Jump to content
Cruise Critic Community

Info on Hurricane Irma

Swinden

By Swinden,
in Celebrity Cruises

 Share

Recommended Posts

Swinden

Swinden

Posted
Posted

Atlantic – Hurricane Irma:The storm track for Irma is getting closer to northernLeeward Islands with each new forecast Hurricane Watches are now in effect.

 

Irma has been moving more westward since the previous advisory,but the longer-term motion estimate is still south of due west or 260/12kt. A strong high pressure ridge overthe central Atlantic should steer Irma westward to west-southwestward duringthe next couple of days. After thattime, a turn toward the west-northwest should occur as Irma approaches thewestern portion of the Atlantic ridge. The cross-track spread of the guidance is still relatively small throughday 5, but the ECMWF, UKMET, and HWRF are on the southern side of the guidanceenvelope, with the GFS near the middle of the envelope. The latest NHC track is once again near theconsensus of these typically reliable models, which is between the southernedge of the guidance and the TCVN multi-model consensus. The updated track is not very different fromthe previous advisory, except at day 5 where it is slightly west of theprevious forecast.

 

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast tracksince strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center. Infact, ASCAT data that arrived after the issuance of the previous advisoryindicated that the size of the tropical-storm-force wind field has expanded,especially over the northern semicircle. As a result, the initial and forecast wind radii have been adjusted accordingly.

 

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is expected to impact the northeastern Leeward Islandsby the middle of this week as a major hurricane, accompanied by dangerous wind,storm surge, and rainfall impacts, along with rough surf and rip currents. Hurricane watches have been issued for portionsof the Leeward Islands and additional hurricane or tropical storm watches maybe required on Monday. Residents inthese areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice given by officials.

 

2. Irma is expected to remain a dangerous major hurricanethrough the upcoming week and could directly affect the British and U.S. VirginIslands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas.Residents in all of these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listento advice given by officials. Tropical stormor hurricane watches could be issued for the British and U.S. Virgin Islandsand Puerto Rico on Monday.

 

3. It is too early to determine what direct impacts Irma mighthave on the continental United States. Regardless, everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that theyhave their hurricane plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.

 

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma waslocated near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 49.8 West. Irma is moving toward thewest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westwardto west-southwestward motion with some reduction in forward speed is expectedthrough Monday night. On the forecasttrack, the center of Irma is forecast to approach the northern Leeward Islandslate Tuesday.

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on theSaffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-forcewinds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center andtropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).

 

Watches& Warning

 

The government of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Watchfor the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis.

 

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Hurricane Watch for the islands of Saba, St. Eustatius, andSint Maarten.

 

The government of France has issued a Hurricane Watchfor St. Martin and Saint Barthelemy.

 

Interests in the remainder of the Leeward Islands, the Britishand U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Irma. Additional Hurricane and Tropical StormWatches may be required for portions of this area on Monday.

 

Hazards affectingland

----------------------

WIND: Hurricaneconditions are possible within the watch area by Tuesday night, with tropicalstorm conditions possible by late Tuesday.

 

Eastern Atlantic – A tropical wave located several hundred milessouthwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showersand thunderstorms that are currently displaced well to the west of the waveaxis. Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development during thenext few days, and a tropical depression could form by the end of the weekwhile the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph over thetropical Atlantic Ocean.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Swinden

Swinden

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)

Here is the latest info as of 11:00 am EDT / AST

 

Western Atlantic – Hurricane Irmais a Cat 3 storm and is expected to be a Cat 4 stormas it passes dangerous close, if not over, to some of the northeastern LeewardIsland. Hurricane warnings issued forportions of the Leeward Islands and hurricane watches issuedfor the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

The satellitepresentation of Irma has improved markedly over the past 24 hours, with the eyebecoming larger and much more distinct. Irma is expected to remain within avery favorable environment for strengthening during the next several days andadditional intensification appears likely. However, eyewall replacement cycles arelikely to cause some fluctuations in intensity during that time. The NHCforecast brings the hurricane to category 4 strength within the next 24 hours,and then maintains Irma as a powerful hurricane during the next 5 days,assuming that the core of the cyclone does not move over any of the Greater Antilles.

Irma has been moving west-southwestward or 255/11 kt to thesouth of a strong mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. The hurricane should turn westward latertoday or tonight, then west-northwestward Tuesday as it reaches thesouthwestern portion of the ridge. As mentionedin the previous NHC discussion, a large mid-latitude trough is expected toamplify over the eastern United States during the next few days. The global models are unanimous in liftingthe trough out to the northeast by late in the week, allowing the Atlanticridge to build westward on days 3 through 5. The track guidance has again shifted westward and southwestward at days4 and 5, but the models remain in very good agreement through the forecast period. The updated NHC track forecast has beenadjusted southwestward late in the period, and lies very near the consensus ofthe ECMWF, GFS, and HWRF models.

Interests are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast tracksince strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center. Inaddition, average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days4 and 5, respectively.

Key messages:

1. Irma is expected to affect the northeastern Leeward Islandsas a dangerous major hurricane, accompanied by life-threatening wind, stormsurge, and rainfall impacts, along with rough surf and rip currents. Hurricanewarnings have been issued for portions of the Leeward Islands. Preparationsshould be rushed to completion, as tropical-storm force winds are expected tofirst arrive in the hurricane warning area by late Tuesday.

2. Irma could directly affect the British and U.S. VirginIslands and Puerto Rico as a dangerous major hurricane later this week. Hurricanewatches have been issued for these areas, and tropical-storm-force winds couldarrive in these areas by early Wednesday.

3. Irma could directly affect Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos,the Bahamas, and Cuba as a dangerous major hurricane later this week. Residentsin these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice givenby officials.

4. There is an increasing chance of seeing some impacts fromIrma in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys later this week and this weekend.In addition, rough surf and dangerous marine conditions will begin to affectthe southeastern U.S. coast by later this week. Otherwise, it is still tooearly to determine what direct impacts Irma might have on the continentalUnited States. However, everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure thatthey have their hurricane plan in place, as we are now near the peak of theseason.

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was locatednear latitude 16.8 North, longitude 53.3 West or about 560 mi...905 km E of the leeward islands. Irma is movingtoward the west-southwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected latertoday, followed by a west-northwestward turn late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Irmawill move near or over portions of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday night andearly Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on theSaffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast through Tuesday night. Hurricane-forcewinds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center andtropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).

Watches & Warnings

Changes with this advisory:

The government of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Warning for the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St.Kitts, and Nevis. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the British Virgin Islands.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Hurricane Warning for the islands of Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten.

The government of France has issued a Hurricane Warning for St. Martin and Saint Barthelemy. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Guadeloupe.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for theU.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra.

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical StormWatch for Dominica.

Summary of watchesand warnings in effect:

A HurricaneWarningis in effect for...

* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis

* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten

* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Guadeloupe

* British Virgin Islands

* U.S. Virgin Islands

* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Dominica

Hazards affectingland

----------------------

STORM SURGE: Thecombination of a dangerous storm surge and large breaking waves will raisewater levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels along thecoasts of the extreme northern Leeward Islands within the hurricane warningarea near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompaniedby large and destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricaneconditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by Tuesday night,with tropical storm conditions expected by late Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within thehurricane watch area by late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possibleby early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Irma isexpected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches across theLeeward Islands, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches across the northernLeeward Islands. These rainfall amounts may cause life-threatening flash floodsand mudslides.

Discussion– Dangerous and life-threatening conditions are expected across the northernCaribbean this week as Major Hurricane Irma barrels through. Irma is expectedto bring deteriorating and perhaps devastating conditions across the LeewardIslands Tuesday and Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Irma, currently a Category 3 hurricane, will passnear or over the Leeward Islands Tuesday night into Wednesday, and may undergofurther intensification. The current track of Irma will put Antigua andBarbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, Anguilla and the U.S. and BritishVirgin Islands, in the brunt of the storm's rain and wind during this time.Impacts could also be felt across the far northern Windward Islands as well.

Irma poses an imminent danger to these areas. Preparations for the storm shouldbe rushed to completion in these areas. Widespread power outages and damage totrees and structures are likely where the eye of the storm passes directly overor makes its closest approach.

Irma will track near Puerto Rico Wednesday andWednesday night, delivering flooding rain and damaging winds along with thethreat for mudslides. Rainfall will be heavy enough to trigger flash flooding,mudslides and road washouts. Amounts of 4 to 8 inches of rain can be expectedon the islands.

Farther to the west, interests on Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, theBahamas and eastern Cuba should closely monitor the progression of MajorHurricane Irma. A track near or over these locations is becoming increasinglylikely towards the end of the week, which would bring life-threateningconditions to residents and any vacationers.

 

However, fluctuations in Irma’s strength and track are expected over the nextcouple of days, so the exact track the hurricane will take is still unknown.Regardless, interests are urged to prepare now and have a plan in place.

Uncertainty greatly increases heading into theweekend and next week as Irma tracks closer to the United States coastline. Giventhe uncertainty that remains, all interests along the Gulf and East coastsshould closely monitor the forecast path of Irma this week and review emergencyand evacuation procedures in case they need to be implemented.

Behind Irma, a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms located hundredsof miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands will need to be monitored forpotential development. This system will move into a favorable environment fororganizing and gaining strength as it moves to the west-northwest toward theLesser Antilles during the latter part of this week. The next storm in theAtlantic Basin would acquire

Edited by Swinden
for formatting
Link to comment
Share on other sites
C 2 C

C 2 C

Posted
Posted

Thank you for the updates.

 

One person's misery is another person's gain.

 

We board Summit next week in Bayonne and were worrying whether we would be chased up the coast to Canada.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Globehoppers

Globehoppers

Posted
Posted (edited)

Best information and updates on Irma come from the National Hurricane Center: www dot nhc dot noaa dot gov.

 

www dot spaghettimodels dot com provides a multitude of graphics and track models from all sources on hurricanes and is an excellent up-to-date source of information.

Edited by Globehoppers
Link to comment
Share on other sites
boscobeans

boscobeans

Posted
Posted
Best information and updates on Irma come from the National Hurricane Center: www dot nhc dot noaa dot gov.

 

www dot spaghettimodels dot com provides a multitude of graphics and track models from all sources on hurricanes and is an excellent up-to-date source of information.

 

Weather Underground is also pretty good.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/tropical-storm-irma

 

bosco

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Swinden

Swinden

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Here is the latest....

Western Atlantic – Major Hurricane Irma becomes an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane. Preparations should be rushed to completion in the hurricane warning area. With regards to wind damage, the most destructive winds remain about 45 miles from the center, obvious any direct hit will have catastrophic consequences, outside of the 45 miles or so can expect tropical storm force winds. For right now, there are a number of islands (Barbuda, St. Barts, St Maarten, Anguilla, and the British Virgin Islands) that are in the direct path of Irma. But remember, storm surge and flooding causes the most widespread damage and deaths.

 

The initial intensity has been increased to 150 kt, making Irma an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane. Some additional strengthening is still possible, but fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next couple of days due to eyewall replacement cycles.

 

Key messages:

 

1. Irma is expected to affect the northeastern Leeward Islands as an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane, accompanied by life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall. Hurricane warnings are in effect for portions of the Leeward Islands. Preparations should be rushed to completion, as tropical-storm force winds are expected to first arrive in the hurricane warning area later today.

 

2. Irma is also expected to affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico as a dangerous major hurricane beginning tomorrow, with life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall. Hurricane warnings have been issued for these areas, and tropical-storm-force winds are expected to arrive in these areas by early tomorrow.

 

3. Irma could directly affect Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane later this week. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice given by officials.

 

4. There is an increasing chance of seeing some impacts from Irma in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys later this week and this weekend. Otherwise, it is still too early to determine what direct impacts Irma might have on the continental United States. However, everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.

 

At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the distinct eye center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 57.7 West about 270 mi...440 km E of Antigua and about 280 mi...445 km ESE of Barbuda. Irma is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest tonight. On the forecast track, the dangerous core of Irma will move near or over portions of the northern Leeward Islands tonight and early Wednesday.

 

Reports from NOAA and U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate Irma continues to strengthen and maximum sustained winds have increased to near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).

 

 

Watches & Warnings

 

 

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis

* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten

* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy

* British Virgin Islands

* U.S. Virgin Islands

* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra

 

 

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Guadeloupe

* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with

Haiti

 

 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Guadeloupe

* Dominica

 

 

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engao to Isla Saona

 

 

Hazards affecting land

 

 

Damage from a cat 5 hurricane direct hit: People, livestock, and pets are at very high risk of injury or death from flying or falling debris, even if indoors in mobile homes or framed homes. Almost complete destruction of all mobile homes will occur, regardless of age or construction. A high percentage of frame homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Extensive damage to roof covers, windows, and doors will occur. Large amounts of windborne debris will be lofted into the air. Windborne debris damage will occur to nearly all unprotected windows and many protected windows. Significant damage to wood roof commercial buildings will occur due to loss of roof sheathing. Complete collapse of many older metal buildings can occur. Most unreinforced masonry walls will fail which can lead to the collapse of the buildings. A high percentage of industrial buildings and low-rise apartment buildings will be destroyed. Nearly all windows will be blown out of high-rise buildings resulting in falling glass, which will pose a threat for days to weeks after the storm. Nearly all commercial signage, fences, and canopies will be destroyed. Nearly all trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Long-term water shortages will increase human suffering. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months. Hurricane Andrew (1992) is an example of a hurricane that brought Category 5 winds and impacts to coastal portions of Cutler Ridge, Florida with Category 4 conditions experienced elsewhere in south Miami-Dade County.

 

 

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels along the coasts of the extreme northern Leeward Islands within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

 

 

British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...7 to 11 ft

Northern coast of Puerto Rico...2 to 4 ft

Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...1 to 2 ft

 

 

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the Leeward Islands by tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area where hurricane conditions are also possible. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican Republic by early Thursday.

 

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches across the northern Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. These rainfall amounts may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

 

SURF: Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

 

Discussion - Life-threatening conditions are expected across the northern Caribbean this week as Category 5 Hurricane Irma barrels through. Irma is expected to bring deteriorating and perhaps devastating conditions across the Leeward Islands into Wednesday. Irma strengthened to a Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 175 mph (280 km/h) this morning, becoming the strongest storm in the Atlantic Basin since 2007. Irma will pass near or over the Leeward Islands tonight into Wednesday.

 

The current track of Irma will put Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, Anguilla and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, in the brunt of the storm's rain and wind during this time. Impacts could also be felt across the far northern Windward Islands as well.

 

Irma poses an imminent danger to these areas, where preparations for the storm should be rushed to completion. Widespread power outages and significant damage to trees and structures are likely where the eye of the storm passes directly over or makes its closest approach. The power may be out for weeks in some communities.

 

Expect very rough and dangerous surf along with damaging tropical-storm-force and hurricane-force winds over the northern Leeward Islands, and tropical-storm-force winds over the southern Leewards to perhaps the northern Windward Islands, mostly in gusts.

 

Irma will track near Puerto Rico Wednesday and Wednesday night, delivering flooding rain and damaging winds along with the threat for mudslides. Rainfall will be heavy enough to trigger flash flooding, mudslides and road washouts. Amounts of 4 to 8 inches of rain can be expected on the islands.

 

Interests on Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas and eastern Cuba should closely monitor the progression of Major Hurricane Irma. A track near or over these locations is becoming increasingly likely towards the end of the week, which would bring life-threatening conditions to residents and any vacationers.

 

The greatest impacts would be felt Thursday and Thursday night for Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos Islands. By Friday, Cuba and the Bahamas could begin to be severely impacted. These areas should prepare for devastating hurricane conditions.

 

However, fluctuations in Irma’s strength and track are expected over the next couple of days, so the exact track the hurricane will take is still unknown. Regardless, interests are urged to prepare now and have a plan in place.

 

Uncertainty greatly increases heading into the weekend and next week as Irma tracks closer to the United States coastline.

 

Given the uncertainty that remains, all interests along the Gulf and East coasts should closely monitor the forecast path of Irma this week and review emergency and evacuation procedures in case they need to be implemented.

 

Forecast for the U.S.

 

As Major Hurricane Irma churns across the western Atlantic and towards the United States, interests along the Gulf and East coasts of the U.S. need to be on alert.

 

Irma could track somewhere along the Gulf or East coasts this weekend or next week. Interests are urged to prepare now.

 

This hurricane has the potential to be a major event for the East Coast. It also has the potential to significantly strain FEMA and other governmental resources occurring so quickly on the heels of Harvey. A landfall in Florida, Georgia or the Carolinas is all in the realm of possibilities. Irma could also head into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Another scenario still on the table is that Irma curve northward and miss the East Coast entirely. This would still generate large surf and rip currents along the East Coast. However, this scenario is the least likely to occur at this point.

 

On Monday afternoon, Florida Gov. Rick Scott declared a state of emergency for every county in Florida in anticipation of Irma. A state of emergency was also declared in Puerto Rico earlier in the day.

The exact path of Irma beyond the end of the week remains uncertain and will depend on a variety of moving parts in the atmosphere.

 

The eastward or northeast progression of a non-tropical system pushing across the central and eastern U.S. this week will highly impact the long-range movement of Irma. How fast or slow this non-tropical system moves will be an important factor on where Irma is steered this weekend into next week. The speed of this feature will determine when and how much Irma gets pulled northward or whether Irma continues on more of a westward track.

 

This amount of uncertainty means that the entire southern and eastern U.S. should monitor Irma this week. Interests along the coast are urged to start preparing and making sure plans are in place to deal with the worst case scenario. This includes plans on how to evacuate.

 

Due to Irma following so closely on Harvey's heels and since FEMA and other government resources will be strained, more preparation and storm aftermath may rest on individuals. It may be crucial to evacuate ahead of the storm, so preparation is key.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Swinden

Swinden

Posted
  • Author
Posted
Best information and updates on Irma come from the National Hurricane Center: www dot nhc dot noaa dot gov.

 

www dot spaghettimodels dot com provides a multitude of graphics and track models from all sources on hurricanes and is an excellent up-to-date source of information.

 

Feel free to post complete URLs (such as http://www.nhc.noaa.gov ) vs spelling the URL out with DOT. There is no reason to type DOT.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Swinden

Swinden

Posted
  • Author
Posted

No real changes with the 11 am advisory, except Irma is a little stronger with maxsustained winds of 180 mph and the hurricane winds fan out 60 miles from thecenter of the storm. Preparations for Irma should be rushed tocompletion. Looks like the storm will pass through the northern LeewardIslands early tomorrow morning.

As of right now and if Irma stays on this track, looks likethe northeast side of St. Maarten will be pummeled with a direct hit. Anyone on the French side, especially on the eastside, needs to evacuate. If you are familiar with Orient Bay Beach, it will be “devastated” by a directhit with wind damage and storm surge.

As for Watches and Warnings, new with the 11 am EDT / ASTadvisory –

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Watch forthe

Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeasternBahamas, including the

Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas,Mayaguana, and the

Ragged Islands.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the north coast of Haitifrom

the border of the Dominican Republic westwardto Le Mole St.

Nicholas. A Tropical Storm Watch has beenissued from south of Le

Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
miched

miched

Posted
Posted

We were caught in Wilma when in Ft Lauderdale for a crusie the next day. Most of the tips are if you drive but some are also if you fly in the night before.

 

Here are a few tips if you are driving to the port and parking there. So you will be able to get out of town when the cruise is over and in case you get stuck before the cruise.

 

Make sure that's you have a full tank of gas before parking as gas becomes hard to get. Ft Lauderdale's port was damaged and the ship had to dock in Miami. We had to get there and the ship left two days later.

 

Have a case of water in your car.

 

Have cash as many places can't accept credit cards because there isn't any electricity.

 

Have some non perishable food items in your car or room so you will have something to eat as many places will be closed, and restaurants can't make anything because of no power and no personnel.

 

Make sure that your cellphones are charged because the power will go out.

 

The water will also be shut off. I used the trash can to get water from the pool to flush the toilet. You may want to fill the bathtub up with water before it gets shut off to use to do that and to wash your hands and etc.

 

 

Happy cruising 🌊🚢🇺🇸🌞

Link to comment
Share on other sites
hcat "Live from...." Rare

hcat

Posted
Posted

Try to park at least one level up from street level...but not too high as elevs wont work without electricity... we travel with a weather radio, crank cell phone charger and personal flashlights...basic safety kit stuff.,

 

Hoping the Islands come thru ok and Fla is spared!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Swinden

Swinden

Posted
  • Author
Posted

The 5 pm EDT / AST advisory - not good for St Barts and St Maarten.

 

WesternAtlantic – Leeward Islands – Major Hurricane Irma:In this advisory the trackhas shifted slightly to the south which puts the islands of Barbuda, St. Barts,St Maarten, and the Virgin Islands in the direct path of the center ofIrma. Remember the center is where themost destructive winds are. With regardsto St Maarten, the center is now going through Philipsburg and theinternational airport. The storm maycause quite a bit of destruction to the airport, which is the regionalinternational airport for the northern Leeward Islands. Tropical storm force winds will begin tobatter the Leeward Islands in a few hours.

The eye of Irma is within range of the Meteo France radar in the northeasternCaribbean, and recent images show the development of an outer eyewall, likelythe beginning stages of an eyewall replacement. These changes in inner-core structure will likely result in fluctuationsin intensity during the next couple of days. Otherwise, increasing upper-oceanheat content and a very favorable upper-level pattern are expected to allowIrma to remain a category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next several days. Once again, the NHC forecast shows limitedinteraction of the hurricane with the islands of the Greater Antilles.

Fixes from the latest satellite and radar imagery suggest that Irma ismoving a little north of due west or 280/13 kt. A strong ridge extending southwestward from the central Atlantic isexpected to steer Irma west-northwestward during the couple of days. A large mid-latitude trough over the easternUnited States is forecast to lift northeastward, allowing the ridge to buildwestward and keep Irma on a westward to west-northwestward heading throughFriday. Over the weekend, a shortwave trough diving southward over the east-centralU.S. is expected to weaken the western portion of the ridge, causing Irma toturn poleward. The dynamical model guidanceis in good agreement through 72 hours, but there is increasing spreadthereafter. The HWRF, UKMET, and ECMWFshow a more southerly track and a sharper turn around day 5, while the GFS isfarther north and east late in the period. The NHC track is near a consensus of these models and close to the HFIPcorrected consensus. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track,especially at the longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors are about175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.

Key messages:

1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will bringlife-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to portions of thenortheastern Leeward Islands tonight and tomorrow. These hazards will spreadinto the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tomorrow. Preparations should be rushed to completionbefore the arrival of tropical-storm force winds tomorrow morning in Virgin Islandsand Puerto Rico.

2. A hurricane warning is in effect for the northern coast of the DominicanRepublic, with hurricane watches for Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas and theTurks and Caicos. Irma is likely to bringdangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall to these areas from Wednesday nightthrough Friday.

3. Irma could directly affect the remainder of the Bahamas and Cuba asan extremely dangerous major hurricane later this week. Residents in theseareas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice given byofficials.

4. The chance of direct impacts from Irma beginning later this week andthis weekend from wind, storm surge, and rainfall continues to increase in theFlorida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula. However, it is too soon tospecify the timing and magnitude of these impacts.

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Irma was locatednear latitude 17.1 North, longitude 59.8 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is forecastto begin tonight and continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the extremelydangerous core of Irma will move over portions of the northern Leeward Islands tonightand early Wednesday, move near or over portions of the northern Virgin IslandsWednesday, and pass near or just north of Puerto Rico late Wednesday andWednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is an extremely dangerous category 5hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likelyduring the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extendoutward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force windsextend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

Watches andwarnings

--------------------

Changes with this advisory:

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a HurricaneWarningalong the north coast of the Dominican Republic from the border with Haitieastward to Cabo Engano. A tropical storm warning has been issued for the south coast ofthe Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the southernborder with Haiti.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis

* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten

* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy

* British Virgin Islands

* U.S. Virgin Islands

* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra

* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Guadeloupe

* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le MoleSt. Nicholas

* Turks and Caicos Islands

* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Guadeloupe

* Dominica

* Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the southernborder with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince

Hazards affecting land

STORM SURGE: The combination of alife-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levelsABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warningarea near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompaniedby large and destructive waves.

Northern Leeward Islands...7 to 11 ft

Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft

Southeastern Bahamas...15 to 20 ft

Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft

Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will causenormally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inlandfrom the shoreline. The water isexpected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occursat the time of high tide...

British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...7 to 11 ft

Northern coast of Puerto Rico...3 to 5 ft

Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshorewinds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on therelative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over shortdistances. For information specific toyour area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Serviceforecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions areexpected within the hurricane warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, withtropical storm conditions beginning within the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are expected to beginwithin the hurricane warning area in the British and U.S. Virgin Islands andPuerto Rico on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginningtonight. Hurricane conditions areexpected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republicearly Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning Wednesday night.

Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watcharea in Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas byearly Thursday.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected toproduce the following rain accumulations through Thursday:

Northern Leeward Islands...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches

Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St.Croix...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches

Southwest Puerto Rico, the southern Leeward Islands, and St. Croix...2to 4 inches

Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations Wednesdaythrough Saturday:

Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches

Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...4 to 10 inches, isolated15 inches

Southwest Haiti...1 to 4 inches

These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Irmawill affect the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, thesoutheastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the northern coast ofthe Dominican Republic during the next several days. These swells are likely to causelife-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Please sign in to comment

You will be able to leave a comment after signing in



Sign In Now
 Share
Go to topic listing
  • Forum Jump
    • Categories
      • Welcome to Cruise Critic
      • ANNOUNCEMENT: Set Sail on Sun Princess®
      • Hurricane Zone 2024
      • Cruise Insurance Q&A w/ Steve Dasseos of Tripinsurancestore.com June 2024
      • New Cruisers
      • Cruise Lines “A – O”
      • Cruise Lines “P – Z”
      • River Cruising
      • ROLL CALLS
      • Cruise Critic News & Features
      • Digital Photography & Cruise Technology
      • Special Interest Cruising
      • Cruise Discussion Topics
      • UK Cruising
      • Australia & New Zealand Cruisers
      • Canadian Cruisers
      • North American Homeports
      • Ports of Call
      • Cruise Conversations
×
×
  • Create New...