zitsky]

I just looked at what should have been my L&S.  9 to 10 day Caribbean cruise.  It's $2,000 more for a similar cruise.

[Moby Jones]

On 12/18/2020 at 8:17 PM, elaineb said:

What are your thoughts on the above.  They seem to be pushing that there will never be any sales and the price is the price (all inclusive).  But does anyone see these outrageous prices coming down in the future?

I haven't read the whole thread but this is my opinion. 

Prices will remain very high for quite some time. We've had a large number of cancellations and so there will be huge demand as people are desperate to go on holiday. Then you need to factor in lift and shift re-bookings and you'll see that sailings for the next 18 months to two years will have higher than normal demand. 

As vaccination programs roll out the number of Covid cases will reduce. As a result travel restrictions will be relaxed. This will give people more confidence to book holidays and demand will increase further so if you do see a deal in late 2021 or beyond that you're happy with I'd strongly consider booking it now. 

 

[mac_tlc]

On 12/27/2020 at 6:08 PM, HMR74 said:

when they apply the fcc to the top line, then when prices come down they wil say "your price was lower"

 

eg, I pay 9000 for a cruise top line and apply 5000, so net its 4000--then if the fare comes down 1000, they will not change the 4000 to 3000-since the new cruise is 9000 now down to 8000, so we get left holding the bag. I spoke with them for an hour the other today and the reps and supervisor just did not comprehend what I was saying. I want them to show the Fcc as if it is a payment which it is if your fcc was in the amount of your former payments. I can see the 25% (from the 125% gross up) being a reduction of cruise price though.

Otherwise I am never going to see any price reduction if my 9000 new cruise (with these higher prices) comes down.

Or if I walk away from theFCC, because the new price is lower I still lose the 1800.

Their application of the FCC is why I am waiting until just before final payment to have them applied, or as late as the FCC will allow. That way you can still get a price reduction if it were to occur. 
 

Although with current conditions , I don’t expect many reductions. 
 

mac_tlc

Edited December 29, 2020 by mac_tlc

[HMR74]

1 hour ago, mac_tlc said:

Their application of the FCC is why I am waiting until just before final payment to have them applied, or as late as the FCC will allow. That way you can still get a price reduction if it were to occur. 
 

Although with current conditions , I don’t expect many reductions. 
 

mac_tlc

Yep--I follow your thoughts, however, that would mean I have an additional 900 tied up per cruise.

I already have 4400 tied up with "deposits" at risk.

 

We had to cancel an Infinity TA spring 2019. That cost was 3300 Aqua. Now the cost is 7900 Aqua on Reflection, however, it includes premium drinks and internet and an 800 OBC.  So adjust it down to 7100 for OBC, 6800 for internet (old prices)  and I call it 1400 for drink package so down to 5400 apples to apples, and its a NRD vs 3300 refundable, call that 3000 refundable (they did not have that then) .  I think that's a roughly 80% difference, which is covered by a nicer ship, inflation and they have to be putting in virus protocol costs.

I also think we are about to see huge inflation in food prices. And food and oil are the to major variable costs, aside from capital investment in ships.

 

Te real questions are what are other cruise lines doing and how do we as customers  view this from a value perspective, which is very much an individual decision.

 

The last 2 cruises we took did not come down in price, in fact went up by 16%. The 2019 TA came down 3 times in less than two weeks just inside the 90 days. And that's a cat and mouse game both sides. That's why retirees in Florida can easily grab some real deals. Or used to be able to.

Edited December 29, 2020 by HMR74

[zitsky]

How do you decide on a fair price?  Are people comparing the price a year ago to now?  Those of us without that info have to guess what is a fair price.  I looked at a 2021 cruise that seemed reasonable but it was $350 pp per day.  An Asian cruise in 2022 seemed expensive but was only $250 pp per day.

 

Edit:  I see the post above me, which is very helpful.

Edited December 29, 2020 by zitsky

[HMR74]

On inflation.

If in the US, our government reports less than 2% inflation, however, there are two websites that reconstruct inflation that show the US actual inflation to be more than 2%, actually more like 7-8% or more.

www.chapwoodindex.com and www.shadowstats.com

 

I am pretty certain cruise lines hedge oil prices just like airlines do.

 

Our value assessment has to take that into account and where we are in life.

 

eg, the price is steep for the cruises we are looking at, but on the other hand, once this virus issue is cleared up, cruising is still a pretty stress-less way of traveling, compared to say staying in different cities and packing and unpacking (we did that type of trip in China with 5 flights and one train trip and 2 river boat trips years ago--it was wonderful but exhausting). That 17 day trip was far more than even the current prices on cruises.

 

So again, the value  decision is individually based

 

But then again when you spend time in cities you get a local flavor on food for example which you do not get on a cruise ship-by the 11th day you see meals repeated (which is just a realistic fact of life on big ships)

 

Edited December 29, 2020 by HMR74

[HMR74]

I am still waiting for the call back from a higher level person on the discount. Got the B2B price adjustment, got another bonus for 200 each, and double points. 

 

now, here is the rub. 
 

I was on a B2B for 28 days in aqua and my gross cost was 11,400 incl internet, prem drinks, grats and 300 each cruise for obc and the TA worked  in more  obc which was refundable if unused at end of trip.say 1000 for the 2 cruises.so net cosr would have been the 11400 minus 1000 or 10400.

 

not bad.

 

my 2 new cruises are 16 months later, 25 vs 28 and one is a repositioning, and my gross ai cost with indulge in aqua is around 17000

 

huge difference. And nothing forthcoming. There is 1600 obc use it or lose it which brings it down to 15400. So 50% more . 
 

i am not real comfortable with that price increase. At some point i will need to make up my mind.but now leaning to jumping ship.

 

btw, nrd was a 900 reduction in cabin price which was a good deal and ok risk, esp if we had insurance that covers everthing. Except now with covid, and its only money.

 

 

 

Edited December 31, 2020 by HMR74

[zitsky]

If you are not constantly checking, it's hard to know what is a fair price.

[HMR74]

55 minutes ago, zitsky said:

If you are not constantly checking, it's hard to know what is a fair price.

Yeah, however the problem is unless you get the lift and shift, the replacement cost of cruising is costing  far more than what you had.

 

Its a personal value proposition. I chose to cancel at the final payment due date, and potentially lose my nrd deposit (which was 900 per cruise) and since I expected to cruise unless there was an illness--which would have been insured, I had no real downside--until covid (I have another 2600 in nrd for a family cruise later 2021)-that sounded like a good deal-price came down 900 and it was nrd of 900).

 

However now as we all have seen the cost to replace is wild on almost any cruise.

So the real answer is either you pay up, or not cruise. Or not cruise as often.

 

I have a feeling once the dust settles there will be fewer cruisers at these current prices and due to slowing global economy and perceived or real health risks.

 

The "experts" in the airline industry are already saying at least 3 years to full recovery.

 

I guess we will see.

 

The concept of spending considerably more to use the FCC is questionable. Even the 125% FCC would have left me "short" and frankly, I do not like the idea of having sizeable deposits with any  cruise line or airline right now. Or most any business right now.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 31, 2020 by HMR74

[zitsky]

I went from a canceled 9 night Caribbean cruise $4000 (12/2020) and was offered an 11 night ABC cruise now priced at $7000.  Ouch!  I see the problem now.

 

Sometimes the charge for refundable deposit is ridiculous.  Seems to be 10% of the total price.  I've seen as low as $400 but also see $700 or more.

[HMR74]

22 minutes ago, zitsky said:

I went from a canceled 9 night Caribbean cruise $4000 (12/2020) and was offered an 11 night ABC cruise now priced at $7000.  Ouch!  I see the problem now.

 

Sometimes the charge for refundable deposit is ridiculous.  Seems to be 10% of the total price.  I've seen as low as $400 but also see $700 or more.

I had the 2 cruises  where in return for the non refundable they reduced the price by 900-much better optics than saying charge more for refundable. I think they are doing things by trial and error now. Not an easy or fun business to be in now.

 

-I thought that 900 for a 2 week cruise was a pretty good trade off especially as we are serious when we book a cruise. We have cancelled twice over the years inside 90 days-both real health issues. and the insurance covered that. Long term actually better off not getting the insurance if you cruise frequently.

 

I went from a 14 and a 14 day cruise to a 14 and 11. Similar Solstice class aqua.

I do not know their pricing strategy (I used to do pricing strategy for the mfg company I was at) but most folks do not have unlimited money and even for those "comfortable" ya have to ask if you are spending money wisely.

 

That said, we all have emotions.

 

 and that said, if the cruise lines have a lower occupancy rate for the foreseeable future, that would make the cruises more enjoyable for those that do go .

 

We should read the financial statements of the cruise lines -very interesting data in so far as costs, eg, RCL is over 90% occupancy and a lot of that is some over 100% due to holidays were kids are in same cabin as parents. (only once did we stick the kids in an inside cabin across from our balcony cabin, after that we had connecting balcony cabins-and the last trip with kids was panama canal when vision of the Seas was new. Next Nov is kids and grandkids on Oasis for an intimate cruise with 6700 other folks.

 

But the financial of all of them disclose customers deposits which is pretty significant for them all--free working capital for them. and its in the billions for larger companies. Really interesting to see how they tell the investors how the companies planned to make more money and retain repeat business and get new business.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 31, 2020 by HMR74

[HMR74]

after a few minutes to think about what I just wrote, I am guessing that part of the increase is for the new health protocols and part for inflation and part for they do not expect to be sailing with high occupancy in the near future.

 

eg, if distancing is required, then they cannot be nearly full, otherwise dinner will have to start at 4 PM and go to 11PM, and the rather than 2 shows at night, 4 will be needed. Not going to work and the same is true pool side or excursions.

 

Pretty soon we will hear from the "expert" CDC on what cruise lines can or cannot do. Including if scaled back cruising can begin in March, and what it will look like.

 

The first reviews when they do start should be interesting.

 

The only time I felt crowded on Solstice ships was muster. Depending where you were mustering.