Article: "US Cruises Not Likely to Resume Until Fourth Quarter, or Early 2022"

[bitemyfly]

Within in a year a vaccine is developed and in people arms . I know it’s slow , slower in some states than others. That’s the political side of this is not going away.
Back to cruising, there are many now who are vaccinated ,  I know second doses here in Florida are reserved at the first appointment and serval  of ny neighbors have received their second dose , most of my traveling friends  will be fully vaccinated within the month of feb. 

I realize it’s a small segment of population, it’s growing every day,

The industry needs revenue , there is a growing be population of fully vaccinated people which is  potential revenue,  they also need to do test crusies , you would think they be further along . At least in planning.

one would think they could work on things in parallel.( They being both private and central planning gov agencies )
‘there is light at the end of this virus , it’s happening now ., 
 

 

[VentureMan_2000]

On 1/25/2021 at 4:04 PM, HaveWeMetYet said:

Most will be canceled unless out of Florida and maybe Texas thru September.

Which cruise are you on?

I have a May 8th 7-day out of Long Beach, and a Back-2-back in September out of New Orleans, for 3 weeks total.  All were booked in 2019, before Covid was a common word.

[SeaHunt]

Posted this on another thread, but thought it fit this topic over here too - NCL is now sending non-essential crew back home (boohoo):

 

"The repatriation process will take place on two appointed ships. The Norwegian Joy which is in Aruba will gather non-essential crew from the ships stationed in the Caribbean and will proceed to the Philippines.

 

The Norwegian Encore which is in Southampton will make a few different stops along her journey back to Asia. The repatriation process will be similar to the one that took place last year with crew transfers to the appropriate vessel, before the crew finally sails to their homes in India, Indonesia and the Philippines, with anticipated arrival to the final destinations in late March or early April 2021.

 

This will be a long and sad journey for all the crew onboard as their hopes and dreams to be the first to set sail with guests onboard will not materialize at this point. They have made countless sacrifices, PCR tests, and quarantines to join the ships again to serve guests and ultimately provide for their family.

 

This decision did not come easy and the repatriation of the crew once again was not in the company plan. However, with the further cancelations of cruises, NCL believes that the crew will be better off from the comfort of their home and loved ones before re-joining once again for successful return to cruising. Norwegian Cruise Line promised that the repatriated crew will be prioritized for new assignments as much as possible, but with the long journey back home, ship-to-ship transfers, and other rules and regulations from their home countries these crew members will need much longer time to re-energize for their next sign-on. 

 

http://crew-center.com/all-ncl-non-essential-crew-be-repatriated-home-april-2021

[Lee Cruiser]

2 hours ago, VentureMan_2000 said:

I have a May 8th 7-day out of Long Beach, and a Back-2-back in September out of New Orleans, for 3 weeks total.  All were booked in 2019, before Covid was a common word.

Our early September Valor cruise from N.O. was cancelled a while back.  I see now that all Valor cruises have been cancelled through October.  Is your back to back Valor or Glory?

[mpk]

On 1/22/2021 at 9:08 AM, mouche said:

That's why we decided to rebook the Mardi Gras for late 2022, I had to get off the merry-go-round and book as far out as possible, I just pray it's far enough out.😵

 

I certainly understand your sentiments.  Being on the cancel parade is not fun.  With the slowness of refunds, and how they do it piecemeal with many small amounts, I am not really sure if I am being shorted or not.

 

That would mean three years of no cruising though!

[mpk]

21 hours ago, SeaHunt said:

Posted this on another thread, but thought it fit this topic over here too - NCL is now sending non-essential crew back home (boohoo):

   [ ... ]

with anticipated arrival to the final destinations in late March or early April 2021.

 

This means 2021 for NCL is pretty much gone, right?  I have a NCL cruise for later this year  ☹️

[Lee Cruiser]

2 hours ago, mpk said:

 

This means 2021 for NCL is pretty much gone, right?  I have a NCL cruise for later this year  ☹️

I'm guessing they still don't know for sure right now either, but it doesn't sound like they are expecting the end of April to be the last pause.

[RiotAct]

On 1/24/2021 at 9:31 AM, cruisingrandy said:

You don't want to come to the upstate of SC then. Grocery stores and Walmart maybe 60% with masks on. Many people think masks are a joke here.No enforcement at all,  Even store and restauant employees just have masks on down on their neck not covering there mouth or nose, we just go in a store or restauant for to go and get out fast.

 

usually when I see these kinda of posts I think “their numbers probably aren’t much worse in reality than NY State” (where I live).  And I’m usually right.

 

But I just looked up the SC numbers from tests reported yesterday.  31.8% positivity rate????  Holy.

[VentureMan_2000]

On 1/27/2021 at 2:18 PM, Lee Cruiser said:

Our early September Valor cruise from N.O. was cancelled a while back.  I see now that all Valor cruises have been cancelled through October.  Is your back to back Valor or Glory?

Glory.

[HaveWeMetYet]

On 1/27/2021 at 12:58 PM, VentureMan_2000 said:

I have a May 8th 7-day out of Long Beach, and a Back-2-back in September out of New Orleans, for 3 weeks total.  All were booked in 2019, before Covid was a common word.

zero and zero. 

Sorry.

[bucfan2]

Regardless of what side of the fence an individual is on (mandatory vaccine, anti-vaxxer, just cruise, wait till...., etc), until the fear factor/stay-scared factor is brought back down to reasonable levels, cruising is going nowhere.

 

Doesn't appear cruise lines are very high on the 'bailout priority list'.  It will be interesting to see who survives if/when cruising does resume.

[mouche]

21 hours ago, mpk said:

 

I certainly understand your sentiments.  Being on the cancel parade is not fun.  With the slowness of refunds, and how they do it piecemeal with many small amounts, I am not really sure if I am being shorted or not.

 

That would mean three years of no cruising though!

 

Yea, years without cruising sucks, I was blessed to get off my last cruise 2-13-2020 right before all you know what broke out. I have no problem with now waiting almost three years, as I pray it will be enough time for things to get back to normal or at least no mask wearing while on the ship. 

[mouche]

On 1/23/2021 at 12:05 AM, Lesnpaula said:

 Mask wearing is certainly sporadic where I live in North Carolina. My general perception is that those in rural areas tend to just think they're immune to the spread, until they find out they aren't. 

 

 

 

I live in North Carolina and I find this to be true as well.

[PhillyFan33579]

I think NCL’s decision to send crew home is a clear sign it is going to be a long time (i.e. 2022) before cruises resume from the US. 

[john91498]

3 hours ago, PhillyFan33579 said:

I think NCL’s decision to send crew home is a clear sign it is going to be a long time (i.e. 2022) before cruises resume from the US. 

 

Agreed...

[Anyislandwilldo]

I hope cruising returns in Q4, I have the granddaughter booked for her honeymoon cruise.

[lidoplease]

On 1/24/2021 at 9:31 AM, cruisingrandy said:

You don't want to come to the upstate of SC then. Grocery stores and Walmart maybe 60% with masks on. Many people think masks are a joke here.No enforcement at all,  Even store and restauant employees just have masks on down on their neck not covering there mouth or nose, we just go in a store or restauant for to go and get out fast.

 

I'll stay in the lowcountry. Sorry people upstate are being unreasonable. 

[lidoplease]

On 1/28/2021 at 5:13 PM, RiotAct said:

usually when I see these kinda of posts I think “their numbers probably aren’t much worse in reality than NY State” (where I live).  And I’m usually right.

 

But I just looked up the SC numbers from tests reported yesterday.  31.8% positivity rate????  Holy.

I quit looking at tests a long time ago. I look at hospital occupancy, etc. I wish the covid was over, but we're not overrun. 

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

Just like it's been since last year, there is evidence out there to guide projections on when cruising can start

again.

 

The facts simply aren't favorable right now.

 

Coachella, Glastonbury and Stagecoach all canceled for 2021. Boris Johnson says it's too early to talk about when Great Britain will lift its lockdown restrictions (which are far tougher than what's in the U.S.).   No INFORMED executives are seriously talking about reopening plans ... that's simply not the reality of February 2021, or the remainder of winter and spring.

 

Summer '21? Doesn't look promising.

 

Fall '21 ... looks bleak but not entirely written off.

   wouldn't put money or expectations on it, but it's not entirely unrealistic to hope that very limited cruising could be tried. We're talking extensive protocols and precautions, few ships & even fewer ports ... so forget any illusion of 2019-style cruising. 
  
 

 

 

 

[Crazy planning mom]

4 hours ago, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

Summer '21? Doesn't look promising.

 

Fall '21 ... looks bleak but not entirely written off.

   wouldn't put money or expectations on it, but it's not entirely unrealistic to hope that very limited cruising could be tried. We're talking extensive protocols and precautions, few ships & even fewer ports ... so forget any illusion of 2019-style cruising. 
  
I disagree that Fall looks bleak.  I think Bahamas and Caribbean cruising will happen in the 4th quarter.  The Congressional Budget Office predicts the economy

will bounce back in the 2nd half of 2021.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/cbo-report-foresees-rapid-growth-recovery-labor-force-revival-by-2022.html

 

 

 

 

Edited February 1, 2021 by Crazy planning mom

[ProgRockCruiser]

5 hours ago, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

Summer '21? Doesn't look promising.

 

Fall '21 ... looks bleak but not entirely written off.

   wouldn't put money or expectations on it, but it's not entirely unrealistic to hope that very limited cruising could be tried. We're talking extensive protocols and precautions, few ships & even fewer ports ... so forget any illusion of 2019-style cruising. 

 

11 minutes ago, Crazy planning mom said:

I disagree that Fall looks bleak.  I think Bahamas and Caribbean cruising will happen in the 4th quarter.  The Congressional Budget Office predicts the economy

will bounce back in the 2nd half of 2021.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/cbo-report-foresees-rapid-growth-recovery-labor-force-revival-by-2022.html

 

The economy recovering might happen earlier than a return to "normal-ish" cruising, though.  The economy doesn't require CDC clearance after several test-run pseudo-cruises.  🙄

 

I suppose it might also depend on what people think of as "Summer" and "Fall".  Technically Fall goes through late Dec, but for anyone from the northern states, I suspect "Winter" starts in mid-Nov, and "Fall is 1 Sept through mid-Nov.  It was for me when I lived "Up North".

 

If we go by the official (?) designation of Summer (21 June through 22 Sept), I am doubtful about the first half.  Second half could be possible.

 

For Fall (22 Sept through 21 Dec), I agree - by mid-Fall at the latest we should be in much better shape.

[Jenjer]

I think we have to get to the point when we know there might/ will be outbreaks but ships still run on schedule. Before any level of normal cruising can go on.  Most of us cannot risk being stuck on a ship for days or weeks because of a outbreak. Or taking 2 more weeks off work after returning from a cruise. 

[Buckeyefrank100]

43 minutes ago, Jenjer said:

I think we have to get to the point when we know there might/ will be outbreaks but ships still run on schedule. Before any level of normal cruising can go on.  Most of us cannot risk being stuck on a ship for days or weeks because of a outbreak. Or taking 2 more weeks off work after returning from a cruise. 

I think you're right but I'll go a little further.  We don't take these same precautions for the flu, common cold or norovirus and will need to learn to live with the disease, not how to get rid of it... which we likely never will.  There's numerous articles coming out that the virus is mutating to versions that likely aren't going to be affected by the vaccine.  We either need to choose to live our lives freely, ditch the masks and social distancing and take the results that come OR huddle up with our little family units in fear and let the government supply all of our basic needs and basically live in our own little jails forever.

[gtalum]

12 minutes ago, Buckeyefrank100 said:

I think you're right but I'll go a little further.  We don't take these same precautions for the flu, common cold or norovirus and will need to learn to live with the disease, not how to get rid of it... which we likely never will.  There's numerous articles coming out that the virus is mutating to versions that likely aren't going to be affected by the vaccine.  We either need to choose to live our lives freely, ditch the masks and social distancing and take the results that come OR huddle up with our little family units in fear and let the government supply all of our basic needs and basically live in our own little jails forever.

 

As most viruses circulate among humans, we eventually develop resistance to them.  They still affect us, but our immune systems become more adept at fighting them off.  The reason an average seasonal flu "only" kills a more limited number of people every year is because we've seen the strains before.  A pandemic occurs when a new virus hits, one that nobody has any resistance to.  At least one of the normal flu strains that runs around today is the strain that caused the 1917/1918 pandemic.  Now it's just seasonal flu.

 

You're right that SARSCoV-2 and the resulting COVID-19 infection will likely remain with us, but it won't always be the raging pandemic that it is right now.  It will almost certainly eventually come under control and merge into the seasonal background like common colds (which are also coronaviruses, by the way)  or the flu.  Then we'll be able to treat it like any other seasonal virus.

 

I'm thinking by summer things will start rapidly returning to whatever "normal" will be.  I do think that this will be an inflection point and some things will never be the same, though.  Cruising will return, but the industry will likely look different.  This is a massive financial blow to them, no matter how it shakes out in the end.

Edited February 4, 2021 by gtalum

[gtalum]

In the meantime, live your life, plan a land and/or air vacation, and relax.  Don't keep lending money to the cruise lines.  It will be clear when they're ready to start sailing.

 

I think we're going to go to Brazil this summer.  They're open.