Host Carolyn said ccl starting may limited capacity, will rcl?

[JAMESCC]

8 minutes ago, PhillyFan33579 said:

I think the big issue is going to be how many new or infrequent cruisers will book/go on a cruise when cruises resume.  Probably pretty safe to say most of the people on this board are likely to resume cruising sooner than later.  But the cruise lines need more than just their loyal, frequent cruisers to survive.  

Well new and FCC bookings for 2021 are up 9% from last year. A certain Travel agency CEO I follow said the last few weeks have been the biggest booking weeks of his entire career. Surprised him, surprised me more. He said was a mix of brand new bookings and use of FCC. Either way people want to sail. The prediction of the demise of cruises is unwarranted. Just my opinion. 

[lr657]

1 minute ago, JAMESCC said:

Well new and FCC bookings for 2021 are up 9% from last year. A certain Travel agency CEO I follow said the last few weeks have been the biggest booking weeks of his entire career. Surprised him, surprised me more. He said was a mix of brand new bookings and use of FCC. Either way people want to sail. The prediction of the demise of cruises is unwarranted. Just my opinion. 

 

I think that most avid cruisers are anxious to sail, I know I am. We have 12 cruises booked in 2021 and I very much hope to sail on them. Realistically though, I have my doubts that many of those cruises will actually happen.

 

I am not surprised that 2021 bookings are up as I think many people are hoping it will be safe to cruise by then. The question is that even if a 2021 cruise is not cancelled, will those that booked actually sail them. People need to feel safe on a cruise and not worry about getting sick, quarantined or being able to dock at the ports. If cruisers don't want to take the risk, I think that they will cancel those booked 2021 cruises. Hopefully there will be enough safety measures in place and a vaccine so this doesn't happen. 

[JAMESCC]

27 minutes ago, lr657 said:

 

I think that most avid cruisers are anxious to sail, I know I am. We have 12 cruises booked in 2021 and I very much hope to sail on them. Realistically though, I have my doubts that many of those cruises will actually happen.

 

I am not surprised that 2021 bookings are up as I think many people are hoping it will be safe to cruise by then. The question is that even if a 2021 cruise is not cancelled, will those that booked actually sail them. People need to feel safe on a cruise and not worry about getting sick, quarantined or being able to dock at the ports. If cruisers don't want to take the risk, I think that they will cancel those booked 2021 cruises. Hopefully there will be enough safety measures in place and a vaccine so this doesn't happen. 

12 cruises in 2021! I am jealous! Hopefully you sail all of them without issue.

[Cruzygang]

Here is some reality from CDC april 9

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/cruises/2020/04/09/coronavirus-cdc-extends-no-sail-order-cruise-ships/5128291002

[Jobeth66]

1 hour ago, JAMESCC said:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america Please check out this website. This virus is going to start to wind down. By June its down to nothing. By May here in NJ it will be down to nothing. I think people are overstating how long cruise lines will be down. Now hopefully we don't get a really bad second wave next fall or winter. Hopefully scientists and docs around the world get a handle in this dam virus before then. 

 

It may be winding down in NJ but it may be ramping up elsewhere.  No way the order declaring this a public health emergency is lifted anytime soon.  It may no longer be a pandemic, but it will still be a health emergency.

 

And if the ships build themselves some hospital space on board with trained doctors, PPE, ventilators, and a plan with advance approval that gives the name of facilities who have agreed to take any COVID-19 patients in advance of any infection as required by the CDC order, along with robust testing plans for all passengers and staff, then they MIGHT see something before this order expires (those are the requirements in the order).  I don't see it happening.  No hospitals in Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Tampa, New York, Baltimore, San Francisco, Seattle, etc. are going to agree in advance to take an unknown number of patients from an unknown number of ships with an unknown exposure and unknown prognosis, at least not in the next 3 months.

[JAMESCC]

10 minutes ago, Jobeth66 said:

 

It may be winding down in NJ but it may be ramping up elsewhere.  No way the order declaring this a public health emergency is lifted anytime soon.  It may no longer be a pandemic, but it will still be a health emergency.

 

And if the ships build themselves some hospital space on board with trained doctors, PPE, ventilators, and a plan with advance approval that gives the name of facilities who have agreed to take any COVID-19 patients in advance of any infection as required by the CDC order, along with robust testing plans for all passengers and staff, then they MIGHT see something before this order expires (those are the requirements in the order).  I don't see it happening.  No hospitals in Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Tampa, New York, Baltimore, San Francisco, Seattle, etc. are going to agree in advance to take an unknown number of patients from an unknown number of ships with an unknown exposure and unknown prognosis, at least not in the next 3 months.

Please check the website above. Its going to winding down nation wide in the next month or so. 

[Jobeth66]

12 minutes ago, JAMESCC said:

Please check the website above. Its going to winding down nation wide in the next month or so. 

 

Did you read the header on that?  It's going to be winding down ASSUMING full social distancing country-wide until the end of May.  That's a heck of an assumption, and I don't think anyone will agree that's going to be the case, since there are some states that still aren't requiring social distancing, and many citizens who are refusing to practice it even where it is required, and we have an executive who wants the country opened back up sooner rather than later.

 

Those numbers are idealistically, pie-in-the-sky best-case scenario, and entirely unlikely.

Edited April 10, 2020 by Jobeth66

[zekekelso]

15 hours ago, JAMESCC said:

Then they all go out of business. That is the consequence of "leaving ship parked till there is a vaccine". 

 

Hopefully we will all be cruising before the lines go bankrupt. But if public health dictates the ships stay parked, then the ships stay parked and the stockholders and bond holders lose money. We don’t send the ships out early just to protect some investors. 

[JAMESCC]

11 minutes ago, zekekelso said:

 

Hopefully we will all be cruising before the lines go bankrupt. But if public health dictates the ships stay parked, then the ships stay parked and the stockholders and bond holders lose money. We don’t send the ships out early just to protect some investors. 

I could not care less about "investors". Do you have any idea how many people, jobs rely on the cruise lines? There are too many categories to go through its that many. I agree not to sail till its safe, I just don't think its 2030 before that happens like most of the pessimistic ones around here think. NO CRUISES TILL A VACCINE! OH MY GOD NO CRUISES TILL A VACCINE. I mean come on guys. 

[DaniDanielle]

James, take a deep breath and stay positive.  Hope to see you in September!  Not if Doctors note is still needed though ☹️

[Milwaukee Eight]

14 minutes ago, JAMESCC said:

I could not care less about "investors". Do you have any idea how many people, jobs rely on the cruise lines? There are too many categories to go through its that many. I agree not to sail till its safe, I just don't think its 2030 before that happens like most of the pessimistic ones around here think. NO CRUISES TILL A VACCINE! OH MY GOD NO CRUISES TILL A VACCINE. I mean come on guys. 

And then there are those that will refuse the vaccine. 

[A&L_Ont]

14 hours ago, RBKL said:

Where is Bob?

He picked the one time to retire from hosting CC.

[Charles4515]

And then there are those that will refuse the vaccine. 

The cruise lines could require proof of vaccination to cruise.


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[Jobeth66]

1 minute ago, Charles4515 said:

 

The cruise lines could require proof of vaccination to cruise.


Sent from my iPhone using Forums

 

 

Could, and should.  If people don't want to vaccinate, they shouldn't be allowed to cruise.  Even if they can't vaccinate for whatever reason, they shouldn't be allowed to cruise.  The risks are too high.

[molly361]

14 hours ago, RBKL said:

Where is Bob?

He retired from hosting and apparently fell off the grid😇

[Milwaukee Eight]

5 minutes ago, A&L_Ont said:

He picked the one time to retire from hosting CC.

I’ve seen him pop up on a few posts mostly related to C&A. His name is all in lower case. 

[JAMESCC]

21 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

And then there are those that will refuse the vaccine. 

And that is scarier than the virus itself. 😔

[Baron Barracuda]

2 hours ago, JAMESCC said:

Well new and FCC bookings for 2021 are up 9% from last year. A certain Travel agency CEO I follow said the last few weeks have been the biggest booking weeks of his entire career. Surprised him, surprised me more. He said was a mix of brand new bookings and use of FCC. Either way people want to sail. The prediction of the demise of cruises is unwarranted. Just my opinion. 

 

Shouldn't be surprised bookings are up.  As we speed towards 20%+ unemployment lots of folks will have free time to cruise.  And I'm sure they're itching to spend all  that money they made in the stock market this year.

[HBE4]

1 hour ago, JAMESCC said:

Well new and FCC bookings for 2021 are up 9% from last year. A certain Travel agency CEO I follow said the last few weeks have been the biggest booking weeks of his entire career. Surprised him, surprised me more. He said was a mix of brand new bookings and use of FCC. Either way people want to sail. The prediction of the demise of cruises is unwarranted. Just my opinion. 

 

At least your opinion is based on facts.  Many other people seem to be reacting based on fear and confusion, not facts. Which is understandable given the non-stop, 24/7 bombardment of negative news, all of which is COVID-19. Is there any other news out there?

 

Most projection models show that we are peaking now and the curve will bottom out by end of May/early June. Estimates of number of cases and number of deaths are constantly being revised downward. There are hopeful signs that Spain and Italy are on the downward slope. China has emerged from a 10-week lock down and I doubt the US will need that long.  My reasoning: China is a far more dense country where the concept of "personal space" does not existent, plus they where much higher up the curve before the lock down. It took 3 months before they reacted while New York took 3 weeks from the first known case. Although there is some new evidence that the virus was around in mid-February in NYC.

 

I can see less affected parts of the country emerging from lock down mid-May with most of the country open for business by summer.   I say there is a 50-50 chance some limited cruising begins on July. Those waiting from a vaccine will wait a long time.  Who is to say how effective a vaccine will be? Some flu vaccines are only 60% effective.

 

Ignore the doom-n-gloomers. Some people thrive on the chaos of a disaster and come crawling out of the woodwork declaring the end of the world.  The cruise lines will survive.  Carnival has enough cash on hand to last until March 2021, assuming the current burn rate of $500 million per month. I'll try to find the link.

 

Lest people think I'm downplaying the pandemic, I live an hour north of NYC and know many people affected by this....people who tested positive, including one who has passed, health care workers, etc. And I don't even have a cruise booked to look forward to!

 

[JAMESCC]

25 minutes ago, HBE4 said:

 

At least your opinion is based on facts.  Many other people seem to be reacting based on fear and confusion, not facts. Which is understandable given the non-stop, 24/7 bombardment of negative news, all of which is COVID-19. Is there any other news out there?

 

Most projection models show that we are peaking now and the curve will bottom out by end of May/early June. Estimates of number of cases and number of deaths are constantly being revised downward. There are hopeful signs that Spain and Italy are on the downward slope. China has emerged from a 10-week lock down and I doubt the US will need that long.  My reasoning: China is a far more dense country where the concept of "personal space" does not existent, plus they where much higher up the curve before the lock down. It took 3 months before they reacted while New York took 3 weeks from the first known case. Although there is some new evidence that the virus was around in mid-February in NYC.

 

I can see less affected parts of the country emerging from lock down mid-May with most of the country open for business by summer.   I say there is a 50-50 chance some limited cruising begins on July. Those waiting from a vaccine will wait a long time.  Who is to say how effective a vaccine will be? Some flu vaccines are only 60% effective.

 

Ignore the doom-n-gloomers. Some people thrive on the chaos of a disaster and come crawling out of the woodwork declaring the end of the world.  The cruise lines will survive.  Carnival has enough cash on hand to last until March 2021, assuming the current burn rate of $500 million per month. I'll try to find the link.

 

Lest people think I'm downplaying the pandemic, I live an hour north of NYC and know many people affected by this....people who tested positive, including one who has passed, health care workers, etc. And I don't even have a cruise booked to look forward to!

 

This, right here. Yes, this post. This dude is just much smarter than me to put things into better perspective. 

 

Look at the numbers on the website I provided. When i started tracking it, the number of deaths was 93,000 and now its 60,000. Sad as hell, sad but things are gonna improve in the timeline provided in the post above. 

[Charles4515]

 

 

I can see less affected parts of the country emerging from lock down mid-May with most of the country open for business by summer.   I say there is a 50-50 chance some limited cruising begins on July. Those waiting from a vaccine will wait a long time.  Who is to say how effective a vaccine will be? Some flu vaccines are only 60% effective.

 

Ignore the doom-n-gloomers. Some people thrive on the chaos of a disaster and come crawling out of the woodwork declaring the end of the world.  The cruise lines will survive.  Carnival has enough cash on hand to last until March 2021, assuming the current burn rate of $500 million per month. I'll try to find the link.

 

 

 

Parts of the country coming out of lockdown does not equal cruising restarting. Cruising is not a necessity. Given that the CDC has determined that cruise ship travel spreads Covid 19 the suspension of the cruise industry could continue many months longer than lockdowns

 

“.....the Director of CDC (“Director”) finds that cruise ship travel exacerbates the global spread of COVID-19 and that the scope of this pandemic is inherently and necessarily a problem that is international and interstate in nature and has not been controlled sufficiently by the cruise ship industry or individual State or local health authorities. As described in the March 14, 2020 Order, cruise ship travel markedly increases the risk and impact of the COVID-19 disease outbreak within the United States.”

 

Then there are the international ports many of which don’t have the resources of the US. Would they be willing to risk cruise ships bringing in cases of Covid 19?

 

The cruise lines may be able to last until March 2021 according to one analyst. Maybe. Of course the cruise lines want consumers to believe they will survive because they want to keep the deposits and not return them. They want consumers to take FCC vouchers. I hope they do survive. If the current cruise lines don’t survive the ships will survive and eventually cruising will restart but with different operators.

 

 

 

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[Hobby3333]

1 hour ago, JAMESCC said:

Please check the website above. Its going to winding down nation wide in the next month or so. 

June, if everything goes well.  A tad too early to open the economy and let people sail before September.  JMO.  A lot still has to be worked out for the ships to sail.

[HBE4]

14 minutes ago, Charles4515 said:

Parts of the country coming out of lockdown does not equal cruising restarting. Cruising is not a necessity. Given that the CDC has determined that cruise ship travel spreads Covid 19 the suspension of the cruise industry could continue many months longer than lockdowns

 

Totally agree. That's why I gave it a 50-50 chance of limited cruising starting in mid-July, 2 months after I see parts of the country re-opening.

 

Even without the recent CDC ruling, the cruise lines face certain challenges.  How many ports will be open?  Can they adequately staff a ship to ensure a safe and enjoyable sailing? Can they implement the necessary safety protocols?  As with so many other companies, I'm sure the cruise lines have several different scenario's (worst case, best case, middle case) in the works before restarting. 

 

I'd expect some of the less profitable ships/itineraries will be eliminated.  I'd expect to see the big ships plying the waters of the Caribbean.

Edited April 10, 2020 by HBE4

[molly361]

1 hour ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

I’ve seen him pop up on a few posts mostly related to C&A. His name is all in lower case. 

According to his profile his last post was January 26  Same day he fell off the grid😇

Edited April 10, 2020 by molly361

[adidas5676]

57 minutes ago, HBE4 said:

 

At least your opinion is based on facts.  Many other people seem to be reacting based on fear and confusion, not facts. Which is understandable given the non-stop, 24/7 bombardment of negative news, all of which is COVID-19. Is there any other news out there?

 

Most projection models show that we are peaking now and the curve will bottom out by end of May/early June. Estimates of number of cases and number of deaths are constantly being revised downward. There are hopeful signs that Spain and Italy are on the downward slope. China has emerged from a 10-week lock down and I doubt the US will need that long.  My reasoning: China is a far more dense country where the concept of "personal space" does not existent, plus they where much higher up the curve before the lock down. It took 3 months before they reacted while New York took 3 weeks from the first known case. Although there is some new evidence that the virus was around in mid-February in NYC.

 

I can see less affected parts of the country emerging from lock down mid-May with most of the country open for business by summer.   I say there is a 50-50 chance some limited cruising begins on July. Those waiting from a vaccine will wait a long time.  Who is to say how effective a vaccine will be? Some flu vaccines are only 60% effective.

 

Ignore the doom-n-gloomers. Some people thrive on the chaos of a disaster and come crawling out of the woodwork declaring the end of the world.  The cruise lines will survive.  Carnival has enough cash on hand to last until March 2021, assuming the current burn rate of $500 million per month. I'll try to find the link.

 

Lest people think I'm downplaying the pandemic, I live an hour north of NYC and know many people affected by this....people who tested positive, including one who has passed, health care workers, etc. And I don't even have a cruise booked to look forward to!

 

There is a huge difference in being "pessimistic" and "realistic".  Realistically, we are nowhere near a plateau.  I live in Florida, where there are multiple cruise ports.  Here in Florida we are gaining 800-1000 new cases per day still, and dozens of deaths per day.  There will not be any cruising until this number starts to DECREASE, not increase.  We are expected to head into our projected "worst" 2 weeks in terms of cases and deaths and expected to hit our "peak" by the end of the month.  That is, if everyone continues to follow the guidelines of social distance.  And that's not to say that we can just open up again right after that.  All of this will take time.  I'm not "doom and gloom", but I've worked in healthcare and this is not just going to poof disappear from wishful thinking.