Carnival Stock

[Ombud]

We're an optimistic bunch, aren't we!🙃🙂

[billco]

2 hours ago, resistk said:

 

What makes you think Carnival will even keep the OBC for shareholders?  If I was management that would be the first thing I would cut given the company is in dire straits.

I would make deposits and the military credit nonrefundable before I would eliminate the stockholder credit.

Edited April 3, 2020 by billco

[Roberto256]

1 hour ago, 2 cruises a year said:

 

It has been suggested on these boards that if Carnival dropped the OBC for share holders that the value of the stock would take a big hit by the many of the stock holders dumping their shares.  I wonder how many stock holders have only the required, for OBC, 100 shares?

How much 'room' is there left, for a big hit?

 

[2 cruises a year]

1 hour ago, 2 cruises a year said:

 

It has been suggested on these boards that if Carnival dropped the OBC for share holders that the value of the stock would take a big hit by the many of the stock holders dumping their shares.  I wonder how many stock holders have only the required, for OBC, 100 shares?

 

26 minutes ago, Roberto256 said:

How much 'room' is there left, for a big hit?

 

 

Good point!!  O.K, delete "big".

I'll probably never know, bit I am also genuinely curious how many only 100 share stock holders there are.

[npcl]

2 hours ago, travelhound said:

It looks like there is some hope for the the future of the cruise industry.  Cruise bookings are actually up for 2021.

 

https://nypost.com/2020/04/01/cruise-bookings-are-on-the-rise-for-2021-despite-coronavirus/

Not that much putting it in context.  You are talking about a comparison between 2020 and 2021 based upon cruises booked by March the year before.

 

So the baseline is the percentage of cruises booked atleast 9 month in advance.  If you take the number of cruises canceled this year, the number of FCC's issued that need to be used in with 12 or 18 months by the various cruise lines and add them to the base percentage, not surprise to see higher early booking numbers.  Actually expect it to continue higher for the next 3 months, especially if you get more cancellations and the cruise lines maintain the high percentage of FCCs vs cash refunds. 

 

The real question is how many non-fcc funded reservations are the cruise lines getting.

[travelhound]

6 minutes ago, npcl said:

Not that much putting it in context.  You are talking about a comparison between 2020 and 2021 based upon cruises booked by March the year before.

 

So the baseline is the percentage of cruises booked atleast 9 month in advance.  If you take the number of cruises canceled this year, the number of FCC's issued that need to be used in with 12 or 18 months by the various cruise lines and add them to the base percentage, not surprise to see higher early booking numbers.  Actually expect it to continue higher for the next 3 months, especially if you get more cancellations and the cruise lines maintain the high percentage of FCCs vs cash refunds. 

 

The real question is how many non-fcc funded reservations are the cruise lines getting.

In the current environment, any sign of an increase in bookings is encouraging.

[npcl]

I did find one article that says that CCL is getting 45% to take FCCs instead of cash refunds. Other lines are pushing the refund even harder so according to one article there have been 900 cruises canceled to date impacted 4.5 million passengers.  So if we apply the 45% figure that gives us around 2 million passengers trying to apply their FCCs with a fairly high percentage booking in 2021.

[drowelf]

1 hour ago, 2 cruises a year said:

 

 

Good point!!  O.K, delete "big".

I'll probably never know, bit I am also genuinely curious how many only 100 share stock holders there are.

The institutional investor hold over 85% of the stock (~450M Shares). I believe the Arison? family also holds a large %. So the curisers who own the 100+ shares are in a small minority. I believe the OBC is probably pretty safe, as its a good marketing tool that does not result in any money leaving CCL, as its a credit against your on-board spending. The good will it generates probably outweighs the lost  revenue. Now Dividends and Stock Buybacks require CCL to spend its cash. Therefore they already got axed. 

[travelhound]

2 minutes ago, drowelf said:

The institutional investor hold over 85% of the stock (~450M Shares). I believe the Arison? family also holds a large %. So the curisers who own the 100+ shares are in a small minority. I believe the OBC is probably pretty safe, as its a good marketing tool that does not result in any money leaving CCL, as its a credit against your on-board spending. The good will it generates probably outweighs the lost  revenue. Now Dividends and Stock Buybacks require CCL to spend its cash. Therefore they already got axed. 

I suspect the OBC is safe for now.  It really doesn't cost them much.  After 8 cruises your purchase of 100 shares, @$8 a share, would be free.

[npcl]

Carnival's 10-Q for the quarter ending Feb 29.  Just before everything fell apart. So this still reflects fairly normal operations with the only impact being in Asia.

 

According to that filing current assets totaled 2,885 million and current liabilities totaled 10,716 million

 

Cash on had was 1,354 million 

 

Compared to

1.004 million in short term borrowing

2,196 million in current portion of long term debt

4,690 million in customer deposits  X .55 = cash payout 2,580 million

 

 

Now it has been indicated that they have been effective in converting 45% of cancellations into FCCs (which is actually smart on their part because one converted to FCC's the customer is locked in and cannot convernt them back to a cash refund)

 

We have the cash from their revolving line of credit of 2.8 billion and their recent cash raising effort yielding 6.25 billion 

if we add that in we get 10,404 million in cash

 

So doing at little back of napkin calculation we get 

 

10404 minus 5780 million in current liabilities

 

would give 

 

CCL about 4,624 billion in available cash

 

Now I do not think that they were able to save much in operating costs in March with savings from cruises not operating offset by increased payouts due to the less than smooth shutdown process, contract terminations with vendors, crew transport costs, etc

 

So  normal operating costs per month are around 1.8 billion

that gives CCL something like 3 billion to fund costs until this is over.  (plus whatever cash bookings are occurring for the end of this year and next year).

 

They certainly need to resume by the end of 2020.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 3, 2020 by npcl

[SJunie]

I finally pulled the trigger and bought 100 shares with the intention to leave them and not look at them.  I did notice this on Carnival's shareholder benefits page regarding the OBC for shareholders:

 

"The benefit is applicable on sailings through July 31, 2021 aboard the brands listed below. Certain restrictions apply. Applications to receive these benefits should be made at least three weeks prior to cruise departure date. This benefit is available to shareholders holding a minimum of 100 shares of Carnival Corporation or Carnival plc. Employees, travel agents cruising at travel agent rates, tour conductors or anyone cruising on a reduced-rate or complimentary basis are excluded from this offer. This benefit is not transferable, cannot be exchanged for cash and, cannot be used for casino credits/charges and gratuities charged to your onboard account. Only one onboard credit per shareholder-occupied stateroom. Reservations must be made by February 28, 2021."

 

I wonder if this means we won't see those benefits anymore if we book after Feb 28th, 2021, or go on any sailings after July 31, 2021.

[frugaltravel]

10 minutes ago, SJunie said:

I finally pulled the trigger and bought 100 shares with the intention to leave them and not look at them.  I did notice this on Carnival's shareholder benefits page regarding the OBC for shareholders:

 

"The benefit is applicable on sailings through July 31, 2021 aboard the brands listed below. Certain restrictions apply. Applications to receive these benefits should be made at least three weeks prior to cruise departure date. This benefit is available to shareholders holding a minimum of 100 shares of Carnival Corporation or Carnival plc. Employees, travel agents cruising at travel agent rates, tour conductors or anyone cruising on a reduced-rate or complimentary basis are excluded from this offer. This benefit is not transferable, cannot be exchanged for cash and, cannot be used for casino credits/charges and gratuities charged to your onboard account. Only one onboard credit per shareholder-occupied stateroom. Reservations must be made by February 28, 2021."

 

I wonder if this means we won't see those benefits anymore if we book after Feb 28th, 2021, or go on any sailings after July 31, 2021.

That wording has been there for years and always gets updated every year.

 

[SJunie]

4 minutes ago, frugaltravel said:

That wording has been there for years and always gets updated every year.

 

Good to know! 

[Aus Traveller]

16 hours ago, Aus Traveller said:

I have watched the Ruby Princess debacle unfolding for 14 days. Today is the first indication I have heard that blame is pointed at the Captain. For most of the 14 days, the head of the Aust Border Force insisted that the NSW Health Department was to blame. The Health Minister said "in hindsight, we should have kept the passengers on the ship". In previous reports, it was stated that emails had passed between the relevant parties - the ship, NSW Health and Border Force.

An update on the Ruby Princess. (I am posting this on the thread about stock prices, because that is where the discussion started with the comment that "criminal proceedings" in Australia would be very detrimental to Carnival Corp.)

 

Background: After guests disembarked, several tested positive for covid-19. The head of Border Force blamed NSW Health Department for allowing disembarkation. Just on Thursday, NSW Health Dept officials blamed the Captain, saying he had lied and the NSW Premier said the ship had misled health officials. She repeated this statement in several venues including a radio interview. 

 

The sh.. has now hit the fan! It has now been proven that the Health Department officials lied probably to cover their backsides, not the captain of Ruby Princess.

 

The front page headline in today's national newspaper The Australian,  is "Ruby shock: officials knew". The text of an email from the ship's doctor to NSW Health 9.39am March 18th (the day before docking):

PLEASE be aware, we have collected viral swabs for a few cases of "febrile, Influenza test negative" individuals, and have kept the guests isolated. Please advise on how to proceed on these guests, and whether you will be processing these tests tomorrow.

 

Email in reply from NSW Health to Ruby Princess, 5.07pm on March 18th, seven hours after being informed that the ship had sick passengers on board:

The NSW Health expert panel has assessed the Ruby Princess as NOT requiring on board health assessment in Sydney. We would however ask you to send the 15 samples to our lab for COVID testing.. You are free to disembark tomorrow, however according to the new Australian government guidance, all passengers must go into self-isolation for 14 days.

 

The ship also advised NSW Health that ambulances were required to urgently transport two ill passengers to hospital.

 

On Friday, Carnival supplied the Premier with copies of the emails and copies of biohazard documents from the ship proving that they followed all protocols. So far, no-one has apologised publicly for calling the captain of the Ruby Princess a liar. Later on Friday, the Premier said "I don't think it helps to point fingers and play the blame game ... it's unfair to blame anyone". What about the day before, when the Health Dept and the Premier herself, were openly and publicly blaming the captain.

[bluesea321]

6 minutes ago, Aus Traveller said:

An update on the Ruby Princess....

 

Have you seen this:

https://cruisepassenger.com.au/sick-crew-member-taken-off-ruby-princess/

 

Is it at all consistent with what you have heard?

 

[Aus Traveller]

3 minutes ago, bluesea321 said:

Have you seen this:

https://cruisepassenger.com.au/sick-crew-member-taken-off-ruby-princess/

Is it at all consistent with what you have heard?

 

Yes. That was the report before the email exchanges between the ship and NSW Health became public. The article you reference was part of the "blame the Captain" approach.

 

Clearly they should have kept the passengers on the ship until the swabs that the medical centre had taken could be urgently tested. When they had some positives (BTW only four of the 15 were positive) all of the other passengers should have gone into quarantine - not at home, but in a facility as was done with the returned passengers from the Diamond Princess. What we (Australia) ended up with was an unfolding and continuing disaster as these passengers returned to their homes (maybe not following the written instructions about self-isolating). The Ruby Princess is the source of the majority of COVID infections in Australia. ☹️

[bluesea321]

15 minutes ago, Aus Traveller said:

....Clearly they should have kept the passengers on the ship until the swabs that the medical centre had taken could be urgently tested. When they had some positives (BTW only four of the 15 were positive) all of the other passengers should have gone into quarantine - not at home, but in a facility as was done with the returned passengers from the Diamond Princess. What we (Australia) ended up with was an unfolding and continuing disaster as these passengers returned to their homes (maybe not following the written instructions about self-isolating). The Ruby Princess is the source of the majority of COVID infections in Australia. ☹️

 

Have you followed the Zaandam situation in the HAL threads?  The US passengers "fit to travel" were put in 2 charter flights out of Florida, to Atlanta and San Francisco, but after that they were on their own using commercial flights to their final destination.  So a similar situation may unfold but unlike Australia, it will not be traceable after they all disperse.  I have attached the agreement between CCL and Broward County in case you are interested, 21 pages however.  I have been at home under Stay at Home rules in this county so I have had the time.

Carnival-Complete-Agreement.pdf

[Aus Traveller]

25 minutes ago, bluesea321 said:

 

Have you followed the Zaandam situation in the HAL threads?  The US passengers "fit to travel" were put in 2 charter flights out of Florida, to Atlanta and San Francisco, but after that they were on their own using commercial flights to their final destination.  So a similar situation may unfold but unlike Australia, it will not be traceable after they all disperse.  I have attached the agreement between CCL and Broward County in case you are interested, 21 pages however.  I have been at home under Stay at Home rules in this county so I have had the time.

Carnival-Complete-Agreement.pdf 977.52 kB · 0 downloads

I have been reading about the Zaandam situation on the forum, but haven't read the HAL board.

 

It is unfortunate that the passengers will be flying all over the country and possibly to other countries. From March 21st, only Australian citizens or residents have been permitted to enter the country, but they have to go into quarantine in a hotel (guarded by the military) for 14 days at the government's expense. A few of them have complained, but they don't get much sympathy. 

 

BTW, my husband and I went into voluntary self-isolation at home on 16th March. My husband has gone out once to the supermarket and pharmacy for essential supplies. Here our major supermarkets' first hour of trading (7am - 8am) is for seniors or people with a disability. The stores re-stock the shelves over-night. In the first week, someone commented that you needed to be wearing knee pads and helmets to survive the crush, but when my husband went last Monday, there weren't many people there. He managed to get everything we wanted, but prior to that, many of the shelves were empty. Now the government has imposed rules on how many people can be in the store at any one time. Apparently here, the latest rush has been on the alcohol bottle shops. One of my sons got me some extra supplies last weekend. 😁

Edited April 4, 2020 by Aus Traveller

[neverbeenhere]

9 hours ago, Ombud said:

We're an optimistic bunch, aren't we!🙃🙂

Yesterday I was 100% optimistic when I bought x shares of CCL at just over 8.05 per share. I became 1000% optimistic when I sold them this morning at 8.67 per share. 
 

(yes, I know there is no difference between the two levels of optimism) 

 

Cruise into the future... (Sadly, Just not until 2022) 

[frugaltravel]

2 minutes ago, neverbeenhere said:

Yesterday I was 100% optimistic when I bought x shares of CCL at just over 8.05 per share. I became 1000% optimistic when I sold them this morning at 8.67 per share. 
 

(yes, I know there is no difference between the two levels of optimism) 

 

Cruise into the future... (Sadly, Just not until 2022) 

Hope you bought thousands of shares. Otherwise...

[neverbeenhere]

2 minutes ago, frugaltravel said:

Hope you bought thousands of shares. Otherwise...

Many Ks

[cruzsnooze]

maybe 

9 hours ago, travelhound said:

It looks like there is some hope for the the future of the cruise industry.  Cruise bookings are actually up for 2021.

 

https://nypost.com/2020/04/01/cruise-bookings-are-on-the-rise-for-2021-despite-coronavirus/

Maybe not..................per that article 

 people just optimistically re-booking their canceled cruise for next year

 people applying their future cruise credits from sailings that were cancelled this year

 

We'll have to see what really happens. 

[billco]

57 minutes ago, cruzsnooze said:

We'll have to see what really happens. 

I agree. Wonder why we spend so much talking about it.

[npcl]

21 minutes ago, billco said:

I agree. Wonder why we spend so much talking about it.

We have run out of better things to do while in shelter in place????

[travelhound]

Carnival currently has enough liquidity to last a year year and if they are able to resume operating by year end, they should have no problem serving their debt.  Looking at Expedia, it appears that the cruise industry is going to try to restart in June.  That may be a little optimistic, but a restart in the Fall seems realistic.