Will P&O now delay announcements for future cruise pauses?

[majortom10]

10 minutes ago, Selbourne said:

I think that cruise prices are distorted (over inflated) at present due to two factors. Firstly, as you say,  the abundance of FCC which people are assigning to future cruises, almost regardless of price or likelihood of sailing, and secondly the fact that cruise lines are restricting capacity, assuming that social distancing measures will be required for the foreseeable future.

 

I would like to think that social distancing measures may no longer be needed from 2022 onwards and therefore cruise lines will suddenly be able to open up the remaining capacity. If cruises are currently being sold at two-thirds capacity then, when that happens, there is an immediate increase in capacity of 50%. At that point, supply and demand kicks in and prices will fall.

 

Cruise lines have been relying on the ‘new to cruising’ market, which was booming prior to the pandemic but IMO will be a lot slower to recover than the ‘established cruiser’ market. I think that some cruise lines, including P&O, may have an over capacity issue for the next few years and they will want to get bums on seats, as it were. 

I dont think P&O will have a problem with over capacity in the long term because I think that Aurora and Arcadia's days are numbered and will be sold by P&O prior or not long after the arrival of Arvia.

[tring]

1 hour ago, FamilyCruiserUK said:

I am sure that the supplies of all the different vaccines will soon become available to buy. So maybe business will start to purchase for their staff. 

 

Would be nice to hear some ideas from.the cruise companies. 

 

Can they survice another year without sailing and all these cancelled cruises FCCs are adding up making the prices skyrocket for 22 and 23......

 

That is certainly being done in the US, well I am not clear about the finances of it, but the vaccine is being provided to companies who are vaccinating their staff.  The US Government have said it will be supplied free to those who are not covered in other ways (e.g. insurance).   My niece in Utah has a husband who has already been done by his employer and she is hoping to follow when they get to the stage of vaccinating the spouses of their staff.  She has MS, but is not in any high priority group in the normal state procedures in Utah - it seems all states have made their own priority groups and she would have fared better in some other states.

 

Will not be happening in the UK though until the NHS has used what is required, as has been said by our government. 

[wowzz]

34 minutes ago, majortom10 said:

I dont think P&O will have a problem with over capacity in the long term because I think that Aurora and Arcadia's days are numbered and will be sold by P&O prior or not long after the arrival of Arvia.

But that implies that those who cruise with Aurora and Arcadia would switch to the two new ships, which will emphatically not  be the case. P&O have an enormous amount of work to do, to attract new cruisers  

[majortom10]

38 minutes ago, wowzz said:

But that implies that those who cruise with Aurora and Arcadia would switch to the two new ships, which will emphatically not  be the case. P&O have an enormous amount of work to do, to attract new cruisers  

Heard the same arguments when Ventura was announced by the Captain on Arcadia at the Captain's cocktail party. Many boo's and moans "its too big" and "you will never get me on a ship that size". Doesnt seem to have done P&O much damage as they went on to build Azura and even bigger Britannia which have become very popular and always sail full. Think many who are able to cruise, taking into account Arcadia and Aurora are adults only and are generally older clientele" and many will stop cruising altogether anyway many will move on to other ships for their loyalty to P&O and Britishness of the ships. When they look around at the market for similar sized ships as Arcadia or Aurora and see the limited market and the higher cost of smaller ships they will change their minds. Not everyone wants to sail on Fred Olsen and most other cruise lines are more expensive.

[davecttr]

1 hour ago, WECRUISEUK said:

An issue for re-starting cruising is not so much the staff and passengers being vaccinated but the destinations,how long before the're ready?Will we start with scenic cruising only?Perhaps that would be a compromise worth trying to start the season off......Norway would be good.

Norway would be ideal for scenic cruising, IF the ship actually visits any spectacular scenery. This would mean extended cruising in the fjords such as the sail ins to Gieranger, Olden and Flam, Just visiting coastal cities like Bergen, Stavanger, Alesund, Haugosund etc is not visiting spectacular scenery IMO. Having visited those places several times I will probably stay aboard but the scenic cruising has to be part of the holiday. Crossing the North Sea is OK as i can whale watch and in the fjords my binoculars, fieldscope and camera will satisfy my wildlife curiosity backed up by the Kindle and to much food and drink. Probably no casino though but I can learn to live without my blackjack fix.

[terrierjohn]

1 hour ago, WECRUISEUK said:

An issue for re-starting cruising is not so much the staff and passengers being vaccinated but the destinations,how long before the're ready?Will we start with scenic cruising only?Perhaps that would be a compromise worth trying to start the season off......Norway would be good.

Greece seems keen to encourage tourism for this summer, I imagine Spain and the Canaries will also follow suit, if so Italy and France won't want to be left out, and Malta is already allowing MSC to dock there.

Of course nothing is certain but if the vaccine proves to be keeping the virus in check, then the tourism industry will be desparate to restart.

[davecttr]

1 hour ago, WECRUISEUK said:

An issue for re-starting cruising is not so much the staff and passengers being vaccinated but the destinations,how long before the're ready?Will we start with scenic cruising only?Perhaps that would be a compromise worth trying to start the season off......Norway would be good.

Ooops! - duplicate post

Edited February 21, 2021 by davecttr

[Selbourne]

1 hour ago, majortom10 said:

I dont think P&O will have a problem with over capacity in the long term because I think that Aurora and Arcadia's days are numbered and will be sold by P&O prior or not long after the arrival of Arvia.

Longer term I would agree. I also fear that the clock is ticking for Aurora and Arcadia. However, Iona and Arvia add up to quite a few times the capacity of Aurora and Arcadia. Some industry experts were saying last year that they thought the pandemic could set the cruise industry back 10 years. I’m a bit more optimistic, but still feel it will be around 5 years, so even if Aurora and Arcadia go, I don’t think they will sell out every cruise over the next 5 years, especially if ships the size of Iona are going to be doing repetitive short itineraries such as the fjords. Obviously none of us know for sure what the future holds, but I predict that some of the current inflated prices are due to the reasons stated earlier and that prices will readjust in future. We have always booked at launch and in recent years those prices have never been bettered right up to sail dates, but I think for the next few years at least that is all going to change. 

[smj777]

2 hours ago, FamilyCruiserUK said:

I am sure that the supplies of all the different vaccines will soon become available to buy. So maybe business will start to purchase for their staff. 

 

Would be nice to hear some ideas from.the cruise companies. 

 

Can they survice another year without sailing and all these cancelled cruises FCCs are adding up making the prices skyrocket for 22 and 23......

Vaccines are already available to buy in the USA, companies are buying them for their employees. Presumably sometime in the future P&O will be able to do the same.

 

[WECRUISEUK]

7 minutes ago, davecttr said:

Norway would be ideal for scenic cruising, IF the ship actually visits any spectacular scenery. This would mean extended cruising in the fjords such as the sail ins to Gieranger, Olden and Flam, Just visiting coastal cities like Bergen, Stavanger, Alesund, Haugosund etc is not visiting spectacular scenery IMO. Having visited those places several times I will probably stay aboard but the scenic cruising has to be part of the holiday. Crossing the North Sea is OK as i can whale watch and in the fjords my binoculars, fieldscope and camera will satisfy my wildlife curiosity backed up by the Kindle and to much food and drink. Probably no casino though but I can learn to live without my blackjack fix.

A good example of the type of scenic cruise we would favour is Arcadia 11-07-21(j110),having been around the fjords before,like you,the scenery in our opinion is stunning.Of course the ports of call will be cancelled,as i said this will be scenic cruising only and i think could be a strong possibility for the start up for P&O.

[wowzz]

1 hour ago, majortom10 said:

Heard the same arguments when Ventura was announced by the Captain on Arcadia at the Captain's cocktail party. Many boo's and moans "its too big" and "you will never get me on a ship that size". Doesnt seem to have done P&O much damage as they went on to build Azura and even bigger Britannia which have become very popular and always sail full. Think many who are able to cruise, taking into account Arcadia and Aurora are adults only and are generally older clientele" and many will stop cruising altogether anyway many will move on to other ships for their loyalty to P&O and Britishness of the ships. When they look around at the market for similar sized ships as Arcadia or Aurora and see the limited market and the higher cost of smaller ships they will change their minds. Not everyone wants to sail on Fred Olsen and most other cruise lines are more expensive.

You are probably correct. However, there is a fair amount of choice for those of us not keen on the mega liners. Princess and Saga spring to mind. Yes, they may be more expensive (especially Saga) but personally I would be prepared to cruise less, but on ships I enjoy.

[jeanlyon]

I think I agree, but Saga's prices are eye-watering, even if they do include things.  Double and more than P&O.  Fred is also a lot more expensive depending on when you book.

[Bloodaxe]

21 minutes ago, jeanlyon said:

I think I agree, but Saga's prices are eye-watering, even if they do include things.  Double and more than P&O.  Fred is also a lot more expensive depending on when you book.

 

I definitely agree, not sure if cruising will be to my taste in the future anyway but the mega ships certainly never will be.

Edited February 21, 2021 by Bloodaxe

[jeanlyon]

Crikey, did I say double P&O?  It's way more than double Just under £4000 pp for 15 nights>  OK, so all inclusive and they include insurance, but even so.

[jeanlyon]

Fred Olsen is looking pretty reasonable after that!

[wowzz]

27 minutes ago, jeanlyon said:

Crikey, did I say double P&O?  It's way more than double Just under £4000 pp for 15 nights>  OK, so all inclusive and they include insurance, but even so.

If you book at launch you get the best prices. We have a 16 day Baltic cruise booked for 2022 at £3200 each. For a balcony cabin (no other choice!) free drinks and wifi, free speciality dining, free transport to the ship etc, I reckon that's a pretty good deal. 

[No pager thank you]

15 minutes ago, jeanlyon said:

Fred Olsen is looking pretty reasonable after that!

I think that, when this is pandemic all over, Fred will pick up quite a lot of the "traditional" P&O custom, given the demise of other alternatives like CMV, even though it is more expensive.  To a lesser extent Saga and similarly a few of the "boutique" lines.

 

Yes, this group are no longer the mainstream of the market all the time, particularly in high season and on the common itineraries, but they still are loyal, in the main.

 

The question for P&O is, does it assume that those eventually dissatisfied with the loss of the remaining smaller ships (and I agree, this is a question of when, not if) will move elsewhere in the Carnival umbrella?  If so, then I'm not sure that the tealeaves are being read correctly. 

 

Could be however that it feels that this is a necessary choice to capture its target market overall.  There is no brand diversification announced with Our Vera, bigger is still seen as better.

 

The reality feels like the "value" (price, per passenger, per night) is going to only be available in the future by going "big." Not yet, but within the 5-10 year window suggested elsewhere.  This is one of the changes which the pandemic may accelerate, we will have to see.

 

[No pager thank you]

I should say, this is not what I would like to see, just what I think will happen...

[wowzz]

1 minute ago, No pager thank you said:

I think that, when this is pandemic all over, Fred will pick up quite a lot of the "traditional" P&O custom, given the demise of other alternatives like CMV, even though it is more expensive.  To a lesser extent Saga and similarly a few of the "boutique" lines.

 

Yes, this group are no longer the mainstream of the market all the time, particularly in high season and on the common itineraries, but they still are loyal, in the main.

 

The question for P&O is, does it assume that those eventually dissatisfied with the loss of the remaining smaller ships (and I agree, this is a question of when, not if) will move elsewhere in the Carnival umbrella?  If so, then I'm not sure that the tealeaves are being read correctly. 

 

Could be however that it feels that this is a necessary choice to capture its target market overall.  There is no brand diversification announced with Our Vera, bigger is still seen as better.

 

The reality feels like the "value" (price, per passenger, per night) is going to only be available in the future by going "big." Not yet, but within the 5-10 year window suggested elsewhere.  This is one of the changes which the pandemic may accelerate, we will have to see.

 

I think that P&O (Carnival) have decided that P&O's brand position is very much going to be in the mass market, "pile it high, sell it cheap" sector. 

Nothing wrong with that, and, from a corporate point of view it probably makes sense, as Princess can then be positioned as a more upmarket alternative, with their "smaller" ships.

Whilst the Arcadia and Aurora lovers will obviously not be happy, Carnival have obviously decided that,  in the scale of things, the loss of those aficionados is not financially significant.  

[arlowood]

Yep for my future cruising (+wife) we will be abandoning P&O if they decide to ditch Aurora & Arcadia. We have no desire to experience the "mass market" attraction of the mega ships.

We will probably choose to cruise only once per year and look at Saga (never cruised with them before) and Fred (cruised with them once a few years back on Boudicca). The Boudicca cruise was OK but let down by the cabin accommodation so I would be interested to see how their new ships are received.

Another option is Viking with whom we have done many river cruises and one ocean cruise. They are certainly well worth revisiting since their ships are akin to the new Saga ones. i.e. all are balcony cabins with even the cheapest grade being very well designed and appointed. The only drawback with Viking is that currently they only have one itinerary, I believe, that involves a departure from  or return to Dover - a flight out or back being involved to complete that particular cruise.

I believe they have new ships on order so maybe in the future they might introduce itineraries that originate and return to the same UK port if there is demand.

[majortom10]

2 hours ago, wowzz said:

You are probably correct. However, there is a fair amount of choice for those of us not keen on the mega liners. Princess and Saga spring to mind. Yes, they may be more expensive (especially Saga) but personally I would be prepared to cruise less, but on ships I enjoy.

How many small ships have Princess got that are same size or smaller than Arcadia/Aurora and they are certainly ahead of P&O for the progress to mega ships. Think Island Princess is the only one left all others are based on Azura/Ventura or Britannia and the newer ships and ordered new build are even bigger.

Edited February 21, 2021 by majortom10

[SeaJane]

Once P&O no longer have Aurora or Arcadia we won’t sail with them again. We always book at least a balcony cabin and in all likelihood will try Saga with the idea of only cruising once a year to offset the higher cost. The larger ‘resort’ ships do not appeal to us.

[wowzz]

3 minutes ago, majortom10 said:

How many small ships have Princess got that are same size or smaller than Arcadia/Aurora and they are certainly ahead of P&O for the progress to mega ships. Think Island Princess is the only one left all others are based on Azura/Ventura or Britannia and the newer ships and ordered new build are even bigger.

The Royal class have about 3600 pax. Still big, but not as big as Iona.

[majortom10]

We cruised on Ventura and Azura maiden voyages and since they were first announced I have heard many P&Oers say "they are too big they will never fill them 52 weeks a year" but they do not seem to have struggled and as long as the pricing is right dont think they will have much trouble filling Iona/Arvia. Just for information on how fickle some P&O cruisers are many moaned about Arcadia saying they werent happy having a HA/Cunard cast off and would never sail on her but she has now become many people's favourite ship. Many who have cruised with P&O for 20+ years have heard all the moans even while on Arcadia/Aurora about bring back Canberra and these ships are too big. Strangely the same ships are now classed as small and loved by many. As the saying goes "there is nothing funnier than folk" especially those that sail on P&O. Met 2 ladies on the first morning of Britannia maiden cruise going around the atrium asking people and making a list of their dislikes of the ship so that they could complain to P&O on their return home.

[majortom10]

12 minutes ago, wowzz said:

The Royal class have about 3600 pax. Still big, but not as big as Iona.

But many are built to the same design or very similar and except for decoration are same as Azura/Ventura, Royal/Regal are same as Britannia. How many complain that if Arcadia/Aurora are sold they will not sail with P&O again so are hardly likely to go with Princess pay higher drinks prices/gratuities and not eat British food on same build ship as Azura/Ventura.

Edited February 21, 2021 by majortom10