Will Florida cruises start back up in August?

[time4u2go]

I would be inclined to agree with you except for the fact that the rate is increasing 

[Mark52479]

increase of ACTUAL CASES at this point means nothing.

 

Officials are no longer looking at that number.

 

on Saturday there were 52,000 tests done in one day.  Out of that 52,000 only 2,000 were positive.  4.4% positive rate WELL BELOW the CDC recommendations. This is the number officials look at NOT actual cases. 

[time4u2go]

3 minutes ago, Mark52479 said:

increase of ACTUAL CASES at this point means nothing.

 

Officials are no longer looking at that number.

 

on Saturday there were 52,000 tests done in one day.  Out of that 52,000 only 2,000 were positive.  4.4% positive rate WELL BELOW the CDC recommendations. This is the number officials look at NOT actual cases. 

Exactly! And that number is trending up. 

[PhillyFan33579]

7 minutes ago, time4u2go said:

I would be inclined to agree with you except for the fact that the rate is increasing 

The average positive test rate over the last 14 days in Florida is 7.37%. While that number is an increase, it was expected the number would increase when the state starting to reopen. This is just my opinion, but anything 10% or lower is acceptable assuming the death rate doesn’t significantly increase. 

[time4u2go]

Just now, PhillyFan33579 said:

The average positive test rate over the last 14 days in Florida is 7.37%. While that number is an increase, it was expected the number would increase when the state starting to reopen. This is just my opinion, but anything 10% or lower is acceptable assuming the death rate doesn’t significantly increase. 

Agreed. I just hope it stays low. 

[Milwaukee Eight]

1 hour ago, toad455 said:

 

yeah, the key right now are hospitalizations and death rates. The 3-day death rate(June 12-14) was the lowest combined three day total since late-March. Testing is easily available in NJ and anyone can get tested now, yet NJ's positive rate continues to decrease.

That and the availability of hospital beds. Especially ICU bedS. We forget that we locked down to keep the healthcare system from getting overrun with too many cases to handle. As you can see, a quarantine didn’t Eradicate the virus, just slowed down the spread. Look at China again. It appears that have another outbreak after lockdown. 
 

M8

[Oxo]

 

The supply of available hospital beds in South Florida is getting tighter as a statewide surge in coronavirus is picking up.

 

 

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-coronavirus-hospitalizations-south-florida-20200615-6i3c74vxw5a4jcoljnpkgkmvry-story.html

[Spurschick]

7 hours ago, rimmit said:

Outside of Epcot (and they aren’t using their foreign employees for the world showcase when they reopen) no other businesses have to fly crew in from all over the world to get a ship running.  Crew which they are working incredibly hard to just try and get hoke right now.  The land based resorts also don’t have to stop repatriating their crew and get their hotels back to their home locations.

 

People throughout all of this keep referring to what land based resorts are doing.  That is apples and oranges.  Land based resorts and theme parks are a totally different ball game than cruises.  It’s why many love to cruise but are just “meh” when it comes to land based resorts.  The logistics of a cruise ship are so much more difficult than a land based resort and the social distancing so much harder.  Cruises are basically floating prisons and nursing homes in the eyes of the CDC.  They have that level of transmission rate and despite what we believe in Cruise Critic, they are not essential for the US to operate.

 

Getting on a cruise is ship is doing the EXACT OPPOSITE of what we have learned about the virus regarding mitigating transmission over the last 3 months.  
 

1.) It effects elderly and those with comorbidities significantly more.

2.) It has a significantly higher transmission rate indoors without direct sunlight.  The smaller the indoor space the higher the transmission and higher likelihood of inhaling the virus.  (Think the chance of swallowing a significant amount of someone’s pee in a kiddie pool vs swallowing pee from a specific person in the ocean while on a beach.)

3.) There is significant spread via talking, along with just coughing.

4.). Time of exposure is significant component in transmission.

Theme parks are primarily outdoors with occasional use of indoor spaces.  (Gift shops and restaurants) in which occupancy  can at least on paper be tightly regulated.  Cruise ships are primarily indoor spaces with outdoor decks that are used only in good weather and during the day.  Casinos can also socially distance and they tend to have higher ceilings with better ventilation that’s a cruise ship (that could be debatable given the smoke I always smell) but the point is the per person space ratio is much lower on a land based casino.

 

The fact that as of a week ago the CDC hasn’t even started looking at cruising tells me cruises have a LOOONG way to go before they even remotely come up with a plan that will satisfy the CDC.

I understand cruises are very different, and am not disagreeing with your points.

 

My point was plans were not made public multiple weeks in advance. They also have to address social distancing. Whilst I get more outside space the cleaning of rides and the issue of queues still leads to issues of social distancing. 

My point was even theme parks and casinos had to have plans to reopen approved and did not do seven weeks in advance.

 

From the the videos I saw in Vegas hardly any social distancing, minimal mask wearing and people crowded around tables. 

 

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/06/04/las-vegas-casinos-reopen-with-large-unsafe-crowds-is-it-worth-the-gamble.html

 

And I have seen many more similar videos. Given these establishments have as many people pass through, if not more, as those on some cruise ships I would actually feel safer on a cruise than I would be in that chaos.

 

Also I would expect cruiselines to use their ships to get crew back as opposed to flying them.

Edited June 15, 2020 by Spurschick

[Biker19]

2 minutes ago, Spurschick said:

Also I would expect cruiselines to use their ships to get crew back as opposed to flying them.

Pretty sure the current repatriation of crew by ships is a one time thing - RCI is very unlikely to get most of their ships re-crewed that way.

[sillygirl6]

On 6/4/2020 at 2:50 PM, Joseph2017China said:

COVID cases in Florida are flat.  All major tourist areas are opening  between now and July. Major events are being held in Orlando at the convention center.  Sporting events are coming to Disney wide world of sports.  Florida is in phase 2. 

 

Tourist attractions have gone through reviews already for reopen plans.  There is a plan for cruises, we just don't know them yet.  But cruises will start soon.  August I hope, but it is not know yet. 

 

No cruise line is going to magically turn on the key, and start every cruise on the same day.  But if you are booked from Florida to the Bahamas, that will almost certainly be the first one to go.  Bahamas have a tourism start date in place, and Florida most likely will be at the Phase 3 mark sometime in July, so yes, it is a higher probability now that August might happen. 

 

However, many of the longer multiport trips, might be more complicated to start. 

Look how much has changed since this post - they have steadily increased to record numbers so I'm not confident my December cruise will happen without a vaccine or some kind of test prior to boarding (not a temperature check either) - I'm watching to see how Disney handles their opening - Universal's water park has not been good at all.  No wonder FL numbers are rising. 

[Milwaukee Eight]

2 hours ago, Oxo said:

 

The supply of available hospital beds in South Florida is getting tighter as a statewide surge in coronavirus is picking up.

 

 

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-coronavirus-hospitalizations-south-florida-20200615-6i3c74vxw5a4jcoljnpkgkmvry-story.html

You’re Doom and Gloom. 
 

The Sun Sentinel is one of the biggest liberal rags around. 
 

Elective surgeries were postponed for 6 weeks. Things are catching up. My sources, one of which is an ICU Nurse at Miami-Jackson, says plenty of space. 
 

Source here in Volusia, no run on hospital beds or ICU. 
 

These admissions that the Sun Sentinel has listed, are for the most part non COVID19 cases. We typically see more bed shortages when the snowbirds are here and no COVID19. The hospitals have a routine when beds become an issue and they haven’t rung that bell yet. 

 

SMH again.....  M8

[rimmit]

23 minutes ago, Spurschick said:

I understand cruises are very different, and am not disagreeing with your points.

 

My point was plans were not made public multiple weeks in advance. They also have to address social distancing. Whilst I get more outside space the cleaning of rides and the issue of queues still leads to issues of social distancing. 

My point was even theme parks and casinos had to have plans to reopen approved and did not do seven weeks in advance.

 

From the the videos I saw in Vegas hardly any social distancing, minimal mask wearing and people crowded around tables. 

 

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/06/04/las-vegas-casinos-reopen-with-large-unsafe-crowds-is-it-worth-the-gamble.html

 

And I have seen many more similar videos. Given these establishments have as many people pass through, if not more, as those on some cruise ships I would actually feel safer on a cruise than I would be in that chaos.

 

Also I would expect cruiselines to use their ships to get crew back as opposed to flying them.

Exactly.  No one follows the recs.  The difference is that on paper they can make it work and give the appearance they are doing everything reasonable to mitigate the virus IF people follows directions.

 

the issue is that you can’t even make cruise ships work on paper.  There is just no reasonable way to socially distance a cruise ship on paper.  There are too many choke points and shared venues and not enough space.  
 

The fact no one is following directions on land where they have easy access to hospitals and medical care is likely not exactly making the CDC very comfortable sending a ship which is basically a Covid Petri dish out into the ocean with everyone breaking every recommendation they made.   Then requiring quarantined when they come back on land.

 

The videos of Vegas and all the other venues in which social distancing is not being followed is definitely not making the CDC think “Well, since Vegas is open, and no one is following the rules....  might as well let the ships sail and what happens, happens.”  
 

In regards to plans being known, Disney, let their plans be known about 7 weeks out from when they would reopen Disney world, and they didn’t even need to bring crew in back from around the country.  Cruises need more lead time than a land based resort where their employees all just happen to live in an easily commutable area.  The commute from India and the Philippines is quite a ways away.  
 

If they use their ships to get crew back they will need an even bigger lead time.  It takes weeks to get a ship from India and the Philippines to the Caribbean which is where they will restart cruising.

[bigrednole]

The real number that only matters is the number of cases that require a hospital stay of several days on a respirator. Having Covid-19 and testing positive is 100% meaningless. The reason is many people have absolutely no symptoms. Many people have antibodies and the CDC and other scientists can't figure out how or why. Yes, some people are devastated by getting it but the largest part of the population is not affected. At some point we have to draw the line and decide to live with it while they look for a vaccine. We have no cure for the common cold. We have no cure for the flu. The flu shot is simply a theoretical hope that they pick the right strands for the annual flu shots. Yes we have more technology, but if technology was the answer, cancer would be gone. So, it comes down to the question: Are you living to die or living to live? 

[Mark52479]

To also add,

 

It has been reported that Florida is now also adding anyone who tests positive for the antibody, as a positive case.  Another reason numbers have been going up.  

[Oxo]

1 hour ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

You’re Doom and Gloom. 
 

The Sun Sentinel is one of the biggest liberal rags around. 
 

Source here in Volusia, no run on hospital beds or ICU. 
 

These admissions that the Sun Sentinel has listed, are for the most part non COVID19 cases. We typically see more bed shortages when the snowbirds are here and no COVID19. The hospitals have a routine when beds become an issue and they haven’t rung that bell yet. 

 

SMH again.....  M8

Sorry,  not D&G! I only share what I read. If your newspaper is wrong, take them to court or file a law suit stating so. 

Don't understand what SMH again means. 

M8 must be some gang in your state. LOL

[Starry Eyes]

5 hours ago, Oxo said:

 

The supply of available hospital beds in South Florida is getting tighter as a statewide surge in coronavirus is picking up.

 

 

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-coronavirus-hospitalizations-south-florida-20200615-6i3c74vxw5a4jcoljnpkgkmvry-story.html

Please remember that hospital and intensive care beds are not just for Covid 19 patients.   Hospitals have now re-started elective procedures and patients have started to return for these postponed procedures; sometimes some of those procedures may require an hospital and even an ICU stay.  Of course hospital occupancy has move back toward a more normal level.  If Covid 19 demands more beds in the future, elective procedures could be cancelled again.

[Oxo]

I don't write the news. I am only sharing what I read about Florida.

Florida is important to me since I have 2 cruises booked out of Florida in Nov. I also care about people dieing fur ro thre virtuous. Right now 116,029 have died. People are not following the rules, per mayor in Miami. Social distance and wear masks! 

 

If the media is reporting incorrect numbers, what can I say? 

I don't know what media is this or that. If you do, great. Bypass those shares that though don't like or believe. 

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article243539937.html

Happy Cruising!

[time4u2go]

3 hours ago, bigrednole said:

The real number that only matters is the number of cases that require a hospital stay of several days on a respirator. Having Covid-19 and testing positive is 100% meaningless. The reason is many people have absolutely no symptoms. Many people have antibodies and the CDC and other scientists can't figure out how or why. Yes, some people are devastated by getting it but the largest part of the population is not affected. At some point we have to draw the line and decide to live with it while they look for a vaccine. We have no cure for the common cold. We have no cure for the flu. The flu shot is simply a theoretical hope that they pick the right strands for the annual flu shots. Yes we have more technology, but if technology was the answer, cancer would be gone. So, it comes down to the question: Are you living to die or living to live? 

Does anyone have any concrete statistics on this?  Some have shared anecdotal evidence, but I haven't yet seen specific state-wide statistics.

[Oxo]

6 minutes ago, time4u2go said:

Does anyone have any concrete statistics on this?  Some have shared anecdotal evidence, but I haven't yet seen specific state-wide statistics.

What do you consider concrete statistics and specific state-wide statistics?  

There are many sources (Google) on this. 

[time4u2go]

Just now, Oxo said:

What do you consider concrete statistics and specific state-wide statistics?  

There are many sources (Google) on this. 

Numbers provided by a state agency, such as the Florida Department of Health.

 

I have googled it, and all I can find are single instance articles that discuss how many (or how few) hospitalizations occurred at a specific time.  I have been unable to find trends or historical data showing how many people have required a hospital stay of several days on a respirator.

[mugtech]

2 hours ago, Oxo said:

Sorry,  not D&G! I only share what I read. If your newspaper is wrong, take them to court or file a law suit stating so. 

Don't understand what SMH again means. 

M8 must be some gang in your state. LOL

SMH = shake my head

[grandgeezer]

I don’t know why everybody is getting so excited about this. Believe what you want but it makes no difference. The powers to be will make the decision for you based on the facts they deem more creditable. Hopefully they will take the politics and emotions out of it and make the right decision, whatever that might be.

[mac_tlc]

3 hours ago, Mark52479 said:

To also add,

 

It has been reported that Florida is now also adding anyone who tests positive for the antibody, as a positive case.  Another reason numbers have been going up.  

And another reason the Florida numbers don't help determine the spread of the virus. There are so many sources of info/opinions. I like to go to a reputable source, not any news outlet or newspaper whose job it is to get me interested in their product. From John Hopkins, entire discussion of positivity rates across the country at  https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/testing-positivity  :

 

When states report testing numbers for COVID-19 infection, they should not include serology or antibody tests. Antibody tests are not used to diagnose active COVID-19 infection and they do not provide insights into the number of cases of COVID-19 diagnosed or whether viral testing is sufficient to find infections that are occurring within each state. States that include serology tests within their overall COVID-19 testing numbers are misrepresenting their testing capacity and the extent to which they are working to identify COVID-19 infections within their communities. States that wish to track the number of serology tests being performed should report those numbers separately from viral tests performed to diagnose COVID-19.

 

 

[Oxo]

Many people feel the counts reported are not correct,  regardless of source. 

Now we dont know what is real or fake.

Who do we believe or trust?

Maybe we should just wait and see what each cruise line does each day. However will we even trust that? 

Lets just hang tight. Time will tell.

I will no longer share news reports on the Virus to help eliminate all this confusion or erroneous data.

Happy Cruising!

[Oxo]

1 hour ago, mugtech said:

SMH = shake my head

Thanks for clarifying it. I guess I am too old to get all this shortstroke stuff. LOL