Are we seeing the end of cruising?

[Roberto256]

5 hours ago, Diver2014 said:

 There are plenty of folks chomping at the bit to get back on a ship, me included.

 

Plenty of people HERE ON CRUISECRITIC.

 

But, these are the diehards.

 

Even Carnival Corp has said that some of its ships will be in prolonged layup for an extended time.

Certainly doesn't sound like every ship is going to start sailing on September 1st.

 

 

 

[getting older slowly]

38 minutes ago, DiamondFour said:

That goes for everywhere in the world. Society cannot and will not continue like this and there is a tipping point for everything. If governments drag this out too long then there will be civil unrest, mass protests and uprisings against the authorities, if governments have a plan and people cooperate then things will return to normal quicker. Governments around the world know this and at some point we will see a return to normal vaccine or no vaccine and this virus will just run its course.

 

Pretty much spot on..... some people... will not be told what to do.....

 

We have seen here in Australia.. one state opened shopping mall... it was busier than Christmas....

traffic on the road is increasing... lots of people not following social distancing....  people are openly saying they are not following the lockdown  .

 

Then there is the cost to small businesses many whom have all ready closed......

 

Cruising does seam some what Irrelevant in the current  situation 

 

Where is no harm in having a dream 

 

Don..........  

[HappyInVan]

55 minutes ago, npcl said:

The stat on actual bed use.  But that stat does not indicate just how stressed the hospitals in NYC got and how close the sytem came to collapsing, even with all of the social distancing restrictions.

 

https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-local-correspondents/the-coronavirus-pandemic-peaks-in-new-yorks-hospitals

 

 

 

 

Thanks for the read. Yes, the ER was being overrun, and personnel would have been dropping from fatigue in another few days. Peaked just in time. Well done Cuomo!

 

"“I used to tell people, ‘Come back if you have trouble breathing or if your abdominal pain gets worse,’ ” he said. “Now my return precautions are, ‘Come back if you’re so short of breath that you can’t finish a sentence. Or you’re coughing up more than a tablespoon of blood... I was like, ‘Wow. Maybe we finally have a case that’s not covid-19!’ The man turned out to be in diabetic ketoacidosis, brought on by the virus."

 

It's pretty frightening the way covid works as a co-morbidity. I suspect that viewers of Fantasy News network won't get the true picture.

 

 

[HappyInVan]

6 hours ago, Diver2014 said:

There are plenty of folks chomping at the bit to get back on a ship, me included.

 

So am I. Just made Diamond at MSC.

 

But, you can't ignore an epidemic. There is no safety on a vessel or in rural areas...

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/03/small-towns-and-rural-hospitals-brace-for-their-coronavirus-peak-which-could-be-weeks-away.html

 

Over here, there are morons who have sailed their boats to remote communities. "Stay Away" says the locals. Their hospital has only one ventilator (or none). They have meager supplies of PPE. Locals have closed their stores to discourage visitors.

 

Covid might not have arrived in your neighborhood. But, it will in this present climate. The OP has a legitimate concern. IMO, we will be practicing safety protocols for a long time.

 

Meanwhile, Norway ( 219 deaths) will be reopening.

 

"Norway to reopen high schools, bars and most of society by mid-June"

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/07/norway-to-reopen-high-schools-bars-and-most-of-society-by-mid-june.html

 

 

 

 

[npcl]

1 hour ago, HappyInVan said:

 

So am I. Just made Diamond at MSC.

 

But, you can't ignore an epidemic. There is no safety on a vessel or in rural areas...

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/03/small-towns-and-rural-hospitals-brace-for-their-coronavirus-peak-which-could-be-weeks-away.html

 

Over here, there are morons who have sailed their boats to remote communities. "Stay Away" says the locals. Their hospital has only one ventilator (or none). They have meager supplies of PPE. Locals have closed their stores to discourage visitors.

 

Covid might not have arrived in your neighborhood. But, it will in this present climate. The OP has a legitimate concern. IMO, we will be practicing safety protocols for a long time.

 

Meanwhile, Norway ( 219 deaths) will be reopening.

 

"Norway to reopen high schools, bars and most of society by mid-June"

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/07/norway-to-reopen-high-schools-bars-and-most-of-society-by-mid-june.html

 

 

 

 

Of course opening to more normal activities, does not mean opening to tourism.

[Cyrix400]

Hopefully, when cruising resumes, the lessons SO FAR learned from the detailed  Ruby Princess Special Inquiry here in Sydney - will ensure that everybody (local, state, national govts, Health Depts, port authorities and cruise lines) will take a more co-ordinated and organised approach to the future suspected/ serious health issues on cruise ships -  which WILL develop in the covid - present world.

 

Interesting summary of the evidence regarding the  time line re Ruby Princess Inquiry  ( and a lot of missed opportunities & mis-  communication) from the Guardian newspaper is here - easy to read and point form, as well.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/10/anatomy-of-a-cruise-how-the-ruby-princess-came-to-dock-and-disembark-with-coronavirus

 

The title is :  ''Anatomy of a cruise: how the Ruby Princess came to dock and disembark with coronavirus

The inquiry into the management of the ship’s arrival in Sydney in March has revealed a detailed timeline of who knew what and when"

 

[leck57]

8 hours ago, weberman said:

Bottom line for me, I no longer trust Carnival/Princess. They are still taking deposits for future cruises but not returning monies paid in an any way acceptable manner! So I think they have the money, but just hanging on to it.  Lucky for me I always use AMEX and protested and got my money back in two weeks.

 

Good luck to those of you who are still dealing with getting your money back!

 

I won't be surprised if there is a bankruptcy in the not too distant future!

 

Well said. I'm getting very angry about the refund situation which is made worse by not being able to do something about it. Taking people's money for cruises that are no chance is disgraceful. If cruising starts up again I am keen to go but I need refunds paid to have money to book.

[DiamondFour]

4 hours ago, npcl said:

Our parents were asked to go to war in WWII.

 

Now we cannot  even seem to tolerate being asked to wear masks and keep our distance.

Same with mine but in reality a lot of war veterans chose to fight and fought for freedom against the evils of tyranny and all sorts of horrors.

 

Right now our society has hoisted the white flag and surrendered. I am not saying that wearing masks and keeping distance is not the right thing to do. What I am saying is that there are other measures that could have been taken to control, contain and defeat this virus. 

[caribill]

32 minutes ago, DiamondFour said:

 

Right now our society has hoisted the white flag and surrendered. I am not saying that wearing masks and keeping distance is not the right thing to do. What I am saying is that there are other measures that could have been taken to control, contain and defeat this virus. 

 

The stay-at-home requirements together with social distancing when outside the home are intended to reduce the current number of cases to a number that the hospitals can handle (this is the 'flattening of the curve).  It is not intended to reduce the total number of people that will eventually become infected.

 

Basically, the sacrifices you are making today is so that those who catch the virus and need to be hospitalized can actually get treated in hospitals instead of dying due to a lack of hospital resources.

 

Herd immunity will eventually be reached when the number of infected and recovered people is high enough to provide that immunity. It might be reached sooner if an effective vaccine is developed faster.

 

If you stay healthy, having "cabin fever" due to the restrictions is natural. Just be thankful you and your loved ones and friends are not part of the over 75,000 Americans who have lost the war with the virus so far.

 

 

[leck57]

2 hours ago, DiamondFour said:

What I am saying is that there are other measures that could have been taken to control, contain and defeat this virus. 

 

Other than blowing China off the map (not a bad, although unrealistic idea) what measures did you have in mind.

[DiamondFour]

2 hours ago, caribill said:

 

The stay-at-home requirements together with social distancing when outside the home are intended to reduce the current number of cases to a number that the hospitals can handle (this is the 'flattening of the curve).  It is not intended to reduce the total number of people that will eventually become infected.

 

Basically, the sacrifices you are making today is so that those who catch the virus and need to be hospitalized can actually get treated in hospitals instead of dying due to a lack of hospital resources.

 

Herd immunity will eventually be reached when the number of infected and recovered people is high enough to provide that immunity. It might be reached sooner if an effective vaccine is developed faster.

 

If you stay healthy, having "cabin fever" due to the restrictions is natural. Just be thankful you and your loved ones and friends are not part of the over 75,000 Americans who have lost the war with the virus so far.

 

 

Yes I understand what that is doing and that sort of scenario I do not object to however I am here in Australia and things are slightly different. While we have only 6,900 cases and 97 dead we do have 24 million who have not been diagnosed with it. In short we have 99.971% of our population who have not caught the virus being forced to socially isolate and sit at home and do nothing.

 

There are areas of our country that have not been touched by the virus. One would think a simpler solution would be to call up the military and reserves to isolate cities and towns and allow some cities to go about their day to day business, provide rapid testing, block the in and out access to safe towns and identify the virus infected zones. Once identified go harder on the areas that have the infections for their own safety while the towns and cities that are free of the virus are able to provide valuable support in terms of supplies, emergency medical device construction and keeping the country running. Slow down travel around the country and quarantine and isolate before changing cities if you are returning from holidays or business.

 

What this virus has done is put millions out of work who do not need to be. It has increased the suicide risk due to insecurity and unemployment, domestic violence and breakups have increased, bankruptcies, business closures.

 

I believe there are over 328 million people in America and your infection rate is 0.5% of your population. Now don't get me wrong we do not want this to spread, but sidelining the healthy all because of the sick is a bad idea and everyone suffers. I think if the healthy cities can be identified then those healthy people are an asset who can provide valuable support to keep the country running while the sick are identified, treated and the virus is tackled.

 

Now I may be fantasising or out of my league, but that is my thoughts on this. It is clear my government (Australia) did not have a a plan or clue what to do with this and it is just good luck that we were quick off the mark to ban all chinese and people from entering from mainland china from entering our country early on. That was our saving grace that kept the beast out of our country.

[DiamondFour]

10 minutes ago, leck57 said:

 

Other than blowing China off the map (not a bad, although unrealistic idea) what measures did you have in mind.

Not a bad idea at all. Wink wink.

 

As above, rapid testing, isolate city by city and allow healthy cities to operate and provide material support to the nation while it treats the sick and tackles the virus. That is the essence of my post above. Rapid testing, quarantine, isolation and fast recovery for healthy zones and no restrictions for healthy zones.

[Luckiestmanonearth]

On 5/8/2020 at 6:04 PM, ontheweb said:

It does seem from reading these boards that a lot of people intend to return to cruising. It is even reported on the Carnival boards that the August cruises seem to be sold out.

Are we really all sure there are capacity controls in place for these August sailings 

 

Every time I’ve received an email from the cruise companies telling me all the safety measure they put in place like sanitization and temperature screening, it never says anything about controlling the number of passengers on board for each sailing.

 

This makes me nervous that their plan is to sail with as many passengers as possible and you’ll never know until you board.

 

Is this a risk you’re willing to take ?  Or do we expect more commitment and transparency from the cruise lines to define what controlled capacity means up front

 

[Luckiestmanonearth]

9 hours ago, ontheweb said:

 

No absolutely not. I realize NY City and its suburbs are the epicenter of the disease now. We live less than 100 miles from there and both DW and dread the fact that our area this summer may be inundated with visitors from those areas.

 

The point I kept trying to make was that the need for hospital beds was grossly overestimated.

The global population continues to grow and people seem to want to cram themselves in these large metropolises .  But that pales in comparison on how the cruise industry has exploded over the last 40 years

 

 

World (Billions)

1980 4.4

2018 7.6 (+73% since 1980)

 

Cruisers (millions)

1980 1.4

2018 28.2 (+2014% since 1980)

 

This is why this virus has take such a stronghold in New York and other large cities, as well as in the cruise industry 

 

[ontheweb]

2 hours ago, Luckiestmanonearth said:

Are we really all sure there are capacity controls in place for these August sailings 

 

Every time I’ve received an email from the cruise companies telling me all the safety measure they put in place like sanitization and temperature screening, it never says anything about controlling the number of passengers on board for each sailing.

 

This makes me nervous that their plan is to sail with as many passengers as possible and you’ll never know until you board.

 

Is this a risk you’re willing to take ?  Or do we expect more commitment and transparency from the cruise lines to define what controlled capacity means up front

 

•  

I never said I was willing to take that risk now. (And even if I was, DW would literally kill me before she would allow it.) What I did post was that there seemed to be many who were based on the August Carnival sailings are filling up. Even if it is with reduced capacity (which as you pointed out we really don't know), that is still a lot willing to take that risk. And add to that number those who have posted that they have tried to book but have been told that the ships are sold out.

[AF-1]

The CEO of Carnival stated that when they do start cruising again they will not sell inside cabins and limit the oceanview cabins.  So most people would sail in balcony cabins.  That tells me the capacity for ships will be down quite a bit; at least at the start.

[PrincessLuver]

16 hours ago, Diver2014 said:

Yeah, it would be nice to discuss when we can go cruising again instead of all these people saying a vaccine will have to be found before the cruise industry can restart.  Ain't gonna happen.  There are plenty of folks chomping at the bit to get back on a ship, me included.

 

People in hell want ice cream too......it's CC!!

[Fat Albert]

22 hours ago, ontheweb said:

Just dealing with point #8. The Governor of NY state begged for a naval hospital ship for NY City as the predictions for the need for hospital beds was so dire. He got it, and a few weeks later it was gone as it was not needed at all, having sat there basically unused. And remember this is in the epicenter for the entire world for the virus at the present time.

Almost 5,000 people DIED  from NOT using the SHip. Cuomo Made a terrible decision to NOT use the ship

[AF-1]

Fat Albert;  yea I saw the ship went back to its home base in Virginia

[Cash123]

16 hours ago, Diver2014 said:

Yeah, it would be nice to discuss when we can go cruising again instead of all these people saying a vaccine will have to be found before the cruise industry can restart.  Ain't gonna happen.  There are plenty of folks chomping at the bit to get back on a ship, me included.

We love cruising and were on the last Crown cruise in March before Princess announced the shutdown but am amazed when I read posts like this, I find it hard to believe that anyone would be willing to risk themselves and their familes health in getting on a ship again without either a vaccine or a treatment for Covid-19.

 

Are you really happy to be among anything up to 6000 people where someone may have the virus which would result in a quarantine periord, being denied docking in various ports and not knowing how and when you could return home.

 

I can't get my head around how some people are willing to gamble their money, their vacation plans and most important their lives just to get on a cruise ship.

[PrincessLuver]

11 hours ago, DiamondFour said:

That goes for everywhere in the world. Society cannot and will not continue like this and there is a tipping point for everything. If governments drag this out too long then there will be civil unrest, mass protests and uprisings against the authorities, if governments have a plan and people cooperate then things will return to normal quicker. Governments around the world know this and at some point we will see a return to normal vaccine or no vaccine and this virus will just run its course.

 

COVID-19 is what is in control whether people want to believe it or not.

 

Universal uprisings as you suggest is not necessarily true....the majority of countries so far seem to have populations that are following national guidelines such as stay-at-home orders, social distance, each hands frequently and there are not mass protests and uprisings and are successfully bending the curve.  My family is from Norway and they have successfully done what was asked of them by their government and are basically returning to normal because COVID-19 was suppressed.

 

Even in the US the protests have not really been that major and the majority of the US population supports stay-at-home orders.  Past generations in different countries have proven that people are able to unite against a serious and deadly threat and not mutiny as you suggest when things become uncomfortable.

 

COVID-19 is the new normal for the time being and all the rhetoric about uprisings is really not supported at this time.  

Any chance you have the cure for cancer too?

 

Edited May 10, 2020 by PrincessLuver

[Fat Albert]

21 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

 

To jog your memory, the hospital ship was intended to be used for non-covid cases. In the end, it was not needed because many sick people choose not to go to hospitals. Or, ambulances were not available. Resulting in more deaths from cardiac failure etc. 

 

BTW, there is a study of 'excess deaths' in Italy etc. It estimated that the extra community death was two to four times higher than the official covid number.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lbsbusinessstrategyreview/2020/04/06/how-many-people-have-really-died-from-covid-19/#68a1363d67f7

 

Let's do some numbers for the analytically-challenged.

 

New York state (pop 20m) did lock-down and was able to keep the covid death toll to 21k. San Francisco (881k) went into a stricter shelter-in-place and had 32 deaths. Lets use that as the worst and best scenarios.

 

Governor Cuomo cites one anti-body study as estimating that 14% of the state had been infected. Assuming that 56% infection is needed for herd immunity, that extrapolates up to 84k deaths. Scaling up to the entire population of the USA, that's 1,386,000 deaths in America.

 

Let's scale up for San Francisco;  that's 11,982 deaths. That's a different of 115x (1,374,000 deaths).

 

I hope that when you talk about herd immunity, you understand the implications.
 

JOG YOUR memory too. The Javits center was designated for COVID 19 and Cuomo did not use it. Then the hospital in NY sent 2 patients to the Ship with COVID by mistake. The decsion was then made to use the ship also for COVID patients. The percetnage of deaths in NY was 56% from the Nursing Homes. The Gov Mr Cuomo had made an executive order that all Nursing homes CAN NOT refuse returning patients who were admitted and released fromhospitals as postive for COVID 19. The Gov made that order and 4,800 people died in nursing homes becasue of the order . The statistics so far show that 5 states NY,NJ,IL,MA,and CA make up 54% of the cases and 61% of the deaths. The breakdown for counties inthe US show 52% of teh counties hve zero cases and 80% have 5 cases and 89% of all the counties have had 15 dead.

[Fat Albert]

14 hours ago, By The Bay said:

"Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care."

Source W.H.O.

 source WHO hahaha yeah OK GOT the facts NOW

[Fat Albert]

14 hours ago, PrincessLuver said:

 

Many medical professionals, EMT's, mortuaries, and other essential personnel would probably argue it is overwhelming and that he have not seen the worst yet.  75,000 dead and 25% of the work force is unemployed as of to date and counting.   I would say that is overwhelming for many people and their families.  The immense food  lines just point to how successful the USA has really been!

 

Other countries who did what was advised have not had the deaths we had and most importantly their workers are still working and they are moving back to a less risky way of living because they followed sound medical and scientific advice and national guidelines.

 

We are still not free of COVID-19 as a society no matter how people try and spin it.  For these reasons I think cruise lines returning to any kind of profitability in the near future is a pipe dream.

Other countries? you need to read up on India and Russia and Japan  just those 3 alone .

[BigGuy25]

With 30+ cruises behind us, we’re likely not cruising again until at least 2022. Like barber shops and hairdressers, there will be a flood of passengers who just can’t wait to get back onboard as soon as ships begin sailing again. But, the real test for the cruise industry will come after that big opening rush is over.  My guess is that then it will become more difficult to fill all the cabins until large groups of past passengers feel safe to cruise again. And, it’s likely that the industry will have a much more difficult time attracting NEW passengers who have never sailed before. They, whether it’s factual or not, will feel that cruises are not a safe way to vacation.  Hopefully, time will resolve all these issues and we can all get back to-sea, and traveling the way that we all enjoy so much!