Concerns regarding terrorism in Europe.

[moniquet]

 

Yes, Egyptian tourism will have taken a big hit following Sharm, same as it has done after previous incidents. Quite possibly for a few months by 80%, as happened several times on that 10 year graph that I linked.

But barring further incidents it will bounce back toward its previous levels, same as it did on those occasions - and the same as has happened in New York, Paris, London, Madrid, Bangkok & a dozen other places.

If there's an 80% drop for 12 months, that's the time to say that tourism is down by 80%

 

References that I've found by googling "Egyptian tourism devastated" were almost entirely comments made immediately after the Sharm incident, even before the smoke had cleared.

 

JB :)

 

Yes, agree. There were some people on TV whinging because flights had stopped. We all have our own level of tolerance. Eg. I would visit Paris, in fact anywhere in Europe and I am often in London.

I would NOT visit Turkey right now or Egypt/Tunisia etc. We were on the Island of Kos last year and not dangerous but marred seeing all the human misery of refugees wandering the streets begging etc. Would be cautious which Island I chose.

[moniquet]

I suspect that it has more to do with fear of the unknown; most of us are more fearful, justified or not, of places, people, and situations that are new to us than we are of known people or places, even when they are justifiably frightening.

 

Absolutely:) I have seen a few posts saying not to walk around Castries, St Lucia. We have had about 8 land based holidays there and it seems no worse than any other tourist Island. Crime is high but most is due to the drug trade.

 

Similar New York. Our Daughter was based at the UN for a while and we were a little nervous the first time we went to visit. We were pleasantly surprised. The only incident we saw in about 6 visits was a man steal a slice of pizza.

 

It is according to people's perceptions. However I still think people are crazy to visit the main trouble spots right now;)

[TravelerThom]

...I would visit Paris, in fact anywhere in Europe and I am often in London.

I would NOT visit Turkey right now...

Yet the location of the recent terror attack in Sultanahmet Square, Istanbul, Turkey is by most definitions in Europe.

[moniquet]

Yet the location of the recent terror attack in Sultanahmet Square, Istanbul, Turkey is by most definitions in Europe.

 

Correct if you want to be pedantic:) mentally it is a thousand miles away.

[cruisemom42]

Absolutely:) I have seen a few posts saying not to walk around Castries, St Lucia. We have had about 8 land based holidays there and it seems no worse than any other tourist Island. Crime is high but most is due to the drug trade.

 

Similar New York. Our Daughter was based at the UN for a while and we were a little nervous the first time we went to visit. We were pleasantly surprised. The only incident we saw in about 6 visits was a man steal a slice of pizza.

 

It is according to people's perceptions. However I still think people are crazy to visit the main trouble spots right now;)

 

I've spent nearly as much time in Istanbul as you have in Castries, and I feel just as safe going there. Individual perceptions can be misleading at times. Istanbul is certainly NOT "mentally" a thousand miles from Europe, it is a very cosmopolitan city.

 

I also would like to point out that terrorism is NOT the only potential danger that tourists face. Making a decision solely on the basis of that -- of course keeping in mind any travel recommendations by your country's state department -- is not going to always put you at the least risk. You have to look at the whole picture.

 

For example -- Istanbul has an average of about 34,400 tourists EVERY DAY. On one day, 10 of them were killed because they were in the wrong place at the wrong time. Another 15 were wounded. But that means that more than 34,000 tourists were perfectly safe.

[moniquet]

34,400 tourists a day...are you sure. That would mean a lot of disappointed tourists wanting to visit the main attractions. In any case even if it were 134,000 I would not go, not one of my favourite places anyway.

[John Bull]

Yet the location of the recent terror attack in Sultanahmet Square, Istanbul, Turkey is by most definitions in Europe.

 

Yes.

But very much a melting pot, Europe meets Asia.

One reason why it's a fascinating city.

 

And yes, Moniquet, Istanbul has 11.5 million visitors a year!!! That's well over 30,000 a day.

But they're not all cruisers on a rushed port-of-call visit, so the main sights don't get anything like that number each day. ;)

 

BTW, love St Lucia, but don't like Castries.

 

JB :)

Edited January 16, 2016 by John Bull

[CPT Trips]

have been to istanbul many times and deeply saddened by the atrocity .

 

putting things into perspective - 7/7 didnt prevent me from visiting london. 9/11 didnt stop me from going to the USA - going back Tuesday.

 

there is a risk with everything in life. find it a bit odd that a country with so much gun freedom and terrible attacks on schools etc seems to have so many citizens frightened of europe[emoji32]

 

It is ironic that the day-to-day level of violent crime here doesn't deter more visitors from other countries. :rolleyes:

[Extra Kim]

Sometimes it's just strange how logic gets replaced by fear.

 

150 people (+ 10 terrorists) died in Europe in terrorist attacks during 2015 according to Wikipedia (might not be the best reference, but often they are accurate).

 

26 people have been killed by the American police THIS year, 1138 was killed during 2015 in the U.S.

There's ~ 318 millions living in the U.S and ~ 708 millions living in Europe and still the U.S police kills 7.6 times as many as the terrorists in Europe.

 

If you look at this with a statistic point of view, you should have a bigger fear for the U.S police then the terrorists in Europe.

 

 

This is just food for thoughts:

Terrorism vs. Gun Violence

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/10/02/us/oregon-shooting-terrorism-gun-violence/

 

References:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrorism_in_the_European_Union

 

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2015/jun/01/the-counted-map-us-police-killings

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_human_population

[sail7seas]

Sometimes it's just strange how logic gets replaced by fear.

 

150 people (+ 10 terrorists) died in Europe in terrorist attacks during 2015 according to Wikipedia (might not be the best reference, but often they are accurate).

 

26 people have been killed by the American police THIS year, 1138 was killed during 2015 in the U.S.

There's ~ 318 millions living in the U.S and ~ 708 millions living in Europe and still the U.S police kills 7.6 times as many as the terrorists in Europe.

 

If you look at this with a statistic point of view, you should have a bigger fear for the U.S police then the terrorists in Europe.

 

 

This is just food for thoughts:

Terrorism vs. Gun Violence

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/10/02/us/oregon-shooting-terrorism-gun-violence/

 

References:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrorism_in_the_European_Union

 

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2015/jun/01/the-counted-map-us-police-killings

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_human_population

 

 

 

If you want to talk statistics, don't leave out the fact our population exceeds 319 million people. Do some per capita statistics when comparing country A to country B etc.

 

In a country with 8 million people, a count of 150 is many more per capita than a country with 319+ million

people.

 

I have no desire to get into political discussions some seem on the fine line of suggesting. I am just pointing out an important distinction.

 

Edited January 17, 2016 by sail7seas

[TravelerThom]

If you want to talk statistics, don't leave out the fact our population exceeds 319 million people...

The msg you responded to DID include population figures for the areas under consideration. Are you quibbling over his figure of ~318 million in the US versus your figure of 319+ million. Did you actually read the msg to which you responded?:confused:

[John Bull]

The msg you responded to DID include population figures for the areas under consideration. Are you quibbling over his figure of ~318 million in the US versus your figure of 319+ million. Did you actually read the msg to which you responded?:confused:

 

In the greater scheme of things 1million makes no odds.

But if you read S7S's post it is actually comparing the US population of 317m/318 million against Europe's population of 708 million.

And that is a significant difference.

 

JB :)

Edited January 17, 2016 by John Bull

[iancal]

It comes down to perception. Many Americans do not perceive that their country is violent or that they have just as many, or more, deaths from mass shooting than there are from terrorist acts in Europe.

 

Many of the mass deaths in Europe are in public spaces. In America it seems to be in schools, offices, etc. so perhaps this changes the perception.

 

People outside of the US certainly view the US as violent but I think they may also perceive that it is a safer environment. Alas, the statistics prove this wrong. We are just as aware of our surroundings when we are in Miami/FLL or LA/San Diego as we are in Athens or Istanbul

[dsrdsrdsr]

People outside of the US certainly view the US as violent but I think they may also perceive that it is a safer environment. Alas, the statistics prove this wrong. We are just as aware of our surroundings when we are in Miami/FLL or LA/San Diego as we are in Athens or Istanbul

 

No, I don't think people in Europe see the US as a safer environment than Europe. Europe isn't full of people cowering in fear of terrorists, any more than the USA was full of people cowering away after your various terrorist attacks.

[moniquet]

Whatever, for the time being I shall be flying West, Florida or the Caribbean, maybe Hawaii. Seen most of Europe some time ago when it was nice and not crowded like now. Expensive too with the euro. My perception is I am less likely to get bombed or beheaded in the USA and Caribbean whatever the stats say.:D

 

Anyway, the weather is better out West.

Edited January 17, 2016 by moniquet

[John Bull]

Whatever, for the time being I shall be flying West, Florida or the Caribbean, maybe Hawaii. Seen most of Europe some time ago when it was nice and not crowded like now. Expensive too with the euro. My perception is I am less likely to get bombed or beheaded in the USA and Caribbean whatever the stats say.:D

 

Anyway, the weather is better out West.

 

Are you looking to start a debate on the relative safety of various Caribbean ports? :D

 

JB :)

[Extra Kim]

If you want to talk statistics, don't leave out the fact our population exceeds 319 million people. Do some per capita statistics when comparing country A to country B etc.

 

In a country with 8 million people, a count of 150 is many more per capita than a country with 319+ million

people.

 

I have no desire to get into political discussions some seem on the fine line of suggesting. I am just pointing out an important distinction.

 

There's no need to be defensive, fear isn't logical. No matter what kind of dangerous subject we are talking about. Before I started studying at the university, I worked with indoor climate / ventilation. That meant that I often walked around on rooftops, used dangerous tools and so on. Not once did someone in my family tell me that I had a dangerous job and that I needed to be careful. During my time at the university I had a part time job at the local prison, a job where I never felt unsafe. Compared to my other job this was a really safe workplace, but several relatives told me to be careful at work and they where worried that something would happen to me. Fear isn't logical...

 

The topic is about Europe, and to be honest in this thread most seem to look at Europe like a area that's all the same.

We can compare France (the European country that suffered by the most lethal terror attacks during 2015), vs. people killed by the police in the U.S during 2015.

148 died in terror attacks in France during 2015 and 1138 was killed during 2015 in the U.S by the police.

66,03 millon people live in France and 318,9 millon people live in th U.S (both according to Google).

France: 148/66,03million = 0.000002241 = 0.002241‰ (per mille)

USA: 1138/318,9million = 0.0000035685 = 0.0035685‰ (per mille)

 

If we would take Denmark, that had the other two that died in a terror attack during 2015, I still don't think that the numbers would be in the favor of the U.S.

 

In the greater scheme of things 1million makes no odds.

But if you read S7S's post it is actually comparing the US population of 317m/318 million against Europe's population of 708 million.

And that is a significant difference.

 

JB :)

Yes there is a significant difference, but not to the advantage for the U.S.

[Floridiana]

Yes there is a significant difference, but not to the advantage for the U.S.

 

Fear isn't logical. ;)

[Extra Kim]

Fear isn't logical. ;)

Well in this case I was referring to the numbers, since the U.S are less populated then Europe but still more people get killed in the U.S if we compare terror attacks vs. the police.

 

Would I rather cruise with 10 U.S police officers than one terrorist? Of Course:D

[sail7seas]

In the greater scheme of things 1million makes no odds.

But if you read S7S's post it is actually comparing the US population of 317m/318 million against Europe's population of 708 million.

And that is a significant difference.

 

JB :)

 

No, that is not what I wrote.

I asked for comparison for country vs country not U.S. vs. E.U.

 

I never mentioned EU.

What is the per capita comparison of Norway to U.S?

Sweden to U.S.?

Belgium?

The Netherlands?

You get the picture.

 

The topic is about Europe in general and about specific countries some might avoid at this time and other countries they would visit. There are some EU countries for each category.

 

Edited January 17, 2016 by sail7seas

[Extra Kim]

I gave you one example France and still the risk is greater to be killed by the U.S police in the U.S than the risk of getting killed by terrorists in France.

 

Keep in mind that the E.U and Europe are two different things, for example Norway isn't a part of the E.U.

[sail7seas]

Yes, I am aware not all countries in Europe are part of EU. :)

 

 

 

[cruisemom42]

Fear isn't logical. ;)

 

With those three words I think you've hit the central truth.

 

It is certainly more dangerous to drive a car than to fly (as borne out by statistics), yet you'll find more people with a fear of flying than of driving.

 

It doesn't matter to some if the overall risk of being involved in any terrorism incident is miniscule, their fear will not let them enjoy their travel to somewhere they deem dangerous. I have no issue with that at all. Certainly there is no point in traveling somewhere if one feels uncomfortable.

 

What I object to is when others try to distort the facts to fit their fears.

[TravelerThom]

...The topic is about Europe in general and about specific countries some might avoid at this time and other countries they would visit...

If I knew which specific countries were next to get hit and which were absolutely safe, the NSA, CIA, MI-6 and probably the FSB would have already called and asked for my help:rolleyes:

 

One can have a broad concept of danger and risk, but the only people who know where the next terror attack might be are the terrorists. The smaller the sample sizes one uses in statistics, the greater the error margins. I consider Norway a very safe country in general (whether discussing auto accident deaths, murder rate, mugging probability or a number of other areas), but when 77 people (in a country of 5 million) were killed by a single deranged individual in 2011, statistics would show that Norway was extremely unsafe.

...What I object to is when others try to distort the facts to fit their fears.

I 100% agree with cruisemom42! Edited January 17, 2016 by TravelerThom

[sail7seas]

Indeed.

 

Edited January 17, 2016 by sail7seas