Opinion of Vaccine Required ....but if vaccine is only good for 6 or so months.....

[MrMarc]

1 minute ago, firefly333 said:

A prediction is not data. It's a guess. 

 

Same as people here are doing, guesses. 

 

After 3 months slight decrease but robust at that time. Those who had covid still showed ..

 

So 7 year from now where will it be, or as I said need a booster not because of declines in antibodies but some new variation..its all guesses. 

 

How much can you decide from a slight decrease? More data needed. Vaccine too new to know. 

 

Nothing there to say because of decline in antibodies we need a booster. 

That's what I  said it was, a prediction.  All long term immunity numbers are predictions right now, because that is the one thing that changes over time with all vaccines.

[Toofarfromthesea]

6 hours ago, firefly333 said:

Pure speculation. Cc needs to invent a way so we can put a thread on ignore.

 

They do.  It is called "NOT Clicking on the thread"

[Host Jazzbeau]

When New York State created their Excelsior Pass app, the vaccine passport 'expired' 6 months after the second shot.  They have now changed their software and the same passes now don't expire until 12 months.  I was able to download new versions of our Excelsior Passes that cover our next three cruises.  Yeah!

[Toofarfromthesea]

Fwiw, there is a lot more data on the duration of immunity from Natural Immunity than from the vaccines, for the simple reason that infection/recovery Natural Immunity started way back in January 2020 (or earlier) while no one has been vaccinated nearly as long ago.  So there is a lot more history.

The good news is that 4 studies issued within the last month from highly respected researchers indicate that Natural Immunity has long duration and is just as effective as being vaccinated.

[TheOldBear]

18 hours ago, MtnSeaGirl said:

Please no flaming.  Sincere question.  I had the dreaded COVID even though I did everything right ( essential worker  ).  I def do NOT want it again.  I had the vaccine when it became available early this year.  So, I don't have a problem with the vaccine requirement to cruise.  When I had the vaccine, I asked how long it could be expected to last.  Six months?  Nine months? Need a booster?  The answer was they did not know.  Months later, we ( at work ) still don't know and no booster is available.    I want to book a cruise for our 30th anniversary....I see the requirement for 95% to be vaccinated.  How will this work when the vaccine may or may not last that long?  Someone could book a year in advance and the vaccine have "worn off" by the time they cruise so the vaccine passport may not mean as much as it does a few weeks after being vaccinated.    I am genuinely asking what you know about how this will be handled.   I am not debating the need for the vaccine requirement.  Like I said, I def do NOT want this again.  Thank you in advance for your kind answers.  

 

There is evidence that survivors of SARS-COV-1 [the original SARS] had cross reactivity and effective immune response to SARS-COV-2 [COVID 19] 18 years later. [do a search on 'sars cross reactivity' and look for papers on the NIH web site]

 

Hopefully the cellular response ['T' and 'Memory B' cells]  to SARS-COV-2 will have similar endurance. That response is not tested by antigen, PCR or antibody tests [until exposure prompts a fresh supply of antibodies]

[rkacruiser]

OP, I would not let your concern keep you from booking your cruise.  Your concern is quite reasonable.  It seems as each week passes, we are learning more and more about what to expect from the vaccines as well as to how to cope with the disease.

 

Weeks ago, the CEO of Pfizer predicted that a booster would be needed this Fall.  I have heard nothing much different.  I expect to get a booster and I wonder if it is not "officially" suggested that I get one, will I be able to get a booster just because I want one.  And, if so, is there any reason why I ought not to do so?  

[SelectSys]

@MtnSeaGirl - the best that I can find is the requirement for entering Spain this summer.  Spain is assuming vaccines are only good for one year.  It's kind of a mute point for this summer, but a booster seems likely for next year.

 

My only personal concern is if a future trip coincides with the requirement for a booster shot.  Hopefully access to the vaccine won't be too difficult next year when a wave of booster shots are required.

 

https://es.usembassy.gov/covid-19-information/

 

Effective June 7, 2021, vaccinated U.S. citizens and their minor children can travel from the United States to Spain if they present the following documents upon arrival in Spain: 

QR code generated through the Spain Travel Health portal, obtained through the website or by downloading the SpTH app in Google Play or App Store for each traveler,

And 

Vaccination certificate showing they have been fully vaccinated against Covid-19 more than 14 days before the flight to Spain (up to one year after the date of vaccination) with one of the European Medicines Agency-approved vaccines or the WHO approved vaccines. Please visit the Spain Travel Health portal (FAQs) for details about which vaccine certificate or document proving vaccination against COVID-19/diagnostic test/recovery of COVID-19 will be required to enter Spain.

Effective June 7, 2021, vaccinated U.S. citizens and their minor children can travel from the United States to Spain if they present the following documents upon arrival in Spain: 

1. QR code generated through the Spain Travel Health portal, obtained through the website or by downloading the SpTH app in Google Play or App Store for each traveler,

And 

2. Vaccination certificate showing they have been fully vaccinated against Covid-19 more than 14 days before the flight to Spain (up to one year after the date of vaccination) with one of the European Medicines Agency-approved vaccines or the WHO approved vaccines. Please visit the Spain Travel Health portal (FAQs) for details about which vaccine certificate or document proving vaccination against COVID-19/diagnostic test/recovery of COVID-19 will be required to enter Spain.

[navybankerteacher]

6 hours ago, firefly333 said:

A prediction is not data. It's a guess. 

 

…

No, a prediction might prove to be an incorrect guess - but ALL predictions, (hopefully based upon available data) involve uncertainty.  If there were NO uncertainty - they would be hardly be predictions - but statements of fact.

 

Just because some predictions are based upon incomplete, or not fully understood, data —- all predictions  are not mere guesses.   And sound predictions are vital in preparing to deal with ANY upcoming situation or event.

[MtnSeaGirl]

Thank you all for your responses.  I did not intend to cause a rukus or cause anyone wanting an " ignore thread " button..... which is why I don't post a lot.  One snarky answer can make you say it is not worth it.  Most all of you were very helpful, and I appreciate it.  I was hung up on why we would need proof of vaccination if the vaccination was not expected to last as long as our booking (such as booking a year or two out).  What you said made sense.   Maybe one day all this will be a distant memory and life will resume as it once was...  Thank you again.  Happy Cruising!

[Host Jazzbeau]

8 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

Weeks ago, the CEO of Pfizer predicted that a booster would be needed this Fall.  I have heard nothing much different.  I expect to get a booster and I wonder if it is not "officially" suggested that I get one, will I be able to get a booster just because I want one.  And, if so, is there any reason why I ought not to do so?  

If I recall that news item correctly, that prediction was based on the need for a tweaked booster to cover the new variants – and was before the data came out that the original Pfizer and Moderna vaccines protect against all the current variants.  I assume that's part of the calculus that led NYS to extend the Excelsior Pass expiration dates to 1 year [and again, I doubt there's any evidence that the 1 year is a limit, just the next 'best guess.']

[pe4all]

5 hours ago, Host Jazzbeau said:

 I assume that's part of the calculus that led NYS to extend the Excelsior Pass expiration dates to 1 year [and again, I doubt there's any evidence that the 1 year is a limit, just the next 'best guess.']

Interesting you just wrote this about the Excelsior Pass extension.  My pass was due to expire 9/24/21 - six months after my second vaccination.  I had checked my pass on 6/5, thinking I would need to show it at the Belmont Stakes when I went.   I just looked, and the new date is now 3/24/22- exactly one year from my 2nd vaccine.  

[Joebucks]

The real answer is no one knows. There is a lot still unknown. That's not enough to stop most people from giving their stance the benefit of the doubt.

 

What past evidence of infectious disease has normally told us is boosters will be needed. More so from variants. A highly contagious virus like this simply just doesn't die off. It normally finds a way to get moving again. Often, the variants become less deadly over time as well too. Living hosts present a better chance at spreading than dead hosts.

 

18 hours ago, Toofarfromthesea said:

Fwiw, there is a lot more data on the duration of immunity from Natural Immunity than from the vaccines, for the simple reason that infection/recovery Natural Immunity started way back in January 2020 (or earlier) while no one has been vaccinated nearly as long ago.  So there is a lot more history.

The good news is that 4 studies issued within the last month from highly respected researchers indicate that Natural Immunity has long duration and is just as effective as being vaccinated.

 

This will largely be ignored. This is not the approved agenda.

[rkacruiser]

15 hours ago, Host Jazzbeau said:

If I recall that news item correctly, that prediction was based on the need for a tweaked booster to cover the new variants – and was before the data came out that the original Pfizer and Moderna vaccines protect against all the current variants.

 

Yes, you are correct in your memory.  The news that both of these vaccines appear effective against the variants is quite new, I think.

 

 

[Ride-The-Waves]

On 6/13/2021 at 8:19 PM, MtnSeaGirl said:

Please no flaming.  Sincere question.  I had the dreaded COVID even though I did everything right ( essential worker  ).  I def do NOT want it again.  I had the vaccine when it became available early this year.  So, I don't have a problem with the vaccine requirement to cruise.  When I had the vaccine, I asked how long it could be expected to last.  Six months?  Nine months? Need a booster?  The answer was they did not know.  Months later, we ( at work ) still don't know and no booster is available.    I want to book a cruise for our 30th anniversary....I see the requirement for 95% to be vaccinated.  How will this work when the vaccine may or may not last that long?  Someone could book a year in advance and the vaccine have "worn off" by the time they cruise so the vaccine passport may not mean as much as it does a few weeks after being vaccinated.    I am genuinely asking what you know about how this will be handled.   I am not debating the need for the vaccine requirement.  Like I said, I def do NOT want this again.  Thank you in advance for your kind answers.  

This is not a question that can be answered in a CC forum.  Its a serious health issue which can only be answered by health professionals.

[SuiteTraveler]

The first recipients of the vaccine got it in March 2020 (Moderna and then two weeks later Pfizer) and still are immune, otherwise, we'd all be hearing all about it and I'm sure some states would go into lockdown...again.  

 

The length of time the vaccine will last depends on the speed at which the T and B cells degrade.  Scientists have been able to observe the speed of the T and B cells degrading and have seen that it is extremely slow in subjects who received either the Moderna or Pfizer vaccines.  From that observation scientists have estimated that the Covid vaccine will be long lasting unless something unknown at this time unexpectedly speeds up the degrading of these cells. The antibodies do decrease over time and then level off, however the B cells create new antibodies when confronted with the Covid virus, so that is not a problem.  

 

 

 

Edited June 17, 2021 by SuiteTraveler