Why Isn't HAL Adding New Ships to Their Fleet

[TRLD]

19 minutes ago, esimon said:

New ships cost money. I don’t wanna pay more for my cruises. I don’t want bigger ships. New ships mean bigger. I am quite happy with Holland just the way it is. But thanks for asking.

Only problem is sooner or later existing ships age out and have to be replaced.

[esimon]

I would think that Holland would see that coming and then they will order new ships. Until then, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

[Sir PMP]

2 hours ago, TRLD said:

A recession probably, all business cycles go through that. Though employment is still near record highs, incomes are also near record highs, though their are some signs that consumers are getting stretched.

 

In this case not that much building going on compared to pre covid. Mostly previous orders that were made before Covid getting completed.  CCL owned lines have not really placed any new orders as they are paying down debt.

 

NCL has placed some new orders pending financing mostly to hold slots.

 

Expect CCL to start placing orders in 2026 if current trends continue. 

 

Note CCL has just announced that they are shutting down P&O Australia in 2025 in order to roll the ships in Carnival due to high demand for Carnival.

 

Still expecting them to shift a ship or 2 from Aida to HAL. If not then based upon past trends, order history, and age of fleet a new ship order for HAL should be in 2025 or 2026.

If they pick up the ones that have around 2200 pax and are about 8 years old, then that would be a good move.

[CruiserBruce]

24 minutes ago, esimon said:

I would think that Holland would see that coming and then they will order new ships. Until then, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

They do. But there are a number of other factors to consider.

[TRLD]

19 minutes ago, Sir PMP said:

If they pick up the ones that have around 2200 pax and are about 8 years old, then that would be a good move.

They have several in the 2050 to 2194, but they are  12 to 16 years old.  The 12, 13, 14 year old ships would give 10 to 12 years under CCL normal retirement approach. Enough time to make refit worthwhile. Though I kind of like the alpine cabin dining venue that Aida has.

 

Aida has almost doubled their capacity with their addition of large ships so they might be able to transfer a couple of their smaller ones.

[BermudaBound2014]

3 hours ago, TRLD said:

.....CCL owned lines have not really placed any new orders as they are paying down debt.

 

NCL has placed some new orders pending financing mostly to hold slots.

 

Expect CCL to start placing orders in 2026 if current trends continue. 

 

CCL has already placed new build orders. CCL announced last February they are building two new excel class ships for Carnival. These are big girls. 183K g/t and 5K passengers. I sailed the Celebration (an Excel class and sister to the ships currently on the order books).  It's a well designed ship with some innovative options for food choices. Think 'food truck' concept around the main lido pool which moves crowds away from the lido. They also offer an entire adult only deck area called Serenity complete with comfy padded loungers, a pool, a bar, a salad bar, and servers. All complimentary. I'd sail this class of ship again in a heartbeat, if only for the Serenity.

 

 

[Sir PMP]

2 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

CCL has already placed new build orders. CCL announced last February they are building two new excel class ships for Carnival. These are big girls. 183K g/t and 5K passengers. I sailed the Celebration (an Excel class and sister to the ships currently on the order books).  It's a well designed ship with some innovative options for food choices. Think 'food truck' concept around the main lido pool which moves crowds away from the lido. They also offer an entire adult only deck area called Serenity complete with comfy padded loungers, a pool, a bar, a salad bar, and servers. All complimentary. I'd sail this class of ship again in a heartbeat, if only for the Serenity.

 

 

Remember, most of these moguls will be thrown out of European small to medium ports.

[HappyInVan]

12 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

First, everyone complains about the cutbacks that HAL has made in order to repay the debt load incurred by covid, but then folks ask why HAL won't invest hundreds of millions of dollars in a new ship.  That level of investment puts even more stress on their profit margin, at a time when they can't afford it.

 

Just a clarification. An expensive debt load will increase expenses and reduce the bottom line. However, new investments don't necessarily reduce the bottom line. It all depends on the price of the cruise fare, the operating cost and the effect on operating profit.

 

A new ship that reduces operating cost by 30% will go a long way to pay for its costs. A new ship that generates higher cruise fare and lower operating cost is a good thing.

 

The problem for CCL, HAL and the industry is that the industry has too much capacity. Resulting in fares lower than ideal. That's why the industry continuously launch new ships with more Wow factor. To bring customers back for more, and to draw customers from competitors.

 

The risk for HAL is that the fleet will get smaller, and the brand becomes cheaper until it is irrelevant. Will HAL still be recognizable in 5 years time?

 

Don't forget that the Norwegian fjords and other destinations are imposing restrictions on diesel ships. Quite possible that HAL's diesel ships in 10 years time will be restricted only to large cities and transoceanic voyages. 

[rodndonna]

12 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

CCL has already placed new build orders. CCL announced last February they are building two new excel class ships for Carnival. These are big girls. 183K g/t and 5K passengers. I sailed the Celebration (an Excel class and sister to the ships currently on the order books).  It's a well designed ship with some innovative options for food choices. Think 'food truck' concept around the main lido pool which moves crowds away from the lido. They also offer an entire adult only deck area called Serenity complete with comfy padded loungers, a pool, a bar, a salad bar, and servers. All complimentary. I'd sail this class of ship again in a heartbeat, if only for the Serenity.

 

 

 

I'm with you in checking out new ships and their innovation - we sailed NCl's newest last year (Viva) and their indulge food hall, Ocean walk , Vibe are really nice innovations possible on larger/newer ships. That being said, we (and I expect you may) - like all ships sizes and sorts for the differences they offer. Our next sailing is on Volendam, so back to a smaller ship after our last 2 cruises being on newer large ships (NCL and Princess). I enjoyed them but am also looking forward to Volendam. Looking at a cruise next year on Azamara (700 passengers) but that is for the golf option they offer.

[BermudaBound2014]

10 hours ago, Sir PMP said:

Remember, most of these moguls will be thrown out of European small to medium ports.

 

Remember, many of the older ships will also be thrown out of European small to medium ports because they are not LNG compliant. 

Passengers who want to visit small ports in Eurpoe (aka many HAL passengers) are a very small subset of the current market which is family focused, 7 day 'bus runs', where the ship is the destination. The cruise lines know this which is why they are investing in larger vessels. I vision a day in the near future where some of the 'moguls' will depart Florida and only visit the cruise lines very own private islands. Captive audience indeed.

 

FWIT: Carnivals new large vessels are all LNG; so at least there's that.

[BermudaBound2014]

9 minutes ago, rodndonna said:

 

I'm with you in checking out new ships and their innovation - we sailed NCl's newest last year (Viva) and their indulge food hall, Ocean walk , Vibe are really nice innovations possible on larger/newer ships. That being said, we (and I expect you may) - like all ships sizes and sorts for the differences they offer. Our next sailing is on Volendam, so back to a smaller ship after our last 2 cruises being on newer large ships (NCL and Princess). I enjoyed them but am also looking forward to Volendam. Looking at a cruise next year on Azamara (700 passengers) but that is for the golf option they offer.

 

Exactly! Some of the big ships offer  really great amenities. It's all about how the space is used.

 

PS: I'm off to research this golf option you speak of!! 🙂 

 

Edited June 5 by BermudaBound2014

[chengkp75]

21 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Remember, many of the older ships will also be thrown out of European small to medium ports because they are not LNG compliant. 

I haven't seen anything where European ports are requiring LNG fuel.  I see that the EU has set goals for how many ports will have LNG bunkering facilities, but nothing on fuel use, other than the already in force emissions standards, which allow for low sulfur diesel fuel while in port.

[Hlitner]

I think some folks do not want to except that the few ship yards, who build cruise ships, are all quite busy and booked for several years.   Building a new vessel is a many year project, and this means that HAL (if it survives) will not have any new-builds for at least 5 years (likely 10+).  CCL could certainly repurpose a contracted new-build from one of their other lines to HAL, but there is no reason to think that is going to happen.  

 

Meanwhile, the cruise industry is booming (with an anticipated 10% passenger growth for next year) and many lines are sold-out without having to offer ridiculous special deals (like $99 deposits), offer deep discounts for casino specials, interline deals, etc.  We recently looked at a couple of longer Oceania cruises (for 2025-26) and they were already wait listed.  And those cruises were selling at top dollar (about twice what it would cost us to book with HAL).  Lines like Explora Journeys, MSC, etc. continue to add new-builds at a fast rate.  Viking Ocean now has 9 ships (the oldest is less than 10 years old).  Virgin is adding their 4th ship (the oldest is not even 5 years old).  Princess will soon add its 17th ship.  Carnival (a line many like to mock) has more than 25 ships with 4 more coming!  While most HAL cruisers would not be caught dead on a Carnival vessel, that line does quite well filling their ships (and HAL fans should keep in mind that CCL has kept HAL afloat).  By the way, cruising on Oceania's new Vista was like night/day when compared to our most recent HAL voyage (Westerdam).   The worst meal we had on O was better (usually far better) then the best meal we had on the Westy.  All the logistical problems we encountered on the Westy (such as running out of Pellegrino/Perrier, many beers, Diet Coke, etc) did not happen on the Vista.  There was no such thing as a pre-made sandwich (all sandwiches were made to order).  The only plus for HAL is their salad station (in the Lido) which can make far better salads then we got on O.  I also missed the BB King/Rolling Stone vibe.

 

Hank

 

 

 

[BermudaBound2014]

51 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

I haven't seen anything where European ports are requiring LNG fuel.  I see that the EU has set goals for how many ports will have LNG bunkering facilities, but nothing on fuel use, other than the already in force emissions standards, which allow for low sulfur diesel fuel while in port.

 

A predictive statement given the direction to reduce carbon emissions by 2030. A response to the predictive statement that "most of these moguls will be thrown out of European small to medium port".  No one knows what the future holds, but the trend is toward both lower emission and reduced passenger loads in overcrowded ports.

 

Since you are here, would you mind commenting on the status of ships in HAL's fleet when it comes to meeting reduced emission regulations? For example; will any of HAL's current fleet be allowed into Norway's fjords given their aggressive move to ban ships except those with alternate power (for example LNG)?

 

 

https://cruisepassenger.com.au/news/norway-moves-to-ban-all-ships-except-those-with-alternative-power/#:~:text=Norway’s government is taking an aggressive stance towards,may rule out major cruise lines from visiting.

 

Thanks! 

 

PS: Are these maritime regulations just wishes? Like the US moving to all electric vehicles by 2030?

https://transport.ec.europa.eu/transport-modes/maritime/decarbonising-maritime-transport-fueleu-maritime_en

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 5 by BermudaBound2014

[terrydtx]

We did our first, hopefully not last, Pinnacle class cruise on the Kongingsdam last February. We loved the ship and extra specialty restaurant offerings not on the smaller older HAL ships, including the Club Orange dining room. For us the size of the PC ships is perfect for our likes. We also like the smaller ships for the interesting itineraries they can offer at affordable price points. Our Volendam cruise in August has ports in Canada, like Montreal, only smaller ships can access. 

[Mary229]

39 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

A predictive statement given the direction to reduce carbon emissions by 2030. A response to the predictive statement that "most of these moguls will be thrown out of European small to medium port".  No one knows what the future holds, but the trend is toward both lower emission and reduced passenger loads in overcrowded ports.

 

Since you are here, would you mind commenting on the status of ships in HAL's fleet when it comes to meeting reduced emission regulations? For example; will any of HAL's current fleet be allowed into Norway's fjords given their aggressive move to ban ships except those with alternate power (for example LNG)?

 

 

https://cruisepassenger.com.au/news/norway-moves-to-ban-all-ships-except-those-with-alternative-power/#:~:text=Norway’s government is taking an aggressive stance towards,may rule out major cruise lines from visiting.

 

Thanks! 

 

PS: Are these maritime regulations just wishes? Like the US moving to all electric vehicles by 2030?

https://transport.ec.europa.eu/transport-modes/maritime/decarbonising-maritime-transport-fueleu-maritime_en

 

 

 

 

 

 

HAL is already testing alternative fuels in Norway https://www.hollandamerica.com/en/us/news/2024/May/news-050224-holland-america-line-begins-biofuel-tests

Edited June 5 by Mary229

[Mary229]

36 minutes ago, terrydtx said:

We did our first, hopefully not last, Pinnacle class cruise on the Kongingsdam last February. We loved the ship and extra specialty restaurant offerings not on the smaller older HAL ships, including the Club Orange dining room. For us the size of the PC ships is perfect for our likes. We also like the smaller ships for the interesting itineraries they can offer at affordable price points. Our Volendam cruise in August has ports in Canada, like Montreal, only smaller ships can access. 

If you liked the K you will really like the two newer ships where all of the layout design flaws were fixed.  I do not like the K but the NS is a favorite 

[BermudaBound2014]

15 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

HAL is already testing alternative fuels in Norway https://www.hollandamerica.com/en/us/news/2024/May/news-050224-holland-america-line-begins-biofuel-tests

 

NICE! 🙂 

[chengkp75]

57 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Since you are here, would you mind commenting on the status of ships in HAL's fleet when it comes to meeting reduced emission regulations? For example; will any of HAL's current fleet be allowed into Norway's fjords given their aggressive move to ban ships except those with alternate power (for example LNG)?

I was aware of the fjord restrictions, but that is not "ports", just world heritage sites, which is understandable.  HAL meets all current emissions standards.  It is only certain fjords where the restrictions will apply, and HAL's current fleet won't meet those standards.  It would not surprise me if Norway banned all ships except those fueled by battery or hydrogen in the fjords, in the future.

Biofuels, like LNG, have benefits and drawbacks, and HAL will have to adapt operating procedures and some systems to accommodate carrying an additional fuel onboard (as this will make the third fuel the ship will use: biofuel, low sulfur diesel, and residual fuel oil.  Biofuel, due to its organic origin also has operational drawbacks that could cause an increase in incidents like the Dali (though that was not caused by a fuel problem, it was originally thought to be so, since these problems have increased year over year for a couple of decades).  

[TRLD]

1 hour ago, Hlitner said:

I think some folks do not want to except that the few ship yards, who build cruise ships, are all quite busy and booked for several years.   Building a new vessel is a many year project, and this means that HAL (if it survives) will not have any new-builds for at least 5 years (likely 10+).  CCL could certainly repurpose a contracted new-build from one of their other lines to HAL, but there is no reason to think that is going to happen.  

 

Meanwhile, the cruise industry is booming (with an anticipated 10% passenger growth for next year) and many lines are sold-out without having to offer ridiculous special deals (like $99 deposits), offer deep discounts for casino specials, interline deals, etc.  We recently looked at a couple of longer Oceania cruises (for 2025-26) and they were already wait listed.  And those cruises were selling at top dollar (about twice what it would cost us to book with HAL).  Lines like Explora Journeys, MSC, etc. continue to add new-builds at a fast rate.  Viking Ocean now has 9 ships (the oldest is less than 10 years old).  Virgin is adding their 4th ship (the oldest is not even 5 years old).  Princess will soon add its 17th ship.  Carnival (a line many like to mock) has more than 25 ships with 4 more coming!  While most HAL cruisers would not be caught dead on a Carnival vessel, that line does quite well filling their ships (and HAL fans should keep in mind that CCL has kept HAL afloat).  By the way, cruising on Oceania's new Vista was like night/day when compared to our most recent HAL voyage (Westerdam).   The worst meal we had on O was better (usually far better) then the best meal we had on the Westy.  All the logistical problems we encountered on the Westy (such as running out of Pellegrino/Perrier, many beers, Diet Coke, etc) did not happen on the Vista.  There was no such thing as a pre-made sandwich (all sandwiches were made to order).  The only plus for HAL is their salad station (in the Lido) which can make far better salads then we got on O.  I also missed the BB King/Rolling Stone vibe.

 

Hank

 

 

 

Our experience with our 21 day cruise on Oceania was far different. Much prefer HAL. For us Oceania was like ground hog day at sea. Every sea day the same. Live music but mostly back ground music for tea and happy hours. Same day to day. The most excitement was one day when they did a fair with corn hole and contests like how to stuff a pillow in a pillow case.

 

As far as food it was generally good, but really not  consistently better than HAL. Only real difference was the to order grill for steaks and lobster. Specialty dining was poor enough that we canceled several.of our reservations at the two available on Regatta.

Had one of the worst meals I have ever had on a cruise ship at the GDR on Oceania.

 

So ones view may differ.

 

HAL seems to be selling quite well these days look at thus years Alaska season most sold out.

 

You can pay the premium level fare for Oceania we will keep the mass market level fare for HAL.  Save outer money for other premium lines besides Oceania. The Oceania experience was not worth the Oceania price or fir thar matter not even a HAL price. Far too sedate, or rather sedated.

 

HAL niche is pretty well established. Smallest average ship size of the adult focused mass market lines. Longest average itineraries with the most unique destinations out of those same lines.

Edited June 5 by TRLD

[TRLD]

14 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

I was aware of the fjord restrictions, but that is not "ports", just world heritage sites, which is understandable.  HAL meets all current emissions standards.  It is only certain fjords where the restrictions will apply, and HAL's current fleet won't meet those standards.  It would not surprise me if Norway banned all ships except those fueled by battery or hydrogen in the fjords, in the future.

Biofuels, like LNG, have benefits and drawbacks, and HAL will have to adapt operating procedures and some systems to accommodate carrying an additional fuel onboard (as this will make the third fuel the ship will use: biofuel, low sulfur diesel, and residual fuel oil.  Biofuel, due to its organic origin also has operational drawbacks that could cause an increase in incidents like the Dali (though that was not caused by a fuel problem, it was originally thought to be so, since these problems have increased year over year for a couple of decades).  

Is there anyone besides Hurtigruten that has gone the hybrid electric route? Norway may just go the electric route since they have a ferry passenger line that can meet the requirement with its newer ships.

[chengkp75]

1 hour ago, TRLD said:

Is there anyone besides Hurtigruten that has gone the hybrid electric route? Norway may just go the electric route since they have a ferry passenger line that can meet the requirement with its newer ships.

Not so far, but Viking is going with hydrogen, and sourcing "green hydrogen" from Norway.

[Gail & Marty sailing away]

Carnival  Cruise line just announced 10 ships in 8 years.

[rodndonna]

5 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Exactly! Some of the big ships offer  really great amenities. It's all about how the space is used.

 

PS: I'm off to research this golf option you speak of!! 🙂 

 

 

Perry Golf Cruises - I'll warn you - it's not cheap - but we are going to bite the bullet (and may have to look for more deals for our other cruises and holidays to offset the cost).

[BermudaBound2014]

37 minutes ago, Gail & Marty sailing away said:

Carnival  Cruise line just announced 10 ships in 8 years.

Do you have a reference for this just announced news? 

 

Ccl did announce two days ago that they were absorbing Australia P&O giving carnival 8 “newly transferred” ships (they already received 3 transferred ships from Costa); but only two of those ships are new builds- both Excel class. 
 

I only count 8 new ships to Carnival between the transfer of existing ships and 2 new builds.
 

I’m obviously missing something, or CCL has made a big switch in plans. This article summarizes and it was published Monday (2 days ago). 
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/carnival-corporation-to-strategically-align-portfolio-and-absorb-po-cruises-australia-into-carnival-cruise-line-302162438.html

 

 

Edited June 5 by BermudaBound2014